© OECD/IEA 2014 © OECD/IEA 2014

Energy Technology Perspectives : Planning the Energy Transition

Energy Day

Lima, Peru, 5 December 2014

Jean-François Gagne Energy Technology Policy Division Head

International Energy Agency

© OECD/IEA 2014

Where is the world heading?

Where do we need to go?

How do we get there?

IEA Energy Technology Activities

© OECD/IEA 2014

Energy’s carbon intensity is stuck AND we need to decouple economic growth from energy use

The world faces a challenge

© OECD/IEA 2014

© OECD/IEA 2014

...and we to have the tools to develop a strategy and be proactive.

Energy Technology Perspectives A transformation is needed…

© OECD/IEA 2014

Near-term Impacts Longer-term Needs

© OECD/IEA 2014

…and it is cost effective to make the transition

Investment in our future pays off…

© OECD/IEA 2014

…The political will to make meaningful progress at a global scale has yet to be demonstrated

Tracking Clean Energy Progress We are not on track…

© OECD/IEA 2014

© OECD/IEA 2014

• Generation today: • Fossil fuels: 68% • Renewables: 20%

Global electricity generation by technology

Electricity Generation: a share reversal

• Generation 2DS 2050: • Renewables: 65% • Fossil fuels: 20%

© OECD/IEA 2014

Innovation as a sustainability engine

Cost reductions and performance improvements must be considered when deciding on future actions

© OECD/IEA 2014

Scale of Innovation capacity needs

Deployment rates will exceed any recent trends, and will take place in new environments

Non-OECD OECD

© OECD/IEA 2014

Also need to innovate on Energy Demand

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

GtC

O2

Low-demand

Energy efficiency Fuel and feedstock switching Recycling Innovative processes

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050G

tCO

2

High-demand

Direct industrial CO2 emission reductions between 6DS and 2DS by technology

Industrial innovative low-carbon processes become critical to achieve long-term emission reductions

© OECD/IEA 2014

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

2012 2025 2035 2045

GtC

O2

Low-demand

China India Other developing Asia Non-OECD Latin America Africa and Middle East Economies in transition OECD

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

2012 2025 2035 2045

GtC

O2

High-demand

Shifting landscape of Innovation

Non-OECD countries will need capacity to deploy large amounts of new technologies and processes

© OECD/IEA 2014

A complex system where inputs and outputs are difficult to measure.

Setting innovation priorities Highly complex and uncertain

© OECD/IEA 2014

Supporting Energy Innovation: The right policy at the right time

© OECD/IEA 2014

Supporting Energy Innovation: The right policy at the right time

© OECD/IEA 2014

IEA Technology Roadmaps Mapping where we need to go …

2009 2011 2010 2012 2013

Low-Carbon Technology Roadmaps

2014

2015 •Hydrogen •Smart Grids

© OECD/IEA 2014

Goal to achieve

Milestones to be met

Gaps to be filled

Actions to overcome gaps and barriers

What and when things need to be achieved

... By building consensus among all stakeholders

Low-Carbon Technology Roadmaps

© OECD/IEA 2014

+ EC + OPEC

+ UNIDO

+ITER

+ 61 Private companies (13 located outside

IEA region)

IEA’s Energy Technology Network

More than 6,000 scientists and experts Representing 500 government agencies, research organisations,

universities, energy companies, industries, businesses, and consultants

Over 1,400 projects completed to date © OECD/IEA 2014

© OECD/IEA 2014 © OECD/IEA 2014

•Energy Security

•Environmental Protection

•Economic Growth

•Engagement Worldwide

© OECD/IEA 2014

ETP 2014 ETP 2015 ETP 2016

Part 1. Setting the Scene Global Outlook, Tracking Clean Energy Progress

Part 2. Driving the Change (Thematic Focus)

The age of electrification

Energy Technology and Innovation impacts on Climate change mitigation

Urban Energy Systems

Partner Country

India China Mexico

ETP Publication Programme