Enhancing Climate Resiliency and Agriculture on American Indian Land
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Transcript of Enhancing Climate Resiliency and Agriculture on American Indian Land
A Collaborative Modeling Approach to Assess Resiliency of Snow‐fed Arid Land River Systems:
Results from an Organizational Survey of Water Managers
Kelley Sterle1
Karen Simpson2
Loretta Singletary3
Maureen McCarthy4
Derek Kauneckis5
Mike Dettinger61UNR Graduate Program of Hydrologic Sciences2University of Nevada, Reno (UNR) Department of Political Science3UNR Cooperative Extension4UNR Academy for the Environment5Desert Research Institute6United States Geological Survey
Newlands Project, NV Oct 2014
70th Annual SWCS, Greensboro, NC
July, 2015
Presentation Agenda
• Challenges to Snow‐fed Arid Land River Systems
• Place Based Research: Project Location
• Assessing Climate Resiliency
• Collaborative Modeling Approach
• Hydro‐climatic Model Integration/Scenarios
• Organizational Survey ‐‐ Preliminary Results
• Research Moving Forward
Climate Change Challenges in Snow‐fed Arid Land River Systems
• Warming temperatures cause more precipitation to fall as rain versus snow, decreasing snowpack– Snowmelt timing impacts runoff
• Changes to timing and length of growing season• Changes in weather patterns may increase aridity• Warming temperatures may increase irrigation demand– Threatens agricultural based economies and food security
• Projected increases in intensity, frequency and duration of extreme weather events
Truckee‐Carson River System (TCRS)Population: c. 400,000
States: California (headwaters), Nevada (middle/lower reaches)
Urban Areas: Reno, Sparks, Carson City
Agricultural Areas:Newlands Project, Carson Valley, tribal agriculture
Tribal Governments:Pyramid Lake Paiute, Fallon Paiute‐Shoshone, Washoe
Place‐based Research • Climate:
– Sierra Nevada temperature follows the global average• Water:
– Sierra Nevada snowmelt supplies Great Basin water to agriculture, urban communities and environmental services
– System has both groundwater and surface water– Truckee River has high levels of upstream storage– Carson River has no upstream storage
• Policy and Economics:– Regulated by Prior Appropriation Doctrine – who uses how
much, for what purpose, when and where– Highly litigated river system (over adjudicated during low flows)– High diversity of water uses, expected to increase
Irrigating the Arid Western US: The Newlands Project
• Understands, acknowledges, anticipates and absorbs changing conditions
• Capacity to adapt, respond effectively and to reorganize as necessary to maintain essential community functions and identity
Truckee Canal, Oct 2014.
What is a Climate Resilient Community?
Climate Change Uncertainty
• High degree of uncertainty surrounding extent and impact of climate change– Issues of downscaling global models to regional levels– Changes in local environmental/meteorological conditions
– Impacts on local political, social and economic systems• Climate scenario development effective way to assess
climate resiliency and uncertainty– Indicates reaction of system to a variety of changes– Discovers the subset of harmful or catastrophic scenarios
Interdisciplinary Collaborative Modeling
• Co‐develop climate‐stress scenarios with stakeholders
• Understand the impact of climate change on the hydrologic system
• Understand human decision‐making under climate extremes
• Determine the efficacy of alternative water policies under climate extremes
Lahontan Reservoir, Oct 2014.
Water for the Seasons Methodology: Collaborative Modeling
ocal climate enarios
Local hydrologic models
Collaborative Modeling
ated hydro‐climatic narios
Local Stakeholder Input:‐Organizational Survey‐Producer Survey
Stakeholder Advisory Group (SAG)
Agent‐Based Modeling (ABM)
Climate Modeling
Collaborative Modeling and Participatory Research
Water for the Seasons
Model: CMIP5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5Purpose: Develop ~5 climate scenarios for the TCRS using interview thresholds, indicators and historical data
Climate Scenarios
Surveys and Interviews
Method: Organizational and Producer Level
SurveyPurpose: Thresholds and indicators
Stakeholder Advisory Group (SAG)
Method: Collaborative Modeling
ydrologic Modelingydrologic Modeling
River Watershed
GSFLOWe: Coupled and water to streamflow er supply
Model: RiverwarePurpose: Operations
Model: MODFLOWPurpose: Groundwater
GSFLOWe: Coupled and water to
predict streamflow and water supplyModel: MODSIMPurpose: Operations
River Watershed
wide Evapotranspiration
e: Account for the open water and ural evaporation loss from gic budget
Collaborative Modeling Team Timeline
nterview Water Managers
Survey Water Rights holders
Construct SAG
Collaborative modeling (SAG)
Agent‐based modeling
Report and distribute resilienceresults Year One Year Two Year Three Year Four
Water Management Organizations Survey
ocal climate enarios
Local hydrologic models
Collaborative Modeling
ated hydro‐climatic narios
Local Stakeholder Input:‐Organizational Survey‐Producer Survey
Stakeholder Advisory Group (SAG)
Agent‐Based Modeling (ABM)
Organizational Survey Methods (n=~70)
Face‐to‐face interviews with water managers– How do changing climate conditions stress water resources on the river system?
– What information from climate and hydrologic models are most useful to water managers?
– What policy instruments are perceived as most useful for adapting to or mitigating water stress – and how feasible are they for implementation?
How will the responses to these questions aid in assessing community level climate resiliency?
Organization Interviews
INSERT JACOBS LATEST MAP OF ORG OFFICES with n = ?
Results to date illustrate n = 14
Priorities during Drought
Municipal use Agricultural water supply Ecological restoration and wildlife Domestic wells, cultural uses and hydro‐electric power
Scenario Data: Drought Indicators
akeholders in different parts of the river system pointed to
30’s 1977: Upper Carson
1987‐1994: Tahoe, Truckee, and Carson
1970s: Lake Tahoe (Truckee Headwaters)
2015: Truckee and Carson
Hydro‐Climatic Modeling
Climate Scenarios
Surface Water Models
Groundwater Models
Operations Models
ET Models
Precipitation and Temp
Water use, rrigation, Crop type, Operational ules
Water supply hresholds, ualitative mpacts
Develop Scenarios
takeholder Advisory Group (SAG)
Iterated Scenarios
Collaborative Modeling: Drought Impacts and Responses
ganizations reported varied reactions:NGOs doing ecological restoration not that concerned because they are planting drought tolerant native plantsrrigation district unable to tolerate more than 1‐2 years of drought; alternative crops not an option because insufficient water supplies to set themFernley (small town in lower reach) has both surface and groundwater supplies, but cannot use surface water because its treatment plant is designed for groundwater
Agriculture: Most impacted due to increased irrigation needs. Quality and quantity of the crop is jeopardized. Hydrologic losses: More storage good, but warmer temperatures increase evaporation losses. Many recommend storing excess water underground.Environmental: Warmer temperatures challenge environmental restoration projects and fisheries spawning from both increased water temperatures and less water flowing through the system.Economic: Recruit low water industries, but hotter temperatures increase cooling costs.
Does Temperature Matter?
Present and Future Stressors
Population growthUnsustainable development and water use
Is Climate Change Important
Nearly 100% say it is very important
Research Moving Forward: Agricultural Producer Survey
ocal climate enarios
Local hydrologic models
Collaborative Modeling
ated hydro‐climatic narios
Local Stakeholder Input:‐Organizational Survey‐Producer Survey
Stakeholder Advisory Group (SAG)
Agent‐Based Modeling (ABM)
Producer Survey Methods
Face‐to‐face interviews with stratified sample – Impact of temperature, soil moisture, seasonality– Drought/flood thresholds for agriculture– Feasibility of adaptation strategies – Policy, economic or physical barriers to adaptation– Interaction between producers and other parts of the system (BOR, tribal, state and local governments)
Mail survey to TCRS agricultural producers
The Stakeholder Affiliate Group (SAG)
ocal climate enarios
Local hydrologic models
Collaborative Modeling
ated hydro‐climatic narios
Local Stakeholder Input:‐Organizational Survey‐Producer Survey
Stakeholder Advisory Group (SAG)
Agent‐Based Modeling (ABM)
SAG Methods (n=~12)
SAG – representatives of key local interests– Discuss/evaluate/respond to scenarios and models
Simulated modeling of the system as a whole, because it includes key local decision‐makersncreases communication among local stakeholders and across scientific disciplines
Integrated Modeling Methodology
ocal climate enarios
Local hydrologic models
Collaborative Modeling
ated hydro‐climatic narios
Local Stakeholder Input:‐Organizational Survey‐Producer Survey
Stakeholder Advisory Group (SAG)
Agent‐Based Modeling (ABM)
Modeling Complex Systems
ocal climate enarios
Local hydrologic models
Collaborative Modeling
ated hydro‐climatic narios
Local Stakeholder Input:‐Organizational Survey‐Producer Survey
Stakeholder Advisory Group (SAG)
Agent‐Based Modeling (ABM)
Unexpected Effects
Laws/policies/projects have at least two aspects– Formal (the text of a law, the goal of a policy, purpose of a project)
– Applied (implementation, actual effects, unintended consequences)
Gap between goal and implementation Collaborative modeling methods can fill this gap by seeking out and including local knowledge
evada Water Law and Prior Appropriation
Water law in Nevada requires that water rights holders demonstrate “beneficial use”– Use all of their allocation every 5 years or lose it– Leads to inefficient water use‐‐distorts incentives
Water rights are tied to land parcels– During a drought this can prevent moving water to more productive land within an operation
– Irrigators who switch to pivot sprinkler risk losing water right allocated to the “corners” of a field
Agricultural Production andClimate Change Adaptations
Interaction between agricultural producers and:– Natural systems: temperature/transpiration, growing season, soil moisture
– Policy systems: rules for allocation, management of reservoirs, basin‐wide agreements
– Other competing users (ecological, recreation, M&I)Assess flexibilities and vulnerabilities of agricultural producers to:– Ability to adapt: changes in crops/crop rotation, irrigation practices, etc.
– Ability to change which land is irrigated and when– Management of local irrigation system
hank Your for the Seasons Team:
Greg Pohl, DRI
shadri Rajagopal, DRI
ch Niswonger, USGS
stin Huntington, DRI
Staci Emm, UNCE