ENSO Variability in SODA: 1871-2008 SULAGNA RAY BENJAMIN GIESE TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY WCRP 2010,...
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Transcript of ENSO Variability in SODA: 1871-2008 SULAGNA RAY BENJAMIN GIESE TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY WCRP 2010,...
ENSO Variability in SODA: 1871-2008
SULAGNA RAYBENJAMIN GIESE
TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY
WCRP 2010, Paris, 17-19 Nov. 2010
Compo et al., BAMS, 2006
Historical Winds
Comparison of NINO 4 zonal wind stress between 20CRv2 and ERA-40
Black : 20CRv2 Red : ERA-40
Model
− Parallel Ocean Program 2.0.1
Domain
− Global (including Arctic)
Resolution
− 0.4° × 0.25° average resolution
− 40 levels, 10m spacing from surface to 450m
Winds
− 20CRv2 daily stress 1871-2008
Heat and Salt fluxes
− Bulk formulae using 20CRv2 daily variables
SODA Data Assimilation
− WOD09 hydrographic and ICOADS 2.5 SST data
SODA 2.2.4
HADISST SODA 2.2.4
1877
1997
DJF SST anomaly of two strong El Niños from HadISST & SODA 2.2.4
Standard Measure of El Niño : NINO-3.4 SST anomaly
NINO-3.4 SST anomaly from SODA 2.2.4 (Red) and HADISST (Black)
Stronger El Niños in SODA compared to HADISST
hhhhh
NINO-3.4 Index
DJF SST anomaly of 1997-98 El Niño
First moment of SST anomaly - Like the center of mass
SST anomaly must be greater than 0.5°C
Area must be greater or equal to the NINO-3.4 region
CHI Longitude = center of El Niño warming
CHI Amplitude = strength of El Niño
Same for La Niña
Center of Heat Index : CHI
Am
pli
tud
e (C
)
Years
CHI- Amplitude showing strength of El Niños
El Niño in the late 19th century as strong as those in late 20th century
Am
pli
tud
e (C
)
Years
CHI- Amplitude showing strength of La Niña
La Niña in the last century do not show much variation
Lo
ng
itu
de
Years
Circle radius proportional to the strength of CHI-amplitude
CHI-Longitude showing Location of El Niños
An Analysis of the position of El Niño in SODA
• Histogram of the position overlayed by a Gaussian with same mean and standard deviation
• Null hypothesis: Position of El Niño randomly distributed about 140W
Obstacles in Ocean reanalysis
• Ocean observations are inhomogenous in space and time- Data thinning experiment ✔
• Model bias - Simulation vs. Assimilation ✔
• Errors in surface forcing
WOD09 Hydrographic Temperature Observations
1920s
1990s1960s
1940s
Per decade
ICOADS 2.5 Number of SST Observations
Per decade
Data Thinning Experiment
Sample the 1990s as though sampled in different periods
5 Experiments : 1.) No Assimilation
As though sampled in the
2.) 1920s
3.) 1940s
4.) 1960s
5.) 1990s – Control run
All other elements of the run are identical
SST RMS Difference in the Tropical Pacific
Value in assimilating even sparse observations
Model Bias in CHI-Amplitude and Longitude
SODA 2.2.4 CHI-Amplitude
SO
DA
2.2
.0 C
HI-
Am
pli
tud
e
SO
DA
2.2
.0 C
HI-
Lo
ng
itu
de
SODA 2.2.4 CHI-Longitude
• Bias in the model does not seem to affect the amplitude of El Niño events
• There is a slight westward bias in the position of the El Niño
Red− Before 1950 Blue− After 1950
Comparison of CHI from SODA and HadISSTH
AD
ISS
T C
HI-
Am
plitu
de
SODA 2.2.4 CHI-Amplitude SODA 2.2.4 CHI-Longitude
HA
DIS
ST
CH
I-Lo
ngitu
de
• El Niños are warmer in SODA compared to HadISST before 1950
• El Niños in HadISST are east of those in SODA for the post-1950 period
• No correlation before1950 in terms of location
Red− Before 1950 Blue− After 1950
• A 138-yr reanalysis is used to explore ENSO variability
• First moment of temp. anomaly (CHI) is used to describe El Niño
• Prominent decadal variability of El Niño strength, but little trend
• Location of El Niño varies considerably… But the distribution cannot
be distinguished from Gaussian
• Model bias in SODA does not significantly affect the strength of El Niño but
does introduce a slight westward bias in location
• Assimilation of sparse data adds value to the reanalysis
Conclusions