Equity & Debt Strategy - Kotak Mahindra Bank · L&T Hybrid Equity Fund (erstwhile L&T India...
Transcript of Equity & Debt Strategy - Kotak Mahindra Bank · L&T Hybrid Equity Fund (erstwhile L&T India...
Equity & Debt Strategy
Mid Aug – Sept’ 2018
Equity Market Update &
Equity MF Strategy
Confidential | 3
Nifty 50 rose 6% coupled with Midcap Index rising 3.8% in July
17,700
18,200
18,700
19,200
19,700
20,200
10,100
10,300
10,500
10,700
10,900
11,100
11,300
11,500
25-Jun 1-Jul 7-Jul 13-Jul 19-Jul 25-Jul 31-Jul
NIFTY Index Nsemcap index
Expectations of
strong 1QFY19
earning results
Weak Chinese
GDP print &
widening trade
deficit of India
Govt announced
MSPs for most
Kharif cropsUS & EU
agreement to de-
escalate trade
tensions
BJP wins no-
confidence
motion
RBI rate hike
-6,130-9,276
-2,526
517
-2,750
1,372
4,858
-1,292
11,16713,085
9,105
5,460
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18
FII DII excl MF MF
Nifty 50 rises to all-time high in July along with recovery in
Midcap 100 FII selling reversed leading to recovery in markets
76% of top 500 stocks are below their 31st Jan ‘18 value,
highlighting the divergence between Large cap & Mid cap
performance
Source: Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE), AMFIAs of 2nd August, 2018
cr
Net Flows to Equity Mutual Funds fell below 10k cr this
month
cr
13,446 13,083
10,6239,639
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18
Net investment in Cash market
Note: April excludes Arbitrage Funds
> 207%
10 to 208%
0 to 108%
0 to -1019%
-10 to -2021%
-20 to -3018%
< -3018%
As of 31st July 2018
Confidential | 4
Emerging Markets impacted due to trade war, tapering liquidity and high crude oil prices; India protected till now due to strong Domestic flows
Since 31st Jan, Emerging markets have corrected by 13%,
Nifty 50 has been an outlier
Crude prices have started to stabilize, OPEC has increased
production in last few months by ~1mn bpd
QE Unwind program is gaining pace, Fed Balance sheet
leaner by $188 bn in last 1 Year
As of 2nd August 2018Source: Bloomberg
40
50
60
70
80
30.5
31.5
32.5
33.5
34.5
Oct16
Dec16
Feb17
Apr17
Jun17
Aug17
Oct17
Dec17
Feb18
Apr18
Jun18
Aug18
OPEC supply (mn bpd) Crude $/BBL RHS
US Yield curve at risk of inversion due to Fed hikes
impacting short term rates while market-linked long term
rates remain steady
4,150,000
4,200,000
4,250,000
4,300,000
4,350,000
4,400,000
4,450,000
4,500,000
4,550,000
Au
g 1
4
Oct
14
Dec 1
4
Fe
b 1
5
Ap
r 15
Ju
n 1
5
Au
g 1
5
Oct
15
Dec 1
5
Fe
b 1
6
Ap
r 16
Ju
n 1
6
Au
g 1
6
Oct
16
Dec 1
6
Fe
b 1
7
Ap
r 17
Ju
n 1
7
Au
g 1
7
Oct
17
Dec 1
7
Fe
b 1
8
Ap
r 18
Ju
n 1
8
2.9%
-9.0%
-13.4%
-18.9%
-10.1%
-13.8%
-5.7%
-0.4%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
Nifty 50 NiftyMidcap
MSCI EM Shanghai SouthKorea
Hongkong Thailand US
$ Mn
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50US 2 Yr G-sec US 30 Yr G-sec
Confidential | 5
4.5
-0.6
5.2
20.517.6
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18
Export Growth (%YOY)
71.271.8
74.1
75.2
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
Q1 FY17-18 Q2 FY17-18 Q3 FY17-18 Q4 FY17-18
Capacity Utilisation
Capacity utilisation has risen to 75.2%, highlights factories’
strong order flow
PMI further strengthened to 54.1, Services sees strongest
growth since October 2016
Personal loans continue to grow while credit to services
grew due to NBFC accessing bank credit over bond market
Export growth strengthened on the back of petrochem and
metal exports, labour intensive sectors like textile still
under stress
Source: KIE, NomuraYoY% growth
Domestic Economy showing greenshoots in both Consumption and Manufacturing, Credit & Exports also picking up
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Credit growth (services) Credit growth (industry)
Credit growth (personal loans)
49.7
50.8
51.9
50.4
53.3
54.1
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18
Confidential | 6
Earnings and Valuation
Post recent correction, Mid Caps still at a 13% premium
over large caps
Q1FY2018 PAT for our universe has grown by 24.3% so far,
Nifty PAT impacted by Bank provisioning and Tata motors
FY19 earnings outlook relatively stable compared to FY17
and FY18We expect 24% Nifty 50 Earnings growth for FY19 and FY20
21.126.9
43.6
13.0
29.0
20.0 20.2
-
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
Auto Banking Consumers Energy Pharma Tech Nifty 50
PE 2019E
400.00
450.00
500.00
550.00
600.00
650.00
700.00
Apr 15 Oct 15 Apr 16 Oct 16 Apr 17 Oct 17 Apr 18
FY2019
FY2018
FY2017
Source: Bloomberg, KIE * Based on KIE Estimates on free float basis.As of 2nd August 2018
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17 Jul 17 Jan 18 Jul 18
12m Forward PE of Mid Cap over Large Cap
Nifty Mid cap
Nifty 50
13% Premium
-42.6
13.4
0.1 3.9
-0.1
-22.9-16.7
1.25.7
-11.8 -9.4
13.4
(45.3)
(11.0)
21.7
47.6
(4.0)
58.5
38.2
14.1 12.4
24.3
(60.0)
(40.0)
(20.0)
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0 Actual/Expected % YoY Growth
Confidential | 7
Key Triggers
• Global Economic data : World economy improving
• Q1 Earnings: Several companies posted strong growth in current quarter
• Resolution of NPA: Effective addressal of NCLT lists
• Weaker Rupee: Benefit export-oriented sectors like Auto, Chemicals, IT and Pharma
• Monsoon/Rural recovery: Government focus on rural economyincluding increase of MSP could benefit rural consumption
Positive Triggers
• Trade Wars: Further tariffs imposed by US/China and strict enforcement of Iran sanctions
• Monetary Policy: Faster than expected monetary tightening in Europe and US
• Weaker Macro: Higher crude prices and low GST collection could lead to de-rating of Equity valuations
• Elections: A combined opposition can be threat to BJP in next elections
Risks
Confidential | 8
India Equities: Valuations & Strategy – Maintain Neutral Stance
Nifty rose 6% for the month to life time high levels on the back of stable macro and a good start to the earnings seasons. MidcapIndex also recovered and rose 4% for the month. However Year To Date (YTD) the divergence between Nifty 50 and Midcap 100continues with the former clocking a gain of ~8%, while the latter slipped ~11%. In terms of flows, SIP flows reduced marginally,while FIIs turned positive after 3 consecutive months of outflows.
At current levels of approx. 11,355 (13th August 2018), Nifty is trading at a 1 year forward PE of 19.7X. In the current scenario, wecontinue to maintain a Neutral stance..
Mutual Funds: As domestic liquidity continues to drive markets, we advise new investments to be staggered in Mutual Funds viaSIPs/STPs.
Recommended allocation within equity mutual funds is as under:
• 50% Large Cap allocation (Prefer Large Caps due to relatively Favorable Valuations)
• 50% Multi Cap allocation (such funds currently have a bias toward large cap)
• For investors who want equity exposure but have low appetite for volatility, they can take equity exposure through
Balanced Funds. Balanced funds have around 25% to 30% of their portfolio into Debt instruments which provides cushion
to the portfolio return during market volatility.
Source: EPS Estimates by KIE
Confidential | 9
Recommended Large Cap, Multi Cap & Balanced Fund Performances
Source: MFI ExplorerReturns are CAGR as on August 10, 2018 and for Regular Plans with Growth option. Corpus size is as on July, 2018.
Scheme Name Corpus (In crs.) 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years Investor Suitability
Large Cap Funds
Aditya Birla Sun Life Frontline Equity Fund 21,380 9.26 10.15 19.61 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Axis Bluechip Fund 2,568 23.64 12.39 18.69 All Risk Profiles except Secure
ICICI Prudential Bluechip Fund (erstwhile ICICI Prudential Focused Bluechip Equity Fund) 18,747 13.83 11.52 19.10 All Risk Profiles except Secure
SBI Bluechip Fund 19,064 9.28 9.97 20.61 All Risk Profiles except Secure
UTI Nifty Next 50 Index Fund 228 - - - All Risk Profiles except Secure
Large & Mid Cap Funds
Aditya Birla Sun Life Equity Advantage Fund (erstwhile Aditya Birla Sun Life Advantage Fund) 6,342 6.96 11.75 25.29 All Risk Profiles except Secure
IDFC Core Equity Fund (erstwhilr IDFC Classic Equity Fund) 2,763 10.49 12.23 17.80 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Invesco India Growth Opportunities Fund (erstwhile Invesco India Growth Fund) 774 18.05 12.43 21.49 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Kotak Equity Opportunities Fund (erstwhile Kotak Opportunities Fund) 2,560 8.47 10.68 20.56 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Mirae Asset Emerging Bluechip Fund 5,351 13.31 16.52 33.68 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Multi Cap Funds (Multi Cap/ Value/ Focused/ Dividend Yield/ Contra)
Axis Focused 25 Fund 5,499 24.50 15.75 21.70 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Kotak Standard Multicap Fund (erstwhile Kotak Select Focus Fund) 21,271 12.66 12.73 23.34 All Risk Profiles except Secure
L&T India Value Fund 8,160 8.40 11.95 27.59 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Mirae Asset India Equity Fund (erstwhile Mirae Asset India Opportunities Fund) 7,945 13.55 13.25 23.63 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Motilal Oswal Multicap 35 Fund 13,016 9.58 13.11 - All Risk Profiles except Secure
Mid & Small Cap Funds (Mid Cap/Small Cap)
Aditya Birla Sun Life Small Cap Fund (erstwhile Aditya Birla Sun Life Small & Midcap Fund ) 2,247 7.81 14.57 28.43 All Risk Profiles except Secure
HDFC Small Cap Fund 4,578 24.27 17.71 25.40 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Kotak Emerging Equity Scheme 3,327 10.95 12.61 30.69 All Risk Profiles except Secure
L&T Midcap Fund 3,066 10.23 14.73 31.44 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Aggressive Hybrid Funds
Aditya Birla Sun Life Equity Hybrid '95 (erstwhile Aditya Birla Sun Life Balanced 95) 14,841 7.24 9.78 18.87 All Risk Profiles except Secure
L&T Hybrid Equity Fund (erstwhile L&T India Prudence Fund) 10,936 7.74 9.62 19.62 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Reliance Equity Hybrid Fund 14,203 7.53 10.46 19.79 All Risk Profiles except Secure
SBI Equity Hybrid Fund (erstwhile SBI Magnum Balanced Fund) 24,959 12.59 9.99 19.03 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Balanced Advantage Funds (Balanced Advantage OR Dynamic Asset Allocation)
ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund 28,547 8.15 8.72 15.51 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Kotak Balanced Advantage Fund - - - - All Risk Profiles except Secure
Indices
Nifty 16.39 10.25 15.45
Debt Market Update &
Debt MF Strategy
Confidential | 11
Indicators
Policy Action
• Rate hiked by 25bps to 6.50%• Tone was neutral highlighting both growth and
inflation risks• We now expect RBI to keep a hold on hikes for
remaining year
Inflation
• RBI increased expectation of 2HFY19 to 4.8% from earlier 4.7%
• We expect March 2019 CPI to be In line with RBI estimate• Risks such as MSP impact, crude prices, fiscal slippages
and weak INR could be at play
10 Year G-Sec Benchmark Yield• G-Sec segment expected to remain within 7.70% -
8.00%• We continue to believe that this will be a shallow rate
hike cycle
Liquidity• Liquidity expected to tighten going forward• Quantum and frequency of OMO Purchase key trigger for
liquidity
INR• FII outflows and CAD put pressure on INR, RBI expected to
support INR• Broad range of 67-69 to hold
Key Risks• Global monetary tightening• Increase in Inflation expectation• Crude Prices• Fiscal Deficit
G-Sec Supply• RBI has done 3 OMO of 30,000 cr• Weak demand sentiment and low volumes
Debt Market: Key Variables
Confidential | 12
Long end yield softened by ~10 bps due to balanced commentary by RBI monetary committee
-252
-1,000
0
1,000
Am
ou
nt
in R
s. B
n
128
7.78
6.50
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
5.75
6.25
6.75
7.25
7.75
Spre
ad (
bp
s)
% Y
ield
Spread 10 Year G Sec Repo Rate
Despite rate hike, 10 Year spread over repo still at high level
35
-11 -14 -17 -19-16 -11
-70
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
6.80
7.20
7.60
8.00
1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 8Y 10Y
Sp
read
(b
ps
)
% Y
ield
Change Current G-Sec Yield 1M earlier G-Sec Yield
Shorter tenure yields increased due to rate hike
Liquidity below neutral due to rising cash levels and
quarterly tax payments
Rising household inflation expectation and core
inflation are a concern
Note: As of 8th August 2018, Source Bloomberg
5.00%
6.35%
Aug17
Sep17
Oct 17 Nov17
Dec17
Jan18
Feb18
Mar18
Apr18
May18
Jun18
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
CPI Core Inflation
Confidential | 13
Fall in Crude prices helped reduce FII selling pressure
52379
1,191
-142
-803
-2,105
-2,538
-1,712
2
Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18
-3,000
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
US
D M
illi
on
FII selling was subdued in July, FIIs have sold ~7bn USD
since 31st Jan 2018
68.66
Sep17
Oct17
Nov17
Dec17
Jan18
Feb18
Mar18
Apr18
May18
Jun18
Jul18
Aug18
63.0
64.0
65.0
66.0
67.0
68.0
69.0
70.0
Indian currency has been stable for the last 2 months,
depreciated by ~7.5% in 2018
964.83
Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
GST collections improving, breakeven rate close to 1.05
bn/month
Note: As of 8th August 2018, Source Bloomberg, Nomura
72.28
Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
Brent price reduced to $72/bbl ,still above Fiscal
estimates based on $68/bbl
$/bbl
Rs bn
Confidential | 14
Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
Public Banks Private Banks Mutual Funds
After consecutive months of selling, PSU Banks have
turned net buyers, MF selling as investors exit high
duration funds
1.30
1.17
Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.4 Spread of Credit Fund over AAA Fund
Additional spread of Credit Funds over AAA have reduced
slightly due to increase in AAA yields, hence we prefer funds
with AAA, AA allocation from risk-reward perspective
Debt Market Trends
Note: As of 8th August 2018, Source Bloomberg, MFI
CCIL Gsec Net buying
Rs cr
Liq
uid
Ult
raS
ho
rt/L
ow
Du
rati
on
/Mo
ne
y…
Sh
ort
Te
rm/C
orp
ora
te
Bo
nd
/Ban
kin
g
Me
diu
m/
Cre
dit
Fu
nd
s
Me
diu
mto
Lo
ng
/Dyn
am
ic/
Gilt
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
In Last 1 Year , Liquid Funds have outperformed other
Debt categories due to marked to market impact
5.5
5.7
5.9
6.1
6.3
6.5
6.7
6.9
Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18
7.5
7.7
7.9
8.1
8.3
8.5
8.7
8.9
NABARD AAA 2028 NABARD Tax Free 2031 (RHS)
Tax Free yields have been stagnant while AAA yields of
same bonds have increased by ~50 bps in last 6 months
Credit Fund – L&T and Kotak Credit RiskAAA Fund – ICICI Pru Bond Fund, IDFC Corporate Bond Fund
Confidential | 15
India Fixed Income: Strategy
Substantial part of the portfolio should be deployed through a mix of high rated and credit accrual strategies. Exit from duration funds only for investors who have completed 3 years and can deploy with another 3 years view.
Investment Focus:
Passive Accrual-Oriented Debt funds
High quality portfolios (~100% AAA / Sovereign) Portfolio is run on a passive accrual basis i.e buying a bond and holding it till maturity thereby earning from the accruing of
interest Higher predictability of return, lower volatility & lower interest rate risk
High Yield Credit-Oriented Funds
Low volatility on account of maturity of portfolio between 3 – 5 years, attractive and stable accrual yields Experienced teams to carefully evaluate and tightly monitor high yielding debt instruments
Short Term Bond Funds
Actively managed to run a low avg. maturity of 2-3 years, attractive risk-reward Lower volatility and interest rate risk than Dynamic Bond Funds, better suited from a risk-adjusted basis in volatile markets
For investments up to 3 months, prefer Ultra Short Term FundsFor investments for atleast 6 months, prefer a mix of Ultra Short Term Funds and Arbitrage Funds.
Source : AMCs, other Financial websites
Confidential | 16
Recommended Short Term Bond, High Yield & Debt Others Performances
Source: MFI ExplorerScheme Returns are as on Aug 10, 2018 and for Regular Plans with Growth option. Corpus size is as on July 31, 2018.
Scheme Name TierCorpus (In
crs.)6m 1Yr 2Yr Investor Suitability
Short Term 1-3 yrs (Corporate Bond/ Banking & PSU/Short Duration)
Aditya Birla Sun Life Corporate Bond Fund I 15,654 5.99 5.02 6.87 All Risk Profiles except Secure
HDFC Banking and PSU Debt Fund I 3,178 4.27 4.19 6.41 All Risk Profiles except Secure
ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund I 5,590 5.57 3.63 6.65 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Kotak Banking and PSU Debt Fund I 1,022 5.27 4.46 6.63 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Axis Banking & PSU Debt Fund II 816 6.49 6.24 7.08 All Risk Profiles
IDFC Banking & PSU Debt Fund II 717 5.98 4.81 5.90 All Risk Profiles
L&T Triple Ace Bond Fund II 213 3.54 2.63 3.61 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Sundaram Corporate Bond Fund II 382 3.16 1.91 5.27 All Risk Profiles
Medium & Credit Risk Funds (Medium Duration/Credit Risk)
Kotak Credit Risk Fund I 5,286 6.08 5.35 7.06 All Risk Profiles except Secure
L&T Credit Risk Fund I 3,882 5.15 4.79 7.02 All Risk Profiles except Secure
UTI Medium Term Fund I 227 5.10 4.89 7.11 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Aditya Birla Sun Life Credit Risk Fund II 7,869 7.13 5.70 8.15 All Risk Profiles except Secure
BOI AXA Credit Risk Fund II 1,649 8.33 7.61 9.09All Risk Profiles except Secure & Conservative
ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund II 11,147 6.74 5.57 7.30 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Dynamic Debt (Medium to Long Duration/ Dynamic Bond/Gilt)ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund (erstwhile ICICI Prudential Long Term Plan) I 2,088 5.69 2.41 6.85 All Risk Profiles except SecureICICI Prudential Gilt Fund (erstwhile ICICI Prudential Long Term Gilt Fund) I 1,208 7.70 0.25 5.25 All Risk Profiles except SecureUTI Dynamic Bond Fund I 1,269 5.23 1.46 6.50 All Risk Profiles except SecureUTI Gilt Fund I 505 6.41 0.41 6.61 All Risk Profiles except SecureICICI Prudential Bond Fund (erstwhile ICICI Prudential Income Opportunities Fund) II 3,181 2.95 1.91 5.24 All Risk Profiles
Confidential | 17
DisclaimerThe aforesaid is for information purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice under SEBI (Investment Advisory) Regulations.
In the preparation of the material contained in this document, Kotak Mahindra Bank has used information that is publicly available, including information developed in-house. Some of the material used in the document may have been obtained from members/persons other than the Kotak Mahindra Bank and/or its affiliates and which mayhave been made available to Kotak Mahindra Bank and/or its affiliates. Information gathered & material used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources. KotakMahindra Bank however does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and/or completeness of any information. For data reference to any third party in this material nosuch party will assume any liability for the same. Kotak Mahindra Bank and/or any affiliate of Kotak Mahindra Bank does not in any way through this material solicit any offerfor purchase, sale or any financial transaction/commodities/products of any financial instrument dealt in this material. All recipients of this material should before dealingand or transacting in any of the products referred to in this material make their own investigation, seek appropriate professional advice
We have included statements/opinions/recommendations in this document which contain words or phrases such as "will", "expect" "should" and similar expressions orvariations of such expressions, that are "forward looking statements". Actual results may differ materially from those suggested by the forward looking statements due torisks or uncertainties associated with our expectations with respect to, but not limited to, exposure to market risks, general economic and political conditions in India andother countries globally, which have an impact on our services and / or investments, the monetary and interest policies of India, inflation, deflation, unanticipatedturbulence in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices or other rates or prices, the performance of the financial markets in India and globally, changes indomestic and foreign laws, regulations and taxes and changes in competition in the industry. By their nature, certain market risk disclosures are only estimates and could bematerially different from what actually occurs in the future. As a result, actual future gains or losses could materially differ from those that have been estimated
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Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.