1. EO CT and University of Hartford Hartford, CT February 2014Kaihan Krippendorff www.outthinker.com www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

2. www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 3. www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 4. www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 5. Ray Kroc www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 6. Mohammad Yunuswww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 7. www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 8. Tatawww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 9. Thomas Edison www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 10. Betsy Johnson www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 11. Richard BransonOprah WinfreyDhirubhai AmbaniBill GatesSichir HondaCharles Revsonwww.kaihan.netElizabeth ArdenHenry Ford 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 12. Martin Luther King, Jr.Rosa ParksMother TeresaMahatma GandhiMohammad YunusMargaret Thatcherwww.kaihan.netNelson MandelaBenjamin Franklin 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 13. Mark Zuckerberg CEO, FacebookArianna Huffington CEO, Huffington PostElon Musk CEO, Tesla MotorsSusan Lyne CEO, Gilt GroupeCory Booker Mayor, Newark, NJ, USAMarissa Mayer CEO, YahooWayne Gattinella CEO, WebMDRobert Keane Sabrina Herrera Cofounder, Genomma Lab CEO, VistaprintJeff Bezos Founder, Amazon.comLarry Page CEO, GoogleAnn Hand CEO, Project Frog www.kaihan.netJosh Linkner Founder, ePrizeTom Adams CEO, Rosetta StoneMark Vadon Founder, Blue Nile 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 14. Some Victimswww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 15. Most Admired Companies Replaced2000 1. GE 2. Microsoft 3. Dell 4. Cisco 5. Wal-Mart2005 1. Dell 2. GE 3. Starbucks* 4. Wal-Mart 5. Southwest A.*2010 1. Apple* 2. Google* 3. Berkshire H.* 4. J&J* 5. Amazon*Source: Fortune Magazine, Most Admired Companies www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 16. Fortune 500 Survival is FallingSource: What Does Fortune 500 Turnover Mean? Dane Stangler and Sam Arbesman Ewing Marion; Kauffman Foundation, June 2012 www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 17. S&P Lifespan Shorteningwww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 18. First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.Mohandas Gandhiwww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 19. Theth 4OptionThe option beyond the obvious choices; the option others do not see, will not consider, and will not respond effectively to.www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 20. Climb the wallsWaitGo homewww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 21. How can we predictably create a 4th Option?www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 22. Two Standard Approaches Option narrowingRules 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.X X XLay out options, apply data, arrive at the optimal optionAlkdjfklsdlkj Asdlkfj bou Alsk boiuoidf Goibjhkal dgs Glijgbuu gds gljgoiudFollow proven rules or best practiceswww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 23. Five Conversations: The Outthinker Process ImagineDissectExpandAnalyzeSellChoose leverage points others overlookGenerate more potential strategiesChoose strategies competitors will not copyBuild buy-in from key stakeholdersObjectives Imagine and commit to realizing a different futurewww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 24. www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 25. www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 26. URBN Revenue History $ Millions 2,470 2,270 1,8401,9401,510 1,230 1,090830 35042520022003550200420052006200720082009201020112012Source: Bloomberg & TIAA-CREF www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 27. URBN Results GrowthProfitability5Y Ave.* Revenue CAGR (%)5Y Ave.* EBITD Margin (%)URBN13ANF**5Industry5201214* 5 years average as of October 2013 ** Abercrombie & Fitch, closest peer by market capitalization Source: Reuterswww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 28. College students only Used clothing Artists not managers in charge Manager freedom Every store different www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 29. The 8PsPosition Process PricePromotionProductPlace Physical experience0 no difference 1 4 year difference 2 5+ year differencePeoplewww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 30. 8P tool on www.kaihan.netwww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 31. Five Conversations: The Outthinker Process ImagineDissectExpandAnalyzeSellChoose leverage points others overlookGenerate more potential strategiesChoose strategies competitors will not copyBuild buy-in from key stakeholdersObjectives Imagine and commit to realizing a different futurewww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 32. How Do Great Strategists See the Winning Move?Alexandra Kosteniuk www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 33. ConsciousnessPhonetic loopSource:Visuo-special sketchpad???Baddeley model of short term working memorywww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 34. ConsciousnessPhonetic loopSource:Visuo-special sketchpadEpisodic bufferBaddeley model of short term working memorywww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 35. Relative number of narratives chess players recognize:Grand masterMaster www.kaihan.netExpert 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 36. Europe & Americas Fairy talesJapan KoanIndia PuranasChina 36 stratagemswww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 37. Identifying OutthinkersRevenue growth (CAGR)(EBITDA) Profit marginValue creation (TRS)www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 38. Core Researchwww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 39. Narratives to Find a Fourth Option#22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #7 Force two-front battle #33 Be good #32 Create something out of nothingwww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 40. 22 Move Early to the Next Battlegroundwww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 41. 22 Move Early to the Next Battleground I just think a future in which anyone can shoot stuff into space is more exciting than one which only the government can. Elon Musk, founder, Space-X (2003 interview)www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 42. 22 Move Early to the Next Battlegroundwww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 43. 22 Move Early to the Next Battleground Identify and move early to the next battleground.Where is the next battleground? - Technological trends? - Social shifts? - Geographies? - Buying patterns? - Needs?www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 44. Narratives to Find a Fourth Option#22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #7 Force two-front battle #33 Be good #32 Create something out of nothingwww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 45. www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 46. www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 47. www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 48. 34Coordinate the Uncoordinatedwww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 49. 34Coordinate the Uncoordinatedwww.kaihan.net49 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 50. www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 51. www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 52. 34Coordinate the Uncoordinated Combine and coordinate independent elements within your environment to orchestrate much greater power. Who would we like to coordinate? - Customers - Experts - Employees - Real estate - Regulators - Competitors - Driveways - www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 53. Narratives to Find a Fourth Option#22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #7 Force two-front battle #33 Be good #32 Create something out of nothingwww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 54. 7 Force a Two-Front Battlewww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 55. 7 Force a Two-Front Battle There is no physical analog for what Amazon.com is becoming. - Jeff BezosCloud providersRetailwww.kaihan.netCloud services 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 56. 7 Force a Two-Front BattleShoesCustomer servicewww.kaihan.netShoes 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 57. 7 Force a two-front battle Project your unique capability into a new area. What is your unique advantage/ capability? Into what new area could you project this?www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 58. Narratives to Find a Fourth Option#22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #7 Force two-front battle #33 Be good #32 Create something out of nothingwww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 59. 33Be Good ShareholdersEnvironmentCommunityCorporation Government / countryEmployeesCustomerswww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 60. 33 Be Goodwww.kaihan.net61 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 61. www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 62. The Holstee Manifestowww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 63. 33Be good Adopt a strategy that Benefits others. How can you profitably benefit key stakeholders that you are not now considering?www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 64. Narratives to Find a Fourth Option#22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #7 Force two-front battle #33 Be good #32 Create something out of nothingwww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 65. 32 Create Something Out of Nothingwww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 66. 32 Create Something Out of NothingJulie Pickens www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 67. 32 Create Something Out of NothingIngvar Kampradwww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 68. 32 Create Something Out of Nothingwww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 69. 32 Create Something Out of Nothingwww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 70. 32 Create something out of nothing Add a new piece the board. What would you like to create/ add to the game? - New categories? - New occasions or needs? - New customers? - New suppliers? - New distributors? - New regulations?www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 71. Find More Stratagems at www.kaihan.netwww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 72. Narratives to Find a Fourth Option#22 Move early to the next battlegroundWhere is the next battleground?#34 Coordinate the uncoordinatedWho could you coordinate?#7 Force two-front battleHow can you project into a new sector?#33 Be goodHow can you be good?#32 Create something out of nothingWhat can you create?www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 73. EO CT and University of Hartford Part II Hartford, CT February 2014Kaihan Krippendorff www.outthinker.com www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 74. Recap1.Fourth option2.Across 8 dimensions 3.Using IDEASwww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 75. Outthinkers are Outliers Who the hell wants to hear actors talk? Harry M. Warner, CEO of Warner Brothers Pictures, circa 1927Heavier than air flying machines are impossible. Lord Kelvin President, Royal Society, circa 1895There is no likelihood man can ever tap the power of the atom. There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.Robert Millikan, Nobel Prize in Physics, 1923Ken Olsen President , Digital Equipment Corporation,1977The phonograph is not of any commercial value. Thomas Alva Edison (Inventor of the Phonograph), circa 1880 www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 76. Session goals1.Find a Fourth Option for your business/ career 2.Learn a process and set of tools 3.Feel confident in your ability to apply these going forward www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 77. Five Conversations: The Outthinker Process ImagineDissectExpandAnalyzeSellChoose leverage points others overlookGenerate more potential strategiesChoose strategies competitors will not copyBuild buy-in from key stakeholdersObjectives Imagine and commit to realizing a different futurewww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 78. You just received a $1,000. How would you allocate the money? Use it to buy something nice for someone special. Invest it in a retirement fund. Plan a fun and extravagant occasion. Put it in a checking account.Me NowMe Later3xwww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 79. I | IMAGINE Objective: Give yourself permission to dream a different future.www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 80. I | IMAGINE Objective: Force yourself to travel to a different future.www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 81. I | IMAGINE Objective: Force yourself to travel to a different future.www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 82. I | IMAGINE Objective: Force yourself to travel to a different future.www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 83. I | IMAGINE Objective: Bring that future back to the present.www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 84. I | IMAGINE Objective: Attain strategic clarity.www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 85. Five Conversations: The Outthinker Process ImagineDissectExpandAnalyzeSellChoose leverage points others overlookGenerate more potential strategiesChoose strategies competitors will not copyBuild buy-in from key stakeholdersObjectives Imagine and commit to realizing a different futurewww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 86. Vistaprintwww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 87. VistaprintCompetitorsStandard size and paperCustomizedMicrobusinessesBig businessesOnly onlineFace to faceTechnology marketiersPrinting Experts www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 88. Vistaprint 0 no differencePosition ProductPricePromotionProcessesPlacePhysical experience Peoplewww.kaihan.net1 up to 4-year difference 2. 5+ year difference 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 89. Five Conversations: The Outthinker Process ImagineDissectExpandAnalyzeSellChoose leverage points others overlookGenerate more potential strategiesChoose strategies competitors will not copyBuild buy-in from key stakeholdersObjectives Imagine and commit to realizing a different futurewww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 90. How Do Great Strategists See the Winning Move?Alexandra Kosteniuk www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 91. Relative number of narratives chess players recognize:Grand masterMaster www.kaihan.netExpert 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 92. Narratives to Find a Fourth Option#22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #7 Force two-front battle #33 Be good #32 Create something out of nothingwww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 93. Find More Stratagems at www.kaihan.netwww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 94. Five Conversations: The Outthinker Process ImagineDissectExpandAnalyzeSellChoose leverage points others overlookGenerate more potential strategiesChoose strategies competitors will not copyBuild buy-in from key stakeholdersObjectives Imagine and commit to realizing a different futurewww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 95. Impossible is a word to be found only in the dictionary of fools. Napoleon Bonapartewww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 96. Selecting your 4th Option High Crazy ideasWinning movesImpact How far would this get me toward my goal? How long before the competition responds?Wastes of time TacticsLow DifficultEasy Can we do this quickly? Is this inexpensive? Do we have the capability?www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 97. Selecting your 4th Option High Crazy ideasWinning movesImpact How far would this get me toward my goal? How long before the competition responds?Wastes of time TacticsLow DifficultEasy Can we do this quickly? Is this inexpensive? Do we have the capability?www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 98. Make the impossible possible Each of these looked like show stoppersDont build handsetsRisk of no WiFiDavid Morken, CEO Bandwidth.comwww.kaihan.netMotorolaEarly adoptersCustomer Service too costlyNo one provides service 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 99. It's not that I'm so smart, it's just that I stay with problems longer.- Albert Einsteinwww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 100. ImagineDissectExpandAnalyzeSellChoose leverage points others overlookGenerate more potential strategiesChoose strategies competitors will not copyBuild buy-in for your strategyObjectives Imagine and commit to realizing a different future Mr. PracticalMr. ObviousMr. Expertwww.kaihan.netMr. What WorksMr. Cog 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 101. Personal Examplewww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 102. www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 103. www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 104. www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 105. Ray Kroc www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 106. Mohammad Yunuswww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 107. www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 108. Ratan Tatawww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 109. Thomas Edison www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 110. Betsy Johnson www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 111. kaihan@outthinker.com www.outthinker.com @kaihan Register for newsletter, tools, videos Work out your Fourth Option Email me to get presentation Contact us at Outthinker for more support www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 112. Impossible is a word to be found only in the dictionary of fools. Napoleon Bonapartewww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 113. Selecting your 4th Option High Crazy ideasWinning movesImpact How far would this get me toward my goal? How long before the competition responds?Wastes of time TacticsLow DifficultEasy Can we do this quickly? Is this inexpensive? Do we have the capability?www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 114. Make the impossible possible Each of these looked like show stoppersDont build handsetsRisk of no WiFiDavid Morken, CEO Bandwidth.comwww.kaihan.netMotorolaEarly adoptersCustomer Service too costlyNo one provides service 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 115. It's not that I'm so smart, it's just that I stay with problems longer.- Albert Einsteinwww.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 116. Session goals1.Find a Fourth Option for your business/ career 2.Learn a process and set of tools 3.Feel confident in your ability to apply these going forward www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff 117. kaihan@outthinker.com www.outthinker.com @kaihan Register for newsletter, tools, videos Work out your Fourth Option Email me to get presentation Contact us at Outthinker for more support www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff