TECHNICAL TREND ( NIFTY - BANK NIFTY FUTURES )

NIFTY FIFTY : - The Market opened in positive Note on Monday with equity

benchmark Nifty 50 up by 29 points or 0.33 percent above at 8712. Indian markets

remained upbeat post the passage of the Goods and Services Tax bill even as the

benchmark Nifty bounced back from its crucial support area of 8530. Early on Monday

morning the Index was poised to open at 8760, a little over half above its previous close of

8706. In line with the market expectations, The Reserve Bank of India kept its Policy rate

unchanged. However it declared that it has enough provisions and place to accommodate

rate cut in next monetary policy meet. The Nifty traded in the range of 8500-8650. The

Nifty resilient at 8700 levels. But despite strong buying by the FII in both cash and

derivative segment it is unable to cross 8750 levels. The Crucial Levels for Next Week is

8720-8800 up side and 8600-8550 is down side.

BANK NIFTY : - The Bank Nifty Opened in a Positive Note On Monday up by 61 points

or 0.32 percent at 18986. Governor Rajan was concerned that banks were not in a position

to pass on the complete benefits of lower interest rates to the consumers as their balance

sheets have been heavily dented by high NPA margins. However at the same time he was

confident that banks may soon clear up their balance sheet and then pass on the benefits to

the end user. Finding banks working under the fear of CBI and CVC as "bizzare", a

Parliamentary panel has asked lenders to take decision on financing of stressed assets as

per their "own wisdom" and on the basis of the project's viability. Finding that total NPAs

of Rs 2.6 lakh crore may go up to Rs 4 lakh crore on account of defaulting infrastructure

projects, banks can be empowered to make recovery of bad debts. The Crucial Levels for

Bank Nifty is 19150-19300 up side and 18700-18850 is down side.

Tuesday, 16 August 2016

TECHNICAL VIEW (NIFTY- BANK NIFTY FUTURES )

NIFTY

DAILY R2 R1 PP S1 S2

8877 8715 8634 8553 8391

WEEKLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2

8878 8716 8635 8554 8392

MONTHLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2

9234 8826 8622 8418 8010

BANK NIFTY

DAILY R2 R1 PP S1 S2

19597 19157 18937 18717 18277

WEEKLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2

19598 19158 18938 18718 18278

MONTHLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2

20689 19437 18811 18185 16933

MOVING AVERAGE 21 DAYS 50 DAYS 100 DAYS 200 DAYS

NIFTY 8625 8428 8141 7886

BANK NIFTY 18907 18351 17451 16727

PARABOLIC SAR DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

NIFTY 8792 8153 7137

BANK NIFTY 19025 18350 13975

PATTERN FORMATION ( NIFTY )

Detail of Chart - On the Above given daily Chart of Nifty has Applied the Bollinger

Band Along with Parabolic SAR, both the indicators give the early indication of Bullish

or Bearish trend of the market. The uses of Bollinger Band varies from traders to traders

Some buy when it break the middle Band on upper Side and some buy after the break out

of Upper band from down respectively. On the Above given Chart of Nifty earlier it has

touched the Upper Band but was not able to break the level of strong resistance of 8700.

Now it seems that trend has reverse into the Consolidation in the Daily Chart has Formed

the Bullish candle which is also the signal of market reversal. If the Nifty is able to Break

the 8680 level we could see some positive trend for upcoming week, break below 8700

could touch the level of 8880 in upcoming week. The Crucial levels for Nifty is 8650-

8600 down side and 8700-8750 is Upside.

PATTERN FORMATION ( BANK NIFTY )

Detail of Chart - On the Above given Chart of Bank Nifty has Applied the Bollinger

Band along with the Parabolic , both the indicators give the early indication of Bullish or

Bearish trend of the market. Thus uses of Bollinger Band varies from traders to traders

Some buy when it break the middle Band on upper Side and some buy after the break out

of Upper band from down. On the above given Chart we could see that the price is near

the middle Band if it is able to sustain the middle Band level it could lead the Bank Nifty

in bull side in upcoming week. Break below middle Band which is around 19150 could

lead the Bank Nifty toward the level of 19400 in Near-Term the crucial level for Bank

Nifty is 18850-18570 down side and 19200-19450 is Upside.

NSE EQUITY DAILY LEVELS

COMPANY

NAME

R2 R1 PP S1 S2

ACC EQ 1682 1667 1644 1629 1606

ALBK EQ 79 77 74 72 69

AMBUJACEM EQ 268 266 263 261 259

ASIAN PAINT EQ 1177 1157 1141 1121 1105

AXISBANK EQ 608 599 584 576 561

BAJAJ-AUTO EQ 2934 2901 2870 2837 2806

BANKBARODA EQ 156 153 148 145 142

BANKINDIA EQ 124 119 110 1105 96

BHEL EQ 140 139 138 137 136

BHARTIARTL EQ 351 349 346 344 342

CIPLA EQ 532 524 518 508 502

COALINDIA EQ 341 339 337 335 329

DLF EQ 165 164 162 161 159

DRREDDY EQ 3043 3027 3005 2989 2967

GAIL EQ 380 377 374 374 367

GRASIM EQ 4905 4933 4844 4672 4583

HCLTECH EQ 847 830 818 802 790

HDFC EQ 1404 1393 1372 1365 1341

HDFCBANK EQ 1243 1236 1227 1220 1212

HEROMOTOCO EQ 3350 3325 3285 3260 3220

HINDALCO EQ 152 149 146 143 139

HINDUNILVR EQ 957 946 925 915 902

ICICIBANK EQ 251 248 244 242 238

ITC EQ 258 256 253 248 245

INDUSIND BANK EQ 1190 1182 1171 1163 1153

INFY EQ 1085 1074 1067 1053 1039

JINDALSTEL EQ 83 82 81 79 78

KOTAKBANK EQ 776 769 764 758 753

LT EQ 1519 1505 1492 1472 1464

M&M EQ 1503 1477 1450 1424 1397

MRF EQ 37205 36667 36333 35795 35461

MARUTI EQ 4988 4943 4895 4850 4802

ONGC EQ 237 235 232 230 228

ORIENTBANK EQ 120 117 111 108 102

RCOM EQ 50 49 48 46 45

RELCAPITAL EQ 447 442 437 432 428

RELIANCE EQ 1057 1046 1031 1020 1006

RELINFRA EQ 592 586 578 572 565

RPOWER EQ 51 51 50 50 49

SBIN EQ 276 262 252 238 229

SSLT( VEDL) EQ 168 166 165 163 160

SUNPHARMA EQ 841 820 805 785 770

TATAMOTORS EQ 527 522 514 508 500

TATAPOWER EQ 77 76 74 73 72

TATASTEEL EQ 383 378 373 369 365

UNIONBANK EQ 136 132 127 124 119

TOP 15 ACHIEVERS // TOP 15 LOOSERS

SR.NO SCRIPT NAME PREV CLOSE CMP % CHANGE

1 GRASIM 5186 4460 -14.00 %

2 BHARTI INFRA 384 349 -9.96 %

3 BANK BARODA 158 147 -6.72 %

4 SUN PHARMA 829 791 -4.58 %

5 AURO PHARMA 763 733 -4.05 %

6 TECH MAHINDRA 502 483 -3.80 %

7 IDEA CELLULAR 97 93 -3.65 %

8 HERO MOTOCORP 3411 3298 -3.32 %

9 M&M 1480 1436 -2.99 %

10 INFOSYS 1083 1055 -2.54 %

11 WIPRO LTD. 551 537 -2.51 %

12 GAIL LTD. 379 370 -2.40 %

13 ZEEL 512 500 -2.36 %

14 BHARTI AIRTEL 349 341 -2.33 %

15 SUNPHARMA 835.65 834.70 -0.11

SR.NO SCRIPT NAME PREV CLOSE

CMP % CHANGE

1 ADANI PORTS 239 270+12.62 %

2SBIN 235 243 +3.59 %

3 HINDALCO 146 151+3.07 %

4POWER GRID CO 176 181 +3.07 %

5 YES BANK 1259 1297+2.97 %

6ITC LTD. 247 254 +2.71 %

7 ONGC 229 234+2.34 %

8TCS 2650 2700 +1.88 %

9 AXIS BANK LTD. 574 582+1.53 %

10TATA POWER CO. 75 76.40 +1.46 %

11 KOTAK BANK 764 772+0.97 %

12HDFC 1343 1354 +0.83 %

13 NTPC 159 161+0.78 %

14TATA STEEL 375 376.98 +0.43 %

15 L&T 1500 1505+0.23 %

NSE - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

✍ TOP NEWS OF THE WEEK

Economic recovery to accelerate; inflation seen below 5 per cent: Morgan Stanley -

The country's economic recovery is expected to accelerate in the long-term on the back of

rise in purchasing power, consumption growth and monetary policy easing, while

inflation is seen below 5 per cent over the next two years, says a Morgan Stanley report.

"We believe this will be a longer duration expansion cycle with GDP growth expected to

accelerate and inflation expected to remain at or below 5 per cent over the next two

years," Morgan Stanley said in a research note. According to the global financial services

major, the recovery in the Indian economy will be led by domestic demand, with factors

like consumption, public capex and foreign investment playing the key part.

Five factors that will drive consumption growth sustainably higher going forward include,

sustained moderation in inflation and improvement in purchasing power; trailing

monetary policy easing and expectation of more easing; pay commission-related wage

hikes for governmentt employees; pick-up in job growth; potential improvement in the

rural sector if the weather becomes supportive. According to the global financial services

major, the macro environment has seen steady improvement in the last two years,

however, the pace of growth recovery has been slower than anticipated.

RBI soaking foreign inflows to curb impact on rupee: Raghuram Rajan - India's

central bank is trying to prevent the rupee from becoming too volatile by regularly buying

dollars when there are inflows from foreign investors, Reserve Bank of India Governor

Raghuram Rajan said on Wednesday. Rajan, in a television interview, also said the central

bank would likely pay a record-high dividend to the government, which would be one-

sixth higher than the 699 billion rupees $10.48 billion pencilled into the annual budget

unveiled in February. "We are absorbing a fair amount of the inflows," Rajan said, adding

that was a reason why foreign exchange reserves have soared recently to a record high.

Top 100 borrowers owe PSBs Rs 13.71 lakh crore - Government today said the top 100

borrowers of public sector banks owe nearly Rs 14 lakh crore to them. "The amount

outstanding for top 100 borrowers of public sector banks as on March 31, 2016 was Rs

13,71,885 crore," Minister of State for Finance Santosh Kumar Gangwar said in a written

reply to Rajya Sabha. The gross non-performing assets of the public sector banks

increased Rs 2.16 lakh crore in 2013-14 to Rs 4.76 lakh crore in 2015-16, he said.

Reserve Bank as part of the ongoing supervisory assessment process carried out an Asset

Quality Review excercise to examine the assessment of asset quality at bank's system

level and deal with the cases of divergences in identification of NPAs or addition

provisioning across banks at the central office level, he said. Besides, it was envisaged to

ensure early finalisation and communication of divergence in provisioning giving banks

more time to plan the additional provision over the remaining quarters, he said. The

wilful defaulters as a percentage of GNPAs as on March 2016 was 16.09 per cent. In

another reply Gangwar said NPAs of the scheduled commercial banks have risen from

5.43 per cent in March 2015 to 9.32 per cent in March 2016.

Japan to invest USD 25 billion in India: Suresh Prabhu - Noting that Indo-Japan ties

have reached a new level, Railway Minister Suresh Prabhu has said that Japan has

committed to invest USD 25 billion in India and the country will benefit immensely from

the investment. "The relation between India and Japan has never been better. Our bilateral

relation has been strengthened and members of parliament have contributed towards it,"

Prabhu said here while releasing coffee-table book '12 Years of Engaged Leadership:

Down the Memory Lane.' The book contains photographs and gist/focus of meetings held

during parliamentary delegation visits to Japan. CII and Sasakawa Peace Foundation

under Indo-Japan Strategic Dialogue Programme, launched in 2004, take a delegation of

MPs every year to Japan. Since its launch, 12 delegations of MPs have visited Japan,

making significant contribution in terms of enriching bilateral relationship and

strengthening economic, political and cultural ties between the two countries.

Industrial production expands 2.1 per cent in June - India's industrial growth edged up

to 2.1 per cent in June, an eight-month high, riding a pickup in electricity generation and

showing some signs of acceleration ahead. Data released by the statistics office showed

an 8.3 per cent increase in electricity production in June and a 4.7 per cent gain in mining

output. Manufacturing, the sector with the highest weight in the Index of Industrial

Production , grew a marginal 0.9 per cent in the month. May IIP reading was revisedto a

1.13 per cent increase, compared with the 1.2 per cent rise reported earlier. "While the

pace of growth still remains low, there was an improvement across the board," ratings

firm Crisil said in a note, while forecasting better days ahead. "Above-normal monsoon,

which could improve rural demand, along with the lagged impact of interest rate

reductions, salary revisions and easier monetary conditions are expected to support

demand in future and boostd boost industrial activity," it said, setting an industrial GDP

growth target of 7.6 per cent for fiscal 2017, compared with last year's 7.4 per cent

expansion.

Meeting fiscal deficit target of 3.5% will be a challenge: Government - The

government said in meeting the fiscal deficit target of 3.5% of GDP for the current fiscal

will be a challenge because of the additional burden due to the pay commission award

even as it reiterated its commitment to cutting fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP by FY18. The

Indian economy is showing "bright" near-term prospects, the government said in the

medium term Expenditure Framework Statement for 2016-2017 presented in Parliament

on Friday by finance minister Arun Jaitley. The statement pointed to improved

macroeconomic stability because of fiscal prudence and lower inflation helped by

moderation in crude prices. It said major subsidies are expected to decline gradually from

1.5% of GDP in FY17 to 1.4% in FY18 and further to 1.3% in FY19. The fiscal deficit

target for FY18 and FY19 remain unchanged at 3% of GDP.

Retail inflation crosses 6% mark, at two year high of 6.07 per cent in July - Retail

inflation accelerated at a faster-than-expected pace to touch a two-year high in July,

driven by costlier food. It also crossed the target set by the government earlier this month

for consumer inflation. The Consumer Price Index, the gauge of inflation at the retail

level, rose to 6.07% in July, much above the Reserve Bank of India's target of 5% by

March 2017, presenting a big challenge for the new governor who will succeed

Raghuram Rajan at the central bank next month. The CPI was 5.77% in June, while the

median analyst expectation for the current month was 5.9%. The rise rules out monetary

easing any time soon, though most experts expect inflation to ease going ahead and an at

least quarter percentage point reduction in interest rates in the rest of the financial year

through March 2017.

✍ TOP ECONOMY NEWS

The passing of the Constitution One Hundred and Twenty Second Amendment Bill, 2014

relating to Goods & Services Tax by huge consensus in the Rajya Sabha was the hallmark

of the third week of Monsoon Session of Parliament. The amendments made by Rajya

Sabha in the Constitution One Hundred and Twenty Second Amendment Bill, 2016 as

passed by Lok Sabha and as reported by the Select Committee of Rajya Sabha, have been

now laid on the Table of the Lok Sabha and will be taken up by the House next week.

From the perspective of India’s travel services sector, currently saddled with multiple

taxes, levied by both the center and the states, optimization of taxes and ease of doing

business has been the key ask of our industry and hence the GST bill passage even more

welcome!

Under the GST regime, it is expected that supplies of hotels and restaurants, a major cost

component of tour services, will be subjected to a single tax, resulting in fungibility,

reduction in the cascading effect of taxes and hence increased cost efficiencies to benefit

travellers. However, for this benefit to play out effectively, it is necessary that all the

B2B supplies are made fully creditable and the credit flow is seamless across the states.

This aspect will probably require some deliberations.

Under the unaltered inflation targeting framework, ICRA expects lower CPI inflation in

H2 FY2017 to create space for additional monetary easing of 25 bps in 2016, regardless

of the imminent appointment of the MPC and a new RBI Governor.

RBI's inflation target of 5% seems to be on track, unless things turn sour. The dramatic

run-up in recent CPI inflation is mainly driven by food. But if rains continue to be strong

in August, taking reservoir levels to above normal, the 110 bp fresh food price rise and

the 40bp excess pulse inflation could reverse, taking inflation from 6.5% now, to RBI's

target of 5% by early 2017. Meanwhile, although core prices fell noticeably in June, the

trend may not last because PMI Manufacturing corporate margins have begun to rise back

up in July as producers have started to raise output prices. In short, food prices will have

to do all the hard work. While waiting for rains to unfold, the RBI is expected to be on

hold in the upcoming 9 August policy meeting; while still holding on to the

accommodative commentary. We expect issues such as liquidity returning to normal but

lack of commensurate monetary transmission and structural reforms that aid further

disinflation to be discussed during governor Rajan's last monetary policy as RBI

governor. We expect a final 25bp rate cut in 4Q if rains are sufficient. CPI inflation

increased to 6.07% in July 2016 new base 2012=100, compared with 5.77% in June 2016.

The Wholesale Price Index based inflation for June 2016 surged 1.62% from a level of

0.79 % in the previous month.

The Reserve Bank of India will transfer Rs. 658.76 billion surplus as dividend to the

government for 2015-16, Rs. 200 million less than the previous year's Rs. 658.96 billion.

Drilling holes into government claims of huge subsidy savings from direct benefit

transfer, the CAG said only Rs. 17.64 billion in subsidy was saved on LPG on account of

the scheme and the bulk of Rs. 215.52 billion was due to sharp fall in global prices.

The Department of Telecom has ‘suspended’ spectrum sharing, trading and liberalisation

activities till the provisional results of the upcoming spectrum auction are declared.

Foreign investment will now be able to flow into financial services such as commodity

broking and other such areas not covered in the 18 areas specified for non-banking

financial companies.

Government approved Rs15.54bn R&D project to develop advanced ultra super critical

technology for thermal power plants, a move that would ensure energy security.

Petrol price was cut by Rs. 1.42/l and diesel by Rs. 2.01/l, the third reduction in rates this

month on global cues

Foreign direct investment inflows grew 7% to USD10.55bn during the first quarter

against USD9.88bn in Jan-Mar 2015.

Overseas investors have infused over Rs126bn into country's equity markets this month,

making it highest inflow in four months on rising hopes of passage of the GST Bill.

✍ TOP CORPORATE NEWS -

Escorts announced the divestment of its OEM and export business of auto products

division to Pune’s Badve Engineering. The company, however, did not disclose the deal

size.

GVK Power & Infrastructure Ltd has said it is hopeful of bagging the mandate to

develop the Navi Mumbai greenfield airport project.

GVK Power & Infrastructure Ltd said it was in advanced stage of negotiations to sell

one of its BOT road projects as part of its ongoing efforts to reduce the debt levels.

Oil and Natural Gas Corp and its partners will invest Rs8.23bn to produce natural gas

from coal seams of its Bokaro block in Jharkhand from 2017-18.

Aurobindo Pharma will set up a facility to manufacture 50mn dosages of vaccines Per

Annum as it plans to launch its vaccine products commercially in 2018.

In a big blow to Infosys Limited, the Royal Bank of Scotland has canceled a major

contract that will impact as many as 3,000 of Infosys employees and impact revenues for

the year by about USD 40 million.

Yes Bank Limited plans to raise USD 1 billion about Rs. 68.85 billion through QIP in

the next 7 months for which it has started engagement with large investors across

geographies.

Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited has started an 'Innovation Lab' in Bengaluru to tap into

the best technology that impacts its operations, and is open to investing in start ups.

Hindustan Copper Limited has inaugurated the country's first facility to produce nickel,

a metal for which the country is completely dependent on imports. The new facility--

Nickel, Copper and Acid Recovery Plant is located at the company's Indian Copper

Complex at Ghatshila in Jharkhand.

Maruti Suzuki India plans to bring more products with hybrid technology over the next

few years as concern for safeguarding environment increases in India.

Hindalco's Industries Limited Novelis unit will launch a bond sale in the US to raise as

much as USD 1.1 billion to refinance debt.

Rivigo has ordered 1,200 medium and heavy commercial vehicles from Ashok Leyland

Limited for its pan-India fleet.

Bharti Airtel announced launch of 4G service in Kharagpur, becoming the first operator

to unveil the service in Bengal telecom circle using dual spectrum bands of 2300MHz and

1800MHz.

Thermax Limited said it plans to made an additional investment of up to Rs. 60 million

in First Energy Pvt Ltd, alternative energy solutions company.

Infosys Limited, India's second largest software firm has built an internal predictive

analytics tool that identifies top performers, measure organisation health and look at

potential talent that is exploring outside to help retain them.

Niti Aayog has identified some of the subsidiaries of the Steel Authority of India Limited

for strategic sale.

Rane Engine Valve Limited has sold its 6.8 acres in Alandur, Chennai, for Rs. 948

million.

✍ TOP BANKING AND FINANCIAL NEWS OF THE WEEK

State-run lenders may offer concessional finance to private companies bidding for key

projects abroad as part of a strategy to step up strategic investment overseas. The

government is considering a mechanism to ensure the viability of such lending, said

officials aware of the matter.

"A committee will be formed with the finance ministry which will look into the issue,"

one of them said. "Infrastructure projects in those countries where India has both strategic

and economic interest will be given preference." Panel members will include the deputy

national security adviser and officials from other ministries including external affairs and

commerce.

Finding banks working under the fear of CBI and CVC as "bizzare", a Parliamentary

panel has asked lenders to take decision on financing of stressed assets as per their "own

wisdom" and on the basis of the project's viability. Finding that total NPAs of Rs 2.6 lakh

crore may go up to Rs 4 lakh crore on account of defaulting infrastructure projects, the

Parliamentary Standing Committee on Transport, headed by Kanwar Deep Singh, also

recommended banks can be empowered to make recovery of bad debts.

The stock market may have given the thumbs up to the State Bank of India for its first

quarter results, but some analysts said that investors must beware of hidden bad loans that

may emerge once the government appoints a new chief at the state-run lender in October.

SBI's shares gained 7.16% on the National Stock Exchange to close at Rs 243.20 on

Friday after it declared lower-than-estimated bad loans in the quarter to June.

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