Epic research special report of 21 aug 2015
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Transcript of Epic research special report of 21 aug 2015
DAILY REPORT
21st
AUG. 2015
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
Global markets at a glance
The S&P 500 tumbled to a more than six-month low on Thursday, closing in negative territory for the year, on con-cern a decelerating Chinese economy will translate into slower global growth. Consumer stocks led the decline on Wall Street with Disney down 6 percent after a brokerage downgrade, while Apple fell 2 percent after a report that overall smartphone sales in China fell in the second quar-ter. The 14-day correlation between the S&P 500 and Brent prices is at a five-month high. The Dow Jones industrial av-erage .DJI fell 358.04 points, or 2.06 percent, to 16,990.69, the S&P 500 .SPX lost 43.88 points, or 2.11 percent, to 2,035.73 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC dropped 141.56 points, or 2.82 percent, to 4,877.49. The drops in the S&P 500 and Dow were the largest daily percentage declines since Feb. 3, 2014, while the Nasdaq fell the most since April 10, 2014.
European stock markets extended their losing streak on Thursday, with benchmark indexes in Frankfurt and London hitting 7-month lows as fears of a global economic slow-down took hold. The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 equity index closed down 1.9% at 1,477.35 pts. Its losses for Au-gust have already matched those for June, which was its weakest month in two years, as worries over lagging infla-tion and slowing growth in China weigh on global financial markets.
Previous day Roundup
A sharp selloff in the second half hit the market by its chin. The Sensex slipped 323.82 points or 1 percent at 27607.82 and the Nifty lost 122.40 points or 1 percent at 8372.75. About 787 shares have advanced, 2053 shares declined, and 105 shares are unchanged. It was the banking stocks, coupled with Nifty heavyweights like Reliance and Infosys which took the markets lower. Pharma and FMCG stocks outperformed with big gainers like Lupin, ITC, Dr Reddy's Labs, Sun Pharma and HUL. Banks, metals, IT and auto stocks were hammered out of shape. Vedanta, Reliance, BHEL, Tata Steel and Axis Bank were major laggards in the Sensex.
Index stats
The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial indices performed as follow; Consumer Durables [down 214.12pts], Capital Goods [down 328.92pts], PSU [down 150.47pts], FMCG [up 106.10pts], Realty [don 57.53pts], Power [down 36.82pts], Auto [down 253.22Pts], Healthcare [up 68.94Pts], IT [down 269.65 pts], Metals [down 183.08 pts], TECK [down 137.12pts], Oil& Gas [down 165.45pts].
World Indices
Index Value % Change
D J l 16990.69 -2.06
S&P 500 2035.73 -2.11
NASDAQ 4877.49 -2.82
FTSE 100 6367.89 -0.56
Nikkei 225 19612.93 -2.10
Hong Kong 22281.67 -2.09
Top Gainers
Company CMP Change % Chg
LUPIN 1,895.00 99.60 5.55
ITC 329.40 12.50 3.94
BPCL 905.00 17.90 2.02
DRREDDY 4,301.00 69.70 1.65
SUNPHARMA 939.00 11.25 1.21
Top Losers
Company CMP Change % Chg
YESBANK 725.55 48.70 -6.29
CAIRN 143.00 8.60 -5.67
PNB 158.75 9.25 -5.51
VEDL 98.25 4.25 -4.15
RELIANCE 915.65 38.95 -4.08
Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH
Symbol Prev. Close Change %Chg
AUROPHARMA 800.50 832.20 824.80
GLENMARK 1,223.80 1,242.55 1,227.70
STAR 1,321.05 1,374.10 1,361.00
ADANIPORTS 370.00 374.80 372.80
Indian Indices
Company CMP Change % Chg
NIFTY 8372.75 -122.40 -1.44
SENSEX 27607.82 -323.82 -1.16
Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW
Symbol Prev. Close Change %Chg
AMTEKAUTO 62.55 53.50 77.25
CAIRN 143.00 141.10 147.60
GAIL 321.00 318.40 327.00
HINDALCO 85.10 83.60 85.80
KSCL 494.50 427.30 481.00
DAILY REPORT
21st
AUG. 2015
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STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH] 1. RAJESH EXPORTS (CASH)
RAJESHEXPO finished around 3% loss on EOD chart it cre-ate shooting star pattern which is sign of reversal, since stochastic given cross over so we can see small correction from current for that it will be good to sell below 582 use stop loss of 593 for target of 575-568-5603 MACRO NEWS Aluminium sector too needs 5-10% import duty hike:
Hindalco Gold climbs to five-week high as Sept Fed hike hopes
fizzle IMF defers decision on adding yuan to key currency bas-
ket Payments banks pose risk to public lenders' market
share: Fitch Ratings Indian tea industry eyes Russian market; delegation to
visit Moscow in September Adani Group in talks with Softbank, Foxconn on $3 billion
solar plan Financially unviable: Wind's not fair for SAIL's steel unit
in Telangana Mining firms to pay 30 per cent royalty on exisiting
mines; 10 per cent on new Government steps up rate cut pressure on RBI Govt - No Proposal To Hike Excise Duty On Petrol & Die-
sel No Proposal To Levy Customs Duty On Crude REC Says Power Min Approves Sale & Transfer Of Shares
Of Maheshwaram Transmission Held By REC Transmis-sion Project To Sterlite Grid 3
STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE] 1. CEAT [FUTURE]
CEAT Future finished flat it break 1100 level but bounce back to lower level while from last two session it getting resis-tance at 1135 since after correction in market it maintain gains and momentum indicator not near to crossover for that it has more potential for up side so we advise to buy it above 1135 with strict SL of 1117 for target of 1148-1160.
2. JUST DIAL [FUTURE]
JUSTDIAL Future today made new life time low in derivatives of 949.20 and it finished at 956 with 5.21% loss since in last session volume and OI increase so sentiment also weak for that we advise to sell it below 949 for target of 940-925 while around 895 it can be give reversal use stop loss of 965.
DAILY REPORT
21st
AUG. 2015
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FUTURE & OPTION
MOST ACTIVE PUT OPTION
Symbol Op-
tion
Type
Strike
Price
LTP Traded
Volume
(Contracts)
Open
Interest
NIFTY CE 8,500 32.30 14,91,436 56,15,725
NIFTY CE 8,600 12.20 10,94,551 58,37,250
BANKNIFTY CE 19,000 32.20 1,32,123 9,70,350
RELIACNE CE 960 3.30 9,372 13,09,000
LUPIN CE 1,900 38.40 8,111 89,500
SBIN CE 280 2.60 7,032 38,04,000
SUNPHARMA CE 960 10.10 5,494 2,60,000
HINDUNILVR CE 900 6.70 5,208 6,02,750
MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION
Symbol Op-
tion
Type
Strike
Price
LTP Traded
Volume
(Contracts)
Open
Interest
NIFTY PE 8,400 83.40 11,91,701 34,17,400
NIFTY PE 8,300 44.65 10,47,614 59,16,875
BANKNIFTY PE 18,000 88.00 1,10,708 5,49,150
SBIN PE 270 4.85 5,346 27,29,000
LT PE 1,750 13.55 4,428 1,95,625
RELIANCE PE 940 25.60 4,301 6,31,000
INFY PE 1,100 5.15 4,151 5,69,000
AXISBANK PE 540 12.15 3,703 5,11,000
FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS
BUY OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY SELL
No. of
Contracts Amount in
Crores No. of
Contracts Amount in
Crores No. of
Contracts Amount in
Crores NET AMOUNT
INDEX FUTURES 76495 1868.82 161253 3639.92 575825 13463.80 -1771.10
INDEX OPTIONS 763226 18775.34 730887 18024.01 3059589 79114.52 751.32
STOCK FUTURES 164759 4501.12 154930 4158.47 1957808 52574.49 342.66
STOCK OPTIONS 134317 3655.59 137004 3732.74 156098 4178.29 -77.15
TOTAL 754.28
STOCKS IN NEWS Dr Reddy's recalls Rivastigmine Tartrate capsules of 1.5
mg strength from US
Gland Pharma promoters put their 60 per cent stake on the block
AuroPharma gets USFDA nod to market ulcer drug
NTPC tax-free bonds oversubscribed 7.25 times
Maruti hikes prices by Rs 3000-9000 across models TataSteel plans raise Rs1500cr by commercial paper
NIFTY FUTURE
NIFTY in last trading session fell down sharply in last trading hours, though it was facing selling pressure since morning. Nifty Future closed with long bearinsh candle but it also has a strong support around 8300 which has made Nifty come back many a times. So we may sell Nifty Future on small rise around 8430 for the targets of 8340, 8200 with strict stop loss of 8600
INDICES R2 R1 PIVOT S1 S2
NIFTY 8,552.17 8,462.08 8,410.92 8,320.83 8,269.67
BANK NIFTY 18,896.43 18,589.77 18,404.83 18,098.17 17,913.23
DAILY REPORT
21st
AUG. 2015
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RECOMMENDATIONS
GOLD
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY GOLD OCT ABOVE 27050 TGTS 27130,27220 SL BE-
LOW 26950
SELL GOLD OCT BELOW 26900 TGTS 26820,26730 SL
ABOVE 27000
SILVER
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY SILVER SEP ABOVE 36500 TGTS 36700,37000 SL BE-
LOW 36200
SELL SILVER SEP BELOW 36200 TGTS 36000,35700 SL
ABOVE 36500
COMMODITY ROUNDUP
Gold jumped to trade around six-week high on Thursday following global move and depreciation in the rupeeagainst the dollar. Standard gold shot up by 1.6% to close at Rs
26,620 per 10 gm following around 2% or $23 increase in
global markets in the last two days. Gold is currently trading
at $1142 in London, a rise of around $9 from previous close.
Triggered by dampening prospects of interest rate revision
in September as hinted in the minutes of the FOMC, gold's upward move is expected to continue to see the next sup-port level of $1,165 an oz.
Silver followed suit and closed with a gain of Rs 1,000 at Rs
36,500 a kg in domestic market in tune with $0.25 rise in
the white precious metal to $15.54 an oz in London. Depre-ciation in the rupee against the dollar supported upward
move of precious metals.
Base metals hit multi-year lows on the LME due to height-ening risk of a demand slowdown from China, the world’s
largest producer and consumer. The recent devaluation of the Chinese yuan will make base metals’ costlier and poses
a risk to their imports into China.
Copper slipped below the psychological barrier of $5,000 a
tonne before recovering to settle at $5,007 on Wednesday. The metal had touched this level last in July 2009 following
the crash in financial markets after the collapse of Lehman
Brothers. Metals are falling in anticipation of falling con-sumption and swelling supply as global producers have not
announced any major output cuts despite incurring losses at
prevailing prices. Oversupply of most base metals is likely, resulting in a further fall in prices.
Following copper, aluminium prices also fell to $1,522, their
lowest level since June 2009. Aluminium has declined 17 per
cent this year. Zinc and nickel also settled at $1,776 a tonne
and $10,330 a tonne on the LME, their lowest levels since August 2012 and April 2009, respectively. While copper re-ported a 21 per cent decline, zinc and nickel have plunged
18 per cent and 31 per cent, respectively, in 2015.
Barclays Capital said in a report there was a growing risk that copper prices would fall further because of a Chinese hard landing. Its baseline scenario was for China’s growth to
slow to 6.8 per cent and copper consumption to ease to 4
per cent.
DAILY REPORT
21st
AUG. 2015
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
NCDEX
RECOMMENDATIONS
DHANIYA
BUY CORIANDER SEP ABOVE 10686 TARGET 10716 10766 SL
BELOW 10656
SELL CORIANDER SEP BELOW 10550 TARGET 10520 10470
SL ABOVE 10580
GUARSGUM
BUY GUARGUM OCT ABOVE 8150 TARGET 8200 8270 SL
BELOW 8090
SELL GUARGUM OCT BELOW 7920 TARGET 7870 7800 SL
ABOVE 7980
NCDEX ROUNDUP
Mentha oil prices rose 0.89 per cent to Rs 951.80 per kg in futures trade as traders created fresh positions, supported by pickup in demand from consuming industries in spot market. At MCX mentha oil for delivery in August rose by Rs 8.40, or 0.89 per cent, to Rs 951.80 per kg, clocking a busi-ness volume of 865 lots. The oil for September delivery traded higher by Rs 8.10, or 0.84 per cent, to Rs 964.90 per kg, with a trading volume of 488 lots. Fresh positions built up by speculators on the back of a rise in demand from con-suming industries in the spot market against restricted sup-plies from Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh led to rise in mentha oil prices at futures trade.
Wholesale onion prices on Thursday hit a two-year high of Rs 4,900 a quintal, shooting up by Rs 400 at the country’s largest bulb wholesale market in Lasalgaon, Nashik. urther, rabi onion inventory in the country has halved to 14 lakh tonnes, from 28 lakh tonnes in July. Total onion production is estimated to be 189 lakh tonnes for the 2014-15 crop year (July-June), slightly lower than the 194 lakh tonnes a year ago. According to the government, teams of Food and Civil Supplies Department was continuously monitoring the supply and prices of onions in the national capital.
Crude oil rebounded from the lowest level in more than six years, as investors cut bets for a US interest-rateincrease in September, sending the dollar lower. West Texas Intermedi-ate (WTI) futures rose as much as 1.3 per cent, as the falling US currency increased the appeal of commodities as a store of value.
NCDEX INDICES
Index Value % Change
CAETOR SEED 4061 -1.22
CHANA 4674 -1.74
CORIANDER 10220 -2.98
COTTON SEED 1960 -0.66
GUAR SEED 3589 -0.06
JEERA 16000 -0.28
MUSTARDSEED 4205 +1.13
REF. SOY OIL 585.55 +0.04
TURMERIC 7850 +4.67
WHEAT 1548 +3.27
DAILY REPORT
21st
AUG. 2015
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RBI Reference Rate
Currency Rate Currency Rate
Rupee- $ 65.2385 Yen-100 52.5900
Euro 72.5713 GBP 102.2092
CURRENCY
USD/INR
BUY USD/INR AUG ABOVE 65.6 TARGET 65.73 65.88 SL BE-
LOW 65.4
SELL USD/INR AUG BELOW 65.5 TARGET 65.37 65.22 SL
ABOVE 65.7
EUR/INR
BUY EUR/INR AUG ABOVE 73.42 TARGET 73.57 73.77 SL BE-
LOW 73.22
SELL EUR/INR AUG BELOW 73.15 TARGET 73 72.8 SL ABOVE
73.35
CURRENCY MARKET UPDATES:
The rupee weakened by 28 paise to close at Rs 65.55 against the dollar on Thursday. The Indian rupee fell to as low as 65.50 to the dollar on Thursday, its lowest since September 2013, tracking losses in Asian currencies after a slump in Chinese equities reinforced concerns about the world's second-largest economy. The rupee was at 65.4750/4800 at 03.33 pm (1003 GMT), compared with its close of 65.2650/2750.
Since the beginning of this year, the rupee has lost 3.8%, while foreign institutional investors have bought $6.99 bil-lion from local equity markets and $6.34 billion from bond markets. The devaluation of Yuan by China led to the re-cent fall, but rupee fared better than most of other Asian currencies in the period. the RBI is not actively intervening in the currency market.
Last few days move convinces me that RBI will not behave too aggressively and will not make great use of reserves. All hedge decisions have to be taken accordingly. The cur-rent move may extend till 66.0 or 67.0 a dollar.
The yield on India’s 10-year benchmark bond closed at 7.746% compared with its Wednesday’s close of 7.741%. It touched a high of 7.712%—a level last seen on 22 June. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.
The dollar index, which measures the US currency’s strength against major currencies, was trading at 96.49, up 0.14% from its previous close of 96.359.
Most of the Asian currencies closed lower. The Philippines peso fell 0.55%, Malaysian ringgit 0.53%, Indonesian rupiah 0.3%, Thai baht 0.3%, Singapore dollar 0.13%, and Japa-nese yen declined 0.1%. However, China renminbi was up 0.1%. The minutes showed policymakers continued to ex-press broad concerns about lagging inflation and the weak world economy even as the US job market improved fur-ther. Market expectations for a Fed hike in September fell from one in two to roughly one in three after the minutes were published,
DAILY REPORT
21st
AUG. 2015
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CALL REPORT
S T O
PERFORMANCE UPDATES
Date Commodity/ Currency
Pairs Contract Strategy Entry Level Target Stop Loss Remark
20/08/15 NCDEX DHANIYA SEPT. BUY 10860 1089010940 10830 NOT EXECUTED
20/08/15 NCDEX DHANIYA SEPT. SELL 10665 10635-10585 10695 BOOKED FULL PROFIT
20/08/15 NCDEX GUARGUM OCT. BUY 8150 8200-8270 8090 NOT EXECUTED
20/08/15 NCDEX GUARGUM OCT. SELL 7980 7930-7860 8040 BOOKED PROFIT
20/08/15 MCX GOLD OCT. BUY 26260 26340-26430 26170 BOOKED FULL PROFIT
20/08/15 MCX GOLD OCT. SELL 26100 26020-25930 26200 NOT EXECUTED
20/08/15 MCX SILVER SEPT. BUY 35600 35800-36100 35300 NOT EXECUTED
20/08/15 MCX SILVER SEPT. SELL 35300 3510-34800 34600 NOT EXECUTED
20/08/15 USD/INR AUG. BUY 65.35 65.48-65.63 65.15 BOOKED FULL PROFIT
20/08/15 USD/INR AUG. SELL 65.25 65.12-64.97 65.45 SL TRIGGERED
20/08/15 EUR/INR AUG. BUY 72.20 72.35-72.55 72.00 BOOKED FULL PROFIT
20/08/15 EUR/INR AUG. SELL 71.90 71.75-71.55 72.10 NOT EXECUTED
Date Scrip
CASH/
FUTURE/
OPTION
Strategy Entry Level Target Stop Loss Remark
20/08/15 NIFTY FUTURE BUY 8420 8500-8600 8300 CALL OPEN
20/08/15 SYNDICATE BANK FUTURE SELL 105-106 103.6-101 107.5 NOT EXECUTED
20/08/15 UPL FUTURE SELL 570-573 565-559 579 NOT EXECUTED
20/08/15 KEL CASH BUY 119 121-124 116 BOOKED PROFIT
14/08/15 NIFTY FUTURE SELL 8460-8480 8380-8250 8600 BOOKED PROFIT
19/08/15 NIFTY FUTURE SELL 8480 8400-8300 8620 BOOKED PROFIT
18/08/15 NIFTY FUTURE BUY 8500 8580-8700 8350 CALL OPEN
DAILY REPORT
21st
AUG. 2015
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NEXT WEEK'S U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
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TIME REPORT PERIOD ACTUAL CONSENSUS
FORECAST PREVIOUS
MONDAY, AUG. 17
8:30 AM EMPIRE STATE INDEX AUG. -- 3.9
10 AM HOME BUILDERS' INDEX AUG. -- 60
TUESDAY, AUG. 18
8:30 AM HOUSING STARTS JULY 1.24 MLN 1.174 MLN
8:30 AM BUILDING PERMITS JULY -- 1.337 MLN
WEDNESDAY, AUG. 19
8:30 AM CONSUMER PRICE INDEX JULY 0.1% 0.3%
8:30 AM CORE CPI JULY 0.2% 0.2%
2 PM FOMC MINUTES JULY 28-
29
THURSDAY, AUG. 20
8:30 AM WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS AUG. 15 N/A N/A
10 AM PHILLY FED AUG. -- 5.7
10 AM EXISTING HOME SALES JULY 5.40 MLN 5.49 MLN
10 AM LEADING INDICATORS JULY -- 0.6%
FRIDAY, AUG. 21
NONE SCHEDULED