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ENERGY STORAGE: EVOLUTION AND

REVOLUTION ON THE ELECTRIC GRID

THURSDAY, MARCH 29, 20183 P.M. ET/ 2 P.M. CT/ 1 P.M. MT/

12:00 PT

March 29, 2018

Presenters

Ravi ManghaniDirector of Energy StorageGTM Research

Lon HuberHead of ConsultingStrategen

Ravi ManghaniDirector of Energy StorageGTM Research

Prepared For:

March 29, 2018

Director, Energy Storage

[email protected]

Ravi Manghani

Energy Storage - Evolution and Revolution on the Electric Grid

5Ravi Manghani, GTM Research: Energy Storage - Evolution and Revolution on the Electric Grid

GTM, MAKE & Wood Mackenzie form the

premier market intelligence provider on the

decarbonization and decentralization of energy

Power MarketFundamentals

Regional Market Dynamics

Technology Value Chain Evolutions

We guide companies leading

the electricity transformation

5 POWER & RENEWABLES RESEARCH

Long-term Supply &

Demand Outlooks

20-year Wholesale &

Retail Price Outlooks

Thermal & Renewable

Databases and Demand

Outlooks

Policy and Regulation

Analysis

Technology Cost and

Performance Outlooks

Wind, Solar, Storage, and Grid

Edge Competitive Landscapes


Contents

1. U.S. Energy Storage Deployment Trends 4

2. Energy Storage Technology and Cost Trends 8

3. Federal and State Policy Barriers Coming Down 12


Tomorrow’s Decarbonized and Decentralized Power Market

A flatter system with outside market responses and actors at every node reshaping power market planning and operations

Dispatchable Generation

Transmission

Distribution End Customers

Intermittent Generation

Demand Side Management

EnergyStorage

Advanced Metering Infrastructure

Distributed Generation

Electric Vehicles

Connected Devices

The Power Market of the Past

A top-down, flow from supply to demand

Dispatchable Generation

Transmission

Distribution

End Customers

Tomorrow’s Decarbonized and Decentralized Power Market

Ravi Manghani, GTM Research: Energy Storage - Evolution and Revolution on the Electric Grid

U.S. Energy Storage Deployment Trends1.


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Dep

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ents

(M

Wh

)

Residential Non-Residential Front-of-the-Meter

U.S. Q4 2017 Deployments in Megawatt-Hours Down 57% From Previous Year

U.S. Quarterly Energy Storage Deployments by Segment (MWh)

Source: GTM Research/ESA U.S. Energy Storage Monitor

Record breaking quarters: Q4 2016 and Q1 2017 – Aliso Canyon Systems come on-line


California

34%

Hawaii 24%

Arizona 5%

All Others

37%

California

40%

Texas29%

Hawaii6%

All Others

25%

Where Is Energy Storage Deployed So Far? (Megawatt-Hours)

Residential Non-Residential Utility

California Accounts for 48% Through 4Q 2017

Source: GTM Research/ESA U.S. Energy Storage Monitor

California

86%

New York 4%

Hawaii 2% All

Others 8%


* “Other” includes flywheel and unidentified energy storage technologies.

Quarterly Energy Storage Deployment Share by Technology (MW %)

Lithium-Ion Technology Continues the Trend of More Than 94% Share

0%

10%

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17En

ergy

Sto

rage

Dep

loym

ents

by

Tech

no

logy

(M

W)

Lithium Ion Lead Acid Sodium Chemistries Flow - Vanadium Flow - Zinc Other

Source: GTM Research / ESA U.S. Energy Storage Monitor


Energy Storage Technology and Cost Trends

2.


Commercialized Storage Technologies – Lithium-Ion Off to the Races

Commercialized Energy Storage Technologies: Cost ($/kWh) Versus Cumulative U.S. Installed Capacity (MW)

Cycle life ranges from 300-15,000 depending on depth of discharge, mature technology with over 600 MW of utility-scale systems

deployed, suited for power and energy applications from 12-minutes to 4-hour

discharge on both sides of the meter

Oldest battery technology with cycle life of 1,000 at high depth of discharge; particularly suited to the off-grid

market and 4-hour discharge duration or longer

Cycle life of 2,500 to 4,500, suited for peak shaving; NaS suited for 6-hour while Na-Ni

suited for 2- to 6-hour discharge applications

Cycle life of more than 100,000; mature in power

quality and UPS applications and frequency regulation, suited for <30-minutes duration projects

$-

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750

Tech

no

logy

Co

st (

$/k

Wh

)

Cumulative U.S. Installed Capacity (MW)

Lithium Ion Lead Acid Sodium Chemistries Flywheel



Early Stage Storage Technologies – No Clear Winner, Flow Batteries Have Better Prospects

Demonstration/Pilot Phase Energy Storage Technologies: Cumulative U.S. Installed Capacity (MW)

Cycle life varies from 10,000 - 12,000, cost spreads from $425-$750/kWh, few projects

deployed, VRB batteries furthest along while Zn-Br batteries still nascent, suited for power and

energy-centric applications of 4- to 12-hour discharge at rated power

Cycle life of 3,000, suited to applications needing 4- to 20-hour discharge like microgrids

and off-grid applications

Cycle life of 6,000, pricing ranges from $160-$200/kWh, demonstration phase, suited for

applications of 4 hour discharge like peak load shaving and power centric applications

Cycle life still under test, suited for 2-to 12-hour discharge applications like

micogrids and off-grid projects

High power, low energy, cycle life of 1 million,

suited for 2-minutes or less power applications like frequency regulations, voltage stabilization,

renewables smoothing and battery support

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5

Cumulative U.S. Installed Capacity (MW)

Flow Aqueous Zinc-hybrid Liquid metal batteries Ultracapacitor

For technologies still in early commercial/demonstration phase, costs are illustrative



Annual Declines in Battery Price and Balance-of-System Costs Will Drop Below 10% After 2020

-22% -22%

-24% -24%

-14% -14% -10% -9% -8% -8%-10%

-11%

-32%

-27%

-16%

-8% -8%-7% -6%

-5%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E

Year

-Ove

r-Ye

ar D

eclin

e (%

)

Battery Price BOS Cost decline

Phase 1: Battery price reductions were the primary driver for system price declines

Phase 2: Extreme reductions in BOS costs drove down system prices by more than 25%

Phase 3: Continued reductions in battery prices and BOS costs are driven by production ramp-up, growing competition and improvements in system design and engineering

Phase 4: As the storage market matures, both battery prices and BOS costs will continue to decline but the rate will be lower post-2020, with improvements arising from experience.

Source: GTM Research

Year-Over-Year Decline in Lithium-Ion Battery Price and BOS Cost, 2013 – 2022E (%)


Federal and State Policy Barriers Coming Down

3.


On February 15th FERC released draft final rules adopting participation and eligibility requirements for energy storage in ISOs and RTOs. The participation model for electric storage resources must:

Ensure that a resource using the participation model for electric storage resources in an RTO and ISO market is eligible to provide all capacity, energy, and ancillary services that it is technically capable of providing

Ensure that a resource using the participation model for electric storage resources can be dispatched and can set the wholesale market clearing price as both a wholesale seller and wholesale buyerconsistent with rules that govern the conditions under which a resource can set the wholesale price.

Account for the physical and operational characteristics of electric storage resources through bidding parameters or other means.

Establish a minimum size requirement for participation in the RTO and ISO markets that does not exceed 100 kW. Also requires that the sale of electric energy from the RTO or ISO market to an electric storage resource that the resource then resells back to those markets must be at the wholesale locational marginal price.

Biggest Shot in the Arm: FERC Rules Energy Storage Must be Eligible to Participate in Wholesale Markets

FERC Order 841



AZ

CO

FL

NC

VAWV

WA

SC

IN

KY

MA

CA

OR

NM

MW in Resource Plan

Specific Storage

Capacity

“As Much As…”

TBD

Estimated Total Opportunity: 5.1 GW, 16.8 GWh


There are several utility resource

proceedings all over the country that

explicitly include storage in their

resource plans. There’s about 5.1 GW

of opportunity in existing utility IRPs.

These IRPs offer a view of storage as a

flexible resource on the grid, and

complementary, not necessarily a

direct threat to CT plants.

The Momentum Builds: Energy Storage in Integrated Resource PlansStorage Modeled, Eligible or Mandated in Utility IRPs (MW)


Notable State Policies Roundup – Levelling the Playing Field

Colorado

• SB18-009 allows customers to install BTM storage

Maryland

• First state with BTM energy storage tax credit

Arizona

• Clean peak standard proposal• 3 GW energy storage goal proposal

California

• 1,385 MW storage mandate• SGIP incentive• ESDER initiative to integrate storage on CAISO• Local capacity procurements, storage RFOs

for peaker replacement

Texas

• Texas PUC initiated rulemaking docket to address energy storage on distribution grid

Washington

• WA UTC energy storage policy statement

Oregon

• Minimum 5 MWh per utility storage mandate

• 200 MWh energy storage target• $20 million ACES program• SMART energy storage adder

Massachusetts

Hawaii

• First state with innovative solar-plus-storage projects• Customer solar self-supply tariff

• Gov. Cuomo - 1,500 MW goal• NY REV demo projects• Con Edison demand management programs

New York

Interested in other GTM Research products and services? Please visit www.gtmresearch.com or contact [email protected]

Thank You!

Ravi Manghani

[email protected]

March 29, 2018

Lon HuberHead of ConsultingStrategen

Energy Storage - Evolution and Revolution on the

Electric GridLon Huber March, 2017

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1660 Projects, 193594 MW

A Sampling of Our Clients

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Strategen provides insight to global corporations, utilities and public sector leaders, helping them to develop impactful and financially sustainable clean energy strategies

Strategen

3

Storage analytics and cost/benefit

25

What is energy storage?

Value and services

Key trends and drivers

Moving forward

26

Topics

Energy storage is a very broad asset class

27

Electro-Chemical

(Flow battery / Lithium Ion)

Mechanical

(Flywheel)

Bulk Mechanical

Thermal

(Ice / Molten Salt)

Bulk Gravitational

(Pumped Hydro)

Transportation and Chemical

(Electric and Hydrogen Vehicles)

(CAES)

Size and Duration by Technology

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Source: Australian Renewable Energy Agency (7/2015): Energy Storage Study Funding and Knowledge Sharing Priorities


Value and services


Moving forward

29

Topics

30

Bulk Storage

Ancillary Services

DistributedStorage

DistributedStorage Commercial

Storage

ResidentialStorage

Broad electric power system applicability

▪ Energy storage can be deployed quickly, relocate and scaled up or down as required. (Shift, scale-able, shift-able)

▪ This makes it a critical tool to navigate the rapid change that is occurring

May 27, 2016

• SCE issues Aliso ACES RFO and DBT RFP

Jul. 18, 2016

• SDG&E files application for 150 MWhs of storage

Aug. 15, 2016

• SCE files application for 108 MWhs of storage

Aug. 18, 2016

• CPUC approves SDG&E applications

Sept. 15, 2016

• CPUC approves SCE Round 1 applications

Dec. 31, 2016 – Feb. 2017

• Projects brought online

Aliso Canyon: from RFP to online in 7 months

Total: 94.5 MW / 342 MWh

Energy storage is flexible

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Resiliency: Dominican Republic

▪ 20 MW of storage in Santa Domingo, Dominican Republic provides efficient frequency regulation to the grid

▪ Provided key services during September’s Hurricanes Irma and Maria, when about 50% of the island’s power plants were forced offline

SOURCE: AES ADVANCION CASE STUDY: HTTP://CDN2.HUBSPOT.NET/HUBFS/2810531/COLLATERAL/AES%20ES%20CASE%20STUDY%20-%20STORM%20RESILIENCE.PDF 32

Provide Spin/ Non Spin

Provide Ramping

Provide Frequency Regulation Services

Provide Capacity

“Firm” Renewable Capacity

Shift Energy

Avoid dump energy and/or minimum load issues

Provide Black Start

Provide In-Basin GenerationSmooth Intermittent Resource Output

Improve Short-Driven Performance

Provide System Inertia

Avoid Congestion Fees

Defer System Upgrades

Improve System Reliability

Provide System Inertia Defer System Upgrades

Mitigate Outages

Integrate Intermittent Distributed Generation

Maintain Power Quality Self-consumption

Provide Uninterruptible Power Supply

Generation

Transmission

Distribution

End User

Demand Charge/ TOU

Energy Shifting Dynamic Response

Short (< 2 min)

Medium ( 2min – 1 hour)

Long (1 hour +)

Grid Location Minimum duration of output energy

Operational use cases for storage systems (There are many)

Source: Modified from SCE 2011 chart

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1. Identify primary need

3. Optimize value streams and understand tradeoffs

2. Explore combinations of stackable benefits; discard incompatible

value streams

Approach to evaluating storage opportunities

34


Provide Ramping


Provide Capacity


Shift Energy


Provide Black Start








Mitigate Outages




Generation

Transmission

Distribution

End User

Demand Charge/ TOU


Short (< 2 min) Medium ( 2min – 1 hour) Long (1 hour +)


Main Use Case: Distribution deferral


35

Value stack example #1: Distribution deferral

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Provide Ramping


Provide Capacity


Shift Energy


Provide Black Start








Mitigate Outages




Generation

Transmission

Distribution

End User

Demand Charge/ TOU


Short (< 2 min) Medium ( 2min – 1 hour) Long (1 hour +)


Value stack example #2: Frequency regulation


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Value stack example #2: Frequency regulation

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Potential benefits from additional use cases

SecondaryUse Case

PrimaryUse Case

StackedUse Cases

Value stacking: Dist. deferral + frequency regulation

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0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Regulation RenewableIntegration

Resilency Capacity T&D

De

plo

ym

en

t (M

W)

Energy Storage Applications by State

Other Regions Arizona Hawaii ERCOT ISO-NE NYISO PJM CAISO

Application Description

Regulation Market products for wholesale market participation

Renewable Integration

Storage sited with renewable projects

Resiliency Microgrids and Black Start applications

CapacityLocal Capacity and Resource Adequacy

T&DTransmission and Distribution Upgrade Deferral

Note: Pumped Hydro technology excluded. Some storage capacity may be double-counted if the system performs multiple applicationsSource: DOE Energy Storage Database Accessed Jan 11, 2018

US installed capacity by application

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% Time per YearSource: PG&E Demand Response Programs: An Overview Presentation

The power system is underutilized

▪ Analysis finds that for every $1 spent on reducing peak demand, at least $2.62 can be saved by ratepayers in Illinois and $3.26 by ratepayers in Massachusetts.

▪ Cutting top 100 hours of peak demand could save New York State up to $1.7 billion per year

▪ 15% of total production assets run less than 7 days per year or less than 2% of that time

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MA DOER slide: Commissioner Judson presentation at Restructuring Roundtable, May 2016Source: https://info.aee.net/peak-demand-reduction-report

According to EIA:Average peaker plant runs about 2-7% of the yearOver 70 GW of new peaker plants will be built in the U.S. before 2026

Why peak demand is important


Value and services


Moving forward

43

Topics

Chapter 1Frequency regulation

44

▪ Frequency regulation (FR) storage projects are low energy applications therefore lower cost for batteries

▪ Important but shallow market as renewable generation increases

▪ FR was largest front-of-meter storage application in USA until 2016

▪ 265 MW of fast-response storage in PJM

▪ Typically 30 minute to an hour capacity

▪ Volatile market pricing

Source: Energy Storage North America 2017solarprofessiobnal.com

44

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Use case attributes:▪ High T&D upgrade costs ▪ High peak-to-energy ratio▪ Modest projected load growth ▪ Uncertainty regarding the timing or likelihood of major load additions▪ T&D construction limitations (siting, line access local community opposition to new

power lines and infrastructure.)▪ An energy storage system used for T&D deferral will be able to provide additional

benefits (renewable integration, etc.)

Australia Example: Grid utility support system, 20 energy storage systems to support remote networks

Energy storage for T&D deferral is expected to grow from 332 MW in 2017 to 14,325 MW in 2026.

Chapter 2Niche transmission & distribution infrastructure deferral

Source: energy-storage.news, businesswire.com, ergon.com

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Chapter 3Battery peaker – local capacity

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SellerResource

TypeTotal

ContractsMW

Adv. MicrogridSolutions

BTM Battery 4 50.0

AES FTM Battery 1 100.0

Ice EnergyBTMThermal

16 25.6

NRG FTM Battery 1 0.5

Stem BTM Battery 5 85.0

Total 27 261.1

SCE Energy Storage LCR Procurement

▪ Aliso - 94.5 MW / 342 MwhPeaker Plants Constructed In 7-months

▪ Highlighted Fast Deployment Of Energy Storage

▪ Led To 100MW In 100 Days’ Deployment In Australia

▪ Primarily a Storage-only Application

SCE purchased 5X CPUC requirement (50MW)

▪ Great River Energy Co-op in Minnesota issued RFP for 10 MW PV and 10 MW/20 MWh Storage system in 2018

▪ Primary use case for storage is to dispatch over 2-4 hours peak period for demand reduction

▪ Storage to be charged 100% by co-located PV

Irvine Company Hybrid Electric Buildings

▪ Batteries and advanced software

▪ 10 MW / 60 MWh

▪ 20 buildings

▪ 20% peak demand reduction

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Chapter 3.5C&I and Co-op Demand Charge Mitigation

Source: greatriverenergy.com, advmicrogrid.com,

48

Australia: Cooktown Solar and Storage

▪ 33MW solar plus 1.4MW/5.4MWh Lithium based battery storage

▪ Fringe grid in Australia and will test the boundaries of operation of utility scale solar battery storage in these conditions.

▪ The Project is now in operation.

▪ Funding dependent on dispatchable/storage aspect to assist with supplying solar during evening peak

▪ Altogether, Lyon Group planning 1.7GW of PV and 1GW of battery storage by 2020

Arizona: Tucson Electric Power 100 MW solar plus storage plant

▪ 30 MW of four-hour duration batteries▪ 20 year PPA

▪ ~3 cents/kWh solar – ~4.5 cents/kWh with battery▪ Will be largest solar-plus-utility-scale-battery system in the US

Source: http://www.lyoninfrastructure.com/cooktown.html

Chapter 4Dispatchable solar – PV + storage peaker

Source: http://insights.globalspec.com/article/4139/solar-storage-peaker-plant-for-kaua-i

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New York: Brooklyn Queens Demand Management program

▪ 41 MW customer sited solutions

▪ 11 MW utility sited solutions

California: SCE & PG&E Energy Storage Solicitation for Local Capacity

▪ Several behind and in-front of meter energy storage resources procured

Australia: AGL virtual power plant.

▪ 1000 aggregated BTM storage systems, 5MW/7MWh total for customer, distribution and wholesale benefits

▪ Customer sited DER and embedded solutions will be leveraged more in the future to avoid utility infrastructure.

▪ New markets and compensation models will be required to encourage, guide and extract this value.

▪ New grid operation approaches will be required to compliment new markets

Chapter 4.5DER alternatives

Source: conedbqdmauction.com, arena.gov.au

49

Chapter 5RE + longer duration storage

KIUC: The Lawai Project

▪ 28 MW solar farm

▪ 100 MWh 5 Hour Li-Ion Battery

▪ Expected 3.7 million gallon reduction in fossil fuel consumption per year.

▪ 25-year PPA, 11 cents/kWh

▪ Near the wholesale energy price!

▪ Supply power at peak evening times

Australia: Australia’s largest solar farm.

• Solar Q proposes to build 350MW solar PV + storage with a second phase to expand to 800MW

• 800MW would provide ~ 15% of the state's south-east electricity needs from PV and 4,000 MWh of batteries

• Storage is critical aspect to serve evening load

Source: theverge.com, abc.net.au, hawaiienergypolicy.hawaii.edu

50


Value and services


Moving forward

51

Topics

52

Bulk Storage

Ancillary Services

DistributedStorage

DistributedStorage Commercial

Storage

ResidentialStorage

✓ Market Rules✓ Market Study,

Valuation & Targets

✓ All Source Procurements and Resource Plans

✓ Renewable Energy Strategy

✓ Non-wires Alternatives

✓ Resiliency✓ Rate Design✓ EV Infrastructure

Chapters won’t happen by themselves

Making it a reality

Source: EPRI

53

Source: ABB

FuturePast

Conceptual path forward Li-Ion batteries(Costs are proportional to energy/time)

Source: SCE 2011

54

▪ Modest sales of EV/hybrids can have significant impact on global cell production

▪ Currently, significant underutilization in global cell production

The importance of demand

Source: CEMAC report to DOE

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▪ China are expecting Li-ion to play significant role in clean energy future

▪ China’s 13th 5 year plan guarantees payouts if manufacturers meet targets

▪ Directing and encouraging internal manufacturing to increase production and capture market

China targeting/investing in energy storage

Source: www.visualcapitalist.com

What is at stake?

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Low Carbon Grid Study (February 2016): http://lowcarbongrid2030.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/PDFs/160307_PhaseIIResults.pdf

Renewable curtailment & negative prices

SOURCE: (HTTPS://WWW.EIA.GOV/TODAYINENERGY/DETAIL.PHP?ID=30692) (HTTPS://WWW.CAISO.COM/DOCUMENTS/WIND_SOLARREAL-TIMEDISPATCHCURTAILMENTREPORTMAY13_2017.PDF)

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The RPS 2.0

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https://www.strategen.com/reports-1/2018/3/28/evolving-the-rps-implementing-a-clean-peak-standard

https://www.strategen.com/reports-1/2018/3/28/evolving-the-rps-implementing-a-clean-peak-standard

Are your state policies ready?

60

Coming in less than 5 years!

▪ Storage is eligible for ITC if charged from solar

▪ Level of benefit dependent on ability to charge from solar-paired system

▪ Battery must be ≥75% charged from solar to receive ITC

▪ Retrofits eligible for ITC, if 100% RE charged

▪ Tax reform includes changes to depreciation/MACRS, and ITC – stay tuned for new IRS rules

61

Adding solar to storage unlocks tax benefits

Source: NREL

▪ By 2030 all new cars in the Netherlands must be emission free

▪ India announced that it would end sales of gas and diesel cars by 2030.

▪ Norway agreed to end sales of gas and diesel cars by 2025.

▪ France announced it would end sales of gas and diesel cars by 2040.

▪ Britain announced it would end sales of gas and diesel cars by 2040.

▪ The Scottish government announced it would phase out gas and diesel cars by 2032.

Others soon to announce

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Global drivers of EVs

Source: www.vox.com

https://electrek.co/2017/10/10/netherlands-dutch-ban-petrol-diesel-cars-2030-electric-cars/

http://money.cnn.com/2017/06/03/technology/future/india-electric-cars/index.html

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/norway-to-ban-the-sale-of-all-fossil-fuel-based-cars-by-2025-and-replace-with-electric-vehicles-a7065616.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/06/business/energy-environment/france-cars-ban-gas-diesel.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/26/world/europe/uk-diesel-petrol-emissions.html

https://news.gov.scot/news/programme-for-government-1

Thank you!Lon HuberVice PresidentStrategen Consulting, LLC

▪ Email: [email protected]▪ Phone: 928-380-5540

63

6th Energy Storage North America (ESNA) Conference + Expo: November 6-8, Pasadena,

CALargest grid-connected energy storage

conference in North America, covering all applications including EV charging

(www.esnaexpo.com)

https://www.strategen.com/new-blog/2016/12/1/evolving-the-rps-a-clean-peak-standard-for-a-smarter-renewable-future

Clean Peak Paper:

mailto:[email protected]

https://www.strategen.com/new-blog/2016/12/1/evolving-the-rps-a-clean-peak-standard-for-a-smarter-renewable-future

March 29, 2018

Archived WebinarSlides and a recording of today's event will be made

available within 5 business days at http://www.ncsl.org/default.aspx?tabid=29955.

Register for additional webinars at the address above. Questions?

Contact [email protected]

Thank you for attending!

mailto:[email protected]

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