Environment Canada context: Climate and Air Quality

M. Shepherd, Climate Research DivisionScience & Technology BranchNovember 18, 2013

Context

• Climate Adaptation Climate impact studies Climate services – targeted information to address adaptation

challenge and reduce vulnerabilities

• Climate Mitigation• Estimating climate response to individual forcers

• Clean Air Regulatory Agenda (CARA) CACs and AQ / Weather feedbacks

• The Northern Strategy • Advance our understanding AQ and climate response in the Arctic

due to climate change, resource development, and marine traffic

• Build supporting science through integrated atmospheric research program, leveraging collaborations > NSERC CCAR NETCARE

The obligations to do this work

• UNFCCC Articles 4 and 5: monitoring and research

• CEPA: GHGs, Smog precursors identified as toxic substances under Schedule 1

• Clean Air Agenda: Adaptation and CARA Renewal (2008 - 2016)

Through Canada’s membership to the:– World Meteorological Organization (WMO), – Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of the United Nations

Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), – United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the – International Council for Science (ICSU).

▪ Global Climate Observing System: (GCOS)▪ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)▪ World Climate Research Program (WCRP)▪ International Global Atmosphere Chemistry Program (IGAC)

– Arctic Council – mitigation of SLCFs– UN ECE LRTAP Gothenburg Protocol – short lived climate pollutants

Why did EC support an aerosols focussed project?

Climate projections continue to be challenged by uncertainties related to the role of aerosols (AR4, AR5).

– Requires better processes understanding– Based on better / more observations

AQ management needs improved source characterization (type, transport) and response to climate change.

Demands a very intentional linkage between the observations and processes research with the model development

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CO2 (ppm)

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Global Mean Precipitation (mm/day)

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RCP 8.5RCP 8.5RCP 4.5RCP 4.5RCP 2.6RCP 2.6HistoricalHistoricalControlControl

RCP 8.5RCP 8.5RCP 4.5RCP 4.5RCP 2.6RCP 2.6HistoricalHistoricalControlControl

Thin lines represent the 5 ensemble members Thick line represents ensemble-average

a) b)

c)

V. K. Arora et al. 2011 Carbon emission limits required to satisfy future representative concentration pathways of greenhouse gases. GRL doi:10.1029/2010GL046270

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Alert, NUCandle Lake, SKSable Island, NSEast Trout Lake, SKLac Labiche, ABEstevan, BCEgbert, ON

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Con

cent

ratio

n (p

pm)

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CO2 (ppm)

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Global Mean Screen Temperature (C)

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Global Mean Precipitation (mm/day)

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RCP 8.5RCP 8.5RCP 4.5RCP 4.5RCP 2.6RCP 2.6HistoricalHistoricalControlControl

RCP 8.5RCP 8.5RCP 4.5RCP 4.5RCP 2.6RCP 2.6HistoricalHistoricalControlControl

Thin lines represent the 5 ensemble members Thick line represents ensemble-average

a) b)

c)

To reach ~2o warming target, global CO2 emissions must level off immediately, and decline to negative values before end of century (i.e. net CO2 extraction from atmosphere);

Surface air temperature change (relative to 1986-2005 average) from CanRCM4 (44 km resolution, RCP4.5)

C

Surface air temperature change (relative to 1986-2005 average) from CanRCM4 (44 km resolution, RCP4.5)

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2050 2090

C

Gillett et al, 2011

Detection and Attribution – separating the response to various forcings

The collaborative approach to address specific program needs in EC• To reap the benefit of the collaboration, and integrate the research results of

NETCARE in EC programs and tools, EC contributes scientists, technicians, instruments and sites for observations and field campaigns (surface, ice breaker and airborne), data interpretation, and model development and evaluation.

• Rely on the academic community for scientific and technical contributions to the field work, atmospheric processes research and model development.

• Building on international collaborations and previous field campaigns (PAMARCMIP)

• To address key uncertainties in the prediction of aerosol effects on climate by using a variety of observational and modeling approaches, and;

• To use that increased knowledge to improve the accuracy of Canadian climate and earth system model predictions.

• Aerosol processes: ice nucleation, deposition• Improved emissions characterization for ships and natural marine sources• Transport and source region characterization• CanESM and GEM-MACH• Long term monitoring activities

Science Innovation

Model & Method Development

Model & Method Application

User Accessible Climate Information & Data

• CanESM, CanRCM, CanSIPs

• Climate Trends, Variability & Extremes characterization

• Water Availability & Infrastructure Climate indices

• Snow and Sea Ice characterization

• GHG and Aerosols Baseline Monitoring

• Observations based GHG source estimates + trends

• Global and Regional Scale Climate Scenarios

• Adjusted Homogenized Climate Data Records and Climate Indices

• Snow Water Equivalent maps

• GHG and Aerosols Observations

• Annual GHG Source / Sink Estimates

EC Climate Research Innovation Chain forAdaptation & Mitigation Decision Making

User s

• NMHS’s• Regional Climate

Consortia• Academic

Institutions• Federal &

Provincial Sector Based Ministries

• National Sector Associations

• Private Sector

• Global and Regional Model Testing & Evaluation

• Evaluating Statistical Methods for Climate Analysis

• Inversion and Assimilation Methods for Source Characterization

• Instrumentation

• Atmosphere – Surface Processes Parameterization

• Atmospheric Chemistry Parameterization

• Atmosphere, Ocean, Cryosphere, Terrestrial Model Development

• Statistical Methods Development for Climate Variables

• Analytical / Instrument Testing for GHG and aerosol monitoring

Conceptual model July 8, 2013

NSERC CCAR Projects

CMIP6

CanAM4AGCM:

OGCM:

OzoneChem:

RCM:

Carbon:

AGCM3

CM

AM

4

CanAM4

CanOM4COUPLER4

CanCM4

CanAM4

OGCM4 CMOCCTEM4COUPLER4

CanESM4

CanESM4(CanESM2)

CMAM

GEM3-LAM+ CanAM4

CanRCM4

CanAM4

CM

AM

4.X

CMIP5

CanESM5

CanAM4.X

CanOM4.XCOUPLER4.X

NEMO3.4

CanAM4.XCanAM4

+ new DYN

CanAM4.X

OGCM4

COUPLER4.X CTEM4.XCMOC NEMO3.4

CMOC4.X

GEM4-LAM+ canAM4

COUPLER4.X

COUPLER4.X

AGCM5

OGCM5 CMOC5

CTEM5COUPLER5

CM

AM

5

(NEMOx)

CanAM5

CanAM4.X

CanOM5 (NEMOx)

COUPLER5

CanAM4.X

OGCM5COUPLER5 CTEM5

CMOC5

CanAM5

CM

AM

5

GEM4-LAM+ CanAM4.X

GEM4-LAM

+ CanAM5

CanRCM5

(04/2012) (10/2013) (04/2015)

Preparing now for contributions to IPCC 6th Assessment …

CanESM4

AGCM4

OGCM4CTEMCMOC

CanRCM4

AGCM4

Ch

em

CMAM

Strat/Meso

AGCM3

CanCM3

AGCM3

OGCM3COUPLER

AGCM4

OGCM4COUPLER

CanCM4CanSIPS

ACCMIP

CCMVal-1

CCMVal-2

CORDEX

CMIP5

GEOMIP

MJO-DPIP

CMAM30

CCMI

SHFP

CHFP

GLASE-2

CMIP5

IceHFP

Current Model Suite

Unification

CMIP6 Model Suite

– strat/trop chemistry– carbon cycle

Development

– AGCM dynamical core

– ocean model (NEMO)

– AGCM physics(eg aerosols, clouds)

– land surface

– ocean/land biogeo- chemical physics

– sea ice

CanESM5

AGCM5

OGCM5

CM

AM

CMOC5

CTEM5COUPLER

CanRCM5

CM

AM

CTEM5

AGCM5

CanCM3

AGCM3

OGCM3COUPLER

AGCM4

OGCM4COUPLER

CanCM4

CanSIPSCanCM5

AGCM5

OGCM5COUPLER CTEM5

CMOC5

CM

AM

Climate Model Development

Physical Properties Chemical Composition (direct measurements)

LightAbsorption derived BC

Light Scattering

Optical Depth Particle #Size Distribution

InorganicSpeciation

EC/OCConc.

(thermal evolution

technique)

EC/OC13C isotopes

(thermal evolution

technique & IRMS)

1 + 10 µm  Calculated from Brewerand NOAA  AOD

 Optical Particle Counter (coarse)  Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer (SMPS)  Condensation Particle Counter (CPC) Single Particle Soot Photometer (SP2)  Optical Particle counter (coarse)

 3-w PSAP  Aethalometer7-w  870 nm PAX*2012

1-w Nephelometer     870 nm PAX*2012

Hi-vol paper filter W14  Open filter, no size cut*7-day int sample <1 µm Teflon filter Aerosol Chemical Speciation Monitor (ACSM)

Quartz filter 14-day integrated TSP 7-day integrated <1 µm

Aerosol MonitoringMultiple objectives and network optimization to support atmospheric process studies, model evaluation, estimation of source trends / impacts, and evaluation mitigation implementation

Specific policy interests, where scientific uncertainties are related to aerosols

• Complementing CO2 mitigation with Short Lived Climate Forcer reductions (methane, black carbon and ozone).

• Geo-engineering – solar radiation management• Seasonal to inter-annual to decadal forecasts• Regional to smaller scale climate scenarios, polar regions• AQ and Weather / Climate feedbacks• Role of open ocean / sea ice• Intercontinental transport to Arctic and Western Canada

EC contributions Technical support for instrument integration with the POLAR 6

prior to each of the studies in 2014 and 2015 .

Technical support for integration of instruments with M300 data acquisition system prior to each study in 2014 and 2015.

In-field technical and analytical support at Resolute summer 2014.

Field site access (Uccelet, Alert, Eureka, Whistler , Resolute…), fuel and campaign logistics

Scientific personnel for campaign coordination, data analyses, model development by the EC scientific investigators

AGCM5

OGCM5

CM

AM

CMOC5

CTEM5COUPLER

AGCM5

OGCM5

COUPLER CTEM5

CMOC5

CM

AM

CanESM5

CanRCM5

CanSIPSCanCM5

CM

AM

CTEM5

AGCM5

SMOKERegional DataCanada & US

GEMMeteorology Transport

Chemistry Interface

Global Emissions

Emission Interface

Gas PhaseChemistry

Aerosol Module

Equilibrium Scheme

CABMNETCARE

EC Tools and Programs

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CO2 (ppm)

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Global Mean Screen Temperature (C)

1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000 2030 2060 209013

14

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Year

1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000 2030 2060 2090

2.7

2.75

2.8

2.85

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2.95

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3.05

Year

Global Mean Precipitation (mm/day)

1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000 2030 2060 2090

2.7

2.75

2.8

2.85

2.9

2.95

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3.05

Year

RCP 8.5RCP 8.5RCP 4.5RCP 4.5RCP 2.6RCP 2.6HistoricalHistoricalControlControl

RCP 8.5RCP 8.5RCP 4.5RCP 4.5RCP 2.6RCP 2.6HistoricalHistoricalControlControl

Thin lines represent the 5 ensemble members Thick line represents ensemble-average

a) b)

c)

BLUE: CO2 ~ 420 ppm in 2100GREEN: CO2 ~ 540 ppm by 2100

To reach ~2o warming target, global CO2 emissions must peak immediately and decline to negative values before end of century blue RCP 2.6 (i.e. net CO2 extraction from atmosphere); or to reach ~3ºC target, global emissions must level off immediately green RCP 4.5.

2ºC average global warming target

Pre-industrial era