ENERGY STORAGE SUPPLY CHAIN OPPORTUNITIES _Energy_Supply...» By end of 10-year period, even...
Transcript of ENERGY STORAGE SUPPLY CHAIN OPPORTUNITIES _Energy_Supply...» By end of 10-year period, even...
M A R K E T I N T E L L I G E N C E • A N A L Y S I S • B E N C H M A R K I N G
©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Notice: No material in this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system,
or transmitted by any means, in whole or in part, without the express written permission of Navigant Consulting, Inc.
ENERGY STORAGE SUPPLY CHAIN OPPORTUNITIES
SEPTEMBER 10, 2014
SAM JAFFE PRINCIPAL RESEARCH ANALYST
2 ©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
Introduction
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3 ©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
Table of Contents
Section 1 » Battery History and Background
Section 2 » Battery Forecasts
Section 3 » Battery Supply Chain and Materials
Section 4 » Thoughts on Tesla’s Gigafactory
SECTION 1
BATTERY HISTORY AND
BACKGROUND
5 ©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
Commercial Battery History
» Daniell battery, developed in 1836, becomes the first commercial battery
» First lead-acid battery developed by Gaston Plante in 1859 for rail applications
in France
» Rechargeable Li-ion battery developed by Dr. Stan Whittingham at Exxon in
early 1980s
» Dr. John Goodenough of Texas developed the lithium cobalt chemistry and later the lithium
iron phosphate chemistry
» Sony launched the first commercial Li-ion battery for consumer electronics in 1991
» Today, Li-ion powers most portable tools and devices, as well as most EVs and stationary
storage systems
Plante Battery Stanley Whittingham John Goodenough
(Source: Wikimedia Commons) (Source: SUNY Binghamton) (Source: University of Texas)
6 ©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
Li-ion Market Share by Segment, World Markets: First 5 Years
Li-ion Inflection Point
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Power Tools
Laptops
Video Cameras
Feature Phones
Hybrid EV's
Telecom Backup Power
(Source: Navigant Research)
7 ©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
Lithium Ion Pricing Forecasts
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
$/k
Wh
Large Format
Small Format
Tesla Small Format
Historical and Forecast Lowest-Point Pricing for Li-ion Batteries by Form Factor, 2009-2023
Source: Navigant Research
SECTION 2
BATTERY FORECASTS
9 ©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
Advanced Battery Consumer Electronics Forecast
Advanced Batteries for Consumer Electronics Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
(Source: Navigant Research)
Advanced Battery Consumer Electronics Forecast
Advanced Batteries for Consumer Electronics Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
(Source: Navigant Research)
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
(GW
h)
($ B
illi
on
s)
North America
Europe
Asia Pacific
Latin America
Middle East & Africa
Total GWH
10 ©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
Advanced Battery Power Tool Battery Forecast
Advanced Batteries for Power Tools Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
(Source: Navigant Research)
-
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
(GW
h)
($ M
illio
ns
)
North AmericaEuropeAsia PacificLatin AmericaMiddle East & AfricaTotal GWH
11 ©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
Advanced Battery EV Forecast
Advanced Batteries for XEV Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
(Source: Navigant Research)
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
$-
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
(GW
h)
($ B
illi
on
s)
Middle East & AfricaLatin AmericaAsia PacificEuropeNorth AmericaTotal GWh
12 ©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
Advanced Battery Stationary Storage Forecast
Advanced Batteries Stationary Storage Revenue by Region,
World Markets: 2014-2023
(Source: Navigant Research)
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
$-
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
$20
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
(GW
H)
($ B
illio
ns)
North America
Europe
Asia Pacific
Latin America
Middle East & Africa
Total GWh
13 ©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
Global Revenue Forecast for All Advanced Batteries
Advanced Batteries Revenue by Application, World Markets: 2014-2023
(Source: Navigant Research)
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
(GW
h)
($ B
illi
on
s)
xEV
Stationary
Consumer Electronics
Power Tools
Other Applications
Total GWh
14 ©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
Beyond Li-ion Chemistries: 2015-2018
Lithium NMC with Silicon Anodes
Energy Density: 308 Wh/kg to 440 Wh/kg
Cost Estimate: $300/kWh to $900/kWh
Manufacturers: Envia, Johnson Controls, Bosch
Lithium Sulfur
Energy Density: 250 Wh/kg to 500 Wh/kg
Cost Range: $100/kWh to $1,200/kWh
Manufacturers: Sion Power, PolyPlus, Ohms
Solid Electrolyte
Energy Density: 160 Wh/kg to 300 Wh/kg
Cost Range: $200/kWh to $1,200/kWh
Manufacturers: Seeo, Sakti3, Solid Power
15 ©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
Beyond Li-ion Chemistries: 2018 and Beyond
Magnesium Ion
Energy Density: 180 Wh/kg to 280 Wh/kg
Cost Range: $100/kWh to $900/kWh
Manufacturers: Toyota, Apple, Pellion
Metal Air
Energy Density: 400 Wh/kg to 3,500 Wh/kg
Cost Range: $150/kWh to $1,800/kWh
Manufacturers: IBM, Samsung, Toyota
16 ©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
Beyond Li-ion: Ultracapacitor Technologies
Electric Double Layer Capacitors (EDLC)
Energy Density: 10 Wh/kg to 20 Wh/kg
Cost Range: $4,000/kWh to $12,000/kWh
Manufacturers: Maxwell, Nippon Chemi-Con, Ioxus
Lithium Capacitors (LiC)
Energy Density: 10 Wh/kg to 40 Wh/kg
Cost Range: $1,200/kWh to $8,500/kWh
Manufacturers: JSR, Hitachi Chemical
17 ©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
» Asia Pacific and Europe will be the leaders in the early years, especially due to enthusiasm
around ultracapacitors
» The North American market will become the largest market by 2023 thanks to the startup
culture leading to significant breakthroughs with metal air and magnesium ion
Next-Generation Advanced Batteries by Region
(Source: Navigant Research)
Next-Generation Advanced Batteries Energy Capacity and Revenue,
All Applications, World Markets: 2014-2023
$-
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
$10
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
($ B
illio
ns)
(MW
h)
North America
Europe
Asia Pacific
Latin America
Middle East Africa
Revenue
18 ©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
» By end of 10-year period, even distribution between transportation and stationary, with portable
power applications making an appearance at the end
» Initial automotive applications, especially ultracapacitors for stop-start vehicles, will sustain the
market in first 5 years
Next-Generation Advanced Batteries
by Application
Next-Generation Advanced Batteries Energy Capacity by Application,
World Markets: 2014-2023
(Source: Navigant Research)
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
(MW
h)
Transportation
Stationary
Portable Power
Other Applications
SECTION 3
BATTERY SUPPLY CHAIN
AND MATERIALS
20 ©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
Lithium Ion Materials Costs
$14.49$19.08
$32.48$0.02
$2.87
$6.74
$3.48
$4.36
$24.16
$5.06
$7.27
$8.36
$3.26
$4.05
$5.51
$2.46
$5.36
$9.20
$2.38
$6.44
$7.36
$3.95
$9.75
$1.84
$0.01
$0.08
$2.25
$8.91
$9.90
$6.01
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
Raw Material Price Refined Material Price Fully ProcessedMaterial Price
Other InactiveMaterial
Aluminum Container
Other ChemicalAdditives
Electrolyte Solventsand Additives
Electrolyte ActiveMaterial
Separator
Anode Copper FoilBacking
Anode ActiveMaterial
Cathode AluminumFoil Backing
Cathode ActiveMaterial
Raw Material, Refined Material, and Fully Processed Material Costs for Li-Ion Batteries, 2014
$44
$69
$104
©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. 21
Battery Transportation Logistics
» The Journey of a Molecule
› A single Lithium molecule has 7 distinct trips
before it is used by a consumer. All told, the
molecule has travelled 29,875 miles to get to
the user.
› Those trips are: 1: Molecule is mined in Chile and shipped to U.S. refinery
to be turned into lithium carbonate (3,600 miles)
2: Lithium carbonate is shipped from U.S. refinery to
processing facility in Japan to be packaged and
measured (17,360 miles)
3: Lithium Carbonate is shipped to cathode powder
facility in South Korea (715 miles)
4: Cathode powder is shipped to China
5,6,7: Powder is moved within China three more times to
various distribution centers before finally getting to battery
factory to be placed inside battery (1,300 miles)
7: Finished battery is shipped from China back to U.S. to
be placed in automobile (7,800 miles)
1
2
3
5,6,7 8 4
Source: Navigant Research
©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. 22
Battery Materials: LiPF6 Electrolyte
» Dramatic drop in LiPF6 pricing between 2010 and 2014 from as much as
$120/kg to $25/kg—due to emerging manufacturers in China
» No LiPF6 manufacturer in the U.S. today
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Mil
lio
ns
US
D
Me
tric
To
ns
LiPF6
LiPF6 Revenue
Forecast of LiPF6 in Metric Tons and Revenue,
World Markets: 2014-2023
©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. 23
Battery Materials: Lithium
» Relatively small volume of Lithium ore goes into Lithium Carbonate
» Most new battery chemistries are still lithium based, so lithium
batteries will be with us for at least the next two decades
» Navigant Research sees no significant threat of lithium shortages in
the next ten years
Forecast of Lithium Ore in Metric Tons and Lithium Carbonate in Metric Tons and Revenue,
World Markets: 2014-2023
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Millio
ns U
SD
Metr
ic T
on
sLithium Ore
Lithium Carbonate
Lithium CarbonateRevenue
©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. 24
Battery Materials: Graphite
» Graphite can be made synthetically, but most graphite used in batteries is
mined
» More than two dozen active graphite mine starts are in process today, including
up to eight in North America
Forecast of Raw Graphite and Milled Graphite and in Metric Tons and Revenue,
World Markets: 2014-2023
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Millio
ns U
SD
Metr
ic T
on
sGraphite Ore
Processed Graphite
Processed GraphiteRevenue
©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. 25
Battery Materials: Separators
» Separator film shipments will grow in direct relationship to growth of battery
market
» Most separators are relatively simple and cheap polyolefin blends
Forecast of Separators in Metric Tons and Revenue,
World Markets: 2014-2023
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Mil
lio
ns
US
D
Me
tric
To
ns
Separator
Separator Revenue
©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. 26
Battery Materials: Vanadium Oxide Electrolyte
» Not all batteries will be Li-ion: Navigant Research expects significant
growth in the Vanadium Oxide Battery space also
» If growth gets too rapid in VO2 battery market, then it will impact the price
of Vanadium, quickly making these batteries less competitive
Forecast of Vanadium Oxide Electrolyte in Metric Tons and Revenue,
World Markets: 2014-2023
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Mil
lio
ns
US
D
Me
tric
To
ns
Vanadium OxideElectrolyte
VO ElectrolyteRevenue
SECTION 4
TESLA GIGAFACTORY
28 ©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
» Chemistry › Optimized for high power and long cycle life
› LiNi0.76Co0.14Al0.10O2 Cathode (NCA)
› Graphite Anode
› Voltage range of 3.6 to 4.05 V
› 90% capacity after 3,000 cycles
› Tesla NCA batteries use 25% of the cobalt that
traditional LCO batteries use
» Cell design › Central rod inside the jelly roll deforms at higher
temperature, causing battery cell to collapse
downwards in case of thermal runaway
› 18650 size
› More than 7,000 cells in a Model S pack
Tesla Motors:
Pack Design-The Cell
Deformable center bar configuration Source: Tesla Patent 20110117403
29 ©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
» Each 18650 cell is connected to a
busbar with 1 mm wide connector
which serves as current collector and
physical fuse
» Each cell is held in metal pocket that
isolates any thermal transient issues
and is surrounded by liquid heat
transfer system
» Pack is structurally integrated into
vehicle chassis, providing crash
protection and handling
improvements
Tesla Motors:
Pack Design-The Pack
Model S Pack Internals Source: EV Upgrade
30 ©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
» Tesla has publicly stated that it pays
somewhere between $200 and $300 per
kWh for the entire battery pack Navigant
Research estimates that it is spending
~$180 per kWh for its Panasonic cells
» Costs for cells and packs will continue to
decline in 2014 and 2015 (maybe 10-15%)
» With establishment of GigaFactory, Tesla
will be producing cells at $110-150per
kWh
Tesla Motors:
Pack Design-Costs
Model S Chassis Source: Greentech Media
31 ©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
» 35 GWh cell capacity; 50 GWh pack capacity
» Integrated on-site renewables for “majority” of power needs
» “Soup-to-nuts” facility: raw materials go in one end, finished battery
packs go out the other
» 6,500 employees
» Transportation of packs to NUMMI will be a minor cost, however rail is a
requirement—if shipping is by truck, then shipping costs increase by 4x
Tesla Motors:
GigaFactory-The Plan
GigaFactory rendering Source: Tesla
32 ©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
» Differential between pack capacity (50 GWh’s) and cell capacity (35
GWh’s) is the carrot to lure Panasonic as a battery manufacturing
partner; those extra 15 GWh’s of cells will have to be sourced
elsewhere at higher cost
Tesla Motors:
GigaFactory-The Carrot
GigaFactory Timeline Source: Tesla
33 ©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
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