ENSEMBLES – Progress Report WP6.2 meeting, Helsinki
-
Upload
tanisha-gilliam -
Category
Documents
-
view
26 -
download
0
description
Transcript of ENSEMBLES – Progress Report WP6.2 meeting, Helsinki
ENSEMBLES – Progress Report
WP6.2 meeting, Helsinki
Chris Hewitt, Met Office Hadley Centre, April 2007
Project Office can be contacted on [email protected] site is http://www.ensembles-eu.org
© Crown copyright 2007 Page 2
Strategic Objectives
1. Develop an ensemble prediction systembased on global and regional Earth System models, validated against observations and analyses,to produce a probabilistic estimate of uncertainty in future climate at the seasonal, decadal and longer timescales
1. Quantify and reduce uncertainty in the representation of physical, chemical, biological and human-related feedbacks in the Earth System
2. Exploit the results by linking the outputs to a range of applications, including agriculture, health, food security, energy, water resources, insurance
© Crown copyright 2007 Page 3
Research Themes (RTs) summary
System development and assembly
Model ‘engine’: hindcasts, climate integrations
Understanding, evaluation
Impacts, Scenarios and policy
© Crown copyright 2007 Page 4
Progress: GCM seasonal to decadal
Three different seasonal to decadal forecast systems to estimate model uncertainty:
Multi-model system for s2d forecasts installed at ECMWF built from EUROSIP operational activities and DEMETER experience
Perturbed parameter system, built from the decadal prediction system (DePreSys) at the Met Office
Stochastic physics system, from the CASBS system developed for medium-range forecasting at ECMWF
Design of a set of common experiments to determine the benefits of each approach. All show promising aspects.
Improved ocean data assimilation systems for s2d prediction
© Crown copyright 2007 Page 5
Progress: GCM centennial
Multi-model ACC simulations (IPCC 4AR)
Conducted historical runs (1860-2000)
and scenario runs (IPCC A1B, A2, B1)
including Hadley Centre perturbed parameter runs, maybe other GCMs
© Crown copyright 2007 Page 6
Progress: regional modelling
GCM’s
DRAFT – TO BE FINALISEDRCM’s
METO-HC MPIMET CNRM DMI ETH KNMI ICTP SMHI UCLM C4I GKSS MetNo CHMI
METO-HC
1950-2100
1950-2050
1950-2050
1950-2050
1950-2050
MPIMET
1950-2100
1950-2100
1950-2050
1950-2050
1950-2050
1950-2050
FUB
IPSL 1950-2050
1950-2050
CNRM 1950-2050
1950-2050
NERSC 1950-2050
1950-2050
Defined RCM domainERA40 hindcats (1961-2000) at 50km resolution: 11
completed, 7 already in the central archiveERA40 runs at 25km resolution underwayMatrix of driving GCMs/RCMs devised
0.22º (25km) grid mesh (courtesy of Burkhardt Rockel)
© Crown copyright 2007 Page 7
Progress (continued)
Scientific analyses (e.g. cloud feedbacks, carbon, sea-ice, …)
Linking impact models to probabilistic scenarios (including provision of interim pdfs from PPE to RT6)
Publicly available Climate Explorer http://climexp.knmi.nl/ further developed as integrated diagnostic tool
Producing daily gridded datasets for Europe (on same grid as RCMs), particularly for evaluating extremes
New emissions scenario developed (A1B baseline, stabilise to 450ppmv CO2eq) OLD (ECA daily dataset) NEW
© Crown copyright 2007 Page 8
Progress (continued)
Editable publications page available, hosted by UREADMM
Publications of ENSEMBLES results starting to appear in journals. ENSEMBLES Technical Reports series created
Need to increase the publicity of the results of the project
Participation at international meetings: EGU, AGU, EMS, ESSP, side-events at COP/MOP, joint meetings with WHO and OECD
West Africa to be the non-European RCM domain later in project
We are developing links with other projects and programmes (e.g. AMMA, ADAM, CECILIA, CIRCE, CLAVIER, DYNAMITE, Euro-Limpacs, GMES, MERSEA, QUANTIFY, WMO/WCRP mainly CLIVAR and GEWEX)
Our General Assembly is growing in popularity, internally and externally. GA2007 in Prague, 12-16 November
Expanding the “affiliated partners” (16 currently, more requested)
© Crown copyright 2007 Page 9
Affiliated partners
1. FAO, Rene Gommes, RT5&62. WHO, Bettine Menne, RT53. University of Zurich, Nadine Salzmann, RT64. ESSC, John Christy, RT55. Dept. Geography, Nat. Univ. of Ireland, Kieran Hickey, RT56. NCAR, Guy Brasseur, Jerry Meehl, Linda Mearns, RT2A&2B7. FRGCG, Michio Kawamiya, RT1&2A8. CCSR (University of Tokyo), Masahide Kimoto, RT49. Nat. Inst. Earth Sciences, Toru Nozawa/Seita Emori, RT2A10. SINTEF Energy Research, Atle Harby, RT611. University of Copenhagen, Eigil Kaas, RT2A12. University of Exeter, David Stephenson, RT4 (&5?)13. Nat. Acad. Of Scientists of Ukraine, Alexander Palonski, RT614. University of Newcastle, Hayley Fowler15. OURANOS Climate Analysis group, Daniel Caya/Diane Chaumont, RT2B16. Canadian Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics Network (CRCMD), Colin Jones
© Crown copyright 2007 Page 10
Stream 2 simulations – GCMs
s2d hindcasts 1960 onwards (previously 1991-2001) Hindcasts underway. Expected completion Aug08 Models: IFS/HOPE (ECMWF), ARPEGE/OPA (CNRM and CERFACS),
HadGEM1a and DePreSys (METO-HC), ECHAM/OM1 (IfM-GEOMAR), INGV
1860-2000 historical simulations and 21st Century scenarios using updated models and E1 (previously A1B, A2, B1)
Spin-up of control runs underway 20thC historical simulations by Aug07, may be 3 months later 21stC scenarios expected Aug08 Models: DKCM (DMI), HadGEM2-AO and HadCM3CHadCM3C (METO-HC), MPIMETMPIMET,
EGMAM (FUB), CNRM, CNRS-IPSLCNRS-IPSL
© Crown copyright 2007 Page 11
Stream 2 simulations – RCMs
ERA40 hindcasts (1961-2000) at 25km. Most in data archive, aiming for all by June 07
1950-2050/2100 (A1B and different driving GCMs) at 25km Due Aug07, may be 4 months later Models: METO-HC, SMHI, MPIMET, ICTP, CNRM, ETH, DMI, UCLM, KNMI,
C4I, GKSS, CHMI/CUNI, Met.no
RT3 RCM system developed, for use in RT2B by end April 07 Weighting of members of RCM ensembles, due Aug07 Recommendations and guidance on methods for construction
of probabilistic regional climate scenarios by Feb08 Assessment of robustness of sds techniques using GCM and
RCM output by Feb08
© Crown copyright 2007 Page 12
Plans for 2007
Develop data archives s2d @ ECMWF building on DEMETER database RCM @ DMI building on PRUDENCE database GCM @ MPIMET (http://ensembles.wdc-climate.de) building on IPCC WCDC
activities
Daily gridded dataset for surface climate variables for Europe,
due Aug 07
Develop impacts models (e.g. crops, water resources, energy)
Develop statistical downscaling tools
Improved estimates for changes in extreme events
Workshops (Joint ENSEMBLES/CLIVAR workshop; 5th Study Conference on BALTEX)
© Crown copyright 2007 Page 13
Further develop links with CLIVAR:
joint workshop with Task Force on Seasonal Prediction, June 2007
discussions with WGCM
Further develop links with other WCRP projects:
joint workshop with CFMIP, April 2007
GEWEX, e.g. joint involvement in BALTEX conference, June 2007
Develop links with other EC projects (e.g. AMMA joint workshop, Feb07)
ENSEMBLES General Assemblies are now attracting other groups
Outreach plans
© Crown copyright 2007 Page 14
Concluding remarks – innovative work
Brings together largely separate communities and integrates world-leading European research:s2d, anthropogenic climate change, global modellers, regional modellers (dynamical and statistical downscaling), scientific understanding, evaluation with observations, application modellers to deliver climate impacts, emission scenario developers, training programmes
Multi-disciplinary approach allows exchange of knowledge, ideas and techniques – for example extensive work on extremes
Multi-model ensemble-based probability approach will quantify uncertainty, increase understanding, influence the development of the next generation of models, leading to uncertainty reduction in the future
Examples of new products: multi-model RCM system at 25km resolution probabilistic methods for use for GCMs, RCMs, impact models probabilistic predictions from s2d2c timescales to explore impacts gridded observations for Europe with estimate of uncertainty public availability of large datasets developments to the publicly available Climate Explorer on-line tools for users to downscale Ensembles simulations
© Crown copyright 2007 Page 15
Questions