Engineering Thermoplastics & Intermediatesorbichem.com/userfiles/APIC...
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Engineering Thermoplastics & Intermediates
Keiji Wakatsuki
Chemicals Committee Meeting at APIC 2014
Pattaya, 16 May 2014
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APIC 2014ENGINEERING THERMOPLASTIC MARKETS & END-USES
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
PA 6, PA 66
Polyacetal
ABS/SAN
PBT
Polycarbonate Automotive, optical media, consumer goods
Automotive, consumer goods, electrical
Automotive, electronics, consumer goods
Automotive, electronics, fibre-optic cable
Computers, electronics, home appliances
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
1,000 Metric Tons
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2014
WORLD POLYAMIDE 6 & 66 ENGINEERING RESIN CAPACITY & DEMAND
PA6Capacity
PA66Capacity
PA6Demand
PA66 Demand
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1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500Ja
n-09
Apr
-09
Jul-0
9O
ct-0
9Ja
n-10
Apr
-10
Jul-1
0O
ct-1
0Ja
n-11
Apr
-11
Jul-1
1O
ct-1
1Ja
n-12
Apr
-12
Jul-1
2O
ct-1
2Ja
n-13
Apr
-13
Jul-1
3O
ct-1
3Ja
n-14
Dollars per Ton
US DomesticContract
EU DomesticContract
ChinaImport (cfr)
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2014
POLYAMIDE 6 ENGINEERING RESIN PRICES
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-100
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100
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400
500
600
700
800
900
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Dollars per Ton
West EuropeDDP
AsiaCFR
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2014
PA 6 RESIN MARGINS over 1.02 x CAPROLACTAM
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2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2017 2020
Market Over-Supply
1,000 Metric Tons
N America
S America
W Europe
E Europe
S&SE Asia
NE Asia
China
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2014
CAPROLACTAM CAPACITY GROWTH
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Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2014
WORLD POLYCARBONATE RESINCAPACITY & DEMAND1,000 Metric Tons
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
ROWCapacity
ChinaCapacity
Demand
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2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500Ja
n-09
Apr
-09
Jul-0
9O
ct-0
9Ja
n-10
Apr
-10
Jul-1
0O
ct-1
0Ja
n-11
Apr
-11
Jul-1
1O
ct-1
1Ja
n-12
Apr
-12
Jul-1
2O
ct-1
2Ja
n-13
Apr
-13
Jul-1
3O
ct-1
3Ja
n-14
Dollars per Ton
US DomesticContract
EU DomesticContract
China Domestic
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2014
POLYCARBONATE RESIN PRICES
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APIC 2014
POLYCARBONATE RAW MATERIAL DEVELOPMENTS
• US Gulf Coast
� Benzene – Record high spot prices; contract above $5/gal
� Propylene – Tighter market supplies keeping prices elevated
• Northwest Europe
� Benzene – Average Q1 2014 contract more than €1000/ton
� Propylene – Contract prices hold firm at €1100/ton in Q1
• China/Asia
� Benzene – Spot, contract prices in $1200-1300/ton range
� Propylene – Prices close to $1300-1400/ton in Q1 2014
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
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-300
-200
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0
100
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300
400
500
600
700
800
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Margin = [Bisphenol A - (0.88 x Phenol + 0.29 x Acetone)]
Dollars per Ton
United States
West Europe
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2014
BISPHENOL A MARGINS over PRECURSORS
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Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2014
WORLD POLYACETAL PRODUCTION CAPACITY
15%
16%
9%
1%
16%7%
9%
5%
19%
3%
0%
Total = 1.08 Million Metric Tons
2010
9%
11%
5%
1%
10%
4%
11%
6%
33%
7%
3%
Total = 1.7 Million Metric Tons
2015United States
Germany
Netherlands
Poland
Japan
Taiwan
South Korea
Thailand
China
Malaysia
Saudi Arabia
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4,000Ja
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ct-0
9Ja
n-10
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0Ja
n-11
Apr
-11
Jul-1
1O
ct-1
1Ja
n-12
Apr
-12
Jul-1
2O
ct-1
2Ja
n-13
Apr
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Jul-1
3O
ct-1
3Ja
n-14
Dollars per Ton
US DomesticContract
EU DomesticContract
China Domestic
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2014
POLYACETAL COPOLYMER RESIN PRICES
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100
200
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400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Jan-
09A
pr-0
9Ju
l-09
Oct
-09
Jan-
10A
pr-1
0Ju
l-10
Oct
-10
Jan-
11A
pr-1
1Ju
l-11
Oct
-11
Jan-
12A
pr-1
2Ju
l-12
Oct
-12
Jan-
13A
pr-1
3Ju
l-13
Oct
-13
Jan-
14A
pr-1
4
Dollars per Ton
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2014
METHANOL CONTRACT PRICESvs BRENT and HENRY HUB
Asia
N. America
W. Europe
Brent
Henry Hub
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2017 20200
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400
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1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
1,000 Metric Tons
W&E Europe
N America
ME/Africa
S&SE Asia
NE Asia
China
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2014
WORLD PBT RESIN CAPACITY GROWTH
2014 Capacity: 1.8 Million Tons
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APIC 2014
POLYBUTYLENE TEREPHTHALATE
• Global PBT market ‘regionalised’ in terms of virgin resin as compounded material makes up large percentage of import/export volumes.
• PBT resin in US market mostly sold as compounded material. Monthly pricing prevalent for compounded volumes.
• European market contract prices relatively flat in 2013-2014. Spot material from Asia makes little impact.
• China domestic and import business typically concluded on spot volumes due to over-supply.
• China import prices trended lower during 2013
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
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Electrical33%
IT12%
Other16%
Automotive39%
2013 960,000 Metric Tons
APIC 2014
WORLD PBT DEMAND BY END-USE
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
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22%
19%
3%
1%24%
31%
<1%
Total = 1.7 Million Metric Tons
SAN 2014
1%
1%
35%
36%
9%
9%8% 1%
Total = 10.1 Million Metric Tons
ABS 2014N America
S America
W Europe
E Europe
ME & A
S & SE Asia
NE Asia
China
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2014
WORLD ABS/SAN PRODUCTION CAPACITY
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Jan-0
9Apr
-09
Jul-0
9O
ct-09
Jan-1
0Apr
-10
Jul-1
0O
ct-10
Jan-1
1Apr
-11
Jul-1
1O
ct-11
Jan-1
2Apr
-12
Jul-1
2O
ct-12
Jan-1
3Apr
-13
Jul-1
3O
ct-13
Jan-1
4
Dollars per Ton
Acrylonitrile
Butadiene
Styrene
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2014
ASIAN ABS RAW MATERIAL PRICES
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APIC 2014
‘GREEN’ ENGINEERING THERMOPLASTICS
Slowly But Surely
• Polyamide 11 – Produced from castor oil by Arkema.
• Polyamide 12 – Evonik operating pilot plant producing bio-lauric acid from palm kernel oil.
• Bio-PBT – Lanxess, Toray using Genomatica's bio-based 1,4 butanediol as feedstock.
• ‘DURABIO’ – Isosorbide-based plastic manufactured by Mitsubishi Chemical Corp. Touted as alternative to polycarbonate.
• Widespread use in Engineering Thermoplastics still some years away.
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
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APIC 2014
SUMMARY/CONCLUSIONS
• Engineering Thermoplastic polymer growth outlook positive as substitution for metal in automobiles, for example, needed to meet fuel efficiency targets.
• Costs for hydrocarbon based raw materials still sensitive to energy market volatility.
• Over-capacity in some key raw material markets limiting margin growth for the short-term in ETP markets.
• Concerns about growth rates in China weighing down market sentiment.
• Development of ‘green’ ETP products continuing.
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
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