ENHanCE project (ERA NET Health & Climate in Europe) · ASP.NET 2.0, 3.5 Virtual Earth Confluence...
Transcript of ENHanCE project (ERA NET Health & Climate in Europe) · ASP.NET 2.0, 3.5 Virtual Earth Confluence...
A risk assessment of the impact
of climate change on human
health & well-being, including
potential impact upon animals
Prof. Matthew Baylis1, Dr. K. Marie McIntyre1,
Dr. Cyril Caminade2, Dr. Andy Morse2
1 Liverpool University Climate & Infectious Diseases of
Animals (LUCINDA) research group, School of
Veterinary Science, University of Liverpool
2 Department of Geography, University of Liverpool
ENHanCE project (ERA NET Health & Climate in Europe)
What ERA-EnvHealth Network wanted -
A better understanding of how global warming climatic scenarios for
west European regions will translate over the next few decades into:
(i) direct impacts on soil-water ecosystems
(ii) the indirect effects this will have on human health
(iii) potential for adaptation or mitigation with respect to land use and
water resources
Three sub-themes -
Anthropogenic contaminants, pathogens, toxins in soil-water
Health impact estimation of global warming
Methodological improvements for understanding and modelling
health impacts as a result of changes in soil-water ecosystems
ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages
ENHanCE project –
ERA NET Health & Climate in Europe
ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages
Will most diseases respond to climate change or just a few?
Will there be a net increase or decrease in certain disease burdens?
Will most diseases respond to climate change or just a few?
Is it possible that the diseases ‘that matter most’ are the least likely
to respond to climate change?
How realistic is the threat to human health from climate change’s
future effects on infectious diseases?
WP 1. Identification of pathogens
Who’s included in western Europe?
ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages
Our framework
What are their known climate drivers?Literature search
How will climate change?Regional climate projections
How might they respond to climate change?Risk assessment
What might we try to do about it?Participatory Integrated Assessment
WHAT MIGHT REALLY HAPPEN?Integrated Assessment Scenarios
Which matter most?Decision Support Tool
What pathogens affect or threaten us?
ENHanCEd EID Pathogen Database
ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages
WP1. Identification of all pathogens of
humans and animals that occur in
western Europe and have known climatic
or environmental drivers
WP2. A Decision Support System for
identifying short-listed pathogens of highest
impact on human health and well-being
WP3. Projected climate and
environmental change in the region
WP4. Risk assessment and modelling of the response of high
impact diseases to future climate change
WP6. Integrated Assessment Scenarios of our future health and
well-being in Europe
WP7. Project Communication WP8. Project Management
WP5. Expert opinion of the societal response to changing
disease risk from climate and environmental change:
Participatory Integrated Assessment
Work package
structure
ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages
The bottom-up approach
Start by giving equal weight to all
pathogens, then look for climate drivers
Balanced approach; the highest-impact pathogens may
be largely insensitive to climate change
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Most previous assessments have been top-down, starting
(and often ending) with the premise that a few key vector-
borne pathogens of (usually) humans (malaria, dengue,
yellow fever) need urgent consideration
ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages
(Photo: Nicolai
V. Meyling)
(Photo: Nicolai
V. Meyling)
(Photo: Nicolai
V. Meyling)
ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages
WP1. Identification of all pathogens of humans and animals
division no_entities
Bacteria 122824
Environmental samples 23000
Invertebrates 114239
Mammals 3804
Phages 1745
Plants 162556
Primates 663
Rodents 2617
Synthetic 4505
Unassigned 21
Vertebrates 37795
Viruses 44714
518483
ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages
Removing: Env. Samples, Phages, Plants,
Synthetic, Unassigned = 326656 entities
ftp GUI GUI NCBI 1
st backend ENHanCEd EID 2
nd backend ENHanCEd EID ENHanCEd EID
(removal of plants, phages etc) (ID potentially pathogenic entities)
518483 entities
Pathogenic, potentially pathogenic,
non-pathogenic, free-living or
commensal = ?? entities
ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages
ENHanCEd
Emerging
Infectious Diseases
(EID) database
Sql Server 2005
ASP.NET 2.0, 3.5
Virtual Earth
Confluence
Telerik, yFiles
Matlab
Web-based multi-user
Environment
(web application)
ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages
Items
Pathogens
MechanicalVectors
EnvironmentsPolygonPoints
Exit Material Entry RoutesTime
Intervals
References
Links
Comments
Taxonomy Trees
Hosts
How pathogens are transmitted
When and where host, vector, pathogen & climate
interactions occur
Critical (min, max) boundaries & optimum climate values
Attach ‘evidence’ and rate items
Enable sophisticated and efficient queries
Creator
Updater
Update/Creation Data/Time
Rating
Climate Variables
ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages
‘Squares’
ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages
ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages
WP2: Decision support system for
short-listing pathogens
WP2: Decision support system for short-listing
pathogens
Importance in terms of human health impact, animal health and
welfare, and economic impact across the target region
Humans - for instance number of people affected, Disability
Adjusted Life Years (DALYs)
Animals - for instance economic cost, welfare production losses,
costs of prevention
Stakeholders
Defra, HPA and/or DoH, NHS, NFU, NERC, Veterinary
Medicines Directorate, MOD
FAO, WHO, OIE
ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages
Linking climate and EID data
Temperature
Maximum summer temperature
Minimum summer temperature
Mean summer temperature
Maximum winter temperature
Minimum winter temperature
Mean winter temperature
Days of temperature under 0oC
Days of temperature over 30oC
Mean annual temperature
Annual temperature variation
Day-degrees
Humidity
Minimum relative humidity
Rainfall
Total summer rainfall
Total winter rainfall
Total annual rainfall
Summer rainy days
Winter rainy days
Seq. days no rain
Seq. days rain
Wind speed
Maximum wind speed
Mean wind speed
Seasonality
Known seasonality
Plots of seasonal patterns
ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages
ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages
Pathogen survival outside host
Pathogen rate of development outside host
Pathogen development rate in host
Vector biting rate
Vector survival rate
Prof. Matthew Baylis
Dr. Jenny Newman
Mrs. Susan Baker
Dr. Andy Morse
Dr. Cyril Caminade
Prof. Malcolm Bennett
Dr. Helen Clough
Dr. Christian Setzkorn
Department of GeographyProf. Pim Martens
Dr. Maud Huynens
Ms. Su-Mia Akin
Dr. Serge Morand
Ms. Agnes Waret
Dr. John R. Stephenson
Dr. Steve Leach
Mr. Jolyon Medlock
Dr. Peter Stevenson
Prof. Ed Maltby
Mr. Tom West
Acknowledgements