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Equity SNAPSHOT Wednesday, June 07, 2017

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT

MARKET NEWS

Sector Automotive: Government to look at report proposing lower

luxury tax on sedans

Cigarette sector: Directorate General of Customs and Tax expects lower excise tax revenues this year

Poultry: Oversupply issues have continued up to May 2017 Corporate

Indoritel Makmur International: To spend capex of IDR2.3tn this year

Modernland targets higher industrial land sales

Pembangunan Perumahan: New contracts in 5M17 grew 77%yoy

Semen Indonesia: recorded 5% sales volume growth in May 2017*

Semen Baturaja: recorded sales of 564,306tons in 5M17*

KEY INDEX

Close

Chg Ytd Vol

(%) (%) (US$ m)

Asean - 5

Indonesia 5,708 (0.7) 7.8 357

Thailand 1,569 0.1 1.7 1,237

Philippines 7,953 (0.6) 16.3 165

Malaysia 1,791 0.2 9.1 619

Singapore 3,236 (0.1) 12.3 649

Regional

China 3,102 0.3 (0.0) 26,438

Hong Kong 25,997 0.5 18.2 9,600

Japan 19,980 (0.9) 4.5 12,657

Korea 2,366 (0.1) 16.8 5,501

Taiwan 10,206 (0.2) 10.3 2,865

India 31,191 (0.4) 17.1 529

NASDAQ 6,275 (0.3) 16.6 82,431

Dow Jones 21,136 (0.2) 7.0 7,850

CURRENCY AND INTEREST RATE

Rate

w-w m-m ytd

(%) (%) (%)

Rupiah Rp/1US$ 13,297 0.2 (0.0) 1.3

SBI rate % 5.90 - - (1.3)

10y Gov Indo bond 6.95 (0.0) (0.1) (1.0)

HARD COMMODITY

Unit Price

d-d m-m ytd

(%) (%) (%)

Coal US$/ton 77 1.4 (1.3) (13.0)

Gold US$/toz 1,294 (0.0) 5.9 12.3

Nickel US$/mt.ton 8,816 (0.6) (3.2) (11.5)

Tin US$/mt.ton 19,779 (2.3) 0.6 (6.7)

SOFT COMMODITY

Unit Price

d-d m-m ytd

(%) (%) (%)

Cocoa US$/mt.ton 2,017 (0.5) 5.9 (6.1)

Corn US$/mt.ton 137 1.3 2.0 6.4

Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 48 (0.3) 4.0 (10.5)

Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 50 1.3 2.1 (11.8)

Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 2,750 (1.2) 1.0 (14.0)

Rubber USd/kg 135 (3.2) (9.1) (30.1)

Pulp US$/tonne 879 N/A 4.0 8.7

Coffee US$/60kgbag 127 (0.3) 6.6 (12.9)

Sugar US$/MT 414 0.2 (6.2) (21.0)

Wheat US$/ton 119 1.5 (1.5) 0.3

Source: Bloomberg



SECTOR Automotive: Government to look at report proposing lower luxury tax on sedans

The Association of Indonesian Automotive Industries (Gaikindo) has completed its review on the proposal to

reduce luxury tax (PPnBM) on sedans and submitted it to the Ministry of Industry. Discussions will not only cover the luxury tax on sedans but also on carbon tax, low-cost green cars (LCGC) and low-carbon emission vehicles

(LCEV). Based on the latest regulation PP No. 22/2014, luxury tax on sedans varies from 30% to 125%. (Bisnis Indonesia)

Cigarette sector: Directorate General of Customs and Tax expects lower excise tax revenues this

year

The Directorate General of Customs and Tax reported higher excise tax revenues of Rp16.4tn by the end of May 2017, up 9% yoy. Around 76% of the total 5M17 excise tax revenues came from tobacco products. In 2017, the

government increased the average cigarette excise tax by 10.54% yoy, less than 2016’s 15% yoy. Nonetheless, the Directorate General of Customs and Tax estimates lower excise tax revenues this year given lower expected

cigarette sales volume (-2% yoy). (Kontan)

Poultry: Oversupply issues have continued up to May 2017 Based on a recent Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA) survey on DOC and broiler prices in West Java, DOC prices YTD Jan-May 2017 were 10.4% lower than those in the same period last year at IDR4,030/kg (Jan-May 2016: IDR4,499/kg). Broiler prices YTD Jan-May 2017 were 3.5% lower than last year’s at IDR16,096/kg (Jan-May 2016: IDR16,678). The government has recently ordered culling on March 27, 2017 and the second culling in 2017 will be done in the period June 5-10, 2017. (Company)

Exhibit 1. DOC prices Jan-May 2017, YTD (IDR/kg) Exhibit 2. Broiler prices Jan-May 2017, YTD (IDR/kg)

Source: Company Source: Company

CORPORATE Indoritel Makmur International: To spend capex of IDR2.3tn this year

Indoritel Makmur International (DNET) plans to spend IDR2.3tn capex this year mainly for fiber optics expansion in 200 cities across Indonesia. However, the capex will also be used for 1,500 new store openings of Indomaret in

2017 with 40% of them being franchise businesses. As of 2016, Indomaret had about 14,033 owned stores and 4,364 franchise stores. The company also plans to make improvements to its distribution center. The company has

decided it will not pay any dividends this year. (Bisnis Indonesia)

Modernland targets higher industrial land sales

Modernland Realty is targeting higher industrial land sales this year. Last year, MDLN managed to record 25ha of land sales. (Investor Daily)

MARKET NEWS



Pembangunan Perumahan: New contracts in 5M17 grew 77%yoy Pembangunan Perumahan (PTPP) booked IDR12.6tr of new contracts as of May17. This is up 77.0%yoy from

the IDR7.1tr booked in the previous year and 31% of the management’s full year target at IDR40.6tr

(+25%yoy; FY16A: IDR32.6tr). Around IDR10.9tr or 86.5% of the new contracts were booked by PTPP and the remaining IDR1.7tr (13.5%) by PTPP’s subsidiary. (Investor Daily)

Semen Indonesia: recorded 5% sales volume growth in May 2017

Semen Indonesia (SMGR) said that it had recorded 5% sales volume growth in May 2017, translating into sales

pf 2.26mn tons. As such, on a cumulative basis, total cement sales reached 10.91mn tons, up 7.5%yoy. (Kontan)

Comment: SMGR’s sales in 5M17 are 38.9% of our full year forecast of 28mn tons, INLINE. We maintain our HOLD call on SMGR with a target price of IDR8,600. Currently, SMGR is trading at 17.4x 2017F P/E. (Antonia)

Semen Baturaja: recorded sales of 564,306tons in 5M17

Semen Baturaja managed to record sales of 564,306tons in 5M17, up 2.2%yoy. The company stated that most of the sales were generated from government projects. (Kontan)

Comment: The 5M17 sales are 35.7% of our full year sales target of 1.6mn tons, INLINE. We maintain our SELL call on SMBR with a target price of IDR390. Currently, SMBR is trading at 158.2x 2017F P/E. (Antonia)


DANAREKSA VALUATION GUIDE

Rating Price (Rp) Price Mkt Cap

Target Rp Bn 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2017 2018

Danareksa Universe 3,492,490 186,408 213,487 285.3 326.7 16.2% 14.5% 18.7 16.4 20.9 18.7 2.8 2.5 15.7 16.2

Auto 359,292 18,975 22,003 381.6 442.5 25.2% 16.0% 18.9 16.3 13.6 11.5 2.3 2.1 12.8 13.4

Astra International HOLD 8,875 8,400 359,292 18,975 22,003 469 544 449 531 25.2% 16.0% 18.9 16.3 13.6 11.5 2.3 2.1 22.4 12.8 13.4

Banks 1,233,226 88,057 103,310 864.2 1,013.9 18.1% 17.3% 14.0 11.9 2.1 1.9 16.0 16.6

BCA BUY 17,550 18,300 432,695 22,682 25,017 920 1,015 920 1,015 10.1% 10.3% 19.1 17.3 N/A N/A 3.3 2.9 N/A 18.8 18.0

BNI HOLD 6,500 6,700 121,216 14,049 16,825 753 902 753 902 23.9% 19.8% 8.6 7.2 N/A N/A 1.2 1.1 N/A 15.0 15.6

BRI BUY 14,675 15,000 362,020 30,046 33,756 1,218 1,368 1,218 1,368 14.7% 12.3% 12.0 10.7 N/A N/A 2.1 1.9 N/A 19.1 18.8

Bank Tabungan Negara BUY 2,420 2,400 25,628 2,941 3,120 278 295 278 295 12.3% 6.1% 8.7 8.2 N/A N/A 1.2 1.1 N/A 14.6 14.0

Bank Mandiri HOLD 12,500 11,500 291,667 18,340 24,591 786 1,054 786 1,054 32.8% 34.1% 15.9 11.9 N/A N/A 1.8 1.6 N/A 11.7 14.2

Cement 151,180 5,871 5,904 301 303 -32.1% 0.6% 25.8 25.6 13.5 13.3 2.5 2.4 9.9 9.5

Indocement SELL 17,950 13,000 66,078 2,514 2,484 683 675 677 669 -35.1% -1.2% 26.3 26.6 14.3 14.4 2.4 2.4 net cash 9.5 9.1

Semen Indonesia HOLD 9,300 8,600 55,163 3,169 3,238 534 546 508 518 -29.9% 2.2% 17.4 17.0 9.2 9.0 1.8 1.7 7.4 10.7 10.3

Semen Baturaja SELL 3,030 390 29,939 188 182 19 19 19 18 -27.3% -3.3% 158.2 163.7 64.4 61.3 9.2 8.8 17.9 5.9 5.5

Cigarettes 592,140 20,433 21,966 173 186 5.1% 7.5% 29.0 27.0 19.7 18.3 7.4 6.8 26.6 26.4

Gudang Garam HOLD 74,400 72,900 143,152 7,303 7,787 3,796 4,047 3,796 4,047 9.4% 6.6% 19.6 18.4 12.2 11.3 3.2 2.8 34.0 17.3 16.3

HM Sampoerna HOLD 3,860 3,850 448,988 13,130 14,180 113 122 112 120 2.9% 8.0% 34.2 31.7 25.3 23.3 12.9 12.4 net cash 38.1 40.0

Construction 132,677 8,734 11,125 117 149 27.3% 27.4% 15.2 11.9 8.8 7.0 2.1 1.8 14.7 16.3

Wijaya Karya BUY 2,200 2,800 19,734 1,225 1,783 137 199 137 199 21.0% 45.5% 16.1 11.1 5.8 4.2 1.6 1.4 net cash 10.4 13.7

Pembangunan Perumahan BUY 3,090 5,700 19,158 1,295 1,570 209 253 233 283 33.9% 21.2% 14.8 12.2 7.3 6.0 3.0 2.5 net cash 22.5 22.6

Adhi Karya BUY 2,250 3,500 8,012 986 1,292 292 382 303 404 40.2% 31.1% 7.7 5.9 4.5 3.6 1.0 0.8 8.4 13.7 14.1

Waskita Karya BUY 2,280 3,700 30,948 2,344 3,501 173 258 173 258 38.9% 49.3% 13.2 8.8 9.5 6.1 2.4 1.9 16.3 19.5 24.1

Waskita Beton BUY 480 770 12,653 788 954 30 36 30 36 44.1% 21.1% 16.1 13.3 10.4 7.6 1.7 1.5 net cash 10.7 11.9

Wika Beton BUY 675 1,100 5,883 349 420 42 50 42 50 28.3% 20.2% 16.1 13.4 10.3 8.6 2.2 2.0 17.1 13.7 14.8

Jasa Marga BUY 5,000 6,300 36,289 1,747 1,606 257 236 261 240 4.4% -8.1% 19.5 21.2 12.0 11.0 2.7 2.5 162.3 14.0 11.6

Consumer 588,010 17,509 19,958 338 385 11.7% 14.0% 33.6 29.5 22.6 20.1 8.7 7.8 27.5 28.0

Indofood CBP BUY 8,750 9,800 102,042 4,002 4,502 343 386 343 386 11.2% 12.5% 25.5 22.7 15.9 14.5 4.9 4.4 net cash 20.4 20.5

Indofood HOLD 8,875 8,650 77,926 4,506 5,098 517 580 512 569 9.2% 12.2% 17.2 15.3 13.9 12.3 2.5 2.3 47.2 14.9 15.5

Unilever HOLD 46,825 47,000 357,275 7,278 8,392 954 1,100 954 1,100 13.9% 15.3% 49.1 42.6 34.4 30.0 63.9 53.3 27.1 141.4 136.5

Kino Indonesia SELL 2,200 2,800 3,143 191 212 134 149 134 149 5.4% 11.2% 16.5 14.8 9.9 9.1 1.5 1.4 12.2 9.5 9.8

Mayora Indah HOLD 2,130 2,100 47,624 1,532 1,755 69 78 69 82 13.1% 14.5% 31.1 27.1 16.3 14.5 6.5 5.4 24.4 22.8 21.8

Healthcare 89,108 2,796 3,137 106 119 8.6% 12.4% 31.9 28.4 25.5 22.4 5.6 5.0 18.7 18.6

Kalbe Farma BUY 1,555 1,750 72,891 2,507 2,811 53 60 53 60 9.0% 12.1% 29.1 25.9 24.0 21.3 5.4 4.8 net cash 19.8 19.7

Kimia Farma SELL 2,920 1,510 16,218 289 326 52 59 52 59 8.1% 12.7% 56.1 49.8 33.7 29.0 6.6 5.9 24.6 12.4 12.6

Heavy Equipment 100,527 6,468 7,242 1,734 1,941 29.3% 12.0% 15.5 13.9 6.4 5.3 2.3 2.1 15.8 15.9

United Tractors HOLD 26,950 23,500 100,527 6,468 7,242 1,734 1,941 1,734 1,941 29.3% 12.0% 15.5 13.9 6.4 5.3 2.3 2.1 net cash 15.8 15.9

Mining 142,958 9,432 11,138 119 140 43.6% 18.1% 15.2 12.8 5.6 5.0 1.2 1.2 8.1 9.3

Adaro Energy BUY 1,605 1,900 51,337 4,282 4,588 134 143 134 143 18.4% 7.2% 12.0 11.2 4.2 3.7 1.2 1.2 1.5 10.3 10.8

Timah BUY 820 1,250 6,107 371 384 50 52 50 52 109.5% 3.5% 16.5 15.9 7.3 6.5 1.0 1.0 27.0 6.4 6.3

Vale Indonesia HOLD 1,850 2,800 18,382 380 540 38 54 38 54 1412.0% 42.0% 48.3 34.0 6.1 5.8 0.8 0.8 net cash 1.6 2.3

Aneka Tambang HOLD 720 900 17,302 (147) 207 (6) 9 (6) 9 -52.0% -240.6% (117.5) 83.5 20.7 18.4 1.0 1.0 27.0 (0.8) 1.2

Bukit Asam BUY 11,050 14,500 25,461 2,498 3,004 1,149 1,382 1,149 1,382 72.7% 20.3% 9.6 8.0 6.5 5.5 2.1 1.8 net cash 22.9 23.2

Indo Tambangraya Megah HOLD 16,350 15,800 18,474 1,661 1,913 1,470 1,693 1,470 1,693 21.8% 15.2% 11.1 9.7 4.1 3.9 1.6 1.5 net cash 14.1 15.9

Harum Energy SELL 2,180 2,000 5,894 388 501 144 185 144 185 55.8% 29.1% 15.2 11.8 4.6 3.5 1.5 1.4 net cash 9.9 12.3

Property 108,938 7,238 6,909 60 58 40.6% -4.6% 15.1 15.8 10.6 11.1 1.8 1.6 12.3 10.6

Alam Sutera HOLD 330 380 6,484 1,129 1,026 57 52 56 59 121.9% -9.2% 5.7 6.3 8.1 8.9 0.8 0.7 74.5 14.9 12.1

Bumi Serpong Damai BUY 1,780 2,200 34,259 3,115 1,947 162 101 203 137 73.4% -37.5% 11.0 17.6 8.7 12.2 1.5 1.4 14.3 14.1 8.0

Ciputra Development BUY 1,125 1,530 20,880 965 1,385 52 75 39 63 -6.9% 43.5% 21.6 15.1 11.9 10.0 1.5 1.4 24.5 7.3 9.6

Pakuw on Jati BUY 605 700 29,137 1,707 2,146 35 45 37 44 2.2% 25.7% 17.1 13.6 11.9 10.2 2.9 2.4 34.6 18.2 19.5

Summarecon HOLD 1,260 1,300 18,178 322 405 22 28 35 34 3.2% 26.0% 56.5 44.9 14.3 14.3 2.8 2.6 82.5 5.0 6.0

Retail 83,543 3,691 3,930 108 115 9.0% 6.5% 22.6 21.3 12.4 11.5 5.5 5.0 25.4 24.5

Mitra Adi Perkasa HOLD 6,200 5,800 10,292 332 354 201 214 201 214 59.3% 6.7% 30.9 28.9 7.8 7.3 3.2 3.2 80.0 10.3 10.9

Ramayana BUY 1,260 1,580 8,941 453 475 67 70 67 70 10.9% 4.9% 18.9 18.0 13.9 12.7 2.5 2.3 net cash 13.2 12.8

Matahari Department Store SELL 14,800 12,000 43,185 2,098 2,265 719 777 719 777 4.0% 7.9% 20.6 19.1 14.1 12.8 17.0 12.9 net cash 95.6 77.1

Matahari Putra Prima SELL 755 990 4,060 109 112 17 17 17 17 183.4% 2.7% 45.2 44.0 6.5 6.5 1.6 1.6 net cash 4.4 4.5

Ace Hardw are HOLD 995 850 17,064 699 724 41 42 41 42 -1.7% 3.6% 24.3 23.4 18.1 17.3 5.0 4.5 net cash 21.6 20.1

Erajaya Sw asembada BUY 665 1,100 1,929 303 339 105 117 105 117 14.9% 11.8% 6.4 5.7 3.3 2.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 8.6 9.0

PER (x)

Equity

Valuation Net profit, Rp bn EPS (Rp) Core EPS (Rp) EPS Growth ROE EV / EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Net Gearing




LEADERS Price as on Code 6-Jun-17 5-Jun-17 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating

Adaro Energy ADRO 1,605 1,545 3.9 9.6 2.9 (5.3) BUY

Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG 16,350 15,750 3.8 3.5 (11.1) (3.1) HOLD

Harum Energy HRUM 2,180 2,120 2.8 5.3 (7.6) 1.9 SELL

Bukit Asam PTBA 11,050 10,825 2.1 3.0 (3.9) (11.6) BUY

Alam Sutera ASRI 330 324 1.9 1.2 (2.9) (6.3) HOLD

United Tractors UNTR 26,950 26,550 1.5 3.6 7.6 26.8 HOLD

Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI 6,500 6,475 0.4 (0.4) (1.1) 17.6 HOLD

HM Sampoerna HMSP 3,860 3,850 0.3 1.8 (1.0) 0.8 HOLD

Gudang Garam GGRM 74,400 74,300 0.1 1.4 4.2 16.4 HOLD

Semen Indonesia SMGR 9,300 9,300 - (0.5) 5.7 1.4 HOLD

Sources: Bloomberg

LAGGARDS Price as on Code 6-Jun-17 5-Jun-17 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating

Summarecon Agung SMRA 1,260 1,335 (5.6) (4.5) (8.7) (4.9) HOLD

Timah TINS 820 865 (5.2) (6.3) (9.9) (23.7) BUY

Pakuwon Jati PWON 605 635 (4.7) (3.2) (11.7) 7.1 BUY

Semen Baturaja SMBR 3,030 3,170 (4.4) (2.9) (12.2) 8.6 SELL

Indocement INTP 17,950 18,700 (4.0) (3.5) 9.5 16.6 SELL

Ciputra Development CTRA 1,125 1,170 (3.8) 3.2 (6.3) (15.7) BUY

Erajaya Swasembada ERAA 665 690 (3.6) (0.7) 3.9 10.8 BUY

Ramayana RALS 1,260 1,300 (3.1) (0.8) (4.5) 5.4 BUY

Kimia Farma KAEF 2,920 2,990 (2.3) 2.8 15.0 6.2 SELL

Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI 14,675 15,025 (2.3) 3.3 5.4 25.7 BUY

Sources: Bloomberg

COVERAGE PERFORMANCE



PREVIOUS REPORTS

Bank Mandiri: Improvements on track Snapshot20170606

Unilever Indonesia: Fully valued Snapshot20170531 United Tractors: The mining sector supported Komatsu sales Snapshot20170526

Indo Tambangraya: Flat coal production, Mitra Adiperkasa : Supported by resilient growth and

better efficiency Snapshot20170523 Market Outlook: Investment grade! Snapshot20170522

Automotive Sector: April 2017: Weak monthly car sales volume Snapshot20170518

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Adeline Solaiman

[email protected] (62-21) 2955 888 ext. 3503 Retail

PT Danareksa Sekuritas

Jl. Medan Merdeka Selatan No. 14 Jakarta 10110 Indonesia Tel (62 21) 29 555 888 Fax (62 21) 350 1709

Equity Research Team

Sales team

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[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3128

Novrita E. Putrianti Ehrliech Suhartono


Maria Renata

[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3513 Construction


Yunita L. Nababan

[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3512 Technical Analyst

Lucky Bayu Purnomo

Laksmita Armandani


Antonia Febe Hartono

[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3504 Cement, Property

Muhammad Hardiansyah



Tuty Sutopo


Upik Yuzarni


Kevin Giarto

[email protected] (62-21) 2955 888 ext. 3530 Auto, Coal, Heavy Equip., Metal, Cement

Stefanus Darmagiri

[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3508 Consumer, Tobacco, Property

Natalia Sutanto [email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3500 Head of Research, Strategy, Banking

Agus Pramono, CFA

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