Energy System Transition: Megatrends, disruptors, future markets and business models

Pre- feasibility Study on Business Opportunities for Women in a Changing Energy Value Chain in West Africa

Situation Analysis Report

DRAFT

With technical assistance from: Azam Pasha, CEO, Jadenex Technologies FZCO

With funding from:

Page 1 of 137

The next technology revolution is set to happen in the clean energy sector. If the existing barriers

are not addressed now, and women given the support to be engaged in the sector, it would be a

missed opportunity not just for women but for the achievement of an inclusive and sustainable

development.

Mahama Kappiah, Executive Director ECREEE, Foreword from Situation Analysis Report on

Gender and Energy Issues in the ECOWAS Member States (2015)

Page 2 of 137

Table of Contents

Acknowledgments .................................................................................................................................. 4

List of Abbreviations and Acronyms ................................................................................................... 8

List of Figures ......................................................................................................................................... 9

List of Tables ........................................................................................................................................ 11

Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................. 12

1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 14

2. Methodology & Plan ..................................................................................................................... 16

16

2.1. Research Design......................................................................................................................... 17

2.2. Sampling ...................................................................................................................................... 17

2.2.1. Country selection .................................................................................................................. 17

2.2.2. Stakeholder selection ............................................................................................................ 20

2.3. Questionnaire Design ................................................................................................................ 20

3. Market Research and Analysis ................................................................................................... 21

3.1. Data Collection ............................................................................................................................. 21

3.2. Data Analysis & Interpretation .................................................................................................... 23

3.3. Presentation and generating the report ..................................................................................... 23

3.4. Limitations .................................................................................................................................... 23

4. Energy System Transition in West Africa .................................................................................. 24

4.1. Megatrends in the Energy Sector ............................................................................................... 24

4.1.1. Technological breakthrough ................................................................................................ 24

4.1.1.1. Electrification ..................................................................................................................... 25

4.1.1.2. Decentralization ................................................................................................................. 27

4.1.1.3. Digitalization Infrastructure .............................................................................................. 31

4.1.1.4. Innovation .......................................................................................................................... 33

4.1.2. Climate change and resource scarcity ............................................................................... 37

4.1.3. Demographic changes .......................................................................................................... 47

4.1.4. The shift in economic power ................................................................................................ 49

4.1.5. Accelerating urbanization .................................................................................................... 56

4.2. Disruption Factors ....................................................................................................................... 57

4.2.1. Customer behavior ................................................................................................................ 57

4.2.2. Competition ............................................................................................................................ 59

Figure 58: Global Primary Energy Supply (Biomass) ....................................................................... 59

4.2.3. Production Service Model .................................................................................................... 62

4.2.4. Distribution channels ............................................................................................................ 64

4.2.5. Government & regulation ..................................................................................................... 65

4.3. Future market models .................................................................................................................. 67

4.3.1. Green command and control ............................................................................................... 68

4.3.2. Ultra-distributed generation ................................................................................................. 72

file:///C:/Users/mmaduekwe/Desktop/Situation%20anlys/Situation_Analysis_Report_V7_Final%20Draft.%20docx.docx%23_Toc513641728

Page 3 of 137

4.3.3. Local energy systems ........................................................................................................... 73

4.3.4. Regional super grid ............................................................................................................... 75

4.4. Inferences from the Secondary Research and Analysis .......................................................... 75

5. Primary Research and Analysis ................................................................................................. 77

5.1. Purpose ......................................................................................................................................... 79

5.2. Business Model ............................................................................................................................ 88

Figure 97: Gender Gap Ranking (Africa) ............................................................................................ 94

5.3. Operating model/capabilities ...................................................................................................... 95

5.4. Human resources model ............................................................................................................. 96

5.5. Financial performance ................................................................................................................. 98

5.6. Business Model Evolution ........................................................................................................ 110

5.7. Transformations necessary for Women Entrepreneurs......................................................... 114

6. Recommendations ..................................................................................................................... 118

7. Selection of Four Feasibility Studies ....................................................................................... 120

References .......................................................................................................................................... 127

13. Appendices ................................................................................................................................. 131

Annex-1: Questionnaire ..................................................................................................................... 131

Annex-2: Energy Production & Consumption, 2017 ....................................................................... 134

Annex-3: Total Installed Cost for Utility Scale Solar PV Projects and the global average, 2010-2017

135

Annex-4: Total Installed cost ranges and weighted averages for on-shore wind farms (by

country/region, 2010-2016) ................................................................................................................ 136

Annex-5: Total installed costs of bio-mass-fired generation technologies (by country/region)136

Annex-6: Levelized cost of electricity by capacity factor of bio-energy fired projects (2000-2016)137

Annex-7: Cost of Various Cooking Techn