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Epic research daily agri report 14th june 2016
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Transcript of Epic research daily agri report 14th june 2016
DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT
14 June 2016
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Market Views
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MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL
TURMERIC
JULY 8040 8102 7970 8010 -0.50 9405
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
7953
SUPP. 2
7895
PIVOT
8027
Turmeric short term
trend is bearish and
May continue in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
8085
RES. 2
8159
CORIANDER
JULY 6830 6860 6780 6825 -0.15 3950
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP.1
6783
SUPP. 2
6742
PIVOT
6822
Coriander short term
trend is bearish and May
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
6863
RES. 2
6902
GUARGUM
JULY 5700 5850 5660 5760 +0.70 22644
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
5663
SUPP. 2
5567
PIVOT
5757
Guargum short term
trend is bullish and
May continue in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
5853
RES. 2
5947
CASTORSEED
- - - - - - -
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
-
SUPP. 2
-
PIVOT
--
RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
-
RES. 2
-
Most Active Contract
3
NCDEX INDICES
Index ValuePre.
Close
%
Change
CASTORSEED - - -
CHANA 7070 6921 +2.15
CORIANDER 6740 6779 -0.58
GUARGUM - - -
JEERA 17135 16610 +3.16
MUSTARD
SEED4753 4661 +1.97
SOYABEAN - - -
TURMERIC 7958 7946 -0.15
TOP LOSERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATECURRENT
PRICECHANGE
CHANGE
%
TURMERIC 20-06-2016 7958.00 -120.00 -1.49%
CORIANDER 20-06-2016 6740.00 -87.00 -1.27%
REF SOYA OIL 20-06-2016 640.80 -4.15 -0.64%
TOP GAINERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATECURRENT
PRICECHANGE
CHANGE
%
CHANA 20-06-2016 7070.00 290.00 4.28%
JEERA 20-06-2016 17135.00 660.00 4.01%
GUAR GUM 20-06-2016 5670.00 210.00 3.85%
Commodities In News
4
ECONOMIC NEWS
Government-to-government contract is being planned to import pulses to
bridge the supply-demand gap and maintain stability of prices, Union Food
and Consumer Affairs Minister Ram Vilas Paswan today said. The
situation of pulses is now under control and month on month their prices
have gone down, he told reporters here.
"There is a gap between demand and supply. This year our production is
170 lakh tonnes, last year it was 171 lakh tonnes, before that it was 173
lakh tonnes. "On the demand side it is increasing 10 lakh tonnes per year.
This year it will be 246 lakh tonnes," he said. He said there would be a gap
of over 76 lakh tonnes. In this case, private importers may import only 60
lakh tonnes. For the rest, the government has planned to have government-
to-government contract to fill the gap. "Our team will go to Myanmar and
other countries for this."
Government may scrap the 25 per cent import duty on wheat if prices
continue to rise, Food Minister Ram Vilas Paswan said. At present, import
of wheat attracts a 25 per cent duty, which is applicable till June 30.
Despite expected increase in production this crop year, the prices have
shown a rising trend over the past few weeks. "The government is keeping
a close watch on wheat prices. So keeping in mind the recent rise in price
trend of wheat, We can rollback the import duty on wheat. We don't want
extra burden on consumers," Paswan said. He added that wheat
procurement is so far down by 50 lakh tonnes to 229 lakh tonnes compared
with 280 lakh tonnes in the year ago period. In March, the governmenthad extended the import duty on wheat by another three months, tillJune, to curb imports as domestic production is estimated to rise by over8 per cent this year. Indian flour mills have already contracted to importthree lakh tonnes from Australia and France for shipment in July-
September.
Turmeric futures traded on negative note on Friday but closed
the week higher by 0.33 per cent on good spot demand. The
Jun’16 delivery contract on NCDEX cl osed 1. 23 % down to settle at
Rs 8,050 /quintal. R eports of steady domestic demand and
expectation of higher s owing prospects have pressurizing prices. The
prices may be range bound to higher on reports of forecast of above
normal rains in turmeric growing area in south India.
Chana prices surged by 2.46 per cent to Rs 7,080 per quintal in
futures trading today as participants widened positions, tracking rising
demand in the spot market amid tight stocks position. At the National
Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, chana for delivery in July shot
up by Rs 170 or 2.46 per cent to Rs 7,080 per quintal with an open
interest of 13,520 lots.
On similar lines, the commodity for delivery in June contracts traded
higher by Rs 87 or 1.26 per cent to Rs 7,008 per quintal in 310 lots.
The sugar season (SS) in India starts in October and ends in
September the following year. Not only is output in SS 2015-16
estimated to fall nearly 10 per cent to 25.1 million tonnes compared to
SS 2014-15 but if the government's initial estimates are anything to go
by, output at 23.5 mt for SS 2016-17 will fall another six per cent year-
on-year. Industry officials fear that if yields (finished sugar output from
cane) come lower than expected, production might fall further. This
would help prices stay at elevated levels, which means companies will
first generate a good amount of profit and cash to pay arrears and then
repay debts. Not surprisingly, analysts are bullish on sugar companies
from a long-term perspective. Deven Choksey, managing director, KR
Choksey Shares and Securities, says: "Globally, sugar prices' forward
curve indicates strength. In India, companies are holding stock which
will fetch higher prices and the industry has entered a three-year bull
cycle which began in January 2016.
5
Fundamental Watch : Cotton
COTTON PRICES AT KEY SPOT MARKET National Market Update
According to government and trade sources, Indian cotton acreage is likely
to decline by 5 -7 per cent this season compared to 118 lakh hectares during
the previous year. According to early estimates acreage is likely to decline by
around 10 lakh hectares. Delay in monsoon, fear of pest attack which crop
production previous year and advise by State Governments to decline acreage
under cotton are the factors behind likely decline in acreage.
Export of cotton-based textile goods declined in 2015-16 by 2.1 per cent to
$36.2 billion compared to $37.1 billion in 2014-15. Exports have been
declining during the last few months. The high price of domestic cotton,
coupled with heavy duties on import of cheaper Chinese varieties, has affected
production of cotton goods according to industry officials.
The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has estimated India’s cotton output in
2015 -16 at 341.50 lakh bales (of 170 kg each), around 10.8 per cent lower
Thicompared to the previous year’s production of 383 lakh bales. The
projected balance sheet drawn by the CAI for 2015-16 pegs total supply at
429.10 lakh bales, while domestic consumption is seen at 305 lakh bales, thus
leaving an available surplus of 124.10 lakh bales.
The Foreign Agriculture Services (FAS), division of USDA has lowered the
production forecast for India in its latest report to 356 lakh bales. The reason
for the downfall in the revision is lower yield expectation in Punjab and
Haryana due to the attack of white fly and impact of pink bollworm in Gujarat.
CENTER 13-Jun-16 11-Jun-16 Change
RAJKOT 5860 5795 +65
BHIWANI 5500 5500 UNCH
ADAMPUR 5720 5630 +90
AHMEDABAD 5760 5625 +125
GONDAL 5885 5785 +100
GUNTUR NA NA -
RAICHUR 5969 NA -
Technical Outlook
6
SELL CORIANDER JULY BELOW 6760 TARGET 6715 6615 SL
ABOVE 6825
SELL GUARGUM JULY BELOW 5750 TARGET 5700 5630 SL
ABOVE 5810
SELL TURMERIC JULY BELOW 7970 TARGET 7926 7866 SL
ABOVE 8030
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