Epic Research Daily Agri Report 08 JAN 2016
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Transcript of Epic Research Daily Agri Report 08 JAN 2016
7/21/2019 Epic Research Daily Agri Report 08 JAN 2016
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DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT
08 January 2015
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Market Views
2
MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL
TURMERIC
APR 9970 10100 9878 10066 +0.76 6865
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
9929
SUPP. 2
9793
PIVOT
10015
Turmeric short term
trend is bullish and
May continue in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
10151
RES. 2
10237
CORIANDER
JAN 7700 7989 7660 7989 +4.00 3020
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP.1
7770
SUPP. 2
7550
PIVOT
7880
Coriander short term
trend is bearish and May
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
8099
RES. 2
8208
GUARGUM
JAN 6100 6100 5740 5930 -2.79 14507
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
5747
SUPP. 2
5563
PIVOT
5923
Guargum short term
trend is bearish and
May continue in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
6107
RES. 2
6283
CASTORSEED
JAN 3690 3740 3670 3700 +0.08 32450
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
3666
SUPP. 2
3633
PIVOT
3703
Castorseed short term
trend is bearish and
May continue in
coming day.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
3737
RES. 2
3773
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Most Active Contract
3
NCDEX INDICES
Index ValuePre.
Close
%
Change
CASTORSEED 3660 3665 -0.14
CHANA 4870 4855 +0.31
CORIANDER 7420 7135 +3.99
GUARGUM 5930 6100 -2.79
JEERA 13965 13805 +1.16
MUSTARD
SEED4242 4220 +0.52
SOYABEAN 3647 3595 +1.45
TURMERIC 10066 9990 +0.76
TOP LOSERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATECURRENT
PRICE
CHANGECHANGE
%
CORIANDER 20-01-2016 7420.00 310.00 4.36%
SOYABEAN 20-01-2016 3647.00 51.00 1.42%
JEERA 20-01-2016 13965.00 175.00 1.27%
CHANA 20-01-2016 4870.00 50.00 1.04%
TURMERIC 20-04-2016 10066.00 88.00 0.88%
RAPESEED-MUSTARD
SEED20-01-2016 4242.00 36.00 0.86%
CASTOR SEED NEW 20-01-2016 3660.00 1.00 0.03%
TOP GAINERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATECURRENT
PRICECHANGE CHANGE %
BARLEY 20-01-2016 1351.00 -39.00 -2.81%
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Commodities In News
4
ECONOMIC NEWS
Having herald Green Revolution in the past, farmers in Punjab are now
keen on Green energy by setting up solar projects in their farms. Solar
power proposals to set up projects of capacity 629 MW by farmers have
poured in against the target of 500 MW set by Punjab Energy Development
Agency under the Farmers' Solar Scheme."As such projects doesn't include
the cost of land the entire cost could be covered in 7-8 years," says
Ravinder Bansal a farmer from Muktsar who is keen to install solar project
of capacity 2 MW on part of his family owned ancestral land. Under the
scheme the PEDA facilitates Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with
Punjab State Power Corporation Limited. The PPA is effective for a period
of 25 years from the date of commissioning of the project.But Bansal is
unsure whether his project will get nod from the agency. As after Prime
Minister Narendra Modi ramped up Solar target in June last year to 100
GW by 2022, more and more farmers have evinced interest in the scheme.The scheme was launched by Punjab government in the beginning of the
current financial year."A large number of proposals will not get approved
as the target under the current scheme is 500 MW," chief executive, Punjab
Energy Development Agency Amarpal Singh told a leading newspaper.
Singh said that the scheme is part of the strategy to promote small grid
based solar projects.Against PEDA announced tariff of Rs 7.4 per kwh,
lowest tariff of Rs 6.25 per kwh have been offered by a famer under the
reverse bidding process, senior official in Punjab Energy Development
Agency said.As many as 381 farmers so far have submitted proposals to set
up solar power projects in the state. Under the scheme, PEDA is promoting projects with capacity between 1 MW to 2.5 MW from farmers who owns
land. A project of one-MW capacity requires around five-acre of land."The
projects are expected to be approved in the coming weeks," senior official
in Punjab Energy Development Agency said. Farmers are awaiting
extension of the scheme as a large number of projects are unlikely to be
covered under the scheme due to overwhelming response to the scheme.
Mustard Seed settled down on weak export demand and on
oversupply woes. There is subdued demand from retail buyers as prices
have increased. Mustard oil consumption has fallen over the past two to
three months by almost 60% as prices increased to 120 -130 per liter.
However, good sowing progress subdued demand for meal exports and
record mustard oil imports also putting pressure on prices. There is aworry in the industry about the rabi crop as the winter chill, which is
required for the mustard crop, is still missing.Area coverage of RM
seed this year is lower by 3.5 lakh ha compared to corresponding
period of Rabi 2014-15 as per latest government data release. Mustard
is planted on 60.8 lakh hectare. In Rajasthan, 23.7 lh has been sown as
on Dec 17, compared to 24.34 lh sown last year same time. On the
export front, the shipment of rapeseed meal exports plunge y/y by more
than 61.4 per cent until November to 2.95 lt.According to latest USDA
report, Global rapeseed production is projected at 67.5 mt, up 0.5 mtcompared to last month’s forecast. Canada rapeseed production is
raised 1.7 mt to 17.2 mt.
Ref Soya oil settled down on weak global cues, physical demand and
slack buying support in soya meal. Moreover, reports on more than two
fold increase in soyoil imports in Nov compared to last year data
capped further rise. Import of soybean oil rose more than twofold to 2,
61,338 tonnes in November from 1, 21,097 tonnes in the year-ago
period. Recently, Argentina government has removed export duty on
soybean and soya oil to make their exports competitive, which resultsin falling in the international markets. Earlier, the Agriculture Ministry
has proposed further hike in import duty of edible oils by 5 per cent in
a bid to protect the interest of farmers, but the decision is still pending.
The Ministry has proposed increase in import duty on crude edible oils
to 17.5 per cent and on refined edible oils to 25 per cent from the
existing level. According to latest SEA report, import of vegetable oils
during November 2015 is reported at 1.34 mt compared to 1.19 mt for
November 2014.
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Fundamental Watch : Castorseed
CASTORSEED PRICES AT KEY SPOT
MARKETNational Market Update
Good production prospects, higher availability of old stock and declining
prices despite better demand for oil from overseas market would continue to
encourage buyers to cover their short position. New crop will hit the marketone month earlier and pressure on market fundamental may continue.
India exported almost double volume of castor oil in the week ending 3rd
Jan-2016.Total oil export was registered at 14339.39 tonne against 71125
tonne exported in the last week of Dec-2015..France and USA brought 5500
and 4523 tonne oil. Average FoB realized during the week was $1334.55 per
tonne. The highest and lowest quotes were $1836.6 & $1106.50 per tonne.
This year seed production may cross 15 lakh tonne while actual yearly
consumption is not more than12/12.5 lakh tonne seed. With ample availability
seed prices may slip below Rs 3000 in the peak arrival season. This year oil
export has increased by 7 % so far. However, higher stock did not allow
market to get firmer so far. Overall sentiment remains bearish.
Agriculture statistics Division, DES has released its 1st Adv estimates of
Production of food-grains for 2015-16 on 16.09.2015.It has estimated 19.44
lakh tonne seed production this year. The production target for 2015-16 has been fixed at 20.34 lakh ton. India has produced 19.63 lakh tonne castor seed
in 2014-15 as per revised 1st Adv estimate. Private trade estimate for the year
is much lower and is between 15 to 16 lakh tonne for 2015-16.However,it is
too early to talk about the final size as sowing is just over.
CENTER 07-Jan-15 06-Jan-15 Change
SUMERPUR NA NA -
PATAN 3450 3525 -75
MEHSANA 3475 3500 -25
BHABAR 3525 3550 -25
HARJI 3575 3550 +25
RAJKOT 3385 3445 -60
KADI 3500 3540 -40
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Technical Outlook
6
BUY CORIANDER JAN ABOVE 7450 TARGET 7500 7590 SL
BELOW 7383
BUY GUARGUM JAN ABOVE 6100 TARGET 6150 6220 SL
BELOW 6040
BUY TURMERIC APRIL ABOVE 10120 TARGET 10165 10225 SL
BELOW 10050
SELL CASTORSEED JAN BELOW 3650 TARGET 3625 3585 SL
ABOVE 3700
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