ENERGY SLIDESHOW - Constant Contactfiles.constantcontact.com/85e69272601/dd980e30-eec...Henry Hub...

33
Updated: April 19, 2017 ENERGY SLIDESHOW Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Transcript of ENERGY SLIDESHOW - Constant Contactfiles.constantcontact.com/85e69272601/dd980e30-eec...Henry Hub...

Page 1: ENERGY SLIDESHOW - Constant Contactfiles.constantcontact.com/85e69272601/dd980e30-eec...Henry Hub Natural GasHenry Hub & Marcellus Natural Gas NOTES: Latest prices are averages for

Updated: April 19, 2017

ENERGY SLIDESHOWFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas

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ENERGY PRICES

www.dallasfed.org/research/energyFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas

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Brent & WTI Crude OilWTI & Brent Crude Oil

NOTES: Latest prices are averages for the week ending 4/14/17.

Dashed lines are forward curves. WTI is West Texas Intermediate.

SOURCES: Bloomberg; Energy Information Administration.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Brent (Apr 14 = $54.76) WTI (Apr 14 = $53.19)Dollars per barrel

95% confidence

bands for WTI

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Henry Hub Natural GasHenry Hub & Marcellus Natural Gas

NOTES: Latest prices are averages for the week ending 4/14/17.

Dashed line is a forward curve. Marcellus price is an average of

Dominion South, Transco Leidy Line, and Tennessee Zone 4 prices.

SOURCES: Bloomberg; Wall Street Journal.

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Henry Hub (Apr 14 = $3.05) Marcellus (Apr 14 = $2.63)Dollars per million

British thermal units

95% confidence bands

for Henry Hub

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Retail Gasoline & Diesel

NOTES: Prices are for the week of 4/3/17. PADDs are “Petroleum

Administration for Defense Districts.” Prices include all taxes.

SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

Retail price per gallon

PADD Gasoline Diesel

1 $2.30 $2.61

1A $2.29 $2.63

1B $2.40 $2.74

1C $2.24 $2.51

2 $2.28 $2.48

3 $2.12 $2.41

4 $2.30 $2.62

5 $2.85 $2.74

U.S. $2.36 $2.56

Regular Gasoline & Highway Diesel

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

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GLOBAL PETROLEUM

www.dallasfed.org/research/energyFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas

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World Oil Supply & Demand

NOTE: Dashed lines represent forecasts.

SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

World Oil Supply & Demand

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

101

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Million barrels per day

Q1

2017

96.9

96.6

World

production

World

consumption

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World Oil Supply & Demand

NOTE: Shaded bars represent forecasts.

SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

Implied Change in World Oil Stocks

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Million barrels per day

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OPEC Oil Production & Rig Count

NOTES: OPEC is the Organization of the Petroleum

Exporting Countries. Dashed line represents a forecast.

SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

OPEC Crude Oil Production

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

28.5

29.0

29.5

30.0

30.5

31.0

31.5

32.0

32.5

33.0

33.5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Million barrels per day

Mar

32.04

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OECD Commercial Inventories

NOTES: OECD is the Organization for Economic Cooperation

and Development. Dashed line represents a forecast.

SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

OECD Commercial Oil Inventories

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

2,500

2,600

2,700

2,800

2,900

3,000

3,100

3,200

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Million barrels

2010-2014 average

Mar.

2978

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OECD Commercial Inventories

NOTE: OPEC is the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

World Oil Production Outages

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Million barrels per day

Mar.

1.89

0.51

OPEC

Non-OPEC

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NATIONAL OUTLOOK

www.dallasfed.org/research/energyFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas

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U.S. Oil Production & Rig CountU.S. Oil & Gas Production

NOTE: Natural gas series is marketed production.

SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

1921 1929 1937 1945 1953 1961 1969 1977 1985 1993 2001 2009 2017

U.S. crude oil production

Million barrels per day

U.S. natural gas production

Billion cubic feet per day

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U.S. Oil Production & Rig Count

NOTES: Dashed line shows the forecast as of 4/11/17. Rig count

series shows the last weekly count each month.

SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Energy Information Administration.

U.S. Oil Production & Rig Count

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

300

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

U.S. crude oil production

Million barrels per day

U.S. oil rig count

Number of active rigs

Jan.

8.84

Mar.

662

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Gasoline Demand

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted.

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

U.S. Oil & Gas Employment

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

100

140

180

220

260

300

340

380

420

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Number of jobs (thousands)

Support activities

for oil and gas operations Oil and gas

extractionFeb.

201.8

Mar.

180.7

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Crude Oil & Product Inventories

NOTE: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 4/19/17.

SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

Commercial Crude Oil Inventories

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

300

350

400

450

500

550

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2010-2014 range 2010-2014 average 2017 2016 2015Million barrels

Mar.

536Feb.

526Jan.

504

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Gasoline Demand

NOTE: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 4/19/17.

SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

Natural Gas Inventories

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2010-2014 range 2010-2014 average 2017 2016 2015Trillion cubic feet

Mar.

2.1

Jan.

2.6

Feb.

2.4

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Gasoline DemandGasoline Inventories

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas NOTE: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 4/19/17.

SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

270

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2010-2014 range 2010-2014 average 2017 2016 2015Million barrels

Jan.

260

Feb.

256

Mar.

239

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Gasoline DemandDistillate Inventories

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas NOTE: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 4/19/17.

SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2010-2014 range 2010-2014 average 2017 2016 2015Million barrels

Mar.

152

Jan.

169 Feb.

162

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Gasoline Demand

NOTES: Series is seasonally adjusted. Data are estimates based on hourly

traffic count data at approximately 5,000 locations nationwide.

SOURCE: Federal Highway Administration.

Vehicle Miles Traveled

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

240

245

250

255

260

265

270

275

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Billion miles traveled

Feb.

269

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Gasoline Demand

NOTES: Square marks based on weekly data as of 4/19/17.

Gasoline consumption is estimated using product supplied.

SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

Gasoline Consumption

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

8.0

8.2

8.4

8.6

8.8

9.0

9.2

9.4

9.6

9.8

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2010-2014 range 2010-2014 average 2017 2016 2015Million barrels per day

Jan.

8.50

Feb.

8.68

Mar.

9.30

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REGIONAL ACTIVITY

www.dallasfed.org/research/energyFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas

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Texas Oil Production & Rig Count

NOTE: Natural gas series is marketed production.

SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

Texas Oil & Gas Production

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017

Texas crude oil production

Million barrels per day

Texas natural gas production

Billion cubic feet per day

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Texas Oil Production & Rig Count

NOTE: Rig count series shows the last weekly count each month.

SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Energy Information Administration.

Texas Oil Production & Rig Count

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

150

250

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Texas crude oil production

Million barrels per day

Texas rig count

Number of active rigs

Jan.

3.19

Mar.

411

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Texas Mining Sector EmploymentTexas Oil & Gas Employment

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted.

SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Dallas Fed.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Number of jobs (thousands)

Support activities

for mining

Oil and gas

extraction

Feb.

116.34

91.94

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Crude Oil Production by State

NOTE: Data shown are monthly, for Jan. 2017.

SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

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Natural Gas Production by State

NOTES: Data shown are monthly, for Jan. 2017.

Series depicted is marketed natural gas production.

SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

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Crude Oil Production by Region

NOTE: Series depict estimates after Jan. 2017.

SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Permian Basin

Eagle Ford

Bakken

Niobrara

Other areas

Million barrels per day

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Natural Gas Production by Region

NOTE: Series depict estimates after Jan. 2017.

SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

0

5

10

15

20

25

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Billion cubic feet per day

Marcellus-Utica

Permian Basin

Other areas

Haynesville

Eagle Ford

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Energy Survey Business Activity

NOTES: Index is the percentage of firms reporting an increase in activity

since the prior quarter minus the percentage reporting a decrease.

Positive values reflect expansion in oil and gas activity, negative values

reflect contraction and zero reflects no change since last quarter.

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

In the current quarter vs. the prior quarter: has your firm’s level of business

activity increased, not changed or decreased?

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

-42.1

13.826.7

40.1 41.8

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017

Diffusion index

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Breakeven Prices for New Wells

NOTES: Line shows the mean, and bars shows the range of responses. 62

E&P firms answered this question from March 15-23, 2017.

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Dallas Fed Energy Survey—In the top two areas in which your firm is active: What

WTI oil price does your firm need to profitably drill a new well?

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Permian

(Midland)

SCOOP/

STACK

Eagle Ford

Permian

(Delaware)

Permian

(Central

Platform)

Other U.S. (non-shale)

Other U.S.

(shale)

$46 $47 $48$48 $50 $53

$55

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Dollars per barrel

13 8 4 10 13 40 8

Number of responses

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Shut-in Prices for Existing Wells

Dallas Fed Energy Survey—In the top two areas in which your firm is active: What

WTI oil price does your firm need to cover operating expenses for existing wells?

Federal Reserve Bank of DallasNOTES: Line shows the mean, and bars shows the range of responses. 60

E&P firms answered this question from March 15-23, 2017.

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Permian

(Midland)

SCOOP/

STACK

Eagle Ford

Permian

(Delaware)

Permian

(Central

Platform)

Other U.S.

(shale)

Other U.S.

(non-shale)

$24$27 $29

$33 $33 $35$38

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70Dollars per barrel

13 7 5 9 11 8 39

Number of responses

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Additional Resources

• Quarterly Energy Update

– The Quarterly Energy Update is a brief overview of the latest developments in global oil and gas markets. The

update highlights shifts in the outlook for world oil production, consumption and inventories, and reviews how

data reflecting U.S. activity, OPEC output and prices have evolved over the last three months.

• Dallas Fed Energy Survey

– The Dallas Fed Energy Survey is a quarterly questionnaire sent to around 200 oil and gas firms located in Texas,

northern Louisiana and southern New Mexico. A summary report released after each survey round describes

how key business indicators like production and capital spending have changed since the prior survey.

• Energy in the 11th District

– Energy in the 11th District provides detailed background info on four major oil and natural gas producing regions:

the Barnett Shale, Eagle Ford Shale, Haynesville Shale and Permian Basin. Monthly and quarterly updates

depict the latest county-level data on production, drilling, employment and sales in each region.

• Other energy articles and research

Click here to contact us for general information or other inquiries.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas