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COUNTY AND LOCAL ROAD NEEDS 2012

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Previous Studies (2010-11) Additional Road Investments Needed to

Support Oil and Gas Production and Development in North Dakota

Rural Road Investment Needs to Support Agricultural Logistics and Economic Development in North Dakota

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SB 2325

“The purpose of updating and maintaining reports for transportation infrastructure needs for all county and township roads in the state, for the biennium beginning July 1, 2011 and ending June 30, 2013”

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Analysis Process

Traffic Volume Existing Structure Existing Condition Costs and Practices

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Traffic Volume

Locations Volumes Forecasts Routing Optimization Results

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Traffic Types Modeled

Oil Development Agricultural Movements

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Location Assignment

Data Collection Network: Federal, State, Local Locations:

Spacing Units (Oil & Gas) Input Sources (NDDOT, Oil & Gas, SWC) Output Destinations (NDDOT, Oil & Gas, SWC) Elevators (UGPTI) Townships (Census)

Volumes: Oil – (Oil & Gas) Agriculture (NDPSC Grain Movement)

Forecasts: Oil – (Oil & Gas) Agriculture (NDSU – Ag Extension)

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Volumes

Oil Based upon NDDOT white paper (2,300 trucks

per well) Overloads estimated based upon internal

assumptions and verified using weigh station data

Oil Related ESAL assumptions taken from NDDOT estimates

Agriculture Based upon average truck yield and throughput

data from NDPSC Grain Movement Database

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Forecasts

Oil Developed from forecasts provided by Oil &

Gas Agriculture

Based upon discussions with NDSU Extension, Industry organizations

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Future Well Locations

Drilling Zonal Plan/Forecasts Area Density Frequency of Drilling in a Spacing Unit Age of Well

Subject to Zonal Plan/Forecasts Number of Wells in a spacing unit

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Route Generation

ESRI Network Analyst was used to generate routes between: Spacing Units (fronthaul and backhaul)

Freshwater Oil transload facilities Sand locations Cities SWD Spacing Units

Townships (fronthaul and backhaul) Elevators Ethanol Facilities Processors

Elevators (fronthaul and backhaul) Elevators Ethanol Facilities Processors Final Destinations

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Sample Routing

Inbound Sand Water Pipe

Outbound Oil

Rail Transload Pipe Transload

SWD

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Inbound Sand

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Inbound Water

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Inbound Pipe

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Outbound Oil - Rail

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Outbound Oil - Pipe

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Outbound SWD

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All Inbound

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All Outbound

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All Traffic

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Agricultural Analysis

Crop Production

Elevator & Plant Demands

Known

Known

Truck Trips and Routes

Predict

Segment Specific Traffic

Estimate

Data: Crop Production (NASS), Elevator Volumes (NDPSC), In-State Processors (Survey), Road Network (NDDOT-GIS Hub), Local Road Data (2008 Survey)

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Crop Production and Location

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Distribution Model

Each township connected to nearest 150 elevators

Elevators connected to each other Elevators connected to plants Fastest and shortest route algorithms Objective: meet the demands at

elevators and in-state processing plants with minimal hauling distances (trucking cost)

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Network Optimization

Constrained Optimization Model Freshwater to Wells Sand to Wells Gravel to Wells Pipe to Wells Equipment to Wells Supplies to Wells Agricultural Commodities to Elevators and Processors

Wheat Soybeans Corn Lentils/Dry Edible Beans Barley Oats Sunflower

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Network Optimization

Thirteen separate optimization models were estimated for each year of the analysis (260 in total)

Volumes from all optimization runs were aggregated to individual roadway segments

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Existing Structure

Surface Type obtained from GIS Shapefiles

Surface Type verified by county officials Independent verification Graded roadway width – survey

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Existing Condition

1,000 miles of paved CMC roads were scored using the NDDOT deduct scoring system

The approximately 4,500 remaining paved CMC roads were given condition ratings by county officials using a 5 category condition assessment

Both condition assessment methods were converted to Present Serviceability Rating (PSR) scores

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PSR DESCRIPTION

4.0- 5.0

Only new (or nearly new) superior pavements are likely to be smooth enough and distress free (sufficiently free of cracks and patches) to qualify for this category. Most pavements constructed or resurfaced during the data year would normally be rated in this category.

3.0 - 4.0

Pavements in this category, although not quite as smooth as those described above, give a first-class ride and exhibit few, if any, visible signs of surface deterioration. Flexible pavements may be beginning to show evidence of rutting and fine random cracks. Rigid pavements may be beginning to show evidence of slight surface deterioration, such as minor cracking and spalls.

2.0 - 3.0

The riding qualities of pavements in this category are noticeably inferior to those of the new pavements and may be barely tolerable for high-speed traffic. Surface defects of flexible pavements may include rutting, map cracking, and extensive patching. Rigid pavements may have a few joint fractures, faulting and/or cracking and some pumping.

1.0 - 2.0

Pavements have deteriorated to such an extent that they affect the speed of free-flow traffic. Flexible pavement may have large potholes and deep cracks. Distress includes raveling, cracking, and rutting and occurs over 50 percent or more of the surface. Rigid pavement distress includes joint spalling, faulting, patching, cracking, and scaling and may include pumping and faulting.

0.0 - 1.0

Pavements are in extremely deteriorated conditions. The facility is passable only at reduced speed and considerable ride discomfort. Large potholes and deep cracks exist. Distress occurs over 75 percent or more of the surface.

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Costs and Practices

Data collected through survey of county road managers

Gravel Road Costs Please report costs for gravel for county roads in the table below. The table asks for unit costs for graveling, maintaining, and operating gravel roads. Gravel/Scoria Cost

- Average Gravel/Scoria Cost (crushing & royalties) Per cubic yd.

- Trucking Cost from Gravel Origin Per loaded mile/Cu. Yard

- Placement Costs Per mile

- Blading Cost Per mile

- Dust Suppressant Costs Per mile

- Snow Removal Cost Per mile

Average Regraveling Thickness (Scoria/Gravel) Cubic yd/mile or Inches (Please circle one)

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Costs and Practices

Road Maintenance and Practices Gravel Road Practices Please report blading and graveling frequency for county gravel roads.

Blading Frequency

❏ 1 per week ❏ 1 per month ❏ 2 per month ❏ other (please explain)

Regraveling Frequency

❏ Every year ❏ Every 2-3 years ❏ Every 3-4 years ❏ 5 or more years ❏ other (please explain)

Stabilization

❏ Currently use (if this is selected, please comment on success rate) ❏ Exploring usage ❏ Do not plan to use

If answered “ Currently use” , please specify type of stabilization, cost per application and application frequency___________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________________________

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Improvement Types

How would you classify the average gravel road condition in your county?: ❏ Very Good ❏ Good ❏ Fair ❏ Poor

Paved Road Practices Please report typical paved road maintenance practices used in your county. Typical overlay frequency: _______________ Typical overlay thickness: ________________ Is roadway width due to repeated overlay treatment an issue in your county? ❏ Yes ❏ No If so – what is the estimated number of miles affected? Aside from routine maintenance and improvements, what other challenges are facing roadway maintenance in your county? (flooding, high traffic generators etc).

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Costs and Practices

- Oil Impacted Gravel Roads (where applicable) Blading Frequency

❏ 1 per week ❏ 1 per month ❏ 2 per month ❏ other (please explain)

Graveling Frequency

❏ Every year ❏ Every 2-3 years ❏ Every 3-4 years ❏ 5 or more years ❏ other (please explain)

Stabilization

❏ Currently use (if this is selected, please comment on success rate) ❏ Exploring usage ❏ Do not plan to use

If answered “ Currently use” , please specify type of stabilization, cost per application and application frequency__________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________

Dust Suppressant – on heavily impacted roads, how often is dust suppressant applied?

How would you classify the average gravel road condition in your county?: ❏ Very Good ❏ Good ❏ Fair ❏ Poor

What additional maintenance practices are being used to mitigate the impacts of oil development on the county gravel roads?

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Improvement Types

Paved Condition scores converted to PSR SN information, where available, calculated

or estimated based upon past responses/typical structure

AASHTO models used to simulate pavement deterioration and improvement types

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Timeliness of Improvements

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Improvement Types

Paved Resurfacing Reconstruction due to condition Sliver widening due to roadway width

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Improvement Types - Gravel

Types of Practices Graveling and Blading

Normal Levels (Example: regraveling every 5 years, blade once per month) Increased Levels (Example: regraveling every 3-4 years, blade twice per

month) High Levels (Example: regraveling every 2-3 years, blade once per week) Usage of Dust Suppressant on Impacted Roads

Graveling and Base Stabilization Base 1 Permazyme Concrete

Graveling and Base Stabilization with Armor Coat Base 1 Permazyme Concrete

Asphalt Surface

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Improvement Types - Gravel

Traffic model results will be segmented based upon traffic levels Levels broken into increments of 50 AADT

0-50 50-100 100-150 150-200 200-250 250+

County specific practices will be used as the base maintenance practices

Life cycle costs of each maintenance practice will be calculated (i.e. 20 year cost of graveling)

Maintenance Type/Improvement selected for each AADT class based upon minimum life cycle cost

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Results – Paved Roads

Period Oil Counties Rest of State Statewide Total

2013-14 $278 $84 $363

2015-16 $146 $155 $301

2017-18 $111 $166 $277

2019-20 $54 $145 $199

2021-22 $43 $102 $146

2023-32 $200 $460 $660

2013-32 $832 $1,113 $1,946

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Results – Unpaved Roads

Period Oil Counties Rest of State Statewide Total

2013-14 $243 $227 $471

2015-16 $243 $227 $471

2017-18 $255 $231 $486

2019-20 $267 $234 $501

2021-22 $267 $234 $501

2023-32 $1,376 $1,228 $2,604

2013-32 $2,652 $2,382 $5,033

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Results – All Roads

Period Oil Counties Rest of State Statewide Total

2013-14 $521 $311 $834

2015-16 $389 $382 $772

2017-18 $366 $397 $763

2019-20 $321 $379 $700

2021-22 $310 $336 $647

2023-32 $1,576 $1,688 $3,264

2013-32 $3,484 $3,495 $6,979

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Draft Report

The full report can be found at www.ugpti.org – look in the upper right portion of the webpage

Alan Dybing alan.dybing@ndsu.edu 701.231.5988