EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

45
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Transcript of EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

Page 1: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

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31 August 2000

Page 2: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

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Purp

ose

�T

o D

evel

op a

n E

stim

atio

n of

Cap

ture

R

ates

for

Ene

my

Pris

oner

s of

War

(E

PW)

–R

ates

to b

e in

corp

orat

ed in

to th

e H

QD

A T

otal

A

rmy

Ana

lysi

s (T

AA

) pr

oces

s

–U

sabl

e fo

r ot

her

Arm

y an

alys

is a

nd m

odel

ing

Page 3: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

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Dat

a C

onsi

sts

of:

�76

Ita

lian

Cam

paig

n E

ngag

emen

ts

�49

Kur

sk E

ngag

emen

ts

�77

Ard

enne

s E

ngag

emen

ts

�71

Wor

ld W

ar I

I O

pera

tions

Page 4: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

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The

Rep

ort I

nclu

des

�M

easu

ring

Hum

an F

acto

rs in

Com

bat

–T

he I

talia

n C

ampa

ign

Eng

agem

ents

C

ompa

riso

ns–

The

Ard

enne

s C

ampa

ign

Eng

agem

ents

C

ompa

riso

ns–

The

Bat

tle o

f K

ursk

Eng

agem

ents

C

ompa

riso

ns–

The

Cam

paig

n D

atab

ase

Com

pari

sons

–D

eser

tion

and

Uni

t Coh

esio

n–

Con

clus

ions

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Perf

orm

ance

Dif

fere

nces

in

Opp

osin

g C

omba

t For

ces

�M

ay b

e ex

amin

ed u

sing

3 m

easu

rem

ents

:–

Mis

sion

Acc

ompl

ishm

ent

•W

in/lo

se (

eith

er ju

dgm

ent o

r ad

vanc

e)•

Scor

ing

–C

asua

lty E

ffec

tiven

ess

•T

otal

bat

tle c

asua

lties

–Sp

atia

l Eff

ectiv

enes

s•

Adv

ance

rat

es

�D

id n

ot a

ccou

nt f

or th

e co

nditi

ons

of c

omba

t ex

cept

for

for

ce r

atio

s an

d po

stur

e (a

ttack

er/d

efen

der)

Page 6: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

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Res

ults

fro

m I

talia

n D

ata:

Mis

sion

Suc

cess

�D

oes

not s

how

a s

tron

g in

dica

tion

of a

ny

sign

ific

ant p

erfo

rman

ce d

iffe

rent

ials

be

twee

n U

S an

d U

K f

orce

s

�D

ata

may

sho

w a

10-

20%

adv

anta

ge o

n th

e pa

rt o

f th

e G

erm

ans

as th

ey a

re a

ble

to

succ

eed

with

a lo

wer

ave

rage

for

ce r

atio

(o

nly

17 c

ases

)

Page 7: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

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Res

ults

fro

m I

talia

n D

ata:

Cas

ualty

Eff

ectiv

enes

s�

US

and

UK

ver

sus

Ger

man

s–

Ger

man

cas

ualty

eff

ectiv

enes

s ad

vant

age

of a

roun

d 30

% w

hen

defe

ndin

g ag

ains

t US

atta

cks

–G

erm

an c

asua

lty e

ffec

tiven

ess

adva

ntag

e of

aro

und

70%

whe

n de

fend

ing

agai

nst U

K a

ttack

s–

Ger

man

cas

ualty

eff

ectiv

enes

s pa

rity

US/

UK

whe

n at

tack

ing

(17

case

s)

�U

S co

mpa

red

to U

K–

Ten

denc

y fo

r U

S fo

rces

to ta

kean

d ca

use

high

er c

asua

lties

–C

asua

lty e

ffec

tiven

ess

adva

ntag

e in

the

atta

ck o

f 30

% b

y th

e U

S ov

er th

e U

K (

com

pare

d to

opp

osin

g G

erm

ans)

–C

asua

lty e

ffec

tiven

ess

adva

ntag

e of

4 b

y U

S ov

er U

K in

the

defe

nse

(7 c

ases

vs.

10

case

s)

Page 8: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

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�C

oncl

usio

ns–

Ger

man

and

US

forc

es r

ough

ly e

quiv

alen

t in

com

bat

capa

bilit

y•

US

may

hav

e be

en a

s m

uch

as 2

0% le

ss e

ffec

tive

than

the

Ger

man

s

–C

omba

t per

form

ance

of

UK

for

ces

rela

tive

to U

S fo

rces

was

cle

arly

infe

rior

, pro

babl

y 20

-30%

.•

Thi

s m

akes

UK

for

ces

defi

nite

ly in

feri

or to

Ger

man

for

ces,

by

as

muc

h as

50%

–D

iffe

renc

es a

re n

oted

, no

sign

ific

ant i

mpa

ct o

n E

PW

ra

tes

Res

ults

fro

m I

talia

n D

ata:

Cas

ualty

Eff

ectiv

enes

s (c

ont.)

Page 9: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

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Res

ults

fro

m A

rden

nes

Dat

a:M

issi

on S

ucce

ss�

It d

oes

not a

ppea

r th

at th

e U

S A

rmy

perf

orm

ed b

ette

r in

the

atta

ck in

the

Ard

enne

s en

gage

men

ts th

an it

did

in th

e It

alia

n en

gage

men

ts

Page 10: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

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Res

ults

fro

m A

rden

nes

Dat

a:C

asua

lty E

ffec

tiven

ess

�U

S vs

Ger

man

s–

Cle

ar r

elat

ive

perf

orm

ance

dif

fere

nce

rela

tive

to th

e U

S vs

Ger

man

Arm

y in

the

Ard

enne

s co

mpa

red

to

Ital

y–

Fact

or o

f 2

shif

t in

casu

alty

eff

ectiv

enes

s be

twee

n It

aly

and

Ard

enne

s w

hen

US

atta

ckin

g–

Ard

enne

s da

ta s

elec

tion

may

be

bias

ed–

Impr

oved

air

sup

port

may

hav

e be

en a

fac

tor

•B

ut c

anno

t exp

lain

the

2-to

-1 d

iffe

renc

e

–D

eclin

e in

Ger

man

mor

ale

may

hav

e be

en r

espo

nsib

le

for

the

diff

eren

ce in

cas

ualty

eff

ectiv

enes

s

Page 11: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

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Res

ults

fro

m A

rden

nes

Dat

a:C

asua

lty E

ffec

tiven

ess

(con

t.)

�C

oncl

usio

ns–

Poss

ible

that

the

rela

tive

perf

orm

ance

bet

wee

n U

S an

d G

erm

an f

orce

s in

the

Ard

enne

s w

as

diff

eren

t (in

fav

or o

f U

S) f

rom

Ita

ly

–T

his

diff

eren

ce m

ay e

xpla

in th

e ca

ptur

e ra

te

diff

eren

ces

betw

een

the

two

data

set

s

–M

ore

rese

arch

is n

eede

d

Page 12: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

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Res

ults

fro

m K

ursk

Dat

a:M

issi

on E

ffec

tiven

ess

�61

% o

f G

erm

an a

ttack

s su

cces

sful

–A

vera

ge f

orce

rat

io o

f 1.

34 to

1

�17

% o

f So

viet

atta

cks

succ

essf

ul–

Ave

rage

for

ce r

atio

of

1.43

to 1

�N

umbe

rs m

atte

r–

Onl

y 2

case

s of

Ger

man

suc

cess

whe

n at

tack

ing

outn

umbe

red

–31

cas

es o

f at

tack

er o

utnu

mbe

red

in th

e 19

5 at

tack

s re

view

ed

�O

nly

1 ca

se w

hen

Ger

man

atta

ck f

aile

d w

hen

they

ou

tnum

bere

d th

e So

viet

s (1

.09

to 1

)�

In a

ll ot

her

faile

d G

erm

an a

ttack

s, th

ey w

ere

outn

umbe

red

Page 13: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

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Res

ults

fro

m K

ursk

Dat

a:C

asua

lty E

ffec

tiven

ess

�Si

gnif

ican

t inf

luen

ce o

f na

tiona

lity

on c

asua

lty a

nd

capt

ure

rate

s�

Whe

n at

tack

ing:

–So

viet

s lo

st 5

.63

men

per

Ger

man

lost

–G

erm

ans

infl

icte

d 3.

33 c

asua

lties

per

Ger

man

lost

�W

hen

odds

wer

e ev

en in

the

atta

ck:

–So

viet

s lo

st 4

.83

men

per

Ger

man

lost

–G

erm

ans

infl

icte

d 2.

44 c

asua

lties

per

Ger

man

lost

Ave

rag

e

Fo

rce

Ra

tio

Ave

rag

e

Lo

ss R

ati

oA

ll S

ovie

t A

ttac

ks (

18)

1.42

to

15.

63 t

o 1

Sov

iet

Low

-odd

s A

ttac

ks (

12)

1.00

to

14.

83 t

o 1

.51

- 1

.34

to 1

All

Ger

man

Att

acks

(31

)1.

66 t

o 1

.30

to

1G

erm

an L

ow-o

dds

Att

acks

(21

) .

93 t

o 1

.41

to

1 .

63 -

1.4

2 to

1

Page 14: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

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Cas

ualty

Dif

fere

ntia

l:Im

pact

on

MIA

s an

d C

IAs

Ge

rma

nS

ovi

et

Ra

tio

Tota

l Cas

ualti

es10

,233

40,6

441

to

3.97

W

hen

atta

ckin

g7,

963

13,7

031

to

1.72

W

hen

defe

ndin

g2,

270

26,9

411

to 1

1.87

Tota

l Blo

ody

Cas

ualti

es9,

936

27,0

461

to 2

.72

To

tal

KIA

1,52

38,

008

1 to

5.2

6W

IA t

o K

IA R

atio

5.52

to

12.

38 t

o 1

W

hen

atta

ckin

g5.

63 t

o 1

2.90

to

1

Whe

n de

fend

ing

5.16

to

12.

06 t

o 1

To

tal

MIA

297

13,5

981

to

45.7

8

Whe

n at

tack

ing

190

1,90

91

to

10.0

5

Whe

n de

fend

ing

107

11,6

891

to 1

09.2

4T

ota

l C

IA22

712

,436

1 to

54.

78P

erce

nt o

f MIA

is C

IA76

.43

91.4

5To

tal D

eser

ters

459

91

to 1

49.7

5P

erce

nt o

f CIA

des

erte

rs1.

764.

82

�A

s an

asi

de, t

he w

ound

ed-t

o-ki

lled

ratio

is h

ighe

r fo

r th

e at

tack

er th

an f

or th

e de

fend

er

Page 15: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

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Issu

e of

Sov

iet D

eser

ters

�Pr

obab

le c

orre

latio

n be

twee

n nu

mbe

r of

de

sert

ers

and

num

ber

of C

IA

�A

for

ce w

ith m

ore

dese

rter

s w

ill p

roba

bly

have

cor

resp

ondi

ngly

mor

e C

IA

�M

easu

rem

ent o

f de

sert

ers

and

AW

OL

is

prob

ably

a r

efle

ctio

n of

the

gene

ral s

tate

of

a un

it’s

mor

ale

and

cohe

sion

Page 16: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

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Res

ults

fro

m K

ursk

Dat

a:O

ther

Fac

tors

�T

he te

rrai

n w

as e

asie

r fo

r th

e at

tack

er th

an w

as

typi

cal i

n th

e It

alia

n an

d A

rden

nes

enga

gem

ents

�T

echn

olog

y an

d w

eapo

ns w

ere

sim

ilar

�T

he m

ix o

f w

eapo

ns w

as d

iffe

rent

, esp

ecia

lly in

ar

tille

ry�

The

Ger

man

Air

For

ce e

stab

lishe

d ai

r su

peri

ority

, eve

n th

ough

it w

as o

utnu

mbe

red.

It

dow

ned

enem

y pl

anes

at a

rat

e gr

eate

r th

an 5

to 1

�B

oth

side

s ha

d ex

tens

ive

com

bat e

xper

ienc

e,

plen

ty o

f re

st a

nd tr

aini

ng, a

nd w

ere

wel

l sto

cked

Page 17: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

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Res

ults

fro

m K

ursk

Dat

a:C

oncl

usio

ns�

Def

inite

Ger

man

adv

anta

ge in

com

bat

capa

bilit

y–

In m

issi

on e

ffec

tiven

ess

in b

oth

offe

nse

and

defe

nse

–In

cas

ualty

eff

ectiv

enes

s in

bot

h of

fens

e an

d de

fens

e

�T

he d

iffe

renc

e ap

pear

s to

be

by a

fac

tor

of 3

Page 18: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

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Cam

paig

n D

atab

ase

Com

pari

sons

�C

onfi

rms

3 of

the

4 m

ajor

poi

nts

dete

rmin

ed

from

the

enga

gem

ent d

ata

–T

here

is a

dif

fere

nce

betw

een

Alli

ed a

nd G

erm

an

perf

orm

ance

–T

his

diff

eren

ce a

ppea

rs to

cha

nge

over

tim

e–

The

re is

a d

iffe

renc

e be

twee

n U

S an

d U

K

perf

orm

ance

–So

me

arm

ies

(in

this

cas

e, I

talia

n) p

erfo

rm n

otic

eabl

y w

orse

than

the

norm

s as

est

ablis

hed

by G

erm

any,

US,

an

d U

K

Page 19: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

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Dif

fere

nce

in P

erfo

rman

ce:

Alli

ed v

s G

erm

an�

The

Ita

lian

Cam

paig

n da

ta f

rom

Sal

erno

to

Rom

e (2

6 ca

ses)

sho

ws:

–W

hile

out

num

beri

ng th

e de

fend

er a

roun

d 3

to

1, th

e at

tack

er s

uffe

red

30-5

0% m

ore

casu

altie

s

Page 20: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

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Dif

fere

nce

in P

erfo

rman

ce:

Cha

nge

Ove

r T

ime

�C

ompa

red

Sale

rno-

to-R

ome

oper

atio

ns (

26

case

s) to

late

r It

alia

n C

ampa

ign

oper

atio

ns (

14

case

s)�

Deg

ree

of c

asua

lty e

ffec

tiven

ess

appe

ars

to b

e ab

out 7

0%–

In e

arly

ope

ratio

ns: 1

.29

to 1

–In

late

r op

erat

ions

: 1 to

1.3

6

�D

oes

not a

ppea

r to

be

any

othe

r si

gnif

ican

t in

flue

ncin

g fa

ctor

s

Page 21: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

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Dif

fere

nce

in P

erfo

rman

ce:

US

vs U

K�

Thi

s po

int i

s no

tsup

port

ed b

y th

e op

erat

ions

dat

a

Page 22: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

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Dif

fere

nce

in P

erfo

rman

ce:

US

vs U

K (c

ont.)

�D

ata

is n

ot “

clea

n,”

both

sid

es h

ad A

llied

con

tinge

nts

–U

K c

orps

in F

ifth

US

Arm

y–

UK

Eig

hth

Arm

y in

clud

ed A

ustr

alia

ns, N

ew Z

eala

nder

s, P

oles

, C

anad

ians

, Sou

th A

fric

ans,

Ind

ians

, etc

.

�M

ode

of f

ight

ing

was

dif

fere

nt–

US

atta

cked

at l

ower

odd

s–

Aga

inst

str

onge

r ar

mor

ed f

orce

s–

Bot

h su

ffer

ed a

nd in

flic

ted

high

er c

asua

lties

per

day

�U

K h

ad m

ore

favo

rabl

e ca

sual

ty e

xcha

nge

ratio

–U

S ca

used

.9 c

asua

lties

for

eve

ry 1

suf

fere

d–

UK

cau

sed

1.21

cas

ualti

es f

or e

very

1 s

uffe

red

Page 23: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

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�A

rmy-

leve

l dat

a sh

ows

oppo

site

pat

tern

fro

m d

ivis

ion-

leve

l dat

a�

Six

poss

ible

rea

sons

:–

The

Bri

tish

divi

sion

s m

easu

red

may

not

hav

e be

en ty

pica

l of

Bri

tish

perf

orm

ance

–Si

nce

US/

UK

ope

ratio

ns o

ften

incl

uded

oth

er A

llied

uni

ts, t

his

may

not

be

a va

lid c

ompa

riso

n of

US/

UK

per

form

ance

–O

ppos

ing

Ger

man

for

ce o

n th

e w

est c

oast

may

hav

e be

en b

ette

r–

Incl

usio

n of

Anz

io a

nd S

aler

no d

ata

in th

e U

S co

lum

n (e

ven

thou

gh th

ey in

clud

ed s

tron

g B

ritis

h fo

rces

) he

avily

infl

uenc

es th

e re

sults

–U

S en

gage

d in

hig

h-ca

sual

ty o

pera

tions

that

bia

s th

e av

erag

e ca

sual

ty r

ate

(Sal

erno

, Anz

io, F

irst

Cas

sino

)

Dif

fere

nce

in P

erfo

rman

ce:

US

vs U

K (c

ont.)

Page 24: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

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Thr

ee C

ases

of

Ger

man

s A

ttack

ing

the

US

�C

ause

d an

ave

rage

of

1.13

US

casu

altie

s fo

r ev

ery

1 th

ey lo

st

�A

vera

ge a

ggre

gate

for

ce r

atio

was

1.2

2 to

1

�A

ggre

gate

arm

or a

dvan

tage

was

1.1

3 to

1

Page 25: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

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Oth

er N

atio

nalit

ies’

Per

form

ance

�So

me

arm

ies

(in

this

cas

e, th

e It

alia

ns)

perf

orm

ed n

otic

eabl

y w

orse

than

the

norm

s es

tabl

ishe

d by

Ger

man

y, U

S, a

nd

UK

Page 26: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

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�E

ven

whe

n th

e la

rge

num

ber

of e

xten

uatin

g ci

rcum

stan

ces

are

cons

ider

ed, t

he p

erfo

rman

ce o

f th

e It

alia

n A

rmy

was

stil

l aby

smal

–In

the

offe

nse,

the

Ital

ians

lost

31.

25 c

asua

lties

for

ev

ery

one

they

infl

icte

d–

In th

e de

fens

e th

e It

alia

ns lo

st 1

5.25

cas

ualti

es f

or

ever

y on

e th

ey in

flic

ted

–In

the

defe

nse,

ove

r 90

% o

f th

e It

alia

n fo

rce

surr

ende

red

( >

4%

per

day

)

�It

alia

n pe

rfor

man

ce c

erta

inly

wor

se th

an th

at o

f th

e So

viet

s

Oth

er N

atio

nalit

ies’

Per

form

ance

Page 27: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

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Des

ertio

n an

d U

nit C

ohes

ion

�Si

gnif

ican

t des

ertio

n ra

te d

iffe

renc

es

betw

een

nativ

e G

erm

ans

and

ethn

ic

Ger

man

s (V

olks

deut

sche

)

�Si

gnif

ican

t des

ertio

n ra

te d

iffe

renc

es

betw

een

Ger

man

s an

d no

n-G

erm

ans

�A

llied

des

ertio

n (a

cros

s lin

es)

was

min

imal

Page 28: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

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Con

clus

ions

�G

erm

ans

and

US

roug

hly

equi

vale

nt in

com

bat

effe

ctiv

enes

s–

US

with

in 2

0-30

% o

f G

erm

ans,

may

be lo

wer

–T

rue

for

Ital

y, a

lthou

gh th

ey h

ave

sam

e co

mba

t eff

ectiv

enes

s in

th

e A

rden

nes

–O

vera

ll im

pact

of

US

vs G

erm

an c

omba

t eff

ectiv

enes

s no

t en

ough

to b

ias

furt

her

anal

ysis

�G

erm

ans

and

UK

with

in s

ame

orde

r of

mag

nitu

de o

f co

mba

t eff

ectiv

enes

s–

UK

som

ewha

t inf

erio

r (2

0-50

%)

–M

ay h

ave

som

e im

pact

on

battl

e re

sults

, but

not

eno

ugh

to b

ias

furt

her

anal

ysis

�A

ll da

ta f

rom

Ita

lian

and

Ard

enne

s en

gage

men

ts c

an b

e us

ed in

terc

hang

eabl

y to

est

ablis

h E

PW r

ates

Page 29: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

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Con

clus

ions

(con

t.)

�It

alia

n co

mba

t eff

ectiv

enes

s ap

pear

s to

be

low

er

than

Sov

iet c

omba

t eff

ectiv

enes

s�

Hum

an f

acto

rs a

re a

maj

or d

eter

min

ant o

f de

sert

ion

and

capt

ure

rate

s–

Furt

her

anal

ysis

nee

ded

�Pr

obab

le c

orre

latio

n be

twee

n de

sert

ion

rate

s (a

nd

may

be A

WO

L r

ates

) an

d ca

ptur

e ra

tes

�Pr

obab

le c

orre

latio

n be

twee

n de

sert

ion

rate

s (a

nd

may

be A

WO

L r

ates

) an

d co

mba

t eff

ectiv

enes

s

Page 30: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

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Impa

ct o

f M

oral

e (B

eing

Sov

iet)

�T

enta

tive

conc

lusi

ons:

–If

ther

e is

a r

elat

ive

casu

alty

eff

ectiv

enes

s di

spar

ity

betw

een

two

arm

ies

(ord

er o

f m

agni

tude

of

3), t

here

w

ill b

e a

disp

arity

in th

e ca

ptur

e ra

tes

(ord

er o

f m

agni

tude

10)

, whi

ch m

ay b

e re

flec

ted

by d

ecre

asin

g th

e ca

ptur

e ra

te o

f th

e si

de w

ith th

e hi

ghes

t mor

ale

–M

ore

enga

gem

ents

nee

d to

be

deve

lope

d an

d an

alyz

ed

to s

tren

gthe

n/di

spro

ve th

is h

ypot

hesi

s.–

Reg

ardl

ess

of th

e “s

haki

ness

” of

the

data

, the

impa

ct

of h

uman

fac

tors

on

EPW

cap

ture

rat

es c

anno

t be

igno

red

Page 31: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

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Stud

y C

oncl

usio

ns

�O

utco

me

is a

sig

nifi

cant

det

erm

inan

t of

EPW

rat

e–

Eff

ect i

s by

a f

acto

r of

10+

, and

can

ris

e to

100

+ w

ith

pene

trat

ions

and

env

elop

men

ts

�B

eing

atta

cker

or

defe

nder

is a

sig

nifi

cant

det

erm

inan

t–

Eff

ect i

s by

a f

acto

r of

10+

�Fo

rce

mix

is a

sig

nifi

cant

det

erm

inan

t–

Eff

ect i

s by

a f

acto

r of

10+

for

the

atta

cker

–E

ffec

t is

by a

fac

tor

of a

bout

4 f

or th

e de

fend

er

�M

oral

e (b

eing

Sov

iet)

is a

sig

nifi

cant

det

erm

inan

t–

Eff

ect i

s by

a f

acto

r of

abo

ut 1

0–

His

tori

cally

ther

e ha

ve b

een

arm

ies

muc

h w

orse

than

the

Sovi

et

Arm

y in

194

3

�W

e ha

ve a

bas

is f

or a

mul

tiple

reg

ress

ion

mod

el w

ith f

our

maj

or in

depe

nden

t var

iabl

es

Page 32: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

Bac

kup

Slid

esB

acku

p Sl

ides

Page 33: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

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�O

vera

ll, th

e si

mila

ritie

s be

twee

n th

e It

alia

n an

d A

rden

nes

Cam

paig

n en

gage

men

ts a

re m

ore

com

pelli

ng th

an th

e di

ffer

ence

sIt

ali

an

Ard

en

ne

sN

umbe

r of

Eng

agem

ents

7571

Ave

rage

Att

acke

r S

tren

gth

16,9

4515

,024

Ave

rage

Def

ende

r S

tren

gth

8,50

69,

311

Ave

rage

For

ce R

atio

2.34

2.79

Wei

ghte

d F

orce

Rat

io1.

991.

61A

vera

ge B

attle

Len

gth

(day

s)2.

411.

61A

vera

ge A

ttac

ker

Tank

Str

engt

h77

84A

vera

ge D

efen

der

Tank

Str

engt

h40

37A

vera

ge A

ttac

ker

Cas

ualti

es42

925

6A

vera

ge D

efen

der

Cas

ualti

es42

154

8A

vera

ge A

ttac

ker

Cas

ualti

es p

er d

ay17

816

0A

vera

ge D

efen

der

Cas

ualti

es p

er d

ay17

434

1A

vera

ge A

ttac

ker

Per

cent

Los

s pe

r da

y1.

351.

87A

vera

ge D

efen

der

Per

cent

Los

s pe

r da

y1.

937.

16W

eigh

ted

Att

acke

r P

erce

nt L

oss

per

day

1.05

1.71

Wei

ghte

d D

efen

der

Per

cent

Los

s pe

r D

ay2.

055.

89A

vera

ge N

umbe

r of

Att

acke

r E

PW

s14

028

3A

vera

ge N

umbe

r of

Att

acke

r E

PW

s pe

r D

ay60

176

Ave

rage

Num

ber

of D

efen

der

EP

Ws

5228

Ave

rage

Num

ber

of D

efen

der

EP

Ws

per

Day

2218

Ave

rage

Per

cent

of A

ttac

ker

CIA

0.41

0.24

Ave

rage

Per

cent

of A

ttac

ker

CIA

per

Day

0.17

0.15

Ave

rage

Per

cent

of D

efen

der

CIA

1.56

7.21

Ave

rage

Per

cent

of D

efen

der

CIA

per

Day

0.65

4.49

Ave

rage

Per

cent

Att

acke

r Lo

sses

are

CIA

13.5

814

.37

Ave

rage

Per

cent

Def

ende

r Lo

sses

are

CIA

33.0

733

.69

Tota

l Per

cent

Att

acke

r Lo

sses

are

CIA

12.2

411

Tota

l Per

cent

Def

ende

r Lo

sses

are

CIA

33.2

051

.59

Page 34: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

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Kur

sk is

Dif

fere

ntN

umbe

r of

Eng

agem

ents

49A

vera

ge A

ttac

ker

Str

engt

h28

,521

Ave

rage

Def

ende

r S

tren

gth

20,7

82A

vera

ge F

orce

Rat

io1.

67W

eigh

ted

For

ce R

atio

1.37

Ave

rage

Bat

tle L

engt

h (d

ays)

1.39

Ave

rage

Att

acke

r Ta

nk S

tren

gth

86A

vera

ge D

efen

der

Tank

Str

engt

h59

Ave

rage

Att

acke

r C

asua

lties

442

Ave

rage

Def

ende

r C

asua

lties

596

Ave

rage

Att

acke

r C

asua

lties

per

day

319

Ave

rage

Def

ende

r C

asua

lties

per

day

430

Ave

rage

Att

acke

r P

erce

nt L

oss

per

day

1.38

Ave

rage

Def

ende

r P

erce

nt L

oss

per

day

4.38

Wei

ghte

d A

ttac

ker

Per

cent

Los

s pe

r da

y1.

55W

eigh

ted

Def

ende

r P

erce

nt L

oss

per

day

2.87

Ave

rage

Num

ber

of A

ttac

ker

EP

Ws

236

Ave

rage

Num

ber

of A

ttac

ker

EP

Ws

per

day

170

Ave

rage

Num

ber

of D

efen

der

EP

Ws

22A

vera

ge N

umbe

r of

Def

ende

r E

PW

s pe

r da

y16

Ave

rage

Per

cent

of A

ttac

ker

CIA

0.08

Ave

rage

Per

cent

of A

ttac

ker

CIA

per

day

0.06

Ave

rage

Per

cent

of D

efen

der

CIA

2.79

Ave

rage

Per

cent

of D

efen

der

CIA

per

day

2.76

Ave

rage

Per

cent

Att

acke

r Lo

sses

are

CIA

6.10

Ave

rage

Per

cent

Def

ende

r Lo

sses

are

CIA

26.5

0To

tal P

erce

nt A

ttac

ker

Loss

es a

re C

IA4.

98To

tal P

erce

nt D

efen

der

Loss

es a

re C

IA39

.66

Page 35: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

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The

Cam

paig

n D

atab

ase

Con

sist

s of

:�

The

fir

st y

ear

and

a ha

lf o

f th

e N

orth

Afr

ica

Cam

paig

n

�T

he S

icili

an

Cam

paig

n

�T

he E

ntir

e It

alia

n C

ampa

ign

(alm

ost t

wo

year

s)

Ca

mp

aig

nS

tart

Da

teE

nd

Da

te#

of

Op

era

tio

ns

Firs

t N

orth

Afri

can

6/11

/194

02/

7/19

419

Sec

ond

Nor

th A

frica

n2/

8/19

4111

/17/

1941

9Th

ird N

orth

Afri

can

11/1

8/19

417/

1/19

423

Fou

rth

Nor

th A

frica

n7/

2/19

421/

14/1

943

1To

rch

11/8

/194

211

/14/

1942

0Tu

nisi

an11

/15/

1942

5/12

/194

30

Sic

ilian

7/10

/194

38/

17/1

943

2C

alab

rian

9/3/

1943

9/30

/194

31

Sal

erno

9/9/

1943

9/30

/194

31

Nap

les

10/1

/194

310

/10/

1943

2V

oltu

rno

10/1

1/19

4311

/10/

1943

1Tr

igno

10/1

1/19

4311

/20/

1943

1G

arig

liano

11/1

1/19

431/

20/1

944

2S

angr

o11

/21/

1943

2/20

/194

43

Cas

sino

1/21

/194

43/

31/1

944

4A

nzio

1/22

/194

45/

22/1

944

7G

usta

v Li

ne3/

21/1

944

5/10

/194

42

Rom

e5/

11/1

944

6/30

/194

45

Got

hic

Line

7/1/

1944

4/10

/194

514

Po

Val

ley

4/11

/194

55/

6/19

454

Page 36: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

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Thi

s A

llow

s U

s to

Com

pare

the

Eng

agem

ent

Dat

a to

the

Ope

ratio

ns D

ata

Ita

lia

n D

ivis

ion

-le

vel

En

ga

ge

me

nts

Ita

lia

n A

rmy-

leve

l O

pe

rati

on

sR

ati

o,

Div

isio

n-

leve

l to

Arm

y-le

vel

Alli

ed O

ffens

ive

Act

ions

5926

Ger

man

Offe

nsiv

e A

ctio

ns17

3A

vera

ge A

ttac

ker

Str

engt

h16

,945

184,

949

1 to

10.

9A

vera

ge D

efen

der

Str

engt

h8,

506

70,9

281

to

8.3

Ave

rage

For

ce R

atio

2.3

4 to

1

3.25

to

1W

eigh

ted

For

ce R

atio

1.9

9 to

1

2.61

to

1A

vera

ge B

attle

Len

gth

(Day

s)2.

4125

.14

1 to

10.

4A

vera

ge A

ttac

ker

Tank

Str

engt

h77

562

1 to

7.

3A

vera

ge D

efen

der

Tank

Str

engt

h40

157

1 to

3.

9A

vera

ge A

ttac

ker

Cas

ualti

es42

95,

974

1 to

13.

9A

vera

ge D

efen

der

Cas

ualti

es42

14,

799

1 to

11.

4A

vera

ge A

ttac

ker

Cas

ualti

es p

er d

ay17

823

81

to

1.3

Ave

rage

Def

ende

r C

asua

lties

per

day

174

191

1 to

1.

1A

vera

ge A

ttac

ker

Per

cent

Los

s pe

r da

y1.

350.

191

to

.1

Ave

rage

Def

ende

r P

erce

nt L

oss

per

day

1.93

0.30

1 to

.

2W

eigh

ted

Att

acke

r P

erce

nt L

oss

per

day

1.05

0.13

1 to

.

1W

eigh

ted

Def

ende

r P

erce

nt L

oss

per

day

2.05

0.25

1 to

.

1A

vera

ge N

umbe

r of

Att

acke

r E

PW

s14

01,

559

1 to

11.

1A

vera

ge N

umbe

r of

Att

acke

r E

PW

s pe

r da

y60

621

to

1.0

Ave

rage

Num

ber

of D

efen

der

EP

Ws

5241

11

to

7.9

Ave

rage

Num

ber

of D

efen

der

EP

Ws

per

day

2216

1 to

.

7A

vera

ge P

erce

nt o

f Att

acke

r C

IA0.

410.

301

to

.7

Ave

rage

Per

cent

of A

ttac

ker

CIA

per

day

0.17

0.02

1 to

.

1A

vera

ge P

erce

nt o

f Def

ende

r C

IA1.

562.

111

to

1.4

Ave

rage

Per

cent

of D

efen

der

CIA

per

day

0.65

0.11

1 to

.

2A

vera

ge P

erce

nt A

ttac

ker

Loss

es a

re C

IA13

.58

6.77

1 to

.

5A

vera

ge P

erce

nt D

efen

der

Loss

es a

re C

IA33

.07

25.8

81

to

.8

Tota

l Per

cent

Att

acke

r Lo

sses

are

CIA

12.2

46.

881

to

.6

Tota

l Per

cent

Def

ende

r Lo

sses

are

CIA

33.2

032

.49

1 to

1.

0

Page 37: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

��$XJXVW����

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Com

pari

son

of O

pera

tions

Afr

ica

n a

nd

Sic

ilia

nC

am

pa

ign

Op

era

tio

ns

Sa

lern

o t

o R

om

eO

pe

rati

on

sR

om

e t

o S

urr

en

de

rO

pe

rati

on

sA

llied

Offe

nsiv

e A

ctio

ns16

2618

Axi

s O

ffens

ive

Act

ions

83

0A

vera

ge A

ttac

ker

Str

engt

h92

,940

184,

949

274,

243

Ave

rage

Def

ende

r S

tren

gth

75,8

1470

,928

102,

914

Ave

rage

For

ce R

atio

1.3

6 to

1

3.25

to

1

3.58

to

1W

eigh

ted

For

ce R

atio

1.2

3 to

1

2.61

to

1

2.66

to

1A

vera

ge B

attle

Len

gth

(Day

s)29

.21

25.1

434

.44

Ave

rage

Att

acke

r Ta

nk S

tren

gth

258

562

1,02

1A

vera

ge D

efen

der

Tank

Str

engt

h17

915

718

8A

vera

ge A

ttac

ker

Cas

ualti

es3,

900

5,97

46,

718

Ave

rage

Def

ende

r C

asua

lties

16,7

454,

799

19,8

07A

vera

ge A

ttac

ker

Cas

ualti

es p

er d

ay10

623

819

5A

vera

ge D

efen

der

Cas

ualti

es p

er d

ay57

319

157

5A

vera

ge A

ttac

ker

Per

cent

Los

s pe

r da

y0.

140.

190.

07A

vera

ge D

efen

der

Per

cent

Los

s pe

r da

y1.

380.

303.

33W

eigh

ted

Att

acke

r P

erce

nt L

oss

per

day

0.14

0.13

0.07

Wei

ghte

d D

efen

der

Per

cent

Los

s pe

r da

y0.

760.

250.

56A

vera

ge N

umbe

r of

Att

acke

r E

PW

s14

,950

1,55

914

,149

Ave

rage

Num

ber

of A

ttac

ker

EP

Ws

per

day

512

6241

1A

vera

ge N

umbe

r of

Def

ende

r E

PW

s53

141

115

7A

vera

ge N

umbe

r of

Def

ende

r E

PW

s pe

r da

y17

165

Ave

rage

Per

cent

of A

ttac

ker

CIA

3.41

0.30

0.06

Ave

rage

Per

cent

of A

ttac

ker

CIA

per

day

0.14

0.02

0A

vera

ge P

erce

nt o

f Def

ende

r C

IA24

.63

2.11

20.9

7A

vera

ge P

erce

nt o

f Def

ende

r C

IA p

er d

ay1.

380.

113.

15A

vera

ge P

erce

nt A

ttac

ker

Loss

es a

re C

IA9.

516.

771.

31A

vera

ge P

erce

nt D

efen

der

Loss

es a

re C

IA44

.63

25.8

851

.66

Tota

l Per

cent

Att

acke

r Lo

sses

are

CIA

13.6

26.

882.

33To

tal P

erce

nt D

efen

der

Loss

es a

re C

IA89

.28

32.4

971

.43

Ita

lia

n C

am

pa

ign

Page 38: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

��$XJXVW����

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LQ&RPEDW

Thi

s C

ompa

riso

n Sh

ows

�A

rmy-

leve

lope

ratio

ns a

re a

bout

10

times

th

e si

ze a

nd d

urat

ion

of th

e di

visi

on-l

evel

enga

gem

ents

�Fo

rce

ratio

s ar

e si

mila

r

�A

vera

ge d

aily

cas

ualti

es a

nd E

PWs

are

sim

ilar

Page 39: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

��$XJXVW����

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Con

clus

ions

�T

he c

asua

lty r

ate

and

capt

ure

rate

for

ar

my-

leve

lope

ratio

ns a

re a

bout

1/5

to 1

/10

of th

ose

for

divi

sion

-lev

elen

gage

men

ts

�T

he e

ngag

emen

t dat

a fo

r th

e It

alia

n C

ampa

ign

is a

fai

rly

repr

esen

tativ

e sa

mpl

e of

bat

tles

from

the

cam

paig

n

Page 40: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

��$XJXVW����

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LQ&RPEDW

Ope

ratio

nal T

empo

The

issu

e he

re is

ope

ratio

nal t

empo

. With

for

ces

10 ti

mes

la

rger

and

ope

ratio

ns th

at a

re 1

0 tim

es lo

nger

, the

ca

mpa

igns

sho

w th

e co

unt o

f th

e av

erag

e da

ily c

asua

lties

and

aver

age

daily

cap

ture

sar

e si

mila

r to

thos

e fo

und

in

the

enga

gem

ents

. Thi

s na

tura

lly tr

ansl

ates

into

dai

ly

casu

alty

rat

esan

d da

ily c

aptu

re r

ates

bein

g 1/

10 o

f th

e en

gage

men

ts. W

hat t

his

mea

ns is

that

thes

e ar

mie

s of

6 to

20

div

isio

ns, b

etw

een

the

activ

e an

d in

activ

e se

ctor

s of

th

eir

lines

, and

bet

wee

n th

e qu

iet a

nd a

ctiv

e pe

riod

s of

th

eir

oper

atio

ns, a

re o

n av

erag

e m

aint

aini

ng o

ne m

ajor

di

visi

on-l

evel

eng

agem

ent a

day

. The

ope

ratio

nal t

empo

fo

r ar

my-

leve

l ope

ratio

ns is

abo

ut 1

/10

of th

e op

erat

iona

l te

mpo

for

a d

ivis

ion-

leve

l atta

ck.

Page 41: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

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LQ&RPEDW

Res

ult:

Cha

nge

of T

empo

�O

ne o

f th

e re

sults

of

a re

volu

tion

in

mili

tary

aff

airs

(R

MA

) or

evo

lutio

n in

m

ilita

ry a

ffai

rs m

ay b

e a

chan

ge in

op

erat

iona

l tem

po�

May

res

ult i

n op

erat

ions

of

3-4

days

bei

ng

far

mor

e in

tens

e�

May

res

ult i

n lo

nger

per

iods

of

rest

be

twee

n op

erat

ions

In P

hase

III

, with

mod

ern

data

, we

will

look

for

a

sym

met

rica

l cha

nge

in in

tens

ity in

div

isio

n-le

vel

enga

gem

ents

whe

n co

mpa

red

to a

rmy-

leve

lope

ratio

ns.

Page 42: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

��$XJXVW����

0HDVXULQJ+XPDQ)DFWRUV

LQ&RPEDW

Com

pari

son

of I

talia

n an

d A

rden

nes

Perf

orm

ance

sA

rde

nn

es

Ita

lyU

S S

ucc

ess

ful

Att

ack

N

umbe

r of

Cas

es28

22

Ave

rage

US

loss

es20

746

3

Ave

rage

Ger

man

loss

es54

153

8

Tim

es U

S lo

sses

low

er23

10

No.

of T

ype

5+ A

ttac

ks14

11

Ave

rage

US

loss

es -

Typ

e 5+

212

456

A

vera

ge G

erm

an lo

sses

- T

ype

5+60

672

7

Ave

rage

US

loss

es -

Typ

e 4

203

470

A

vera

ge G

erm

an lo

sses

- T

ype

447

635

0U

S F

ail

ed

Att

ack

N

umbe

r of

Cas

es13

15

Ave

rage

US

loss

es22

341

3

Ave

rage

Ger

man

loss

es50

242

7

Tim

es U

S lo

sses

low

er8

7

Ave

rage

US

loss

less

out

lier

231

425

A

vera

ge G

erm

an lo

ss le

ss o

utlie

r37

534

2G

erm

an

Su

cce

ssfu

l A

tta

ck

Num

ber

of C

ases

115

A

vera

ge G

erm

an lo

ses

428

851

A

vera

ge U

S lo

sses

1185

727

Ti

mes

Ger

man

loss

es lo

wer

83

Ge

rma

n F

ail

ed

Att

ack

N

umbe

r of

Cas

es19

12

Ave

rage

Ger

man

loss

es25

341

9

Ave

rage

US

loss

es22

248

2

Tim

es G

erm

an lo

sses

low

er7

6

Page 43: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

��$XJXVW����

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LQ&RPEDW

Com

pari

ng th

e W

eigh

ted

Forc

e L

oss

Rat

ios

Ku

rsk

Ca

mp

aig

n D

ata

To

tal

Fo

rce

R

ati

oT

ota

l L

oss

R

ati

oA

ll S

ovie

t A

ttac

ks (

18)

1.43

to

16.

04 t

o 1

Sov

iet

Low

-odd

s A

ttac

ks (

12)

1.02

to

13.

92 t

o 1

.51

- 1

.34

to 1

All

Ger

man

Att

acks

(31

)1.

34 t

o 1

.30

to

1G

erm

an L

ow-o

dds

Att

acks

(21

) .

99 t

o 1

.27

to

1 .

63 -

1.4

2 to

1

Ita

lia

n C

am

pa

ign

Da

taT

ota

l F

orc

e

Ra

tio

To

tal

Lo

ss

Ra

tio

All

US

Att

acks

(37

)2.

18 t

o 1

.89

to

1U

S L

ow-o

dds

Att

acks

(3)

1.15

to

1 .

27 t

o 1

.72

- 1

.31

to 1

All

UK

Att

acks

(21

)2.

07 t

o 1

1.33

to

1U

K lo

w-o

dds

Att

acks

(4)

1.30

to

12.

31 t

o 1

1.

17 -

1.4

1 to

1A

ll G

erm

an A

ttac

ks (

17)

1.59

to

1 .

99 t

o 1

Ger

man

Low

-odd

s A

ttac

ks (

7) .

85 t

o 1

.57

to

1 .

73 -

1.4

8 to

1

Ard

en

ne

s C

am

pa

ign

Da

taT

ota

l F

orc

e

Ra

tio

To

tal

Lo

ss

Ra

tio

All

US

Att

acks

(41

)1.

69 t

o 1

.40

to

1U

S L

ow-o

dds

Att

acks

(12

)1.

29 t

o 1

.69

to

1 1

.15

- 1.

48 t

o 1

All

Ger

man

Att

acks

(30

)1.

52 t

o 1

.55

to

1G

erm

an L

ow-o

dds

Att

acks

(13

) .

85 t

o 1

.38

to

1 .

34 -

1.3

7 to

1

Page 44: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

��$XJXVW����

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LQ&RPEDW

Dif

fere

nce

in P

erfo

rman

ce:

US

vs U

K�

Thi

s po

int i

s no

tsup

port

ed

by th

e op

erat

ions

da

ta

Ita

lia

n C

am

pa

ign

US

Op

era

tio

ns

UK

Op

era

tio

ns

All

ied

Off

en

sive

Act

ion

s22

18A

vera

ge A

ttac

ker

Str

engt

h21

9,33

423

3,18

3A

vera

ge D

efen

der

Str

engt

h88

,923

74,4

70A

vera

ge F

orce

Rat

io

2.68

to

1

4.20

to

1W

eigh

ted

For

ce R

atio

2.

47 t

o 1

3.

13 t

o 1

Ave

rage

Bat

tle L

engt

h (D

ays)

3132

.56

Ave

rage

Att

acke

r Ta

nk S

tren

gth

733

737

Ave

rage

Def

ende

r Ta

nk S

tren

gth

193

105

Ave

rage

Att

acke

r C

asua

lties

7,82

35,

206

Ave

rage

Def

ende

r C

asua

lties

7,04

36,

285

Ave

rage

Att

acke

r C

asua

lties

per

day

252

160

Ave

rage

Def

ende

r C

asua

lties

per

day

227

193

Ave

rage

Att

acke

r P

erce

nt L

oss

per

day

0.17

0.06

Ave

rage

Def

ende

r P

erce

nt L

oss

per

day

0.30

0.27

Wei

ghte

d A

ttac

ker

Per

cent

Los

s pe

r da

y0.

120.

07W

eigh

ted

Def

ende

r P

erce

nt L

oss

per

day

0.26

0.26

Ave

rage

Num

ber

of A

ttac

ker

EP

Ws

2,49

11,

758

Ave

rage

Num

ber

of A

ttac

ker

EP

Ws

per

day

8054

Ave

rage

Num

ber

of D

efen

der

EP

Ws

455

151

Ave

rage

Num

ber

of D

efen

der

EP

Ws

per

day

155

Ave

rage

Per

cent

of A

ttac

ker

CIA

0.29

0.05

Ave

rage

Per

cent

of A

ttac

ker

CIA

per

day

0.02

0A

vera

ge P

erce

nt o

f Def

ende

r C

IA3.

192.

58A

vera

ge P

erce

nt o

f Def

ende

r C

IA p

er d

ay0.

130.

07A

vera

ge P

erce

nt A

ttac

ker

Loss

es a

re C

IA5.

243.

18A

vera

ge P

erce

nt D

efen

der

Loss

es a

re C

IA33

.25

25.8

4To

tal P

erce

nt A

ttac

ker

Loss

es a

re C

IA5.

822.

90To

tal P

erce

nt D

efen

der

Loss

es a

re C

IA35

.37

27.9

7A

vera

ge D

aily

Adv

ance

Rat

e

1

.05

km

1.71

km

Ave

rage

Out

com

e V

alue

3.36

3.33

Ave

rage

Cas

ualty

Rat

io1.

381.

53W

eigh

ted

Cas

ualty

Rat

io1.

110.

83

Page 45: EPW Brief - 31 Aug 2000

��$XJXVW����

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Oth

er N

atio

nalit

ies’

Per

form

ance

�So

me

arm

ies

(in

this

cas

e, th

e It

alia

ns)

perf

orm

ed

notic

eabl

y w

orse

th

an th

e no

rms

esta

blis

hed

by

Ger

man

y, U

S, a

nd

UK

Ita

lia

n A

rmy

Op

era

tio

ns

Off

en

sive

Op

era

tio

ns

De

fen

sive

Op

era

tio

ns

Act

ion

s5

6A

vera

ge A

ttac

ker

Str

engt

h10

4,50

056

,749

Ave

rage

Def

ende

r S

tren

gth

65,8

0973

,099

Ave

rage

For

ce R

atio

1.

91 t

o 1

0.

89 t

o 1

Wei

ghte

d F

orce

Rat

io

1.59

to

1

0.78

to

1A

vera

ge B

attle

Len

gth

(Day

s)36

.223

.17

Ave

rage

Att

acke

r Ta

nk S

tren

gth

5516

3A

vera

ge D

efen

der

Tank

Str

engt

h10

459

Ave

rage

Att

acke

r C

asua

lties

1,75

03,

384

Ave

rage

Def

ende

r C

asua

lties

5651

,631

Ave

rage

Att

acke

r C

asua

lties

per

day

1914

6A

vera

ge D

efen

der

Cas

ualti

es p

er d

ay2

2,22

9A

vera

ge A

ttac

ker

Per

cent

Los

s pe

r D

ay0.

030.

14A

vera

ge D

efen

der

Per

cent

Los

s pe

r D

ay0

4.55

Wei

ghte

d A

ttac

ker

Per

cent

Los

s pe

r D

ay0.

050.

26W

eigh

ted

Def

ende

r P

erce

nt L

oss

per

Day

03.

05A

vera

ge N

umbe

r of

Att

acke

r E

PW

s2

46,6

12A

vera

ge N

umbe

r of

Att

acke

r E

PW

s pe

r da

y0

2,01

2A

vera

ge N

umbe

r of

Def

ende

r E

PW

s72

101

Ave

rage

Num

ber

of D

efen

der

EP

Ws

per

day

24

Ave

rage

Per

cent

of A

ttac

ker

CIA

0.07

0.12

Ave

rage

Per

cent

of A

ttac

ker

CIA

per

day

00

Ave

rage

Per

cent

of D

efen

der

CIA

073

.32

Ave

rage

Per

cent

of D

efen

der

CIA

per

day

04.

32A

vera

ge P

erce

nt A

ttac

ker

Loss

es a

re C

IA9.

841.

90A

vera

ge P

erce

nt D

efen

der

Loss

es a

re C

IA1.

8290

.44

Tota

l Per

cent

Att

acke

r Lo

sses

are

CIA

4.11

2.98

Tota

l Per

cent

Def

ende

r Lo

sses

are

CIA

3.57

90.2

8A

vera

ge D

aily

Adv

ance

Rat

e

3

.50

km

1

3.23

km

Ave

rage

Out

com

e V

alue

1.60

5.33

Ave

rage

Cas

ualty

Rat

io14

.04

0.08

Wei

ghte

d C

asua

lty R

atio

31.2

50.

07