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Environment CanadaMeteorological Service of Canada
Environnement CanadaService Météorologique du Canada
1
Progress in Forecasting and Product Generation
Friends/Partners in Aviation WeatherLas Vegas, NevadaOctober 13, 2004
Joanne Lancaster – Meteorological Service of Canada
Environment CanadaMeteorological Service of Canada
Environnement CanadaService Météorologique du Canada
2
• The Meteorological Service of Canada• Services to NAV CANADA• Other aviation initiatives
• What are we doing in Canada?• Forecast Production• Other Initiatives
• Future Work
Presentation Outline
Environment CanadaMeteorological Service of Canada
Environnement CanadaService Météorologique du Canada
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• The MSC is part of the Government of Canada (Department of Environment)
• MSC Funding:• From parliament (A-base component)• Cost Recovered Services
• Services to NAV CANADA are fully cost recovered• The MSC produces most of the aviation weather forecasts
(annual value $9.3 million) through a full cost recovery product and service contract with NAV CANADA (annual value $20.2 million).
The Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC)
Environment CanadaMeteorological Service of Canada
Environnement CanadaService Météorologique du Canada
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Forecast Production Services to NAV CANADA
CMAC-East
•CCFP
•North Atlantic Turbulence
•TAFS
•GFA
CMAC-West
•Canadian Turbulence Forecast
•TAFS
•GFA
Canadian Meteorological Centre
•Supercomputer
•VAAC
•ASEP
•AWWS
•R&D
2 Canadian Meteorological Aviation Centres - CMACs
Environment CanadaMeteorological Service of Canada
Environnement CanadaService Météorologique du Canada
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Other Services to NAV CANADA
Aviation Weather Observation Services
•maintenance, inspection, collection, processing, distribution, performance monitoring
Performance Measurement (TAFs)
Radar, Satellite, Lightning
Telecommunications
Aviation Weather Web Site (AWWS)
Environment CanadaMeteorological Service of Canada
Environnement CanadaService Météorologique du Canada
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Other Aviation Related Initiatives
Not all aviation related initiatives are cost recovered, i.e. the MSC is supporting some aviation related initiatives via A-base funding, where it is consistent with the MSC mandate to do so.
•AMDAR - data link weather information from aircraft in flight
•Aircraft Icing Research Study (AIRS II)
•Aerodrome forecast performance metrics to support more fuel
efficient flight operations, thereby reducing green house gas emissions
Environment CanadaMeteorological Service of Canada
Environnement CanadaService Météorologique du Canada
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Forecast Production
Automated Supplementary En-route weather Prediction (ASEP)
• Automated (model output) graphic forecasts of turbulence, winds and temperatures en-route, cloud, icing, isobaric pattern
• Developed and maintained by the MSC Canadian Meteorological Centre for NAV CANADA
• Currently staged for training of NAV CANADA FSS
• Accessible via the Aviation Weather Web Site (AWWS) and to NAV CANADA Flight Information Centres (FICs) via dedicated relay
Environment CanadaMeteorological Service of Canada
Environnement CanadaService Météorologique du Canada
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Forecast ProductionCollaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP)
Supporting efficient cross-
border routing of aircraft.
Approximately 80 aircraft
on CAN-1 on this day
Canadian portion – produced by the CMAC-East in Montreal
Environment CanadaMeteorological Service of Canada
Environnement CanadaService Météorologique du Canada
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Forecast Production
Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS)
•Yellow=Canadian radars
•Red= Addl. NEXRADs to be added to CIWS network in 2004
•Green= “CAN” playbook routes 1, 5 and 7
Data from 5 MSC RADAR covers the Canadian (off-load) Routes
Environment CanadaMeteorological Service of Canada
Environnement CanadaService Météorologique du Canada
10
Aerodrome Forecast Quality/Reliability Improvement
• TAF Quality/Reliability• Current measured metrics say we’re not getting better; measures are
not easy to understand or interpret; no one really uses them
• Measure what matters to the end-users; what affects the airlines decision making process
• Feedback to operations; so forecasters understand how their forecast impact decision making process
• Current MSC, NC initiative with funding from Program for Energy Reduction and Development
• Engaging the end-users in the process; providing in-kind support
• Focusing on the issue at an upcoming aviation workshop
• Funding R&D (statistical methods, fuzzy logic) with goal to improve quality
Forecast Production
Environment CanadaMeteorological Service of Canada
Environnement CanadaService Météorologique du Canada
11
Development of an Aviation Lab within the MSC
• Support the responsibilities of several government departments, particularly Transport and National Defense who have mandated responsibilities for aviation meteorology
• Demonstrate a commitment to the future of the MSC aviation forecasting offices and personnel, and ensure that the MSC remains a world-class aviation weather service provider
• Collaborate with other national and international R&D efforts in aviation meteorology and with other severe weather R&D programs
• Provide an appropriate venue for the testing and development of aviation forecasting tools and to facilitate technology transfer/linkage back to operations
Other Initiatives
Environment CanadaMeteorological Service of Canada
Environnement CanadaService Météorologique du Canada
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Future Work?Focus on coordinated efforts where it makes sense to do so
Continue to focus on x-border commonality and integration of products
Broaden our understanding of how Canadian forecasts impact end-users
Work with end users to provide them with the right information to support their decision making processes
Environment CanadaMeteorological Service of Canada
Environnement CanadaService Météorologique du Canada
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Merci Beaucoup * Thank You!Merci Beaucoup * Thank You!
Contact Information:Contact Information:Joanne LancasterJoanne Lancaster
Chief, Client ServicesChief, Client Services
(613) 995-4976(613) 995-4976
[email protected]@ec.gc.ca
Environment CanadaMeteorological Service of Canada
Environnement CanadaService Météorologique du Canada
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MSC’s Canadian Meteorological Aviation Centre - West (Edmonton)