Energy Use and Sources in USA FORS 8020 Bioeconomy Seminar Dale Greene - 2009.
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Transcript of Energy Use and Sources in USA FORS 8020 Bioeconomy Seminar Dale Greene - 2009.
Energy Use and Sources in USA
FORS 8020
Bioeconomy Seminar
Dale Greene - 2009
Energy Uses
In our economy today, we consume energy in three basis ways: To produce electricity As liquid fuels to power our vehicles To produce heat for home or
industrial processes (heat & steam) We also use petroleum and natural
gas as raw material feedstocks for chemicals, fertilizer, and plastics.
US Energy Sources – 2003
39
23
8
24
6
Petroleum
Coal
Nuclear
Natural Gas
Renewables
US Energy Use by Source
Energy Sources & Consumption 2004 US energy
consumption, quadrillion BTUs
Source vs Use Electricity – Coal,
gas, nuclear Transportation –
oil Renewables –
electricity and industry
US Electricity Sources
Base Load Plants – supply power at all times, amount varies relatively little. Coal, Nuclear
Peak Load Plants – supply power as needed to grid. May not run at all. Natural Gas, Hydro
US Petroleum Sources & Use
Transportation Fuels
96% is oil based (most gasoline and diesel, some natural gas and LP).
Remainder is a mix of ethanol, bio-diesel, or other fuels (growing).
Consumer fuel market is competitive, consumer self-serve, and designed for consumer convenience.
Designed around gasoline usage.
Oil Prices
OPEC Share of World Crude
Source: OPEC
OPEC Share of World Crude
Source: OPEC
Top Oil Consumers
United States – 20.7 China – 6.4 Japan – 5.4
Millions of barrels per day, 2004.Source: Energy Information Agency
Hubbert’s Peak
Oil supplies are limited.
Many think our production has already peaked.
Prices will stay high and perhaps increase further – spurring more exploration or substitutes.
M. King Hubbert, a geophysicist suggested the above trendline in 1956.
Natural Gas
Primarily methane – CH4 (70-90%)
Easily pipelined, widely used.
Most peak load electric plants built in recent years use natural gas.
Cleanest burning fossil fuel.
Natural Gas Sources
Units are M cubic feet
Natural Gas Uses
Natural Gas
Much more abundant than petroleum, but supply is finite.
Difficult to import or export unless in liquified natural gas (LNG) form.
An important transition fuel between reliance on fossil fuels and renewables.
Nuclear Power
Base-load electricity generation. CO2 neutral – no emissions. Use nuclear fission – uranium-235. Breeder reactors turn uranium-238 into
plutonium-239 – potential abundant source of energy.
Clean, safe energy. So why aren’t we using it more?
Nuclear Power
Fear. The movie China Syndrome was popular
in 1979 when the Three Mile Island incident occurred.
US construction of nuclear plants was stopped cold by public opinion.
The Washington Public Power Supply scandal further hardened public opinion.
Then Chernobyl occurred in 1986.
Nuclear Power
104 units in the US. No new ones in over 25 years. All increase in electricity based on fossil
fuels instead CO2
Widely used in Europe and Asia. Probably has to be a part of any energy
landscape that reduces carbon emissions. Disposal of radioactive waste is a key
issue and one that we have delayed acting upon as a country.
Summary
Fossil fuels have finite supplies. Oil is particularly in short supply. Natural gas is more abundant. Coal is plentiful. All of these contribute to carbon
loading in the atmosphere. Nuclear is not popular.
Renewable Sources – 6% of total
47
45
5 2 1
Biomass
Hydro
Geothermal
Wind
Solar
Biomass Sources (2.8% of total)
75%
25%
Forests
Agriculture
Key Issue
Can the US use biomass to replace 30% of petroleum consumption by 2030? This translates to: 5% of power consumption 20% of transportation fuels 25% of chemicals
This would represent a 5-fold increase over 2003 consumption levels of 190 million tons (forestry and agriculture combined).
US Biomass Consumption 2003
Biomass Consumption MM Dry Tons/Year
Forest Industry
wood residues 44
pulping liquors 52
Urban wood/food/process residues 35
Fuelwood (home/commercial/utility) 35
Biofuels 18
Bioproducts 6
Total 190
Forest Biomass75% of current biomass use
Primary Logging residues from logging & land clearing Fuel reduction treatments in high risk areas Fuelwood extracted from forestlandsSecondary Primary processing mill wastes Secondary processing mill wastes Pulping liquorsTertiary Urban wood waste – C&D, limbs, trash
Agricultural Biomass25% of current biomass use
Primary Residues from major crops – corn & grains Grains (corn and soybeans) Algae Perennial grasses Perennial woody crops (ag or forestry?)Secondary Animal manures Food/feed processing residuesTertiary Municipal solid waste (MSW), post-consumer
residues, and landfill gases
Potential Annual Biomass from Forests (368 million tons)
Assumptions: Unroaded areas were excluded. Environmentally sensitive areas were excluded. Equipment recovery limitations considered. Two types – (1) conventional forest products
and (2) biomass for bioenergy/bioproducts. 1.6x increase from 143 MM tons used in
2003.
Potentially Available Forest Biomass
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Logging & LandClearing Residue
Fuel Treatments
Fuelwood
Industry WoodWastes
Pulping Liquors
Urban Wood Waste
Million dry tons / year
Existing Use Unexploited Growth
Source: EIA 2004.
Potential from Agriculture(3 scenarios)
Scenario 1 – Baseline – 194 million tons available 20% of this is captured today.
Scenario 2 – Realistic? – 423-597 million tons available Corn yields increase 25-50% Planted acreage projected for 2014 (no land use change) No soybean residues Collect 60-75% of crop residues 50% of biomass produced on CRP lands is available (???) 75 million dry tons of manure Crop residues account for 65-75% of total biomass
Potential from Agriculture(3 scenarios)
Scenario 3 – Aggressive? – 581-998 million tons available Scenario 2 plus…. Soybeans yield a third more biomass and it is captured. Up to 60 million acres converted to perennial crops
• Short rotation woody crops increase from 0.1 to 5.0 million acres with 25% used for bioproducts and remainder for forest products - ?
• Other 55 million acres is perennial grass, 90% used for bioproducts Crop residues account for 50%, perennial crops for 30-40% of
total biomass With current market prices, farmers are not taking CRP lands out
of the program to plant them in row crops again.
Potentially Available Agricultural BiomassPerennial Crops Assume Major CRP Land Use Change
0 200 400 600 800 1000
Current
#2 Moderate
#2 High
#3 Moderate
#3 High
Million dry tons / year
Crop Residues Grains to biofuels Process Residues Perennial Crops
Potential Annual Biomass from Agriculture (998 million tons)
Assumptions: Crop yields increased 50%. Soybean residue:grain ratio increased to 2:1. 75% of residues can be harvested. Cropland managed with no-till methods. 55 million acres dedicated to bioenergy crops. All manure in excess of allowable soil amendment
levels used for bioenergy. 21x increase from 48 MM tons used in 2003. 5x increase from amount available in 2003.
Annual Biomass 2003 Production vs 2030 Potential
142
368
48
998
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2003 2030
An
nu
al M
M T
ons
Forest Agriculture
Summary
The potential for using substantially more biomass is there on a sustainable level.
Forestry projections without fuel treatments gives ~310 million tons – 2x today’s level of usage.
Agricultural projections of 400-600 million tons may be achievable – 8-12x today’s level of usage.
Sustained higher prices for competing fossil fuel feedstocks will be critical to capturing a significant amount of this potential.
Energy Independence in Brazil:Lessons for the United States
Significant expansion of domestic oil production
State-owned oil company required to sell ethanol at subsidized prices
20% ethanol mix mandate Flex fuel vehicles = 73%
of new cars sold today 48% of fuel used by
gasoline cars is ethanol Diesel is more popular Scale differences (chart)
The New Petroleum 1999 – Senator Lugar and former CIA Director Woolsey Energy security = national security Urge switch to cellulosic fuels to reduce reliance on OPEC Big share (1/3) of US trade deficit is for oil purchases Requires modest changes to vehicles and infrastructure Widespread availability of flex-fuel vehicles also needed Compares current technology to oil refining in 1900 Ethanol – 69% energy content, 115% octane rating, lower
vapor pressure when 22%+ mix Urge Federal R&D spending, tax code incentives for
cellulosic ethanol & FFVs, govt-industry partnership
Discussion