Energy transitions in the Agincourt site in rural South Africa

Wayne Twine & Mark CollinsonUniversity of the Witwatersrand

Background• Densely populated rural areas (former Apartheid

homelands)• Historical inequity in access to services• Wood biomass = dominant cooking energy• Democratic change (1994): national

Reconstruction & Development Plan • Roll-out of rural electrification to rural areas

(national energy grid) – ongoing• Free basic electricity allocation to rural poor

(50 kWh/month)

Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS)

• Geographically-defined sections of impoverished communities• A standardised, population-based information system • Regular repeated visits - collection of longitudinal population,

health and socio-economic data

• A versatile platform for policy evaluation and intervention testing • Population data linked to service utilisation: health, schools, civil reg.

Agincourt HDSSMpumalanga ProvinceStarted in 1992

Africa Centre HDSSKwaZulu-Natal ProvinceStarted in 2000

Dikgale HDSSLimpopo ProvinceStarted in 1996

Pop: 35 000

Pop: 100 000

Pop: 111 000

4.5 million person years of observation

Agincourt sub-district, Bushbuckridge,Mpumalanga Province

21 villages, 11,000 households, 70,000 people (1992-2006)28 villages, 16,000 households, 90,000 people (from 2007)32 villages, >100,000 (from 2013)Rural, densely settled former Bantustan (Gazankulu)31% Mozambican immigrants (self-settled former refugee)

Structure of HDSS data

• Core tables– Objects (individual, household, location)– Events (births, deaths, in-migration, out-migration)– Episodes (memberships and residences)– Observations (an interview at a specific date)

• Modules (status observations)– Individual or household

• Social relationships– Mother father, marital status, HH head Relation

Core Tables• Object Tables

– Individuals– Locations– Households

• Event Table– Deaths– Births– Pregnancies– InMigrations– OutMigrations

• Observations

• Episode tables– Residences

• Person at a geographic location• Can start with a Enrollment(1992),

birth or in migration• Can end with death or out migration

– Memberships• Person’s membership to a household• Can start with a Enrollment(1992),

birth, in migration or change of household head

• Can end with death or out migration or change of household head

– UnionEpisodes• Person in union with one and only one

other person

Modules• Status observations (at different observation dates)• Household Status Observation Modules

– Asset Status– Food Security Status– Child Grant Forms

• Individual Status Observation Modules– Child Grants– Cough Status– Education Status– Health Care Utilization– Labour Status– Stroke Status– ID Document Status– Temporary Migration

• Not run every year

Status observation modules

MODULES

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Education

Labour

Household assets

Temp. migration

Child care grants

Health care utilis.

Food security

Physical, cognitive

Father support

Vital documents

National ID

• Nested research projects based on sample– SUCSES study (Sustainability in Communal Socio-

Ecological Systems)– Longitudinal household livelihoods panel study– N=590 households, 9 settlements in AHDSS– 2010-2014– Annual survey including:

• Assets, income & expenditure (socio-economic status)• Natural resource use (use of fuelwood)

Energy use in Agincourt

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Agincourt

Croquetlawn

Cunningmore A

Cunningmore B

Huntington

Ireagh A

Ireagh B

Justicia A

Kildare A

Kildare B

Lillydale A

Lillydale B

Newington B

Newington C

Somerset A

Xanthia

Rholane

Kildare C

Justicia B

Somerset B

Khaya Lami

Croquet Lawn B

Belfast

Dumphries A

Dumphries B

Dumphries C

Ireagh C

Somerset C

MP Stream

Rolle C

Kumani

Thulamahashe A

Proportion of households NOT using electricity for lighting – by village

7.17 7.19 6.44 7.52 5.75

13.99 17.0923.79

16.1724.90

15.1913.85

13.77

14.85

13.60

63.65 61.8755.99

61.4655.75

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Prop

ortio

n of

hou

shol

ds (n

=586

-522

)

Year

>1x/week

1-4 x/month

<1x/month

never

Frequency of use of fuelwood in the last 12 months (SUCSES panel study, Agincourt HDSS)

A more nuanced view of fuelwood use from household panel data

Village-level fuelwood and electricity use characteristics in 2009. (Matsika, R., Erasmus, B.F.N. & Twine, W.C. (2013) Double jeopardy: The dichotomy of fuelwood use in rural South Africa. Energy Policy, 52:716–725.)

Conclusion• Access to electricity:

– Does not guarantee rapid transition away from biomass– Does not result in mutually exclusive energy systems

• Health & environmental costs of fuelwood use remain important development issues despite wide-spread electrification

• Economic implications of transition from wood to coal-generated electricity:– Displacing health burden of energy use elsewhere?– Additional demand on an over-burdened supply system

• Opportunity for more nuanced investigation of complex energy transitions

<http://www.agincourt.co.za/index.php/data>