ERCOT Monthly Operational Overview ( March 2012 ) April 12, 2012
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Transcript of ERCOT Monthly Operational Overview ( March 2012 ) April 12, 2012
ERCOT Monthly Operational Overview (March 2012)
April 12, 2012
Grid Operations & Planning
3
Content
• Operations– Peak Demand: Actual vs. Forecast On-line Resources: Total at Peak and Wind– CPS1 Monthly Performance– Historical Peak and Minimum Loads– Day-Ahead Load Forecast Performance– Reliability Unit Commitment Capacity (RUC) by weather zone – Generic Transmission Limits (GTLs)– Advisories, Watches and EEAs– Significant System Incidents– Cooling Reservoir Level Update
• Planning Activities– Summary– Generation Interconnection Requests– Wind Capacity
ERCOT PublicApril 12, 2012
4
March 2012 Daily Peak Demand: Hourly Average Actual vs. Forecast, Wind Day-Ahead COPs & On-line Capacity at Peak
Note: All data are hourly averages during the peak load hour obtained from COPs, and EMMS.
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
MW
Actual Peak Load
Actual Online Capacity
Actual Wind Output
ERCOT Load Day-Ahead Forecast
Wind Day-Ahead COPs
Peak Demand for the Month: 42,711 MW @ 3/31/12 HE 18:00
ERCOT PublicApril 12, 2012
5
March 2012 Actual Wind Output plus Curtailments vs. Wind Day-Ahead COPs for All Hours
Note: QSEs must use the AWST 50% probability of exceedance forecast as the HSL in their COPs
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
MW
Operating DayDaily Averaged Aggregated Wind Output Estimated Wind Curtailment Daily Averaged Day-Ahead COP HSL
% of Hours when Estimated Uncurtailed Wind Output >= COP HSLs (Target = 50%)
52%
ERCOT PublicApril 12, 2012
6
March 2012 ERCOT’s CPS1 Monthly Performance
100
110
120
130
140
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160
170
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
CP
S1
Av
era
ge
Monthly Average 12 Month Rolling Average
CPS1 12 Month Rolling Average = 152.45%
ERCOT PublicApril 12, 2012
7
March 2012 Monthly Peak Actual Demand
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
MW
Month
2011
2012Peak Demand is Peak Interval Demand
ERCOT PublicApril 12, 2012
8
March 2012 Monthly Minimum Actual Demand
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
MW
Month
2011
2012Minimum Demand is Valley Interval Demand
ERCOT PublicApril 12, 2012
9
Day-Ahead Load Forecast Performance in March 2012
Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) for ERCOT Mid-Term Load Forecast (MTLF) Run at 14:00 Day Ahead
2009MAPE
2010MAPE
2011MAPE
2012MAPE
March 2012MAPE
AverageAnnual MAPE
3.11 2.83 2.83 2.98 3.49
LowestMonthly
MAPE1.93 2.24 1.63 2.51
LowestDailyMAPE
1.43Mar – 23
HighestMonthly
MAPE 4.11 3.79 3.55 3.49
Highest DailyMAPE
6.16Mar – 26
ERCOT PublicApril 12, 2012
10
Reliability Unit Commitment (RUC) Capacity by weather zone in March 2012
2
1
2
1
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
FAR WEST NORTH
Days
Weather Zone
RUC Commitments by Weather Zone
Unit-Days RUC Total Days
ERCOT PublicApril 12, 2012
11
March 2012 Generic Transmission Limits (GTLs)
GTL: A transmission flow limit more constraining than a Transmission Element’s normal limit established to constrain flow between geographic areas of the ERCOT Transmission System that is used to enforce stability and voltage constraints that cannot be modeled directly in ERCOT’s transmission security analysis applications.
Note: This table lists how many times a constraint has been activated to avoid exceeding a GTL limit, it does not imply an exceedance of the GTL occurred.
GTLsMar 11DaysGTLs
Jan 12DaysGTLs
Feb 12DaysGTLs
Mar 12DaysGTLs
Last 12 Months
Total Days (Mar11 – Mar12)
North – Houston 0 0 0 0 2
West – North 26 26 17 17Mar(5-8,14-21,24-27,31)
244
Valley Import 3 0 0 0 3
ERCOT PublicApril 12, 2012
12
Advisories and Watches in March 2012
• Advisories issued for Physical Responsive Capability (PRC) below 3000 MW.– Issued 13 Days
• Watches issued for Physical Responsive Capability (PRC) below 2500 MW.– 1 Watch issued for PRC below 2500 MW.
• Transmission Watches– March 8th At 13:32 ERCOT issued a Transmission Watch due to contingency overload.– March 19th At 13:50 ERCOT issued a Transmission Watch due post contingency overload due to forced outages in
Hillsboro area. A TOAP was developed and put in place.– March 26th At 13:56 ERCOT issued a Transmission Watch for the Far West area.– March 27th At 11:31 ERCOT issued a Transmission Watch for the Far West area.– March 29th At 14:47 ERCOT issued a Transmission Watch for the Far West area due to a planned bus outage.
• Energy Emergency Alerts– None
ERCOT PublicApril 12, 2012
13
Cooling Reservoir Levels Update – 01 April 2012
Surface Water & (MW)*Level @ Full Conservation
Pool*Level on
Jan 1, 2011*Level on
Oct 7 , 2011*Level on
Apr 01, 2012
Lake Texana (56) 44.50 41.00 32.81 44.05
Bardwell Lake (312) 421.00 420.71 416.23 425.47
Lake Colorado City (407) 2,070.20 2057.33 2052.4 2,051.70
Lake Ray Hubbard (916) 435.50 432.37 429.22 435.55
Lake Granbury (983) 693.00 691.90 686.27 692.72
Lake Houston (1016) 41.73 42.10 36.76 42.14
Twin Oaks Reservoir (1616) 400 398.87 398.27 401.02
Lake Limestone (1689) 363 359.03 354 363.17
Martin Lake (2425) 306 300.48 295.06 301.68
* In Feet above Mean Sea Level
ERCOT PublicApril 12, 2012
14
Planning Summary – March 2012
· ERCOT is currently tracking 128 active generation interconnection requests totaling over 34,000 MW. This includes over 19,000 MW of wind generation.
• ERCOT is currently reviewing proposed transmission improvements with a total cost of $74.2 Million
• Transmission Projects endorsed in 2012 total $394 Million• All projects (in engineering, routing, licensing and
construction) total approximately $9.84 Billion• Transmission Projects energized in 2012 total about $108.8
million
ERCOT PublicApril 12, 2012
15
County Location of Planned Generation with Interconnection Requests (all fuels) March 2012
ERCOT PublicApril 12, 2012
16
County Location of Planned Generation with Interconnection Requests (Wind) March 2012
ERCOT PublicApril 12, 2012
17
Wind Generation – March 2012
9,838
2,122 2,324 2,444
116
816 977 1,173 1,385 1,854
2,875
4,785
8,005
8,916 9,400 9,604
11,960 12,162 12,282
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
MW
Cumulative MW Installed
Cumulative Planned (Signed Interconnection Agreement)
ERCOT Wind Installations by Year (as of March 31, 2012)
The data presented here is based upon the latest registration data provided to ERCOT by the resource owners and can change without notice. Any capacity changes will be reflected in current and subsequent years' totals. Scheduling delays will also be reflected in the planned projects as that information is received.
This chart now reflects planned units in calendar year of installation rather than installation by peak of year shown
ERCOT PublicApril 12, 2012
18
Generation Interconnection Activity by Fuel – March 2012
0
50
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0
20,000
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60,000
80,000
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120,000
Jan-
06F
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6A
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Jul-0
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ug-0
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ep-0
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l-07
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eb-
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Ma
r-0
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pr-0
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ay-
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Apr
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Jan-
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eb-
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Ma
r-1
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pr-1
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ay-
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n-10
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0A
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Apr
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eb-
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Ma
r-1
2
Pro
ject
Co
un
t
MW
Cap
acit
y
MW Natural Gas MW Nuclear MW Coal MW Wind MW Solar *
MW Biomass * MW Other Total # Projects # Projects Cancelled
* Prior to September 2008, Category "Other" included "Solar" and "Biomass"Projects in all phases of interconnection study are reflected in this graphProject cancellation tracking by month began in March 2008
ERCOT PublicApril 12, 2012
19
Generation Interconnection Activity by Project Phase – March 2012
0
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120,000
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n-06
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r-0
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pr-0
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ay-
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n-07
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7A
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ep-0
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7N
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Fe
b-0
8M
ar-
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Apr
-08
Ma
y-08
Jun-
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Aug
-08
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Jan-
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eb-
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r-0
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pr-0
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ay-
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Jul-0
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n-10
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b-1
0M
ar-
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Apr
-10
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y-10
Jun-
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Aug
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eb-
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Jul-1
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MW
Ca
pa
cit
y
Pro
jec
t Co
un
t# In-Service ** # Full Study Suspended # Signed Interconnect Agreement
# Projects Cancelled *** # Completed Full Study # in Full Study
# Screening Study Complete # Initial Screening Study MW Capacity Under Study *
MW In Commercial Operation **
* Nameplate capacity will change across time due to additional projects, cancellations, expirations, adjustments from study results, and projects being placed in service.
** Having begun commercial operation since January 2006
*** Began tracking cancellations by month in March 2008
ERCOT PublicApril 12, 2012
Market Operations
21
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000 Scheduled Energy Only Offer
Scheduled Three-part Offer
DAM Energy Purchase
RT System Load
DAM Net Flow
MW
Liquidity and activity is normal in Day-Ahead Market
DAM_Net_Flow = Combined market transmission flow of Energy purchased/sold in Day-Ahead Market plus Point-to-Point Obligations and NOIE CRR Options carried forward to real-time.
April 12, 2012
Day-Ahead Schedule – March 2012
ERCOT Public
22
Day-Ahead Electricity And Ancillary Service Hourly Average Prices – March 2012
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240
10
20
30
40
Regulation Up
Regulation Down
Responsive Reserve
Non Spinning Reserve
DAM Power Balance Price (System Lambda)
Pri
ce
($
/MW
h)
Ancillary Service price reflect the opportunity cost of energy
April 12, 2012 ERCOT Public
23
Day-Ahead Vs Real-Time Load Zone SPP(Hourly Average) – March 2012
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240
20
40
60
80
100
120 RTSPP - LZ West
RTSPP - LZ North
RTSPP - LZ South
RTSPP - LZ Houston
DASPP - LZ West
DASPP - LZ North
DASPP - LZ South
DASPP - LZ Houston
Pri
ce
($
/MW
h)
Prices reflect relative transmission congestion and system scarcity
April 12, 2012 ERCOT Public
24
Day-Ahead Vs Real-Time Hub Average SPP (Hourly Average) – March 2012
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240
20
40
60
80
100
120 RTSPP - Hub Average
DASPP - Hub Average
Pri
ce
($
/MW
h)
Average Real-Time energy prices were higher than Day-Ahead mainly due toLocal congestion caused by transmission outages and
low wind in the West Zone during the last weekScarcity during peak hours on two days
April 12, 2012 ERCOT Public
25
DRUC Monthly Summary – March 2012
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000 Self Scheduled Capacity
Self Scheduled Ancillary Service Limit
Load Forecast
DRUC Recommended Capacity
MW
h
30 executions (1 missed due to DAM delay)None published after 16004.3 minutes average execution timeNo Resources committed
April 12, 2012 ERCOT Public
26
HRUC Monthly Summary – March 2012
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
MW
h
743 executions (1 disapproved due to DAM delay)4.9 minute average execution time
Colors Indicate Individual Resources
Two resources were committed for voltage support
April 12, 2012 ERCOT Public
27
Non-Spinning Reserve Service Deployment – March 2012
Deployment Start Time
Deployment End Time
Deployment Duration (Hours)
Max Deployment (MW)
Reason
3/9/2012 18:34 3/9/2012 20:06 1.5 1958.9 Capacity
3/26/2012 14:07 3/26/2012 15:07 1 254 Voltage Support
3/27/2012 7:15 3/29/2012 12:20 53.1 295 Voltage Support
3/29/2012 14:25 3/31/2012 23:58 57.6 220 Voltage Support
3/31/2012 16:41 3/31/2012 18:42 2 320 Capacity
April 12, 2012 ERCOT Public
28
CRR Price Convergence – March 2012
Congestion Revenue Right cost in auction convergence with payment in Day-Ahead Market
April 12, 2012 ERCOT Public
29
Reliability Services – March 2012
Reliability Unit Commitment (RUC) $ in Millions
RUC Make-Whole Payments ($0.01)
RUC Clawback Charges $0.00
RUC Commitment Settlement ($0.01)
RUC Capacity Short Charges $0.01
RUC Make-Whole Uplift $0.00
RUC Commitment Cost Allocation $0.00
RUC Decommitment Payments $0.00
RUC Cost continue to trend low as compared to previous months.
March 2012 cost was $0.01M, compared to:• A charge of $0M in Feb 2012• A charge of $0.9M in March 2011
ERCOT PublicApril 12, 2012
30
Ancillary Services – March 2012
Capacity Services $ in Millions
Regulation Up Service $3.4
Regulation Down Service $1.4
Responsive Reserve Service $12.2
Non-Spinning Reserve Service $8.1
Black Start Service $0.6
Voltage Support Service $0.00
Total Capacity Service $25.61
Capacity Services costs were slightly increased from last month.
March 2012 cost was $25.61M, compared to:• A charge of $14.87M in Feb 2012• A charge of $36.21M in March 2011
ERCOT PublicApril 12, 2012
31
Energy Settlement – March 2012
Day-Ahead and Real-Time energy settlement similar to February, but much lower than the average costs in 2011 and reflective of lower prices seen year-to-date in 2012.
Day-Ahead Market Energy Settlement $ in Millions
Energy Purchases $273.75
Point to Point Obligation Purchases $22.81
RMR Day-Ahead Revenue $0.00
Energy Sales ($265.77)
Day-Ahead Congestion Rent $30.80
Day-Ahead Market Make-Whole Payments ($0.26)
ERCOT Public
Real-Time Market Energy Settlement $ in Millions
Energy Imbalance at a Resource Node ($404.36)
Energy Imbalance at a Load Zone $580.78
Energy Imbalance at a Hub ($147.44)
Real Time Congestion from Self Schedules $1.55
Block Load Transfers and DC Ties ($2.50)
Impact to Revenue Neutrality $28.03
Emergency Energy Payments ($0.05)
Base Point Deviation Charges $0.31
Real-Time Metered Generation (MWh in millions) 23.24
April 12, 2012
32
Congestion Revenue Rights (CRR) – March 2012
Auction Disbursements $ in Millions
Annual Auction ($13.94)
Monthly Auction ($6.78)
Total Auction Revenue ($20.72)
Day-Ahead CRR Settlement ($22.87)
Day-Ahead CRR Short-Charges $0.33
Day-Ahead CRR Short-Charges Refunded ($0.33)
Real-Time CRR Settlement ($1.59)
Real-Time CRR Short-Charges $0.01
Real-Time CRR Short-Charges Refunded ($0.01)
Total CRR Proceeds ($24.46)
Day-Ahead Point to Point Obligations Settlement $22.81
Real-Time Point to Point Obligation Settlement ($34.73)
Net Point to Point Obligation Settlement ($11.91)
• Congestion Revenue Rights were fully funded.
• Excess funds available for distribution to load.
ERCOT PublicApril 12, 2012
33
Revenue Neutrality – March 2012
Revenue Neutrality Settlement $ in Millions
Real-Time Point to Point Obligation Settlement ($34.73)
Real-Time Point to Point Options and Options with Refund Settlement ($1.59)
Real-Time Energy Imbalance Settlement $28.98
Real-Time Congestion from Self-Schedules Settlement $1.55
DC Tie & Block Load Transfer Settlement ($2.50)
Charge to Load $8.29
Revenue Neutrality trending higher, increase can be attributed to pockets of local congestion causing prices to spike.
March 2012 was a charge of $8.29M, compared to:• $0.23M in Feb 2012• $1.13M in Mar 2011
ERCOT PublicApril 12, 2012
34
Net Uplift to Load – March 2012
Net uplift to load trending higher, increases can be attributed to overall increases in Revenue Neutrality and Ancillary Services.
March 2012 was a charge of $14.67M, compared to:• $2.5M in Feb 2012• $27.3M in Mar 2011
Market-Based Uplifts $ in Millions
CRR Auction Revenue Disbursement Settlement ($20.72)
Balancing Account Proceeds Settlement ($7.97)
Net Reliability Unit Commitment Settlement $0.01
Ancillary Services Settlement $25.61
Reliability Must Run Services Settlement $0.0
Real-Time Revenue Neutrality Settlement $8.29
Emergency Energy Settlement $0.05
Base Point Deviation Settlement ($0.31)
Total $4.96
Fee Uplifts
ERCOT Administrative Fee Settlement $9.72
Net Uplift Charge to Load $14.67
ERCOT PublicApril 12, 2012
35
Advanced Meter Settlement Impacts – March 2012
ERCOT Public
March 2012: Now settling 4.8M ESIIDs using Advanced Meter data.
March 2012: 84.2% of the load in ERCOT is settled with 15-min interval data (AMS, Competitive IDR, and NOIE IDR).
April 12, 2012
36
ERCOT Wide Load Volumes by Meter Type – INITIAL Settlement – March 2012
ERCOT PublicApril 12, 2012
37
Retail Transaction Volumes – Summary – March 2012
Year-To-Date Transactions Completed
Transaction Type Mar 2012 Mar 2011 Mar 2012 Mar 2011
Switches 225,187 185,064 62,510 69,203
Move - Ins 521,927 507,209 178,721 188,501
Move - Outs 249,847 256,296 83,955 95,869
Continuous Service Agreements (CSA) 126,208 105,246 50,107 40,956
Mass Transitions 0 7,187 0 0
Total 1,123,169 1,035,728 375,293 394,529
Total since June 1, 2001 46,048,013
ERCOT PublicApril 12, 2012
38
Retail Transaction Volumes – Summary – March 2012
ERCOT Public
Switches Move-Ins
Move-Outs Mass Transition
April 12, 2012
39
Retail Performance Measures – Switch – March 2012
ERCOT Public
1st Quarter 2nd Quarter
3rd Quarter 4th Quarter
April 12, 2012
40
Retail Performance Measures (Priority Move-In) – March 2012
ERCOT Public
1st Quarter 2nd Quarter
3rd Quarter 4th Quarter
April 12, 2012
41
Retail Performance Measures (Standard Move-In) – March 2012
ERCOT Public
1st Quarter 2nd Quarter
3rd Quarter 4th Quarter
April 12, 2012
Projects Report
43
ERCOT Portfolio Stoplight Report (as of 4/6/2012)
April 12, 2012 ERCOT Public
44
ERCOT Portfolio Stoplight Report (as of 4/6/2012)
April 12, 2012 ERCOT Public
45
ERCOT Portfolio Stoplight Report (as of 4/6/2012)
April 12, 2012 ERCOT Public