ERCOT Historic Synchronous Inertia (Kinetic Energy) and ... … · of all online synchronous...
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ERCOT Historic Synchronous Inertia (Kinetic Energy) and Future Projections
Julia Matevosyan, PhDSr. Planning EngineerResource AdequacyERCOT
Historic Analysis Assumptions
• Kinetic energy is calculated as a sum of H*MVA of all online synchronous generators on hourly basis;
• Jan-May, Nov-Dec data for 2010-2013 and January-May data for 2014 are included in the analysis;
• Peak wind penetration hour (i.e. max Pwind/Pload) in each year is analyzed in details (load, wind, wind capacity factor)
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Kin
etic
ene
rgy,
MW
s
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Installed
Capacity, MW 9,116 9,452 10,034 10,570 11,066
Max Pwind/Pload 25.5% 27.4% 29.8% 35.8% 39.4%
Pwind, MW 6,483 6,772 7,247 8,773 9,699
Capacity Factor 71% 72% 72% 83% 88%
Pload, MW 25,427 24,745 24,328 24,488 24,617
Historic Kinetic Energy
Expected installed wind capacity in a future year (with SGIA or SGIA&FC)
Project an hour with highest instantaneous
penetration of wind based on historical trends
Projected peak wind penetration hour:
Pwind=CapacityFactorhist*P wind capacity
Pload= Avg. historical load at wind penetration peaks
Penetration = Pload/Pwind
Net Load=Pload – Pwind
Expected wind capacity in a future year X:
P wind capacity
Project system inertia for this hour, based on
historical inertia trendline
Synchronous inertia at projected wind penetration peak:
SI = a*Net Load +b
Future Inertia Projection Methodology
Kinetic Energy Trend used for Future Projections
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Kin
etic
ene
rgy,
MW
s
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Installed
Capacity, MW 9,116 9,452 10,034 10,570 11,066 19,443 20,630 21,130
Max Pwind/Pload 25.5% 27.4% 29.8% 35.8% 39.4% 69% 73.2% 75%
Pwind, MW 6,483 6,772 7,247 8,773 9,699 17,041 18,082 18,520
Capacity Factor 71% 72% 72% 83% 88% 88% 88% 88%
Pload, MW 25,427 24,745 24,328 24,488 24,617 24,700 24,700 24,700
Historic Kinetic Energy and Future Projections
at max wind penetration, historic
at max wind penetration, projected based on SGIAs
∗ at max wind penetration, projected based on SGIA&FCs
Frequency deviation after 2750 MW trip (in 0.5 s)
Additional metrics
• Maximum permissible RoCoF, Hz/s: based on frequency deviation to under-frequency load shed (UFLS) and time until first fast frequency response (FFR) in a system is fully deployed (e.g. 0.5 seconds for Responsive Reserve provided by Loads in ERCOT).
RoCoFmax=ΔfUFLS/tFFR,
From this metric based on largest contingency and load damping constant, minimum inertia requirement can be calculated for a system.
• Hz/MW metric: this is frequency nadir per MW generation trip, this metric does not only consider inertia but also includes governor response, load damping and fast frequency response. This metric can be tracked based on historic events and projected for the future (in use in ERCOT).
Frequency nadir for system load conditions ≤ 35000 MW (interpolated based on historical events)
Appendix: Supporting data for slide 6
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (w. FC) 2015 2016 2017Installed
Capacity, MW 9,116 9,452 10,034 10,570 11,066 17179 19,443 20,630 21,130
Max Pwind/Pload 25.5% 27.4% 29.8% 35.8% 39.4% 61% 69% 73.2% 75%
Pwind, MW 6,483 6,772 7,247 8,773 9,699 15057 17,041 18,082 18,520
Capacity Factor 71% 72% 72% 83% 88% 88% 88% 88% 88%
Net Load, MW 18944 17973 17082 15716 14918 9643 7659 6618 6180
Inertia, MWs 161741 147081 133675 120030 119604 89469 80020 75066 72979
EstimatedRoCoF, Hz/s 0.501 0.551 0.605 0.672 0.674 0.89 0.996 1.059 1.088
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Inertia Southern
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Inertia 2014
SCIT Inertia (MW/Sec)
a Max and Minn California May 2014
Max Min
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NERC’ Essential Reliability Service Task Force
Clyde Loutan, Senior Advisor Renewable Energy Integration
October 29, 2014NERC Office Atlanta
Take away from Vancouver
Key focus for our group is to develop the process of predicting future ramping needs, specifically the three hour ramping need as illustrated by CAISO’s example
• Develop hourly upward ramping needs
• Develop hourly downward ramping needs
• Develop three-hours upward ramping needs
• Develop three-hours downward ramping needs
Slide 2
Loads and Resources Team
Subgroup Lead Company Email
Clyde Loutan CAISO [email protected]
Subgroup Members
Amir Najafzadeh NERC [email protected]
Brendan Kirby Kirby Consulting [email protected]
Dave Devereaux IESO [email protected]
Ed Scott Duke Energy [email protected]
Jay Ruberto First Energy [email protected]
Layne Brown WECC [email protected]
Michael McMullen MISO [email protected]
Michael Milligan NREL [email protected]
Noha Abdel-Karim NERC [email protected]
Pooja Shah NERC [email protected]
Ron Carlsen Southern Company [email protected]
Todd Lucas Southern company [email protected] Siegrist Brickfield, Burchette, Ritts & Stone, P.C. [email protected] Dariush Shirmohammadi California Wind Energy Association [email protected] Tuohy EPRI [email protected]
Slide 3
2014 Monthly load vs. net-load profiles
18,00019,00020,00021,00022,00023,00024,00025,00026,00027,00028,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
January 2014 --- Load vs. Net Load
18,000
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February 2014 --- Load vs. Net Load
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March 2014 --- Load vs. Net Load
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April 2014 --- Load vs. Net Load
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May 2014 --- Load vs. Net Load
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June 2014 --- Load vs. Net Load
18,00020,00022,00024,00026,00028,00030,00032,00034,00036,00038,000
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July 2014 --- Load vs. Net Load
18,00020,00022,00024,00026,00028,00030,00032,00034,00036,00038,000
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August 2014 --- Load vs. Net Load
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September 2014 --- Load vs. Net Load
Slide 4
Option 1 – CAISO’s determination of flexible capacity for future years
• NREL’s 2005 VERs profiles were used to develop the wind profiles and Clean Power data was used to develop the solar profiles
• Obtain the latest PTOs assumption of VERs build-out and CPUCs RPS calculator• Calculate 1-minute net-load
Load
• Use 2005 1-minute actual load data
Wind
• Develop 1-minute wind production profiles for CREZs based on their geographic location using NREL’s 2005 wind profiles
Solar installation
• Develop 1-minute solar production profiles for CREZs based on their geographic location and technology using NREL’s 2005 solar profiles (i.e. solar thermal, solar PV tracking & solar PV fixed)
• Aggregate all new solar 1-minute production data by technology
• New CREZs does not have the load/solar correlation but the maximum 3-hour ramps during the non-summer months are highly influenced by sunset which is consistent with existing solar data
Slide 5
Option 2 - The monthly flexibility capacity requirement is calculated using the most recent full year of the CAISO’s load, wind, and solar 1-minute data
• Use 2013 actual CAISO’s load, wind and solar 1-minute data
• For new VERs installation, use NREL’s simulated production data for CREZs located in close geographic proximity to develop minute-by-minute production profiles
• Solar profiles were created using both technology type and location of the new resources
• Generate net-load profiles for 2020
– Generate 1-minute load profiles for 2020
– Generate 1-minute solar profiles for 2020
– Generate 1-minute wind profiles for 2020
Slide 6
Option 2 - Wind growth assumptions
• Use actual 1-minute wind production data for the most recent year e.g. 2013 actual 1-minute data was used to build 2020 1-minute data
• 1-minute wind profiles for projects installed in 2020 were created using 2013 actual data for the months the projects were not in-service (i.e. profiles for projects installed in May 2013 were created for January through April)
• Wind 1-minute profiles for 2020 were created by scaling the 1-minute wind data for 2013 based on installed capacity
2020 W1-min = 2013WActual_1-min * 2020WInstalled Capacity/2013WInstalled Capacity
Slide 7
Option 2 - Solar growth assumptionsExisting solar
• Use actual solar 1-minute production data for the most recent year (e.g. 2013 actual 1-minute solar data was used to develop 2020 profile
• 1-minute solar profiles for projects installed in 2013 were created for the months the projects were not in-service using 2013 actual solar data
New solar installation
• Develop 1-minute solar production profiles for CREZs based on their geographic location and technology using NREL’s 2005 solar profiles (i.e. solar thermal, solar PV tracking & solar PV fixed)
• Aggregate all new solar 1-minute production data by technology
• New CREZs does not have the load/solar correlation but the maximum 3-hour ramps during the non-summer months are highly influenced by sunset which is consistent with existing solar data
• Sum the actual 1-minute existing solar production data with the aggregated simulated solar data for new installation
Total solar 20201-min = 2013Actual_1-min + 2020Simulated_1-min data
Slide 8
Calculating 1-hour and 3-hour upward/downward ramp capacity using net load (NL)
Option 1 – One minute moving window• 1-Hour Ramp: NL61-NL1, NL62-NL2, NL63-NL3….NLn+61-NLn+1 ….n ≥0• 3-Hour Ramp: NL181-NL1, NL182-NL2, NL183-NL3….NLn+180-NLn
Option 2 – Five minute moving window• 1-Hour Ramp: NL61-NL1, NL66-NL6, NL71-NL11….NL5n+61-NL5n+1 …. n ≥0• 3-Hour Ramp: NL181-NL1, NL186-NL6, NL191-NL11….NL5n+181-NL5n+1
Option 3 – Average of one minute moving window• 1-Hour Ramp or 3-Hour
Up RampIf(Avg(NLn+6+NLn+7+NLn+8+NLn+9+NLn+10) - Avg(NLn+1+NLn+2+NLn+3+NLn+4+NLn+5)) >0
Down RampIf(Avg(NLn+6+NLn+7+NLn+8+NLn+9+NLn+10) - Avg(NLn+1+NLn+2+NLn+3+NLn+4+NLn+5)) <0
Slide 9
Maximum monthly 1-Hour upward ramping capacity for 2014 and expected 1-hour ramping capacity for 2020
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2014 4,084 3,844 3,279 3,641 2,308 3,063 2,340 2,464 2,8802020 6,152 6,944 6,688 5,852 4,830 4,517 4,283 5,131 6,362 6,499 7,199 7,777
0
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Monthly 1-Hour Up Ramp Capacity --- 2014 & 2020
2014 2020
Slide 10
Maximum monthly 1-hour upward ramping capacity for 2014 and expected 1-hour ramping capacity for 2020
Maximum monthly 1-hour downward ramping capacity for 2014 and expected 1-hour ramping capacity for 2020
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2014 -2,943 -2,671 -3,389 -3,822 -4,131 -4,180 -3,674 -3,992 -4,2482020 -4,355 -4,443 -5,821 -4,989 -4,956 -4,736 -5,009 -5,375 -5,721 -5,452 -5,084 -4,946
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Monthly 1-Hour Down Ramp Capacity --- 2014 & 2020
2014 2020
Slide 11
Maximum monthly 3-hour upward ramping capacity for 2014 and expected 3-hour ramping capacity for 2020
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2014 7,288 7,078 6,843 6,613 5,574 5,150 5,750 5,577 7,8852020 13,788 15,830 14,917 12,071 11,800 11,516 11,127 12,867 15,053 13,194 15,899 17,956
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Monthly 3-Hour Up Ramp Capacity --- 2014 & 2020
2014 2020
Slide 12
Maximum monthly 3-hour downward ramping capacity for 2014 and expected 3-hour ramping capacity for 2020
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2014 -6,490 -6,734 -7,625 -8,461 -10,615 -9,831 -9,729 -10,449 -10,8052020 -9,228 -9,882 -9,651 -9,565 -12,205 -10,837 -11,830 -13,042 -13,310 -10,362 -8,657 -9,847
-14,000
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Monthly 3-Hour Down Ramp Capacity --- 2014 & 2020
2014 2020
Slide 13
1
WWSIS III: Western Frequency Response and Transient Stability Study – System Inertia Discussion GE Energy Nicholas W. Miller (PM)
Miaolei Shao Slobodan Pajic Rob D’Aquila
NREL Kara Clark (PM)
Presented by Jason MacDowell for ERSTF – Frequency Response TF Atlanta, GA October 29-30, 2014
The draft report is under review by the TRC and by DOE. Therefore, all of the results and statements in this presentation MUST be regarded as preliminary and subject to further review and modification.
Preliminary Results of Western Wind and Solar Integration Study, Phase III : Transient Stability and Frequency Response. Subject to Final Review and Approval by DOE
WECC CALIFORNIA DSW NORTHEAST NORTHWEST
Wind (GW) 27.2 4.7 7.0 5.4 8.4
PV (GW) 10.2 5.8 3.3 0.8 0.3
CSP (GW) 8.4 1.5 7.0 0.0 0.0
DG (GW) 7.0 3.7 2.9 0.4 0.2
Others (GW) 65.7 15.1 11.4 5.4 11.7
total (GW) 118.6 30.8 31.6 12.0 20.5 2
Light Spring Base and High Renewable Cases (‘22)
~ 52.8 GW of wind and solar total
~ 25 GW of wind and solar total in
reference case
US only
~25% of US
generation
~54% of US
generation
Preliminary Results of Western Wind and Solar Integration Study, Phase III : Transient Stability and Frequency Response. Subject to Final Review and Approval by DOE
Inertial Impact of Increasing VG on ROCOF (rate of change of frequency)
Trip 2 Palo Verde units (~2,750MW)
Light Spring Base
Light Spring Hi-Mix
Light Spring Hi-Mix
CSP changed to PV ROCOF (1 sec – 3 sec):
• Blue (Base): 0.096 Hz/Sec • Red (+25GW Wind + Solar):
0.113Hz/Sec = +18% • Green (7GW CSP -> PV):
0.118 Hz/Sec =+22%
Initial ROCOF proportional to
1/Inertia
Preliminary Results of Western Wind and Solar Integration Study, Phase III : Transient Stability and Frequency Response. Subject to Final Review and Approval by DOE
Thank you!