Equirus Securities TCI Express Management Meet Note… · TCI XPS has had a much better margin...

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March 10, 2018 Analyst: Depesh Kashyap [email protected](+91-7228934327) Page 1 of 10 Before reading this report, you must refer to the disclaimer on the last page. TCI Express Absolute : NA Relative : NA Management meet note NOT RATED The Road has just begun Logistics © 2018 Equirus All rights reserved Rating Information Price (Rs) 463 Target Price (Rs) NA Target Date NA Target Set On NA Implied yrs of growth (DCF) NA Fair Value (DCF) NA Fair Value (DDM) NA Ind Benchmark SPBSMIP Model Portfolio Position NA Stock Information Market Cap (Rs Mn) 17,726 Free Float (%) 33.9% 52 Wk H/L (Rs) 667/299.1 Avg Daily Volume (1yr) 44,998 Avg Daily Value (Rs Mn) 22.8 Equity Cap (Rs Mn) 77 Face Value (Rs) 2 Bloomberg Code TCIEXP IN Ownership Recent 3M 12M Promoters 66.1% 0.0% 0.0% DII 10.2% -0.1% 0.7% FII 3.2% 0.2% 1.2% Public 20.5% -0.2% -1.9% Price % 1M 3M 12M Absolute -6.6% -17.7% 53.7% Vs Industry -2.7% -11.5% 34.3% GTIC -13.3% -26.6% -21.7% BDE -6.5% -2.1% -5.5% We recently met the management of TCI Express (TCI XPS) to understand the overall growth potential of the Indian logistics sector and the company in particular. Established in 1996 as one of the foremost divisions of Transport Corporation of India Limited (TCIL), TCI XPS came to light after its demerger from TCI in 2016. The company’s revenue/EBITDA grew at 8%/10% CAGR over FY13-FY17, and over 9MFY18, revenue/EBITDA growth accelerated to 16%/44% yoy as EBITDA margins expanded 190bps yoy. With a clear focus on being asset-light, TCI XPS has strong ROEs of 29%, Net D/E at 0.1x and is currently trading at 26x/21x on FY19/FY20 consensus EPS estimates. We do not have a rating on the stock but in our view, it’s a good play on evolving logistics industry post GST. Organized/bigger players to benefit post GST, E-way Bill rollout: Post GST, most businesses are redesigning their supply chains based on efficiencies instead of state-wise tax structures. Industry expects consolidation of warehouses ahead, which may necessitate more timely delivery of goods and hence benefit the express logistics sector. Moreover, the Electronic way (E-way) bill rollout expected on 1 Apr’18 will require a robust IT infrastructure, leading to a business shift towards organized players. Set to be a major beneficiary of sector tailwinds: TCI XPS has grown its revenues at 8% CAGR over FY13-FY17. The company saw flattish growth in FY16 when it decided to drop low-margin customers; however, revenue growth picked up to 14% in FY17 and was even better at 16% yoy in 9MFY18. Going forward, as demand for express logistics increases and business shifts from unorganized to organized players, TCI XPS shall grow at a 15% CAGR over the next 3-4 years in line with the industry. Margin profile to improve further with operational efficiencies, lower rental costs: TCI XPS has had a much better margin profile vs. peers in the logistics business due to its sole focus on express logistics. The company is confident of improving EBITDA margins by 100bps every year for the next 3-4 years. Of its 28 sorting centers, TCI XPS owns only 8 while the rest are on lease. Management intends to own more sorting centers in the coming years and also increase the size of its sorting centers, which should lead to better operational efficiencies and bring down rental costs. Valuation: TCI XPS currently trades at 26x/21x on FY19/FY20 consensus EPS estimates which is at 10-15% discount to industry average.(Exhibit 16) Standalone Financials Rs. Mn YE Mar FY15A FY16A FY17A Sales 6,586 6,632 7,539 EBITDA 516 544 663 Depreciation 60 58 43 Interest Expense 58 53 19 Other Income 3 2 14 Reported PAT 263 283 407 Recurring PAT 263 283 407 Total Equity 1,154 1,230 1,600 Gross Debt 6 403 310 Cash 71 109 88 Rs Per Share FY15A FY16A FY17A Earnings 6.9 7.4 10.6 Book Value - - 42 Dividends - - 0.0 FCFF - - 14.5 P/E (x) 67.5 62.7 43.5 P/B (x) - - 11.1 EV/EBITDA (x) 34.2 33.2 27.1 ROE (%) 45% 24% 29% Core ROIC (%) 51% 22% 23% EBITDA Margin (%) 8% 8% 9% Net Margin (%) 4% 4% 5%

Transcript of Equirus Securities TCI Express Management Meet Note… · TCI XPS has had a much better margin...

Page 1: Equirus Securities TCI Express Management Meet Note… · TCI XPS has had a much better margin profile vs. peers in the logistics business due to its sole focus on express logistics.

March 10, 2018 Analyst: Depesh Kashyap [email protected](+91-7228934327) Page 1 of 10

Before reading this report, you must refer to the disclaimer on the last page.

TCI Express Absolute : NA

Relative : NA

Management meet note NOT RATED

The Road has just begun Logistics

© 2018 Equirus All rights reserved

Rating Information

Price (Rs) 463

Target Price (Rs) NA

Target Date NA

Target Set On NA

Implied yrs of growth (DCF) NA

Fair Value (DCF) NA

Fair Value (DDM) NA

Ind Benchmark SPBSMIP

Model Portfolio Position NA

Stock Information

Market Cap (Rs Mn) 17,726

Free Float (%) 33.9%

52 Wk H/L (Rs) 667/299.1

Avg Daily Volume (1yr) 44,998

Avg Daily Value (Rs Mn) 22.8

Equity Cap (Rs Mn) 77

Face Value (Rs) 2

Bloomberg Code TCIEXP IN

Ownership Recent 3M 12M

Promoters 66.1% 0.0% 0.0%

DII 10.2% -0.1% 0.7%

FII 3.2% 0.2% 1.2%

Public 20.5% -0.2% -1.9%

Price % 1M 3M 12M

Absolute -6.6% -17.7% 53.7%

Vs Industry -2.7% -11.5% 34.3%

GTIC -13.3% -26.6% -21.7%

BDE -6.5% -2.1% -5.5%

We recently met the management of TCI Express (TCI XPS) to understand the overall

growth potential of the Indian logistics sector and the company in particular.

Established in 1996 as one of the foremost divisions of Transport Corporation of India

Limited (TCIL), TCI XPS came to light after its demerger from TCI in 2016. The

company’s revenue/EBITDA grew at 8%/10% CAGR over FY13-FY17, and over 9MFY18,

revenue/EBITDA growth accelerated to 16%/44% yoy as EBITDA margins expanded

190bps yoy. With a clear focus on being asset-light, TCI XPS has strong ROEs of 29%,

Net D/E at 0.1x and is currently trading at 26x/21x on FY19/FY20 consensus EPS

estimates. We do not have a rating on the stock but in our view, it’s a good play on

evolving logistics industry post GST.

Organized/bigger players to benefit post GST, E-way Bill rollout: Post GST, most

businesses are redesigning their supply chains based on efficiencies instead of

state-wise tax structures. Industry expects consolidation of warehouses ahead,

which may necessitate more timely delivery of goods and hence benefit the express

logistics sector. Moreover, the Electronic way (E-way) bill rollout expected on 1

Apr’18 will require a robust IT infrastructure, leading to a business shift towards

organized players.

Set to be a major beneficiary of sector tailwinds: TCI XPS has grown its revenues

at 8% CAGR over FY13-FY17. The company saw flattish growth in FY16 when it

decided to drop low-margin customers; however, revenue growth picked up to 14%

in FY17 and was even better at 16% yoy in 9MFY18. Going forward, as demand for

express logistics increases and business shifts from unorganized to organized players,

TCI XPS shall grow at a 15% CAGR over the next 3-4 years in line with the industry.

Margin profile to improve further with operational efficiencies, lower rental costs:

TCI XPS has had a much better margin profile vs. peers in the logistics business due

to its sole focus on express logistics. The company is confident of improving EBITDA

margins by 100bps every year for the next 3-4 years. Of its 28 sorting centers, TCI

XPS owns only 8 while the rest are on lease. Management intends to own more

sorting centers in the coming years and also increase the size of its sorting centers,

which should lead to better operational efficiencies and bring down rental costs. Valuation: TCI XPS currently trades at 26x/21x on FY19/FY20 consensus EPS

estimates which is at 10-15% discount to industry average.(Exhibit 16)

Standalone Financials

Rs. Mn YE Mar FY15A FY16A FY17A

Sales 6,586 6,632 7,539

EBITDA 516 544 663

Depreciation 60 58 43

Interest Expense 58 53 19

Other Income 3 2 14

Reported PAT 263 283 407

Recurring PAT 263 283 407

Total Equity 1,154 1,230 1,600

Gross Debt 6 403 310

Cash 71 109 88

Rs Per Share FY15A FY16A FY17A

Earnings 6.9 7.4 10.6

Book Value - - 42

Dividends - - 0.0

FCFF - - 14.5

P/E (x) 67.5 62.7 43.5

P/B (x) - - 11.1

EV/EBITDA (x) 34.2 33.2 27.1

ROE (%) 45% 24% 29%

Core ROIC (%) 51% 22% 23%

EBITDA Margin (%) 8% 8% 9%

Net Margin (%) 4% 4% 5%

Page 2: Equirus Securities TCI Express Management Meet Note… · TCI XPS has had a much better margin profile vs. peers in the logistics business due to its sole focus on express logistics.

TCI Express Management meet note Not Rated

March 10, 2018 Analysts: Depesh Kashyap [email protected](+91-7228934327) Page 2 of 14

Industry overview

Exhibit 1: Logistics account for ~13% of GDP for India vs. ~18% for China

Source: Company, Equirus Securities

Exhibit 2: In India, transportation medium break-up is heavily skewed towards roads

Source: Company, Equirus Securities

Exhibit 3: Key segments of the Indian logistics Industry

Source: FSC Company Presentation, Equirus Securities; # Part of overall road transport industry

Exhibit 4: Express services have very attractive industry positioning

Source: FSC Company Presentation, A&M Industry report, Equirus Securities

13%

18%

8.5%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

India China USA

$bn 2015 nominal GDP at current USD Logistics as a Percentage of GDP (%)

60%

32% 8%

0.1%

Road Rail Water Air

5900

340

245

235

200

110

100#

Road Transport

Others

Container Logsitics (CFS,ICDs,CTO)

Freight Fwding. / NVOCC

Agri Warehousing

Cold Chain

Contract Logistics

Express Services

Market Size (Rs bn)

2065

CAGR %(FY12 –17)

14%

17%

15%

13%

7%

15%

-

14%

Page 3: Equirus Securities TCI Express Management Meet Note… · TCI XPS has had a much better margin profile vs. peers in the logistics business due to its sole focus on express logistics.

TCI Express Management meet note Not Rated

March 10, 2018 Analysts: Depesh Kashyap [email protected](+91-7228934327) Page 3 of 14

Exhibit 5: Various modes and services offered by the logistics industry

Source: Industry, Equirus Securities

Page 4: Equirus Securities TCI Express Management Meet Note… · TCI XPS has had a much better margin profile vs. peers in the logistics business due to its sole focus on express logistics.

TCI Express Management meet note Not Rated

March 10, 2018 Analysts: Depesh Kashyap [email protected](+91-7228934327) Page 4 of 14

Company overview

TCI (TRPC IN) was incorporated in 1958 as a ‘One Man, One Truck, One Office’ company.

Today, it is a leading integrated supply chain and logistics solutions provider and a

pioneer in India’s cargo transportation space. TCI XPS is the express arm of the TCI Group

carved out with mirror image division from Transport Corporation of India (TCI).

TCI XPS, established in 1996 as one of the foremost divisions of TCI, is an express

distribution specialist offering a single window solution to clients through assured door-

to-door courier and express cargo services for time-sensitive delivery. TCI XPS was split

to create a different identity given that TCI primarily focused on traditional

transportation and clients feared of being charged more unnecessarily.

Exhibit 6: Key differentiators between Express and FTL

Key Differentiators Express FTL

Operating model Plying on key routes Catering to towns/rural locations

Key presence Metros and tier-1 cities Tier-2 to tier-4 cities

Key industrial sectors IT & Mobile, FMCG, Apparel, Pharma Textiles (Yarn/Fabric), Agro, Auto

Pricing High Low

Cash conversion cycle High Low

Time sensitive Yes No

Truck fill factor Low High

Competition Route specific Regional

Source: Company, Equirus Securities

Asset-light business model

TCI XPS has a clear focus on express delivery of high-value goods in a time-sensitive

manner; it does not intend to enter the supply chain management part of the business in

which TCIL is present. With a clear vision of being asset–light, TCI XPS does not own a

single truck and its entire fleet is managed by vendors. To avoid vendor concentration

risk, the company has 4,000 vehicles managed by 1,500 vendors, implying that it does not

source more than 2-3 vehicles from a single vendor. Also, on every route, vehicles are

managed by at least 2-3 vendors to avoid any disruptions. Similarly, in terms of

customers, no single client contributes more than 1% of the company’s revenue.

TCI XPS has majorly focussed on the B2B segment (95% of revenue) rather than the B2C

segment (5% of revenue).

Exhibit 7: Service-wise revenue mix (FY17)

Source: Company, Equirus Securities

B2C service offerings (5% of FY17 revenue)

In this segment, TCI XPS has customers like Shopclues, Naptol, and Homeshoppe 18.

According to management, the company’s main focus is on tier II/III towns instead of

tier-1 cities where competition is stiff. While this segment should see good growth off a

low base, management does not plan a major scale-up here as such a move would hurt

profitability. Currently, TCI XPS generates 15-20% EBITDA margins in this segment due to

focus on fewer streets/pin-codes and better service offerings to gain business.

Competitors, on the other hand, have deployed delivery boys on several locations but

their trips are fewer, leading to lower overall profitability.

B2B service offerings (95% of FY17 revenue)

Majority of TCI XPS’s revenues come from the surface express segment, with air express

forming less than 10% of its revenue. As per management, since distances are not that

large in India, roads are the most preferred mode of transportation, more so since air

transportation is very expensive. However, the company wants to grow its air express in

the international market because of better profitability. Unlike Blue Dart, TCI XPS has no

intention of owning aircrafts but would rather use up space within aircraft carriers.

95%

5%

B2B

B2C

Page 5: Equirus Securities TCI Express Management Meet Note… · TCI XPS has had a much better margin profile vs. peers in the logistics business due to its sole focus on express logistics.

TCI Express Management meet note Not Rated

March 10, 2018 Analysts: Depesh Kashyap [email protected](+91-7228934327) Page 5 of 14

Exhibit 8: Product-wise revenue mix (%)

Source: Company, Equirus Securities

Exhibit 9: Industry-wise revenue mix (FY17)

Source: Company, Equirus Securities

As depicted in Exhibit 9, around 50% of revenues come from SMEs and the remaining 50%

from a mix of large corporates across sectors. According to management, within SME, the

industry-wise break-up is similar as in large corporates. While larger clients provide

volume visibility to the company and pay on time, they are price sensitive and hence

fetch lower margins. In contrast, SMEs pay better rates and generate higher margins.

Presence across states provides strong competitive edge

TCI XPS provides pick-up and delivery in 40,000 locations across India, which it manages

through its multiple sorting centres and a widespread branch network.

Branches

TCI XPS currently has around 550 branches across India and all branches are on lease.

Parcels are picked up from the customer’s factory/office and delivered to the nearest

branch. Parcel collection is mainly done by various vendors and the company’s own sales

force called Business Associates (BA). To incentivise BAs to reach out to more number of

customers, they are paid a certain proportion of the revenue they bring to the company.

Going forward, TCI XPS wants to densify its branch network i.e. to open more number of

branches in a particular area, so that they can cater to as many customers as possible.

Sorting centres

TCI XPS currently has 28 sorting centres across India, of which 8 are company-owned and

the rest are on lease. These are larger centres where parcels are brought from various

branches or customers (if nearby), and based on their delivery location and time, are

transported to the destination sorting centres. From destination sorting centres, the

parcel is delivered to the destination branch and then to customers, or directly to

customers, if nearby.

Going forward, the company plans to own more of its sorting centres as well as increase

the area of its sorting centres.

Vendors

TCI XPS does not own a single truck and its entire fleet is managed by vendors. The

company operates 4,000 vehicles, of which 1400 are inter-state, 900 intra-state and

1,700 intra-city vehicles. To avoid any vendor concentration risk, all 4,000 vehicles are

managed by 1,500 vendors, implying that the company does not take more than 2-3

vehicles from a single vendor. Also, on every route, it makes sure that vehicles are

managed by at least 2-3 vendors to avoid any business disruption.

TCI XPS pays vendors on per km basis and the risk of filling the trucks lies on the

company.

86%

1% 8% 5%

Surface Express

Air Intl Express

Air Domestic Express

E-com Express

50%

13%

11%

7%

6%

6%

7% SME

Automotive

Pharma

Engineering

Telecom

Consumer Durables

Lifestyle

Page 6: Equirus Securities TCI Express Management Meet Note… · TCI XPS has had a much better margin profile vs. peers in the logistics business due to its sole focus on express logistics.

TCI Express Management meet note Not Rated

March 10, 2018 Analysts: Depesh Kashyap [email protected](+91-7228934327) Page 6 of 14

Exhibit 10: Simplified workflow for TCI express

Source: Company, Equirus Securities

Financial performance

Revenue to grow at a 15% CAGR over FY18E-20E

TCI XPS has grown its revenues at a 9% CAGR over FY12-FY17. The company saw flattish

growth in FY16 when it decided to drop low-margin customers; however, revenue growth

picked up to 14% in FY17 and was even better at 16% in 9MFY18. Going forward, as

demand for express logistics increases and business shifts from unorganized to organized

players, TCI XPS expects to grow at a 15% CAGR over the next 3-4 years.

Exhibit 11: Revenues have grown at a ~9% CAGR in the last 5 years

Source: Company, Equirus Securities

EBITDA margins expected to expand 300bps over next three years

Due to its sole focus on the express delivery business, TCI XPS has a much better margin

profile than other players in the logistics business. The company is confident of improving

its EBITDA margins by 100bps every year for the next 3-4 years. To expand its margins,

the company is taking the following steps:

a. Owning larger sorting centers to improve efficiencies

Of its 28 sorting centers, TCI XPS owns only 8 while the rest are on lease; it pays 3%

of sales as rental costs. Going ahead, the company plans to own more sorting centers

and also increase their size so as to cater to a larger number of neighboring branches

and bring in operational efficiencies. TCI XPS will also save on rental costs, which

should aid EBITDA margins.

b. Setting up a base rate for all branches

Earlier, depending on the size of clients and competitive pressures, the company’s

branches offered different discounts to customers, hurting branch profitability. Now

the company has established a base rate below which no branch can negotiate with

customers.

Exhibit 12: EBITDA margins have been consistently improving for the past 3 years

Source: Company, Equirus Securities

3,463 3,860

4,593 4,950

5,557 6,000

6,586 6,632

7,552

11%

19%

8%

12%

8%

10%

1%

14%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17

Net Sales (Rs. mn) Growth (yoy%)

287 349 405 435 455 483 519 546 676

8.3%

9.0%

8.8% 8.8%

8.2%

8.0%

7.9%

8.2%

9.0%

7%

7%

8%

8%

8%

8%

8%

9%

9%

9%

9%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17

EBITDA (Rs. mn) EBITDAM (%)

Page 7: Equirus Securities TCI Express Management Meet Note… · TCI XPS has had a much better margin profile vs. peers in the logistics business due to its sole focus on express logistics.

TCI Express Management meet note Not Rated

March 10, 2018 Analysts: Depesh Kashyap [email protected](+91-7228934327) Page 7 of 14

Exhibit 13: Net profit has grown at a CAGR of ~15% in last 5 years

Source: Company, Equirus Securities

Cash conversion cycle is around 30 days

TCI XPS does not maintain any inventory. Its receivable days have been in the range of

50-55 but vary from client to client. For 10-12% of clients, the company typically collects

advance payments. From most SME customers, payments generally come back within 7

days; however, for bigger clients, payments get delayed to around 60-65 days, leading to

an overall increase in debtor days. Payable days have been in the range of 16-20, leading

to a cash conversion cycle of around 30 days.

Dividend payouts to remain steady

TCI XPS aims to maintain a dividend payout ratio in the range of 15-20%, in line with

other group companies.

Capex

TCI XPS intends to maintain its asset-light model and has no plans to own any vehicle.

However, the company is looking to densify its branch network, from 550 branches

currently to over 1000 branches in the next 3-4 years. Further, at present, it has 28

sorting centers, of which 8 are owned and the rest are on lease. The company doesn’t

want to increase the number of sorting centers but intends to own more sorting centers

in major cities. Also, it wants to increase the size of sorting centers so as to cater to

more number of branches. Overall Capex spend is expected to be Rs 600mn pa over the

next 3-4 years. As per management, this will bring in operational efficiencies and

decrease rental costs, in turn aiding profitability.

Return ratios expected to remain strong

RoCE declined in FY15 and FY16 as assets were transferred from parent to TCI XPS, which

led to an optical decline in return ratios. The company is confident of clocking 40%+ RoCE

going ahead.

Exhibit 14: Return ratios at a healthy level

Source: Company, Equirus Securities, ROCE is pre-tax

125

174 197 206

239 256 265

285

407

172

222

254 259 284

300 325

343

450

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17

Net Profit (Rs. mn) Cash Profit (Rs. mn)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17

RoE (%) RoCE (%)

Page 8: Equirus Securities TCI Express Management Meet Note… · TCI XPS has had a much better margin profile vs. peers in the logistics business due to its sole focus on express logistics.

TCI Express Management meet note Not Rated

March 10, 2018 Analysts: Depesh Kashyap [email protected](+91-7228934327) Page 8 of 14

Exhibit 15: Comparing parameters of industry-listed players

Source: Company, Equirus Securities

Page 9: Equirus Securities TCI Express Management Meet Note… · TCI XPS has had a much better margin profile vs. peers in the logistics business due to its sole focus on express logistics.

TCI Express Management meet note Not Rated

March 10, 2018 Analysts: Depesh Kashyap [email protected](+91-7228934327) Page 9 of 14

Exhibit 16: Relative Valuation vs. peers

Company name Price

(Rs)

M Cap

(Rs. mn) Sales CAGR (%) EPS CAGR (%) Net D/E P/E EV/EBITDA ROE (%) ROIC (%)

FY17-20E FY17-20E FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY17

Mahindra Logistics 473.2 33,661 22.3% 41.7% -0.2 50.9 37.5 25.7 29.7 21.8 15.5 18% 21% 22% 12%

VRL Logistics 402.7 36,744 12.1% 43.5% 0.2 29.2 22.4 17.6 14.7 11.6 9.3 18% 21% 23% 10%

Gati Ltd 101.1 10,954 10.4% 7.6% 0.6 17.0 17.8 24.1 10.7 9.4 9.3 10% 9% 7% 5%

Blue Dart 4229.1 1,00,348 8.8% 21.2% 0.5 67.4 50.7 40.3 29.6 24.3 19.6 28% 33% 34% 18%

TCI Express 463.0 17,726 17.3% 28.0% 0.1 32.1 26.5 20.8 21.0 16.6 13.0 29% 27% 28% 23%

Median

12.1% 28.0% 0.2 32.1 26.5 24.1 21.0 16.6 13.0 18% 21% 23% 12%

Source: Bloomberg, Equirus Securities

Page 10: Equirus Securities TCI Express Management Meet Note… · TCI XPS has had a much better margin profile vs. peers in the logistics business due to its sole focus on express logistics.

TCI Express Management meet note Not Rated

March 10, 2018 Analysts: Depesh Kashyap [email protected](+91-7228934327) Page 10 of 14

Exhibit 17: Key Financial Parameters

Rs. mn FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17

Total Income 3,463 3,860 4,593 4,950 5,557 6,000 6,586 6,632 7,552

Growth (yoy %)

11% 19% 8% 12% 8% 10% 1% 14%

EBIDTA 287 349 405 435 455 483 519 546 676

EBITDAM (%) 8.3% 9.0% 8.8% 8.8% 8.2% 8.0% 7.9% 8.2% 9.0%

Finance Cost 51 38 54 64 56 51 58 53 19

Depreciation & Amortisation 47 48 56 53 44 44 60 58 43

Profit before Tax & Exceptional Items 189 263 295 318 354 387 402 435 614

Taxes 64 89 98 99 115 132 137 151 207

Net profit 125 174 197 206 239 256 265 285 407

Net profit margin (%) 3.6% 4.5% 4.3% 4.2% 4.3% 4.3% 4.0% 4.3% 5.4%

Cash profit 172 222 254 259 284 300 325 343 450

Dividend per share 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8

EPS (Rs.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.6

Gross Block 447 488 490 382 366 353 388 806 1,177

Net Block 241 243 240 219 195 170 146 638 984

Share Capital 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 76 77

Net Worth 801 828 820 856 935 1,020 1,154 1,230 1,600

Average Net Worth 783 814 824 838 896 977 1,087 1,192 1,415

Total Debts 54 64 49 27 9 11 6 403 310

Capital Employed 878 916 892 879 940 1,023 1,157 1,259 1,635

Avg. Capital Employed 843 897 904 886 910 981 1,090 1,208 1,447

Return on net worth 15.6% 21.0% 24.0% 24.1% 25.6% 25.1% 23.0% 23.1% 25.4%

Return on Capital Employed 28.5% 33.6% 38.6% 43.1% 45.1% 44.7% 42.1% 40.4% 43.8%

Debt Equity Ratio (times ) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2

Interest Cover (times ) 5.7 9.2 7.6 6.9 8.1 9.4 9.0 10.4 36.1

Book Value per share (in Rs.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 41.8

Page 11: Equirus Securities TCI Express Management Meet Note… · TCI XPS has had a much better margin profile vs. peers in the logistics business due to its sole focus on express logistics.

TCI Express Management meet note Not Rated

March 10, 2018 Analysts: Depesh Kashyap [email protected](+91-7228934327) Page 11 of 14

Historical Standalone Financials

P&L (Rs Mn) FY15A FY16A FY17A

Balance Sheet (Rs Mn) FY15A FY16A FY17A

Cash Flow (Rs Mn) FY15A FY16A FY17A

Revenue 6,586 6,632 7,539 Equity Capital 0 76 77 PBT

614

Op. Expenditure 6,070 6,088 6,876 Reserve 1,154 1,154 1,523 Depreciation

43

EBITDA 516 544 663 Net-worth 1,154 1,230 1,600 Others

20

Depreciation 60 58 43 Long Term Debt 6 403 310 Taxes Paid

201

EBIT 456 486 619 Def. Tax Liability 0 24 29 Change in WC

42

Interest Expense 58 53 19 Account Payables 227 232 378 Operating C/F

518

Other Income 3 2 14 Other Current Liabilities 57 97 206 Capex

-379

PBT 402 435 614 Total Liabilities & Equity 1,443 1,985 2,524 Change in Invest

0

Tax 139 153 207 Net Fixed Assets 146 637 984 Others

-13

Recurring PAT 263 283 407 Capital WIP 0 91 79 Investing C/F

-392

Extraordinaries 0 0 0 Investment 34 28 41 Change in Debt

-92

Reported PAT 263 283 407 Inventory 0 0 0 Change in Equity

0

EPS (Rs) 6.9 7.4 10.6 Account Receivables 1,015 1,054 1,149 Others

-56

DPS (Rs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Current Assets 177 65 183 Financing C/F

-148

CEPS (Rs)

11.8 Cash 71 109 88 Net change in cash

-21

FCFF (Rs)

3.6 Total Assets 1,443 1,985 2,524

RoE (%)

29%

BVPS (Rs)

41.8

Non-cash Working Capital 909 791 748

RoIC (%)

23%

Sales Growth (%)

1% 14% Cash Conv. Cycle 50.4 43.5 36.2 Core RoIC (%)

23%

PAT Growth (%)

8% 44% WC Turnover 7.2 8.4 10.1 P/E

43.5

EPS Growth (%)

8% 44% FA Turnover 45.1 9.1 7.1

P/BV

11.1

EBITDAM (%) 8% 8% 9% D/E 0.0 0.3 0.2 EV/EBITDA

27.1

PATM (%) 4% 4% 5% Net D/E -0.1 0.2 0.1 EV/Sales

2.4

Tax Rate (%) 35% 35% 34% Interest Cover 7.9 9.3 33.1 Div. Yield (%)

0%

*TCI Express got demerged from TCI in 2016

Page 12: Equirus Securities TCI Express Management Meet Note… · TCI XPS has had a much better margin profile vs. peers in the logistics business due to its sole focus on express logistics.

TCI Express Management meet note Not Rated

March 10, 2018 Analysts: Depesh Kashyap [email protected](+91-7228934327) Page 12 of 14

Equirus Securities

Research Analysts Sector/Industry Email

Equity Sales E-mail

Abhishek Shindadkar IT Services [email protected] 91-22-43320643 Vishad Turakhia [email protected] 91-22-43320633

Ashutosh Tiwari Auto, Metals & Mining [email protected] 91-79-61909517 Subham Sinha [email protected] 91-22-43320631

Depesh Kashyap Mid-Caps [email protected] 91-79-61909528 Viral Desai [email protected] 91-22-43320635

Devam Modi Power & Infrastructure [email protected] 91-79-61909516 Viraj Mehta [email protected] 91-22-43320634

Dhaval Dama FMCG, Mid-Caps [email protected] 91-79-61909518 Rushabh Shah [email protected] 91-22-43320632

Manoj Gori Consumer Durables [email protected] 91-79-61909523 Dealing Room E-mail

Maulik Patel Oil and Gas [email protected] 91-79-61909519 Ashish Shah [email protected] 91-22-43320662

Praful Bohra Pharmaceuticals [email protected] 91-22-43320611 Ilesh Savla [email protected] 91-22-43320666

Rohan Mandora Banking & Financial Services [email protected] 91-79-61909529 Manoj Kejriwal [email protected] 91-22-43320663

Associates E-mail Dharmesh Mehta [email protected] 91-22-43320661

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Bharat Celly [email protected] 91-79-61909524 Compliance Officer E-mail

Harshit Patel [email protected] 91-79-61909522 Jay Soni [email protected] 91-79-61909561

Meet Chande [email protected] 91-79-61909513 Corporate Communications E-mail

Nishant Bagrecha [email protected] 91-79-61909526 Mahdokht Bharda [email protected] 91-22-43320647 Parva Soni [email protected] 91-79-61909521

Pranav Mehta [email protected] 91-79-61909514

Ronak Soni [email protected] 91-79-61909525

Samkit Shah [email protected] 91-79-61909520

Shreepal Doshi [email protected] 91-79-61909541

Varun Baxi [email protected] 91-79-61909527

Vikas Jain [email protected] 91-79-61909531

Rating & Coverage Definitions: Absolute Rating • LONG : Over the investment horizon, ATR >= Ke for companies with Free Float market cap >Rs 5 billion and ATR >= 20% for rest of the companies • ADD: ATR >= 5% but less than Ke over investment horizon • REDUCE: ATR >= negative 10% but <5% over investment horizon • SHORT: ATR < negative 10% over investment horizon Relative Rating • OVERWEIGHT: Likely to outperform the benchmark by at least 5% over investment horizon • BENCHMARK: likely to perform in line with the benchmark • UNDERWEIGHT: likely to under-perform the benchmark by at least 5% over investment horizon Investment Horizon Investment Horizon is set at a minimum 3 months to maximum 18 months with target date falling on last day of a calendar quarter. Lite vs. Regular Coverage vs. Spot Coverage We aim to keep our rating and estimates updated at least once a quarter for Regular Coverage stocks. Generally, we would have access to the company and we would maintain detailed financial model for Regular coverage companies. We intend to publish updates on Lite coverage stocks only an opportunistic basis and subject to our ability to contact the management. Our rating and estimates for Lite coverage stocks may not be current. Spot coverage is meant for one-off coverage of a specific company and in such cases, earnings forecast and target price are optional. Spot coverage is meant to stimulate discussion rather than provide a research opinion.

Registered Office:

Equirus Securities Private Limited

Unit No. 1201, 12th Floor, C Wing, Marathon Futurex,

N M Joshi Marg, Lower Parel,

Mumbai-400013.

Tel. No: +91 – (0)22 – 4332 0600

Fax No: +91- (0)22 – 4332 0601

Corporate Office:

3rd floor, House No. 9,

Magnet Corporate Park, Near Zydus Hospital, B/H Intas Sola Bridge,

S.G. Highway Ahmedabad-380054

Gujarat

Tel. No: +91 (0)79 - 6190 9550

Fax No: +91 (0)79 – 6190 9560

Page 13: Equirus Securities TCI Express Management Meet Note… · TCI XPS has had a much better margin profile vs. peers in the logistics business due to its sole focus on express logistics.

TCI Express Management meet note Not Rated

March 10, 2018 Analysts: Depesh Kashyap [email protected](+91-7228934327) Page 13 of 14

© 2018 Equirus Securities Private Limited. All rights reserved. For Private Circulation only. This report or any portion hereof may not

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certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

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Page 14: Equirus Securities TCI Express Management Meet Note… · TCI XPS has had a much better margin profile vs. peers in the logistics business due to its sole focus on express logistics.

TCI Express Management meet note Not Rated

March 10, 2018 Analysts: Depesh Kashyap [email protected](+91-7228934327) Page 14 of 14

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