ERCOT PUBLIC 10/21/2014 1 2014 RTP Update October 21, 2014.

ERCOT PUBLIC10/21/2014 1

2014 RTP UpdateOctober 21, 2014


Outline

Reliability Analysis summary

Economic Analysis results

RTP update


Reliability Analysis Summary

2014 RTP studied the summer peak cases of 2015, 2017, 2019 and 2020

N-1, G-1 + N-1 and X-1 + N-1 SCOPF studies were performed to identify

reliability criteria violations

Sensitivity cases analyzed for following scenarios

A scenario with Dallas-Fort Worth area generation with no Selective

Catalytic Reduction (SCR) removed from service

A scenario with Frontera generation removed from service for

summer peak cases of years 2017, 2019 and 2020.

Sensitivity case analysis to be completed

Scenario to study west Texas wind generation out of service

Scenario to study Coastal wind generation out of service

Billo, Jeffrey

wind out of service? or zero


Noteworthy 345-kV projects in 2014 RTP

345/138-kV autotransformer additions at Fisher Road Switch, Hicks

Switch, Jewett, Jordan, Twin Buttes, Clear Springs and San Miguel

and Rothwood substations.

345/138-kV autotransformer upgrades at Odessa and Renner

substations.

345-kV line from Zorn to Marion addition (currently under RPG review)

345-kV line upgrade of Sandow Switch to Austrop double circuit line

Significant 345 kV projects identified in earlier studies

Upgrade of Trinidad to Watermill, Lake Creek to Tradinghouse to

Sam Switch, and Big Brown to Navarro 345-kV transmission lines.

Addition of 345/138-kV autotransformers at Fowlerton, Lobo,

South McAllen and Twin Buttes substations.


Reliability Analysis Summary

Voltage Level (kV) 345 138 69 Total

Transformer Addition 12 3 - 15

Transformer Upgrade 5 6 - 11

Transmission Line Addition 1 5 1 7

Transmission Line Upgrade/Reconfiguration

7 55 15 77

Voltage Level (kV) Year Required

2015 (CMP needed) 2017 2019 2020

345 11 8 4 2

138 31 15 20 3

69 6 4 5 1

Total 48 27 29 6


Economic Analysis Update

2014 RTP economic analysis is being run for years 2017 and 2020.

N-1 Secure case obtained after reliability analysis was used as a start

case

All transmission projects identified in the 2014 RTP Reliability

Analysis were added to the start cases

List of generators meeting PG 6.9 requirement was updated

Latest fuel price information (from LTSA current trends) was used in

the analysis

Fonterra generation was modeled as unavailable to ERCOT in the

start case


Next steps

Preparing mitigation plans for 2015 violation

Finish running sensitivity analysis

Draft-RTP report sent out for TSP review and

feedback

Complete economic analysis


Next steps


Gen meeting PG 6.9 requirements added to economic analysis

Generation Unit MW for Grid Fuel County 2017 2020

South Clay Windfarm 200 Wind Clay X X

Rattlesnake Wind Ph 1 211 Wind Glasscock X X

Antelope Station 359 Gas Hale X X

Logans Gap Wind I 200 Wind Comanche X X

Lamar Power Projects Upgrade

130 Gas Lamar X X

Sandow Unit 5 30 Coal Milam X X


Gen meeting PG 6.9 Requirement added to reliability cases

Generation Unit MW for Grid Fuel County 20152017 MIN

2017 2019 2020

Briscoe Wind Farm 150 Wind Briscoe X X X XBaffin (Penascal Wind Farm 3) 202 Wind Kennedy X X X XPanhandle Wind 2 182 Wind Carson X X X X

Midway Farms Wind 161 WindSan

Patricio X X X XPatriot (Petronilla) Wind 178 Wind Nueces X X X XPanda Temple 2 790 Gas Bell X X X XCameron County Wind 165 Wind Cameron X X X X XSpinning Spur Wind Three 194 Wind Oldham X X X X XCPV Rattlesnake Den Ph 1 201 Wind Glasscock X X X X XJumbo Road Wind 300 Wind Castro X X X X XWake Wind 299 Wind Floyd X X X X XStephens Ranch Wind Energy Phase b 177 Wind Borden X X X X XSendero Wind Energy Project 78 Wind Jim Hogg X X X X XGreen Pastures 300 Wind Knox X X X X XMesquite Creek 249 Wind Borden X X X X XLos Vientos III 200 Wind Starr X X X X XWindthorst 2 65 Wind Archer X X X X XHereford Wind 200 Wind Castro X X X X XKeechi Wind 138 kV Joplin 102 Wind Jack X X X X XGrandview 1to3 (Conway Windfarm) 600 Wind Carson X X X X X


Gen meeting PG 6.9 Requirement added to reliability cases

Generation Unit MW for Grid Fuel County 20152017 MIN

2017 2019 2020

Longhorn Energy Center 361 Wind Briscoe X X X X XRoute66 Wind 150 Wind Randall X X X X XBarilla Solar 30 Solar Pecos X X X X X

Stephens Ranch Wind Energy Phase 1 201 Wind Borden X X X X XOCI Alamo 4 38 Solar Kinney X X X X XPanda Temple 1 790 Gas Bell X X X X XPanda Sherman Power 809 Gas Grayson X X X X X

Rentech Project 15 Gas Harris X X X X XFerguson Replacement Project 570 Gas Llano X X X X XMiami Wind 1 Project 289 Wind Gray X X X X X

Panhandle Wind 1 218 Wind Carson X X X X X

Deer Park Energy Center 192 Gas Harris X X X X XSpinning Spur Wind Two 161 Wind Oldham X X X X X

Channel Energy Center 138/345kV CT 190 Gas Harris X X X X X

PHR Peakers 390 Gas Galveston X X X X X

Baytown Chiller 270 Gas Chambers X X X X X

ERCOT PUBLIC 10/21/2014 1 2014 RTP Update October 21, 2014.

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