Energy storage overview A CHANGING GLOBAL POWER GENERATION MIX GLOBAL CUMULATIVE CAPACITY, GW GLOBAL...
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ENERGY STORAGE MARKET OUTLOOK ESSJ 2016, Tokyo Ali Izadi I-Chun Hsiao 8 November 2016
Transcript of Energy storage overview A CHANGING GLOBAL POWER GENERATION MIX GLOBAL CUMULATIVE CAPACITY, GW GLOBAL...
ENERGY STORAGE MARKET OUTLOOK
ESSJ 2016, Tokyo
Ali Izadi
I-Chun Hsiao
8 November 2016
1
740
66 58
157 101
168
245
466
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2016e
EMEA
APAC
AMER276
Jan 2016 end of year prediction
Note: The estimated figures for 2016 are based on known projects which are due to be commissioned this year, rather
than projections based on policy etc. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
GLOBAL COMMISSIONED UTILITY-SCALE ENERGY STORAGE BY REGION, 2009-16 (MW)
2
Note: Q2 2016 numbers are provisional and only include projects commissioned as of the second week of June 2016. For
underlying data, including 2009 – 2010, click here Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
APPLICATION MIX OF COMMISSIONED ENERGY STORAGE PROJECTS (% BY MW)
14%5% 6%
6%
1% 6%3% 7% 3%
14%
20%
26%
12%
28%
54%2%
7%
1%
6%
4%
1… 11% 1%
2%
40% 28% 34%
26%
22%
31%2% 1% 2%
4%
1%
2%
2%
10%
3%
20%29% 25%
40%33%
6%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1 2016
Other
Transmission - Investment deferral
Distribution - Investment deferral
Renewables integration
System capacity
Other ancillary services
Frequency regulation
Reserves
Price arbitrage
3
Note: Q2 2016 numbers are provisional and only include projects commissioned as of the second week of June 2016. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
TECHNOLOGY MIX OF COMMISSIONED ENERGY STORAGE PROJECTS (% BY MW)
1% 1% 1%3%7% 6%
21%8% 9%
41% 33%
72%
69%89% 91%
38%
26%
5%
8%1%
4%
6%
6%
1% 1%14%
21%
11%1% 1%3%3%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1 2016
Zinc Air
Sodium nickel chloride batteries
Supercapacitors
Flywheels
Flow batteries
Lead-based batteries
Lithium-ion batteries
Sodium sulphur batteries
Compressed air energy storage
4
64
16
65 58
145
78
120
169
349
271
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
MARKET SHARE OF SELECTED BATTERY SUPPLIERS BASED ON % OF TOTAL DISCLOSED COMMISSIONED (MW)
● NGK Insulators dominated the industry,
although most capacity was in Japan
The formative years: NGK dominates Fragmentation and new entrants Consolidation
● Dominated by small pure-plays such as
A123, Beacon Power and Xtreme Power.
● All three companies filed for Chapter 11
bankruptcy and were acquired.
● Large diversified companies such as LG
Chem, Samsung SDI and BYD gain market
share
● Manufacturing moves to Asia
5%
51%
9%
4%
12%
18%
Samsung SDI LG Chem BYD NGK Insulators Saft NEC A123 Systems Toshiba Kokam Xtreme Power Beacon Power Other
NGK Insulators,
67%
Other, 21%
A123 Systems,
8%
Other, 40%
A123 Systems,
22%
Xtreme Power, 12%
Beacon Power, 8%
6%
4%3%
BYD, 26%
LG Chem, 19%
Samsung SDI, 14%
Other, 13%
NGK Insulators,
11%
Kokam, 8%
Toshib…3%
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UTILITY AND INDUSTRIAL INVESTMENTS IN ENERGY STORAGE SOFTWARE COMPANIES
Note: Investment refers to total investment for the round in which a utility participated and not its direct investment. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Aug 2015
$18m & Aug 2015
$33m
Oct 2015
$50m
Feb 2016
$36m
Jul 2015
$36m
May 2016
Not disclosed
Jun 2016
$50m
Jun 2016
Not disclosed
July 2016
Not disclosed
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A CHANGING GLOBAL POWER GENERATION MIX
GLOBAL CUMULATIVE CAPACITY, GW GLOBAL GENERATION, TWh
Share of solar and wind from total generation (% of TWhs generated):
2015: 5%
2040: 30%
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
20122015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Other flexible capacity
Batteries
Demand response
Other
Solar thermal
Small-scale PV
Utility-scale PV
Offshore wind
Onshore wind
Biomass
Geothermal
Hydro
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Coal
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
20122015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Other
Solar thermal
Small-scale PV
Utility-scale PV
Offshore wind
Onshore wind
Biomass/WtE
Geothermal
Hydro
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Coal
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BREAKING UP SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCING INTO THREE TIME-FRAMES
Long-term planning to prepare the
power system for extreme events
such as peak demand or troughs
in supply.
Planned actions until right before
electricity delivery to ensure
supply equals demand.
Instant reactions to remediate
frequency deviations caused by
forecasting errors and
contingency events.
II. CONTINUOUS
BALANCING
I. CONTROLLING
FREQUENCY
III. PLANNING FOR
EXTREMES
Demand
Variable
supply
Years – Months ahead Days – minutes ahead Seconds – minutes after
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
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Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
INTEGRATING RENEWABLES AND SYSTEM FLEXIBILITY
Efficiency
Forecasting
Demand management
Markets and interconnection
Storage
Backup
Renewable energy penetration
Lower Higher
Cost
Lower
Higher
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NEW BUILD ENERGY STORAGE DEPLOYMENT BY GEOGRAPHY AND APPLICATION, 2016-24 (GWh)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
1.8
3.5 3.3
5.9
8.5
9.8
12.5
13.8
16.2
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
RoW
Latin America
Canada
US
SSA
MENA
Europe: other
Italy
UK
Germany
APAC: other
India
South Korea
Australia
Japan
China 1.8
3.5 3.3
5.9
8.5
9.8
12.5
13.8
16.2
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Other
Behind-the-meter: C&I demandcharges
Behind-the-meter: PV + storaqe
Distribution Level
Transmission Level
Renewable energy integration
Peaking capacity
Short duration balancing
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TRANSFORMING THE GRID
Coal-fired generation
Incu
mb
en
t
tech
no
log
ies
Gas-fired generation
Nuclear
Reservoir hydro
Pumped hydro
Interconnectors
Intermittent renewables
Demand response
New
tech
no
log
ie
s
Battery storage
Thermal storage
Chemical storage
Power to gas
Months to years
ahead
Minutes to days
ahead
2016 Seconds to
minutes after
11
Coal-fired generation
Inc
um
be
nt
tec
hn
olo
gie
s Gas-fired generation
Nuclear
Reservoir hydro
Pumped hydro
Interconnection
Renewable generation
Software solutions
New
tec
hn
olo
gie
s
Electrochemical storage
Thermal storage
Mechanical storage
Chemical storage
Seconds to
minutes after
BALANCING THE GRID
Months to years
ahead
Hours to days
ahead
2016
Future
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Power to gas
Interconnectors
New heating/cooling
solutions Ammonia H2
Flywheels
Compressed air Biomass
/biogas
Electric vehicles Electric vehicles
Demand response Demand response
Smart Grid and “Gridchain”
Gravity systems Biofuel
Batteries Batteries Flow
batteries Solar CSP
UHV Supergrid (GEIDCO) Interconnectors
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THE FUTURE OF ENERGY?
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