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  • Energy System Transition: Megatrends, disruptors, future markets and business models

    Pre- feasibility Study on Business Opportunities for Women in a Changing Energy Value Chain in West Africa

    Situation Analysis Report

    DRAFT

    With technical assistance from: Azam Pasha, CEO, Jadenex Technologies FZCO

    With funding from:

  • Page 1 of 137

    The next technology revolution is set to happen in the clean energy sector. If the existing barriers

    are not addressed now, and women given the support to be engaged in the sector, it would be a

    missed opportunity not just for women but for the achievement of an inclusive and sustainable

    development.

    Mahama Kappiah, Executive Director ECREEE, Foreword from Situation Analysis Report on

    Gender and Energy Issues in the ECOWAS Member States (2015)

  • Page 2 of 137

    Table of Contents

    Acknowledgments .................................................................................................................................. 4

    List of Abbreviations and Acronyms ................................................................................................... 8

    List of Figures ......................................................................................................................................... 9

    List of Tables ........................................................................................................................................ 11

    Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................. 12

    1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 14

    2. Methodology & Plan ..................................................................................................................... 16

    16

    2.1. Research Design......................................................................................................................... 17

    2.2. Sampling ...................................................................................................................................... 17

    2.2.1. Country selection .................................................................................................................. 17

    2.2.2. Stakeholder selection ............................................................................................................ 20

    2.3. Questionnaire Design ................................................................................................................ 20

    3. Market Research and Analysis ................................................................................................... 21

    3.1. Data Collection ............................................................................................................................. 21

    3.2. Data Analysis & Interpretation .................................................................................................... 23

    3.3. Presentation and generating the report ..................................................................................... 23

    3.4. Limitations .................................................................................................................................... 23

    4. Energy System Transition in West Africa .................................................................................. 24

    4.1. Megatrends in the Energy Sector ............................................................................................... 24

    4.1.1. Technological breakthrough ................................................................................................ 24

    4.1.1.1. Electrification ..................................................................................................................... 25

    4.1.1.2. Decentralization ................................................................................................................. 27

    4.1.1.3. Digitalization Infrastructure .............................................................................................. 31

    4.1.1.4. Innovation .......................................................................................................................... 33

    4.1.2. Climate change and resource scarcity ............................................................................... 37

    4.1.3. Demographic changes .......................................................................................................... 47

    4.1.4. The shift in economic power ................................................................................................ 49

    4.1.5. Accelerating urbanization .................................................................................................... 56

    4.2. Disruption Factors ....................................................................................................................... 57

    4.2.1. Customer behavior ................................................................................................................ 57

    4.2.2. Competition ............................................................................................................................ 59

    Figure 58: Global Primary Energy Supply (Biomass) ....................................................................... 59

    4.2.3. Production Service Model .................................................................................................... 62

    4.2.4. Distribution channels ............................................................................................................ 64

    4.2.5. Government & regulation ..................................................................................................... 65

    4.3. Future market models .................................................................................................................. 67

    4.3.1. Green command and control ............................................................................................... 68

    4.3.2. Ultra-distributed generation ................................................................................................. 72

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  • Page 3 of 137

    4.3.3. Local energy systems ........................................................................................................... 73

    4.3.4. Regional super grid ............................................................................................................... 75

    4.4. Inferences from the Secondary Research and Analysis .......................................................... 75

    5. Primary Research and Analysis ................................................................................................. 77

    5.1. Purpose ......................................................................................................................................... 79

    5.2. Business Model ............................................................................................................................ 88

    Figure 97: Gender Gap Ranking (Africa) ............................................................................................ 94

    5.3. Operating model/capabilities ...................................................................................................... 95

    5.4. Human resources model ............................................................................................................. 96

    5.5. Financial performance ................................................................................................................. 98

    5.6. Business Model Evolution ........................................................................................................ 110

    5.7. Transformations necessary for Women Entrepreneurs......................................................... 114

    6. Recommendations ..................................................................................................................... 118

    7. Selection of Four Feasibility Studies ....................................................................................... 120

    References .......................................................................................................................................... 127

    13. Appendices ................................................................................................................................. 131

    Annex-1: Questionnaire ..................................................................................................................... 131

    Annex-2: Energy Production & Consumption, 2017 ....................................................................... 134

    Annex-3: Total Installed Cost for Utility Scale Solar PV Projects and the global average, 2010-2017

    135

    Annex-4: Total Installed cost ranges and weighted averages for on-shore wind farms (by

    country/region, 2010-2016) ................................................................................................................ 136

    Annex-5: Total installed costs of bio-mass-fired generation technologies (by country/region)136

    Annex-6: Levelized cost of electricity by capacity factor of bio-energy fired projects (2000-2016)137

    Annex-7: Cost of Various Cooking Techn