Engelder Slides, debate with Ingraffea Jan 2013 Dundee NY
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Transcript of Engelder Slides, debate with Ingraffea Jan 2013 Dundee NY
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7/29/2019 Engelder Slides, debate with Ingraffea Jan 2013 Dundee NY
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Clark67.jpg
1962Terry & the Finger Lakes
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Route 414:
Driving from Raceway to Watkins Glen
1992Terry & the Finger Lakes
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2011
Taughannock Falls:
Filming of PBS-TVs
America Revealed: Electric Nation
Terry & the Finger Lakes
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If Im not right:
shale gas will cause an
investment loss of
untold billions ofdollars?
If Im right: shale
gas will cause a delay
in developing
renewable energy and
add more carbon tothe atmosphere*?
How much gas?
* Note lack of concern about H2O
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Tony Ingraffea with Yoko Ono and son.
Cornell
(NY)
Penn State
(PA)
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Dr. Pielke, a political scientist at the
University of Colorado, calls it iron lawof climate policy: When theres a
conflict between policies promoting
economic growth and policies
restricting carbon dioxide, economic
growth wins every time.
People will make trade-offs, but the one thing that wont be
traded off is keeping the lights on at reasonable cost, hesays. Given the reluctance of affluent Europeans to make
sacrifices, what are the odds of persuading billions of people
in poorer countries to pay more for energy today in return
for a cooler climate at the end of the century?
JOHN TIERNEY, New York Times, January 16, 2012
Iron Law of Climate Policy
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There are three (3) stakeholders with a fondness for their land, which
in some cases has been owned by their families for generations.
This view
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The third stakeholder
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Area Industry & commerce:
A fourth stakeholder
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The paradox is that wine may depend on brine!
Fracked gas (= brine)
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A moral ambiguity: Fracked gas (= brine)
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Its that type of sacrifice that were talking about. Its a necessary sacrifice. Engelder
said he believes Pennsylvanians must sacrifice to maintain their lifestyle. If we want
to talk about sacrifice, then we look to Dimock, he said, referring to the best-known
Pennsylvania site for drilling accidents. This is a very complex industry and there will
be accidents, he said. People expect that level of risk in automobiles.
The Necessary Sacrifice Interview:
i.e., Not Pinedale, UT:
16 pads/mile2
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US auto fatalities
Year DeathsVehicleMiles
Billions
Deaths
/100million
vehicle
miles
PopulationFraction ofPopulation
1971 52,542 1,178 4.46 207,660,677 0.00025302
1972 54,589 1,259 4.33 209,896,021 0.00026008
1973 54,052 1,313 4.12 211,908,788 0.00025507
xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx
2008 37,261 2,974 1.25 303,824,640 0.000122640
2009 33,808 306,700,000 0.000110737
2010 32,885 1.11 308,745,538
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_motor_vehicle_deaths_in_U.S._by_year
RISK
58,282 KIA
during
Vietnam
War
A
B
Myth #1: Industry does not learn how to reduce risk
Leaking wells are as common now as 20 years ago
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US auto fatalities
Year DeathsVehicleMiles
Billions
Deaths
/100million
vehicle
miles
PopulationFraction ofPopulation
1971 52,542 1,178 4.46 207,660,677 0.00025302
1972 54,589 1,259 4.33 209,896,021 0.00026008
1973 54,052 1,313 4.12 211,908,788 0.00025507
xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx
2008 37,261 2,974 1.25 303,824,640 0.000122640
2009 33,808 306,700,000 0.000110737
2010 32,885 1.11 308,745,538
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_motor_vehicle_deaths_in_U.S._by_year
RISK
58,282 KIA
during
Vietnam
War
A
B
A
B
Sustained CasingVent Flows
http://www.psehealthyenergy.org/
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Boudinot 23968-A
31-123-22941
6000
Trenton/Black River
Utica
Myth #2: There are no industrial well pads in the Finger Lakes Region
In fact, infrastructure is extensive for Trenton-Black River Production
http://www.energyindepth.org/finger-lakes-region-has-been-developing-oil-gas-for-decades/
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Myth #3: Industry is still clueless after doing high volume HF 20,000+ times!
PA currently has > 6,391 active Marcellus wells
http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/local/marcellusshale/powdermill-compiles-list-of-pa-shale-wells-637445/
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Kevin Begos, AP, August 17, 2012
Mann called it ironic that the shift
from coal to gas has helped bring the
U.S. closer to meeting some of the
greenhouse gas targets in the 1997
Kyoto treaty on global warming. The
gas boom is actually one of a number
of reasons for cautious optimism,
Mann said. Theres a lot of doom andgloom out there. It is important to
point out that there is still time to
address global warning.
Myth #4: Natural gas is not a clean fuel
EPA will require green completions by 2015
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New England Electricity Generation
Wind
requires
backup!
The International Energy Agency said the U.S.
has cut carbon dioxide emissions more than any
other country over the last six years. Kevin Begos, AP,August 17, 2012
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This is shale gas pushing back
coal over a five-year period!
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Buffalo NY = average sunshine 6.047 hour each day.
Reliability factor is 0.252
47 kW in 3,968 ft2
------ Scales to 1.938 acres/MW(not utility-scale generation)
Installed by
Renewable Rochester
with subsidies from
NYSERDA and tax
incentives.
By trading with the
grid (NYSEG), panels
provide 80% of
Lakewoods needs!
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Greenidge is a 161 MW coal-fired electric power plant on a 153 acre site (24/7)
For utility-scale electricity generation, photovoltaic systems require 3 to 10 acres
per MW of generating capacity. So, 485 to 1610 acres of solar panels required!
But the sun does not shine 24/7!
AES Greenidge
Bentek says that power companies plan to retire 175 coal-fired plants
over the next five years.Kevin Begos, AP, August 17, 2012
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1,924 to 6,389 acres of solar panels to replace Greenidge on a 1:1 basis
Solar reliability in western NYS is 25.2%
On a 1:1 replacement of Greenidge withsolar panels could require up to 3% of the
area of Yates County!
This is the scenery that will greet tourists
forever!
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Dutch Hill/Cohocton Wind Farm
50 turbines125 MW
The development of wind power has two main problems. First, the winddoes not blow all the time, so there must be backup power plants (often
fueled by natural gas) ready to turn on instantly if the wind slackens.
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August 2008
November 2012
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If we can manage but
not eliminate the risks
of drilling in the short
term, is it worthexposing a winery along
Seneca Lake to some
level of risk in order to
reduce a perhapsgreater level of risk to a
wheat farm in eastern
Kansas or a fishery in
Washington State
or a retired cop on
a pension in
Staten Island?
A Moral Ambiguity?Or
A Necessary Sacrifice?
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A i t
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Fracking is immoral
Seamus McGraw, author, on seeing this bumper
sticker on a Finger Lakes car:
I wish I had such moral certitude!
A precise answer to
the wrong question:
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Dimock
Water
Moral certitude allows people
to make statements like this:
Fracking kills, and it doesnt
just kill us, Ms. Ono said. It
kills the land, nature and,
eventually, the whole world.
This type of statement is
irresponsible!
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Engelder desklog #41, page 132
I love small towns like these, Meredith gushed from the back seat. My other three
passengers also members of the Ithaca College club Frack Off murmured in agreement
Moral certitude at the collegiate level!