ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY ISSUES IN THE ARCTIC OCEANENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY ISSUES IN THE ARCTIC OCEAN

Paul Arthur BerkmanPaul Arthur BerkmanArctic Ocean Geopolitics ProgrammeArctic Ocean Geopolitics Programme

Scott Polar Research Institute, University of CambridgeScott Polar Research Institute, University of Cambridge

These risks are characterized in terms of political, economic and cultural instabilities that are herein defined as events or operations requiring governments to allocate resources in an unplanned manner or at the expense of previously prioritized activities. These resources could be financial, diplomatic or intellectual capital as well as tangible assets that are relevant to the security and welfare of the governments and the human populations that they represent.

Environmental security is defined herein as an integrated approach for assessing and responding to the risks as well as the opportunities generated by an environmental state-change.

Environmental SecurityEnvironmental Security

RUSSIARUSSIA

DENMARKDENMARK

CANADACANADA

USAUSA

NORWAYNORWAY

ICELANDICELAND

Arctic Arctic CircleCircle66.566.5ooNN

The Arctic Ocean SystemThe Arctic Ocean System

SWEDENSWEDENFINLANDFINLAND

INDIGENOUS INDIGENOUS PEOPLESPEOPLES

North AtlanticNorth Atlantic

North PacificNorth Pacific

Environmental State-ChangeEnvironmental State-Change

Permanent Sea-Ice Cap Seasonally Ice-Free Sea

RELATIVE RATES OF RELATIVE RATES OF SEA-ICE CHANGESEA-ICE CHANGE

Thickness > ExtentThickness > Extent

International, Interdisciplinary and Inclusive

OIL AND GAS ESTIMATESOIL AND GAS ESTIMATES

1974 – Unites States Geological Survey1974 – Unites States Geological Survey“…45 billion barrels of oil and 115 trillion cubic feet of natural gas” in the Antarctic

Geological Survey Circular 705 (USGS, Reston)

2009 - United States Geological Survey2009 - United States Geological Survey“…the Arctic may contain about 30% of the world’s undiscovered gas and 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil… about 618 BBO [billion barrels of oil] … with a high probability (>95%chance) that more than 770 TCF [trillion cubic feet] of gas occurs north of the Arctic Circle.”

Science 324:1175-1179

Political, Economic and Cultural InstabilitiesPolitical, Economic and Cultural Instabilities

“…important rights and obligations…”

Nation State International SpaceNation State International Space

United Nations Convention on the Law of the SeaUnited Nations Convention on the Law of the SeaSigned: Montego Bay, Jamaica, 10 December 1982Signed: Montego Bay, Jamaica, 10 December 1982

Entered into Force: 16 November 1994Entered into Force: 16 November 1994Ratification, Accession or Succession: 155+ NationsRatification, Accession or Succession: 155+ Nations

Nation State International SpaceNation State International Space

United Nations Convention on the Law of the SeaUnited Nations Convention on the Law of the SeaSigned: Montego Bay, Jamaica, 10 December 1982Signed: Montego Bay, Jamaica, 10 December 1982

Entered into Force: 16 November 1994Entered into Force: 16 November 1994Ratification, Accession or Succession: 155+ NationsRatification, Accession or Succession: 155+ Nations

Water ColumnWater Column

Common InterestsCommon Interests

ARCTIC OCEANARCTIC OCEAN

BALANCEBALANCE

Berkman and Young 2009. Science 324:339-340.

Promoting Cooperation and Preventing ConflictPromoting Cooperation and Preventing Conflict

Sea Floor Sea Floor

National InterestsNational Interests

Surface-Vessel / Sea-Ice Relationships

0

50

100

150

200

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Month

Nu

mb

er o

f V

esse

ls

6 [60°W-0°]

5 [120°-60°W]

4 [180°-120°W]

3 [120°E-180°]

2 [60°-120°E]

1 [0°-60°E]

234

56 1

Arctic Marine Shipping

Assessment

•Comparable data over time and space to interpret trends

•Acquired and distributed over time-spaces scales for operational decisions

Arctic Ocean Remote-Sensing Experiment

CONSTELLATION PERIOD SENSORS

CONFIGURATIONEuropean, Russian,

United States, China, Canadian, Japan, Other

MarchSeptember

Surface- Vessel Reflection, Automatic Identification

System, Sea- Ice Parameters, Ocean-

Atmosphere Coupling, Other

ASSSESSMENTInternational Networking, Costs, Communications Seasonality Functionality, Processing

CHALLENGEReal-Time, Synoptic, Full-Basin Coverage for Operational and

Scientific Interpretations