Energy Security: It’s All About Transportation

Deron LovaasFederal Transportation Policy DirectorNatural Resources Defense Council

TRBRaleigh, North CarolinaJune 7, 2010

Slide

Moving America Beyond Oil

“ We have a serious problem. America is addicted to oil.”

President George W. Bush, 2006 State of the Union

Slide

Driving Our Addiction

• US accounts for ¼ of global demand

• Over ⅔ oil goes to transportation

• 40% for passenger vehicles

mbd in 2003. Source: EIA AEO 2003.

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Travel Activity and Oil Imports

4

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

1970 1980 1990 2000

Tran

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Vehi

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YearVehicle Miles Traveled Oil Imports Transit Boardings

Slide

Fuel Economy: Jump, then Stall

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Effects of New Energy Policies

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2030 Baseline 2030 - LDV FE 2030 - (LDV FE+RFS2)

2030 - (LDV FE+RFS2+HDV)

Transportation Oil Consumption (mbd)

Slide 7

Clean Energy Saves Oil

In 2020, U.S. can save more oil (4.2 mbd) than projected imports from the Middle East and Venezuela (3.3 mbd).

Source: NRDC Analysis

Slide

Vehicle Efficiency Options

8

LDV and HDV Strategy Per Vehicle GHG Reduction Potential

Advanced Conventional Gasoline 8-30%Diesel 16%Hybrid-Electric 26-54%Plug-in Hybrid Electric 46-75%Retrofits of HDVs 10-15%

Powertrain and Resistance Reduction for New HDVs 10-30%Transit Bus Hybridization 10-50%Source: DOT Report to Congress, April 2010

Slide

Low-Carbon Fuel Strategies

9

StrategyGHG Reduction Effectiveness Net Included Cost per Tonne Cobenefits

Ethanol n/a n/a n/a

Biodiesel n/a n/a n/a

CNG 0.3-0.6% Net savings Positive

LPG <0.1% Not calculated Positive

Synthetics Uncertain/varies Uncertain/varies Positive

Alternative Aviation Fuels Uncertain/varies Uncertain/varies Positive

Hydrogen FC2.3-3.2% (2030); 18-22% (2050) Net savings

Positive and Negative

BEV2.2-2.5% (2030); 26-30% (2050) Net savings

Positive and Negative

Source: DOT Report to Congress, April 2010

Slide

System Efficiency + Reducing Carbon-Intensive Activities

• Combined 2.9-6.1% Reduction Potential from:– Highway and Truck Operations and Management– Freight Rail and Marine Operations– Air Traffic Operations– Infrastructure Construction and Maintenance

• Combined 4.9-17% (2030) and 6.4-21% (2050) Reduction Potential from:– Pricing– Transit, Nonmotorized and Intermodal Travel– Land Use and Parking– Commute Travel Reduction– Public Information Campaigns

10Source: DOT Report to Congress, April 2010

Slide

Sea Change for CAFE, What Next?

• And now, AAM says: “The national [fuel economy and GHG] program announced today makes sense for consumers, for government policymakers and for automakers.”

11

Year Vote Senate Bill

1990 42-57 Break Filibuster against bill to boost CAFE by 40% by 2000

1991 37Sponsors Bill to boost CAFE by 2001

1994-2000

CAFEFreeze

Provision added by Congress in FY06 budget

1999 40-55 Non-binding resolution to unfreeze CAFE

2002 44-56 Amendment to freeze CAFE for pick-up trucks

2003 32-65 Amendment to increase CAFE to 40 mpg by 2015

2005 28-67 Amendment to increase CAFE to 40 mpg by 2015

Slide

Senate Energy Bills in Play

• American Power Act: Oil import reduction of 9 percent by 2030, 19 percent with higher CAFE

• Practical Energy and Climate Plan: Imports reduced by 2/3 by 2030

• Carbon Limits and Energy for American Renewal (CLEAR) Act: “…[I]t is likely that the CLEAR Act will reduce…overdependence on foreign oil by creating market dynamics that spur higher vehicle fuel economy levels and accelerate the development and adoption of promising new technologies for biofuels production and vehicle fleet electrification.”

• American Clean Energy Leadership Act (ACELA): Unclear, in spite of vehicle electrification and natural gas access provisions

Sources: Peterson Institute for International Economics, Senator Lugar’s web site, Senator Cantwell’s web site, Energy and Natural Resource Committee site

Slide

Transportation Bill in Play

• Surface Transportation Authorization Act

• $450-500 billion over 6 years, nearly 2x previous bill

• Emphasis on road and bridge maintenance

• Eliminates or consolidates 75 programs

• Suballocates more funding

• Devotes more $ to transit

Slide

Mobility Choice• Anne Korin and Deron

Lovaas• Gal Luft• Cliff May• Robert C. McFarlane• R. James Woolsey• James Strock• John Norquist• Matthew Rojansky• Kenneth Green• Peter J. Pantuso• Dennis McGinn• Chuck Wilsker• Lisa Margonelli• Ken Orski

Slide

Four Consensus Policy Principles for Breaking Oil Addiction

• Align Price Signals• End Federal Mode Bias• Subsidiarity – Metros as well as States• Deploy 21st-Century Technology

Slide

The Ten-Point Plan

• Ensure Price of Fuel Better Reflects Oil’s Security Impact• Deploy “HOT” Lanes and Congestion Pricing• Allocate Transit Dollars to Optimize Oil Savings• Increase Insurance Choice• Provide Transit Vouchers to Low-Income Households• Make Telecommuting More Commonplace• Return Gas Tax Revenue to Metro Areas• Liberalize Local Land-Development Rules• Deploy Smart Traffic Management• Deploy Electric Rail if Justified on Cost and Oil-savings Basis

Potential Savings by 2030: Nearly 2 mbd!

Slide 17

Thank You!

dlovaas@nrdc.org202-289-2384

For more information regarding NRDC’s Energy Programhttp://www.nrdc.org/energy/