Enthralled by the immediate hicss comple xity symposium - v4.0 - 5jan2016

Hawaii International Conference on Systems ScienceCompleXity Symposium - 5 January 2016

Mark Dixon – Executive Architect – Smarter Cities Solutions - IBM [email protected] / [email protected]

Enthralled by the ImmediateWhy humans have not adopted Smarter Cities technologies faster

A Biological Perspective

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Disclaimer

The ideas and assertions presented herein are mine and mine alone. They should not be construed to be the opinions of the organization by whom I am employed.

I have attempted, in good faith, to perform due diligence in “fact-checking” all relevant information provided in this presentation.

That said, please remember:

You are entitled to your own opinions and/or beliefs.... ...but not your own facts.

Admonish: To urge (someone) to do something; an opinion suggesting a wise or proper course of action; the act of telling beforehand of danger or risk.

- Merriam Webster Dictionary and Thesaurus

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Themes

“Every great architect is -- necessarily -- a great poet. He must be a great original interpreter of his time, his day, his age.”

“The architect must be a prophet . . . if he can't see at least ten years ahead, then don’t call him an architect.”

– Frank Lloyd Wright

“The interest of the man must be connected with the constitutional rights of the place...But what is government itself, but the greatest of all reflection on

human nature? If men were angels, no government would be necessary.

– James Madison

“Humanity is a biological species in a biological world...we are exquisitely well adapted to live on this particular planet. Although exalted in many ways, we remain an animal species of the global fauna.”

– Edward O. Wilson

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Agenda

● Historical Perspectives

● 21st Century Challenges

● Governance SitRep

● Enthralled by the Immediate

● Going Forward...

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Historical Perspectives

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

» - George Santayana

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Historical Perspectives... 50 years of Science Fiction

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Historical Perspectives More recent and esoteric works...

3d-printers – replication

2000

First description of cyberspace

2003

Virtual collaboration and avatars

1991

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Historical Perspectives Machine Intelligence...

50 / 70 years ago... 4 years ago...

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Historical Perspectives Personal Communication Devices

87 years ago... 3 year ago...50 years ago...

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Historical PerspectivesRecycling

Recycling wastewater

”...communities across the state, including Sonoma Valley, are turning rivers of raw sewage

into clean water...[its] certified organic”

Circa 1973... Circa 2011...

SONOMASONOMA

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Historical PerspectivesDisease Vectors

50 years ago... 6 years ago...

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Historical PerspectivesObesity

1990 2000 2010

http://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/adult.html

A Sofalarity, not a Singularity...

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Historical Perspectives Popular Culture: Dystopian views...more prevalent?

“The Lottery”by Shirley Jackson - 1948

“The Most Dangerous Game”

by Richard Connell - 1924

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Historical PerspectivesThe Ancient Greek Perspective...

“Those who cannot remember [understand] the past are condemned to repeat it.”

» - George Santayana

1974

Our Past is laid out before us...

...and our Future is rushing up from behind.

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Historical Perspectives A view from Harvard and MIT

“We have created a Star Wars civilization, with Stone Age emotions, medieval institutions, and god-like technology...We are terribly confused by the mere fact of our existence, and a danger to ourselves and to the rest of life.”

•» – Edward O. Wilson

“...it appears that much of the preparation nature has invested in us...is failing us. Our neuroanatomy is tuned to respond to

sudden, dramatic changes in our environment...We focus on immediate needs and problems, and are trapped by the illusion that what is most tangible is most real. We’ve been conditioned for thousands of years to identify with our family, our tribe, and

our local social structures. A future that asks us to overcome this conditioning and identify with all of humankind looks alien

indeed."

» – Peter M. Senge

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Historical PerspectivesNum...me vexo?

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Agenda






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21st Century ChallengesContext is key...Pop Quiz!

“ 'What the hell is a millisecond?'...Light in a vacuum travels at 186 miles a millisecond...Physics is physics”.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/06/magazine/flash-boys-michael-lewis.html

How long did it take George Washington to find out he had been elected POTUS?

Now

8seconds

Then

8days

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21st Century ChallengesHuman population growth: AD 0 to 2050

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/numb-nf.html

AD 0: 300 million

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AD 1000: 310 million

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AD 1800: 1 billion

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AD 1927: 2 billion

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AD 1960: 3 billion

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AD 1974: 4 billion

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AD 1987: 5 billion

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AD 1999 : 6 billion

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AD 2050 : 9 billion

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21st Century Challenges Human Migration Timeline

Image source: http://www.utexas.edu/features/2007/ancestry/graphics/ancestry5_medium.jpg

Pre-Humans – 2,000,000 years agoArchaic Humans – 500,000 years ago

200,000 yrs ago 100,000 yrs ago Present

Anatomically ModernHumans

Behaviorally ModernHumans

50,000 yrs ago

Settlements

Agriculture

Cities

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21st Century ChallengesHomo Sapiens Sapiens: The ultimate invasive species?

"I think computer viruses should count as life. I think it says something about human nature that the only form of life we have created so far is purely destructive. We've created life in our own image."

- Stephen Hawking

Man is the most insane species. We worship an invisible God and slaughter a visible Nature without realizing that this Nature is the invisible God we worship.

- HubertReeves

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21st Century ChallengesHuman population and the Keeling Curve (ppm CO

2)

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/7990

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21st Century Challengesppm CO

2 : 800,000 year history

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/7990

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21st Century ChallengesThe roots of Climate Change Science are almost 200 years old

Joseph Fourier(heat analytics)

Circa early-1800s

John Tyndall(infrared radiation/air)

Circa mid-1800s

Svante Arrhenius (greenhouse effect)

Circa late-1800s

this is cutting-edge 19th century science that we’re now refining.”

“...this is cutting-edge 19th century science that we’re now refining.”- Rear Admiral David W. Titley (Ret.)

Former Oceanographer and Navigator of the US Navy

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21st Century ChallengesClimate Change

"Climate Impact of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide" J. Hansen, D. Johnson, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, P. Lee, D. Rind, and G. Russell, Science, vol. 213, 1981, pp. 957-966.

Geert Jan van Oldenborgh and Rein HaarsmaKoninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI) April 2012

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21st Century ChallengesLimits to Growth

1972

2002

2052

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21st Century ChallengesThink? Or believe?

http://environment.yale.edu/poe/v2014/

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21st Century ChallengesA few good people...

“You can't handle the truth!”

“Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful people can change the world. Indeed, it's the only thing that ever has...”

- Margaret Mead

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21st Century ChallengesSidebar: Science, Biomimicry and Philosophy

Physics Infrastructure

Chemistry

Biology

Platform

Software

ProcessLife

Digital Building BlocksNatural Building Blocks

Sapience Cognitive

InorganicPatterns

OrganicPatterns

BiologicalPatterns

SocialPatterns

MoQ Building Blocks

EthicalPatterns

Awareness/Nirvana/Bliss

http://www.moq.org/forum/mcwatt/anthony.html and http://www.quantonics.com/Anthony_McWatts_MoQ_Paper.html

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Agenda






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Enthralled by the ImmediateDilbert said it on the internet, so it must be true...

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/109880240641/sciences-biggest-fail

...I’m on the side that says climate change, for example, is pretty much what science says it is because the scientific consensus is high. But I

realize half of my fellow-citizens disagree, based on pattern recognition.”

“We humans operate on pattern recognition...

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Enthralled by the Immediate

“[The] Great Recession was something much more important. It was our wake-up heart attack.”

» – Thomas Friedman

“Never let a good crisis go to waste.” – Winston Churchill

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Enthralled by the Immediate”Its fractals, all the way down...”

Apologies to Ted Giesel and Benoit Mandelbrot...

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Enthralled by the ImmediateNeuroanatomical Architecture

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23036719 http://phenomena.nationalgeographic.com/2014/01/22/let-us-take-a-walk-in-the-brain-my-cover-story-for-national-geographic/

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Enthralled by the ImmediatePower Law Scaling in Human Brain Networks (Cities scale, too)

Broadband Criticality of Human Brain Network Synchronization - http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pcbi.1000314

Systems in a critical state are poised on the cusp of a transition between ordered and random behavior. At this point, they demonstrate complex patterning of fluctuations at all scales of space and time. Criticality is an attractive model for brain dynamics because it optimizes information transfer, storage capacity, and sensitivity to external stimuli in computational models.

We confirmed that both synchronization metrics demonstrated scale invariant behaviors in two computational models of critical dynamics as well as in human brain functional systems oscillating at low frequencies (,0.5 Hz, measured using functionalMRI) and at higher frequencies (1–125 Hz, measured using magnetoencephalography).

We conclude that human brain functional networks demonstrate critical dynamics in all frequency intervals, a phenomenon we have described as broadband criticality.

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Enthralled by the ImmediateNeuroanatomical architecture artifacts

Human Phobias - Irrational fears

Primitive Reflexes – your “lizard brain” at work

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_phobiashttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primitive_reflexes

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Enthralled by the ImmediateBiological Programming – Human Phobias

What is the #1 human phobia in the world?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_dangerous_snakes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_mamba https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inland_taipan

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https://www.livescience.com/13434-phobias-fears-acrophobia-heights-agoraphobia-arachnophobia.html

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https://en.wikipedia.org/"Cumulus Clouds over Yellow Prairie2" by Wing-Chi Poon. Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.5 via Commons -

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Cumulus_Clouds_over_Yellow_Prairie2.jpg#/media/File:Cumulus_Clouds_over_Yellow_Prairie2.jpg

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US THEM

https://www.livescience.com/13434-phobias-fears-acrophobia-heights-agoraphobia-arachnophobia.html

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fear_of_falling https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visual_cliff

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Do blank black screen next and kill all the lights...

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Enthralled by the ImmediateBiological Programming – Primitive Reflexes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moro_reflexhttps://www.nlm.nih.gov/medlineplus/ency/images/ency/fullsize/17269.jpg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_lAFst43TE

The Moro Reflex – birth to 3-6 months

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Palmar Grasp Reflex – 16 weeks (in utero) to 6 months

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primitive_reflexes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palmar_grasp_reflex

http://originsofmotherhood.com/images/Got_You_Daddy.jpg

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Hypnic Jerk Reflex – lifetime

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primitive_reflexes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypnic_jerk

http://www.knowledge.info/sites/default/files/images/1/hypnic-Jerk.jpg

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Pilomotor vestigal reflex (goose bumps) – lifetime

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primitive_reflexes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goose_bumps http://www.personal.psu.edu/afr3/blogs/SIOW/520905761_44867e4caa.jpg http://www.awf.org/sites/default/files/media/gallery/wildlife/Porcupine/Porcupine4.jpg

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Enthralled by the ImmediateBiological Programming – Dunbar's Number

Dunbar's number is a suggested cognitive limit to the number of people with whom one can maintain stable social relationships. These are relationships in which an individual knows who each person is and how each person relates to every other person. Numbers larger than this generally require more restrictive rules, laws, and enforced norms to maintain a stable, cohesive group.

● Species-specific index of social group size (mean neocortical volume)● Correlation from non-human primates to predict human group size● Human "mean group size" of 148 (regression equation)● Large error measure (a 95% confidence interval of 100 to 230)

● Hunter-gatherer groups● Small – bands – 30-50 people● Medium – groups – 100-200 people● Large – tribes – 500-2,500 people

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunbar's_number

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Enthralled by the ImmediateBiological Programming – Dunbar's Number – W.L. Gore

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W._L._Gore_and_Associates

● Gore is a team-based, flat lattice organization that fosters personal initiative. There are no traditional organizational charts, no chains of command, nor predetermined channels of communication.

● Gore is one of the 200 largest privately held U.S. companies● 2014 was the 3rd consecutive year for World’s Best Multinational Workplaces ● For the 18th consecutive year, Gore earned a position on the FORTUNE 100

Best Companies to Work For® list in 2015. Gore ranked 17th overall. ● Gore has also been named one of the best workplaces in France, Germany,

Italy, Korea, Sweden, and the UK. And in 2013, for the first time, Gore was named one of the best workplaces in China.

● More than 35 million innovative Gore Medical Devices have been implanted, saving and improving the quality of lives worldwide.

● Gore has been granted more than 2,000 patents worldwide in a wide range of fields

● Virtually all of Gore's products are based on just one material, a versatile polymer called ePTFE (expanded polytetrafluoroethylene)

● $3 billion in annual sales and more than 10,000 associates worldwide, the company is owned by members of the Gore family and associates. Gore prefers this private ownership and believes this reinforces a key element of its culture to “take a long term view” when assessing business situations.

10,000 associates / 50 locations = 200 per location

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Enthralled by the ImmediateBiological Programming – Top Ten Dream Themes

1. Being chased and attacked / Being in love or embraced

2. Getting injured or dying / Getting healed or reborn

3. Abandonment (car trouble) or social outcast

4. Destroyed, damaged or lost property or on(fire) / Property improvements 5. Poor performance / Outstanding performance

6. Falling or drowning / Flying or swimming

7. Being naked or inappropriately dressed / Looking great

8. Missing transportation / Happily traveling

9. Machine malfunctions / No malfunctions

10. Natural disasters / Natural beauty

http://psychcentral.com/blog/archives/2011/10/17/uncovering-your-dreams-12-universal-themeshttp://health.howstuffworks.com/mental-health/sleep/dreams/20-universal-dream-themes.htm

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Agenda






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Situation ReportThe Box...

If you're thinking outside the box, you're still in the box!

- Jon Fullinwider (Ex-CIO Los Angeles and San Diego Counties)

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Situation ReportBoxed In...

Historical trends return...The good ol' days will come back...

“Old Normal” “New Normal”

Government is challengedto redefine itself to becomemore efficient and cost effective

“We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used to create them...” – Einstein

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Situation ReportThe only Box we have...

Source: National Geographic Society – “State of the Earth: 2010”

There are now about

7 Billion people on

our planet...

“The future is already here… It is just not evenly distributed.” – Gibbons

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Situation ReportOur Inefficient Box...up to $15 Trillion wasted annually

How to read the chart:

As an example, the Healthcare system‘s value is $4,270B. It carries an estimated inefficiency of 42%. From that level of 42% inefficiency, economists estimate that ~34% can be eliminated (= 34% x 42%).

We now have the capabilities to manage a system-of-systems

planet...

Source: IBM economists survey 2009; n= 480 (*Estimate) – Chart shows “systems”, not “industries.

System inefficiency as % of total economic value

Improvem

ent poten

tial as %

of system in

efficiency

Analysis of inefficiencies in the

...of which $4 Trillion could be eliminated*...

System-of-systems

$54 Trillion100% of WW 2008

GDP

Improvement potential

$4 Trillion7% of WW 2008

GDP

Inefficiencies$15 Trillion28% of WW 2008

GDP

Global economic value of:

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Situation Report The “unique” American Box...

“The Eternal Frontier” - An Ecological History of North America– Isolation: Both a Blessing and a Curse

– Geographic Isolation – a temperate zone between oceans, ice cap and isthmus

– Biological Isolation – native vs. invasive species – flora, fauna and human

– Political Isolation – freedom to start over – greenfield approach

Manifest Destiny – Westward Expansion– Geographic Enablers and Constraints - Rivers, Mountains, Deserts

– Conestoga Wagons and the Transcontinental Railroad

– Pony Express vs. the telegraph

– Cowboys and Immigrants – a “grass is greener” mentality

• Local Government Topologies – Distance to the County Seat– 200+ years ago – Eastern seaboard – one day's walk

– 100+ years ago – Western Expansion – one day's ride (horse or buggy)

– Today – almost irrelevant!

• Human Scale vs Global Scale in the US Local Government– Digital Infrastructure mapped to archaic Physical Infrastructure

– Unsustainable (resource consumption) and non-competitive (world economy)

Geographical and Political Evolution of Local Government Structures

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Situation ReportOur Local Government Box...2007 Census of Governments

“Real-world problems may not respect discipline boundaries.” – Popper

# of Local Governments by County (darker is denser)

89,476 89,476

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Situation Report50% of the US population lives in 146 counties...


http://www.businessinsider.com/half-of-the-united-states-lives-in-these-counties-2013-9 (Data: US Census Bureau)

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Situation ReportBoxed in: States can hold cities back...budget dependence...


http://nextcity.org/daily/entry/state-control-city-tax-spend-fiscal-growth

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Situation ReportOur Future Boxes...Megapolitan America

“This is an extraordinary book. It completely and--in my largely lay judgment--correctly reorients our thinking about where our cities and communities are going both physically and in terms of actual living. What an extraordinary contribution to our thinking on these issues. This should be required reading--and I rarely say that--for every governor, mayor, legislator, city council member, Chamber of Commerce member, and, indeed, citizen!”

--Michael K. Young, President, University of Washington

USA population projected to be 400 million by 2040

23 megapolitan areas dominate the nation's economy by 2050 18 percent of the contiguous 48 states' land base more densely settled than Europe as a whole

Common characteristics Economic Landscape Social Cultural

Will change how America plans...

Map source: www.america2050.org

68No plans...No blueprints...No architecture...a maintenance nightmare!

• 160 rooms• 2 ballrooms• 40 bedrooms • 6 kitchens• 2 basements • 47 fireplaces • 17 chimneys

• 38 years• $5.5M• 1257 windows • 467 doors• 52 skylights• 40 staircases• 367 steps

Staircase to Ceiling

Circular Staircase

Situation ReportThe Box we have built...

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Situation ReportCurrent Trends: Information Technology - CAMSS

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Situation ReportChallenges to Service Delivery

● Physical Infrastructure● 2009 ASCE: Grade of “D”● $157 Billion/yr needed to 2020● $3.1 Trillion in lost productivity – 3.5M jobs

● Digital Infrastructure● The World Economic Forum ranked the US

35th out of 148 countries in Internet bandwidth● 150Mbps for $130/month - Verizon FiOS in NYC● Elsewhere in world - $50-$77/month

● Underfunded Pensions● Cities face $217 Billion gap (61 over 500K)● States face $1.38 Trillion Shortfall

● “The Charitable-Industrial Complex”● Peter Buffett OpEd NYTimes

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Situation Report The Great Regression

The Great Regression - http://www.cnbc.com/id/44876150

Danger to our physical and economic well-being2009 I-5 Skagit River bridge in WA – 3 injured2007 I-35W bridge in Minneapolis - 13 dead and 145 injured

Surface Transportation - $752 Billion by 202025% of bridges are structurally deficient or obsolete4,000 dams are in need of repairPort of LA - 39K truck trips daily due to insufficient freight rail

Electricity - $107 Billion by 2020Windstorm – 3.8M people in Mid-Atlantic states - 2012Equipment – 5M people in SoCal and AZ - 2011Cold weather – 1M people in Texas - 2011

Water - $84 Billion by 2020

Ports and Waterways - $34 Billion by 2020

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Situation Report“Keeping the lights burning and the screws turning”

“Keeping the lights on” or “putting out fires,” whatever tends to dominate the CIO’s work schedule.

NASCIO CIO survey:

33% say they spend 90% of time keeping the lights on.

40+% say they spend 75% of time on maintenance

50% say they spend 25% of time or less on “innovation”

30 percent said they spend just 5 % or less of time on “innovation”

http://www.govtech.com/management/7-Ways-to-Innovate-Government-IT.html

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Situation ReportCurrent State of Digital Affairs...

http://washingtontechnology.com/articles/2014/02/10/meritalk-report.aspx

● State, local agencies want better efficiency but face infrastructure challenges

● 94% are “unprepared” for the changes

● 89% need additional network capacity to maintain current service levels

● 59% indicated security risks

● 55% called out bandwidth limitations and 44% called out storage limitations

Yet...

● 72% would derive benefits from increase efficiencies

● 59% want more shared “best practices”

● 58% want better decision making

But...

● 52% said senior leadership does not understand the impact

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Agenda






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Going forward

“The best way to predict the future is to create/invent it.”

» – Moliere/Kay

“Gentlemen, we have run out of money. Now we have to think.”

– Winston Churchill

“You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.”

» – R. Buckminster Fuller

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Going ForwardThe Territory Ahead...

“I was a-trembling, because I'd got to decide, forever, betwixt two things, and I knowed it. I studied a minute, sort of holding my breath, and then says to myself: "All right, then, I'll GO to hell."

“...I reckon I got to light out for the territory ahead of the rest, because...she’s going to...sivilize me, and I can’t stand it. I been there before.”

- Huckleberry Finn

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Going ForwardTwo inter-related concepts

Smarter Local Government: Regional clouds for operational systemsOpen-source IT infrastructure and applications

Data is created every second of every minute of every hour; we now create 2.5 quintillion bytes of data per year. That is 2,500,000,000,000,000,000 bits of information.

http://www.businessofgovernment.org/sites/default/files/Realizing the Promise of Big Data.pdf

Cognitive Digital Democracy: Gaming, Simulation, Modeling (off-shift)XMILE: OASIS Standard for System Dynamics

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Going ForwardCognitive Digital Democracy: Trust issues...

http://insights-on-business.com/government/does-more-open-equate-to-greater-trust-in-government-not-necessarily

General Trust vs Trust in Government

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Going ForwardCognitive Digital Democracy: Open Data and Trust in Government

http://insights-on-business.com/government/does-more-open-equate-to-greater-trust-in-government-not-necessarily

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Going ForwardLessons from the crowdsourced law reform in Finland

1) People participate in a constructive way

2) The crowd is not delusional about potential impact on the law

3) Crowdsourcing creates learning moments

4) Crowdsourcing as knowledge search

5) The crowd is smart

6) Minority voices were not lost

http://www.businessofgovernment.org/sites/default/files/Realizing the Promise of Big Data.pdf

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Going ForwardScience...

https://mitpress.mit.edu/search/mitpress_search/michael%20batty http://discovermagazine.com/2012/oct/21-geoffrey-west-finds-physical-laws-in-cities

http://www.pnas.org/content/104/17/7301.abstract

Walking Speed/Size

Mammalian Heart Rate/Size

http://discovermagazine.com/2012/oct/21-geoffrey-west-finds-physical-laws-in-cities

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Going ForwardNew Architecture for Smart Cities: Dr. Rick Robinson

http://theurbantechnologist.com/2012/09/26/the-new-architecture-of-smart-cities/

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Going ForwardGovernment as a platform...

http://techcrunch.com/2014/02/13/please-dont-tell-me-you-want-to-be-the-next-red-hat/

“The winning open source model turns open source 1.0 on its head. By packaging open source into a service...companies can monetize open source with a far more robust and flexible model, encouraging innovation, and on-going investment in software development......Build a big business on top of and around a successful platform by adding something of your own that is both substantial and differentiated. Take, for example, our national road and highway system. If you view it as the transportation platform, you start to see the host of highly differentiated businesses that have been built on top of it, ranging from FedEx to Tesla.”

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Going ForwardEnthralled by the immediate

“...we fail to see the systemic issues because we define urgency by what is immediate. We are victims of a self-reinforcing crisis of perception – a crisis of our own making. If it persists, we doom ourselves to continued passivity.

Only catastrophe will compel action, which, given the growing social divide that distributes problems like global warming unevenly between rich and poor, is likely to manifest as social and political disruption – not unlike what we are already seeing around the world.

...nothing short of a profound shift in the Western, materialistic worldview is likely to dislodge this crisis of perception.”

- Peter M. SengeMIT Professor of Leadership

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Going Forward”Takin' on the jellies...you got serious thrill issues, dude!”

The Digital Druid's recommendation / challenge:

Build a cross-discipline, multi-semester course for Smarter Cities•

Business

Computer Science and Engineering

Public Policy

Environment / Urban Planning / Architecture

http://facultybio.haas.berkeley.edu/faculty-list/darwin-solomon

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Going ForwardSeventh Generation...the Great Law of the Iroquois

Hawaii International Conference on Systems ScienceCompleXity Symposium - 5 January 2016

[email protected]@gmail.com

@DigitalDruid0thedigitaldruid.org

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The Way ForwardEnthralled by the immediate: The 5 Stages of Climate Grief

http://ntsg.umt.edu/files/5StagesClimateGrief.htm

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Enthralled by the ImmediateCranial Architecture Artifacts

Moro (Startle) Reflex – Birth to 2 months

Palmar Grasp Reflex – Birth to 6 months

Hypnic Jerk Reflex – lifetime (Goose Bumps)

Fear of Snakes – #1 phobia

Fear of Spiders – #2 phobia

Fear of Spaces – #3 phobia

Fear of Humans – #4 phobia

Fear of Falling – #5 phobia – The “Visual Cliff” experiment

Fear of the Dark – #6 phobia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primitive_reflexes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fear_of_falling https://www.livescience.com/13434-phobias-fears-acrophobia-heights-agoraphobia-arachnophobia.html https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypnic_jerk

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Fear of Snakes – #1 phobia

Fear of Spiders – #2 phobia

Fear of Spaces – #3 phobia

Fear of Humans – #4 phobia

Fear of Falling – #5 phobia – The “Visual Cliff” experiment

Fear of the Dark – #6 phobia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primitive_reflexes http://www.fearof.net/http://www.everydayhealth.com/emotional-health/anxiety-pictures/8-common-phobias.aspx#01http://www.everydayhealth.com/emotional-health/anxiety-pictures/8-common-phobias.aspx#01http://www.livescience.com/13434-phobias-fears-acrophobia-heights-agoraphobia-arachnophobia.htmlhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fear_of_falling https://www.livescience.com/13434-phobias-fears-acrophobia-heights-agoraphobia-arachnophobia.html https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypnic_jerk

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Bibliography and Notes

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Bibliography and Notes

http://www.fastcoexist.com/3026048/visualized/see-how-climate-change-is-warming-things-up-where-you-live

http://www.fastcoexist.com/3025392/watch-60-years-of-climate-change-in-15-seconds

http://www.asce.org/failuretoact/

http://www.asce.org/Infrastructure/Report-Card/State-and-Local-Report-Cards/

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/02/18/billionaire-plans-100-million-campaign-for-democrats/

http://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/StateMiddleClassPolicies-Ch7.pdf

http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2012/12/13-infrastructure-bank-galston-davis

http://www.pewstates.org/research/reports/the-widening-gap-update-85899398241

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/02/us/how-local-taxpayers-bankroll-corporations.html

http://www.pewstates.org/news-room/press-releases/pew-study-finds-61-cities-retirement-systems-face-217-billion-gap-85899442677

http://www.pewstates.org/research/data-visualizations/the-widening-gap-85899377237

http://goodjobsfirst.org/

www.nytimes.com/2012/12/02/us/how-local-taxpayers-bankroll-corporations.html

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/12/01/us/government-incentives.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/30/technology/us-struggling-to-keep-pace-in-broadband-service.html

http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GlobalCompetitivenessReport_2013-14.pdf

http://arstechnica.com/business/2013/10/cheapest-150mbps-broadband-in-big-us-cities-costs-100-more-than-overseas/

http://oti.newamerica.net/publications/policy/the_cost_of_connectivity_2013

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Democracy for a new millennium

http://iamnotanumber.org/d21/how/rules-voting.html

What do we want? Finding out the People's demands. (Ref: p1601)

Some of the difficulty with our present institutions rests on the problem of electing a government whose job is to govern, but whose mandate is settled by one vote every few years by an electorate who usually have only two packages of policies to choose from.

This whole concept invites a great deal more participation by the People and its efficiency in reflecting the general wish is directly proportional to how much participation there is. It also allows for non-participation to be a choice. It could be argued that people do not want all this effort but I contend this would change as soon as the new system reveals that participation actually matters, whereas today it is increasingly felt that it does not matter. Additionally the operation of the process is not hindered or degraded by a low degree of participation. Low participation affects the degree to which the picture is true and complete, as it does in today's system. This new system is based on continuous appraisal of what the People want and how those wishes are being implemented.

Each function of government is self-contained so there is no overall control, and eventually no monolithic government at all. Each function has three parts :

A continuous assessment of what the People want. The implementing civil servants, split into two groups, a large one to do the work, a smaller one to be Devil's Advocates. The monitoring function which watches how well the people's wishes are being carried out.

The wishes of the People, which the government is duty and legally bound to attempt to satisfy, are to be continuously and continually expressed. This is to be achieved by means of voting mechanisms set up to be accessible to all via the Internet. Every government department and function will have any number of votes and polls running simultaneously through which the People would inform the government of its demands. Access to these facilities would be made available freely any time and free of any kind of charge so that maximum participation can be encouraged and achieved. Access would be enabled via home computers, public terminals, mobile phones, any internet connected computer system and through a government interactive television station. If specialised equipment is necessary to enable access from home via television then this would be supplied at a nominal price, but not free as access to democracy should require explicit, deliberate, conscious input. All eligible voters would be allocated an id and password for voting purposes. Voting would be via 'government' web sites, at least one for each department or function. An attempt to vote would result in a validation of id by means of a database which tracks only which ids have voted on which issues. The vote itself, once approved, would be totally secret.(Ref: p1602)

Votes and polls will be of several kinds :

One-off votes with a discrete and final yes or no answer.(1190) One-off votes with discrete yes or no answers where one or more changes of vote are permitted until a deadline when a vote closes finally. Single questions with multiple choice answers.

Single questions with multiple choice answers where one or more changes of vote are permitted until a deadline when a vote closes finally.

Polls, with a closing date, where the purpose is to establish a ranking, the voters deciding from a list which are more and which are less important or urgent. Polls, with a closing date, where the purpose is to establish from a list whether an entry should or should not be on the list. Polls, which establish rankings or presence on a list, which run effectively forever, closing if at all at some time to be determined at some later date. Polls which establish rankings within a pre-defined list of say ten entries. A special category of vote which is one-off, final and instantly legally binding on the government.

(Ref: p1603)

replied to, publicly, by the Monitoring department immediately it occurs. No vote or poll would have legitimacy until outstanding challenges have been answered, if necessary by a court.

http://iamnotanumber.org/d21/how/rules-voting.html

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To make the system safe against fraud, hacking, spoofing and negative feedback there would be restraints on numbers and timings of vote castings, each of these being stated when the vote or poll is set up. Single votes would be final and irrevocable, like today's X on a ballot paper. Changes of votes would be constrained by a combination of frequency limits such as once per hour, per day or per month and total change limits such as only one change of mind, only ten changes of mind per month. Polls measuring rankings would take into account total numbers of voters and total numbers of vote changes. Polls and votes would display both real-time and batch statistics about themselves. Polls measuring rankings would explicitly take into account the bottom of the rankings as well as the top, establishing continuous weightings. Polls measuring rankings would have built into them time delays such that today's final view only becomes a 'legal' fact after say a week or a month.

Any decision or opinion on which the public is consulted would be available for inspection via another web site where all current and past votes and polls would be posted with all their statistics. In addition to statistics presented by default there would be analytical functions available on each site to enable any viewer with the right style of connection to conduct their own analysis of the figures.

(Ref: p1604)

Except in the special case noted above, votes and polls would all be non-binding, their function only to record the People's wishes. This is deliberate and necessary. Those doing 'government' must be put under pressure but not forced. If the People decide that one of their 'wishes' should indeed be, or now become, a direct order then a 'special case' of a binding vote is available for implementation. But this should be a great exception not a default and should therefore demand much more effort by all concerned to put into effect.

The executive department would 'govern', making decisions that will be implemented, using the votes and polls as guidelines for what to do. The monitoring department would cross-check what is actually done against what the People asked for. The monitoring department also has a website on which the People can register approval or disapproval. When either people or the People or the department decides something is unsatisfactory they can demand a review of any matter.

The system should prevent undesirable feedback in voting processes but there are two features which will mitigate the consequences of such feedback or runaway effects if somehow they do occur anyway. One, the executive department does have the option of refusing to implement or support the wishes of the People, but can only do this with complete disclosure of the reasoning behind doing so. Second, the exact methods by which voting and polling occur, on every individual vote and poll, will be published before and during the vote or poll, on the web site conducting the vote or poll. This will enable anyone anywhere anytime to argue that the methods and algorithms are incorrect, illogical, mathematically unsound, wrong, unsafe, fallible, unjust, biased or in some other way unsatisfactory. A challenge to a vote or poll would be replied to, publicly, by the Monitoring department immediately it occurs. No vote or poll would have legitimacy until outstanding challenges have been answered, if necessary by a court.

Enthralled by the immediate hicss comple xity symposium - v4.0 - 5jan2016

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Transcript of Enthralled by the immediate hicss comple xity symposium - v4.0 - 5jan2016