ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN

MARCH 12, 2015

JAY GANDHI, DIRECTOR OF ADMINISTRATIVE AND INFORMATION MANAGEMENT SERVICES

JON DAVIDSON, DIRECTOR OF UNDERGRADUATE ADMISSIONS

BRAD MAKI, DIRECTOR OF GRADUATE ADMISSIONS

VAHID LOTFI, SENIOR VICE PROVOST

LORI VEDDER, DIRECTOR OF FINANCIAL AID

DEB WHITE, DIRECTOR OF EXTENDED LEARNING

MICHIGAN ENROLLMENT TRENDS

Fall 2009 Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013% Annual Total Enrollment Change 1.94% 1.17% 0.60% -0.47% -0.46%% Annual UM-Flint Enrollment Change 7.07% 4.70% 1.52% 0.33% 3.21%Total Enrollment 298,240 301,734 303,554 302,129 300,730UM-Flint Enrollment 7,773 8,138 8,262 8,289 8,555

UM-FLINT TEN-YEAR TREND

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 -

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

6,422 6,527 6,883

7,260 7,773

8,138 8,262 8,289 8,555 8,574

5,670 5,600 5,824 6,155

6,581 6,874 6,959 6,984 7,143 7,078

752 927 1,059 1,105 1,192 1,264 1,303 1,305 1,412 1,496

Overall Undergrad Graduate33.5 % increase since 2005

UNDERGRADUATE ENROLLMENT TRENDS

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 -

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

5,670 5,600 5,824 6,155

6,581 6,874 6,959 6,984 7,143 7,078

24.8% increase since 2005

DECREASING PRODUCTION OF HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES NATIONWIDE

• Michigan among most affected nationwide

• Anticipated contraction of 20% by 2020 in Michigan

Source: WICHE Knocking at the College Door

•

DECREASING PRODUCTION OF HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES - MICHIGAN

Source: WICHE Knocking at the College Door, Michigan projections

DECREASING PRODUCTION OF HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES – GENESEE COUNTY

10.6% drop 2010 – 201425.3% drop 2010 – 2020

DECLINE IN COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENROLLMENT

• 17.7% drop overall• 26.5% drop Mott CC

• Transfer students make up 66% of new undergraduates each year• Approximately 45% of transfer students come from Mott Community College

POPULATION SHIFTS

2010 Population

2013 Population Estimate

Change 2010 to 2013

% 18 years or younger

12th grade change 2010-2014

12th grade change 2014-2020 (est.)

Total UG students Fall 14

% resident undergra

Genesee 425,790 415,376 -2.5% 23.7% -10.6% -16.5% 3,686 56.3%Lapeer 88,319 88,389 0.1% 22.5% -4.2% -13.1% 498 7.6%Oakland 1,205,508 1,231,640 2.1% 22.5% -2.3% -9.4% 462 7.1%Livingston 180,967 184,443 1.9% 23.7% 8.5% -13.2% 350 5.3%Wayne 9,883,640 9,898,193 0.1% 24.3% -9.6% -13.6% 247 3.8%Shiawassee 70,648 68,900 -2.5% 22.6% -7.5% -8.8% 168 2.6%Macomb 840,978 854,769 1.6% 22.1% -9.4% -1.9% 166 2.5%St. Clair 163,040 160,469 -1.6% 22.3% -1.0% -15.6% 149 2.3%Ingham 280,891 282,234 0.5% 20.4% -4.0% -3.3% 141 2.2%Saginaw 200,169 196,542 -1.8% 22.2% -15.6% -9.3% 108 1.7%Michigan 9,883,640 9,898,193 0.1% 22.7%USA 308,745,538 316,497,531 2.4% 23.3%

Sources: U.S. Census, Michigan CEPI Counts

UM-FLINT GRADUATE ENROLLMENT

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 -

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

752

927

1,059 1,105

1,192 1,264 1,303 1,305

1,412 1,496

99% increase in headcount since 2005!

POPULATION SHIFTS

2010 Population

2013 Population Estimate

Change 2010 to 2013

% 25+ w/Bach. Degree

Total GR students Fall 14

% resident GR

Genesee 425,790 415,376 -2.50% 18.9% 384 33.0%

Oakland 1,205,508 1,231,640 2.10% 43.1% 173 14.9%

Wayne 9,883,640 9,898,193 0.10% 21.3% 58 5.0%

Washtenaw 344,791 354,240 2.70% 51.3% 55 4.7%

Saginaw 200,169 196,542 -1.80% 19.1% 49 4.2%

Livingston 180,967 184,443 1.90% 32.9% 45 3.9%

Kent 602,622 621,700 3.10% 31.7% 42 3.6%

Macomb 840,978 854,769 1.60% 22.5% 41 3.5%

Lapeer 88,319 88,389 0.10% 17.0% 39 3.4%

Ingham 280,891 282,234 0.50% 36.5% 27 2.3%

Michigan 9,883,640 9,898,193 0.10% 25.9%  USA 308,745,538 316,497,531 2.40% 28.8%

Sources: U.S. Census, Michigan CEPI Counts

GRADUATE ENROLLMENT

GRADUATE ENROLLMENT

DEMAND FOR GRADUATE EDUCATION• Ongoing growth in master’s and doctoral degree program enrollment

through 2019 (Institute of Education Sciences National Center for Educational Statistics)

• In Michigan, highest number of master’s degrees completed in:

• Education

• Business, Management, Marketing, and related support services

• Health Professions and related Clinical Sciences

• Engineering

• Public Administration and Social Services (including Social Work)

• Computer and Information Sciences and support services

• Psychology

INTERNATIONAL ENROLLMENT

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 -

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

54 62

125 160 167

209

254

348

543

663

INTERNATIONAL ENROLLMENTCOUNTRIES OF ORIGIN FALL 2014

1. Saudi Arabia

2. India

3. China

4. South Korea

5. Nigeria

INTERNATIONAL STANDING AND DEMAND

• United States is the top destination for international students

• State of Michigan ranks 9th for number of International students

INTERNATIONAL STANDING AND DEMAND

• Growth fueled by China, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam

• Emerging markets in Oman, Iraq, Kuwait, Iran, and Brazil due to government scholarship programs

AFFORDABILITY AND STATE FUNDING

“Michigan is seeing very moderate increases in State Appropriations from FY 11-12 to FY 14-15.”Source: President’s Council State Universities of Michigan

“Michigan has seen 5th largest decline in state funding from 2009-14…Today, state funding covers about 22 percent of the cost of an education (vs. 70 percent in 1985)” Source: President’s Council State Universities of Michigan

2005-2010

AFFORDABILITY AND STATE FUNDINGThe latest reduction in appropriations occurred in 2012-13 when a 15% cut across-the-board was assessed to the public universities in Michigan. To date these funds have not been fully restored, as tuition and fees become the driving source of general fund revenue.

Boulus, Michael A. Michigan’s Public Universities Moving Michigan into the Knowledge Economy, February 12, 2013.

AFFORDABILITY AND STATE FUNDING CONT.

As state disinvestment continues, an article by the Young Invincibles (YI) demonstrates how states fair using a scoring system that takes into account the relationship between state budgets and college affordability.

ONLINE LEARNING TRENDING AS A STRATEGY

• 70.8% of chief academic leaders say online learning is critical to long-term strategy.

• Online enrollments have increased at rates far in excess of those of overall higher education.

IPEDS: 73.7% of the 1.2% overall student enrollment growth was distance students

(2013)

• Decreasing online growth rates since 2009

ONLINE LEARNING TRENDING AS A STRATEGY

Public 4-year: 7.2% growth 2012 to 2013

UM-FLINT: STUDENTS TAKINGONLINE COURSES ONLY

Fall 2007 Fall 2008 Fall 2009 Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013 Fall 20140

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

415

522 502

610690

857

9761,006

38 54 80 106186

235291

338

UndergraduateGraduate

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Undergrad 6.72% 8.01% 7.21% 8.87% 9.92% 12.27% 13.66% 14.21%

Graduate 3.4% 4.43% 6.38% 8.39%

14.27% 18.01% 20.61% 22.59%

UM-FLINT ONLINE COURSE ENROLLMENT GROWTH RATES

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

9.53%11.97%

13.48%11.95% 12.66%

8.49%11.66%

-0.85%

Annual Online Enrollment Growth

Year

-to-Y

ear G

row

th R

ate

SEM DATA TEAMRoy Barnes, Associate Dean, College of Arts and SciencesJay Gandhi, Director of Administrative and Information Management ServicesDan Adams, Director of International CenterKaren Arnould, RegistrarJon Davidson, Director of Undergraduate AdmissionsBrad Maki, Director of Graduate AdmissionsAimi Moss, Director of Student Success CenterFawn Skarsten, Director of Institutional AnalysisLori Vedder, Director of Financial AidDeb White, Director of Extended Learning