Energy Security & Geopolitics

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2019-2-27. GSDM international ConferenceFormer Executive Director, IEAChairman, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation

Nobuo TANAKA

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WEO2017

WEO2018

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The new geography of energyEnergy demand

In 2000, more than 40% of global demand was in Europe & North America and some 20% in developing economies in Asia.

2021

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By 2040, this situation is completely reversed.

WEO2018

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Oil

Advancedeconomies

Developingeconomies

Gas

Advancedeconomies

Developingeconomies

Fuelling the demand for energy

The increase in demand would be twice as large without continued improvementsin energy efficiency, a powerful tool to address energy security & sustainability concerns

Coal

Advancedeconomies

Developingeconomies

Change in global energy demand, 2017-2040

-600

-300

0

300

600

900

1 200

1 500

Renewables & nuclear

Mtoe

Advancedeconomies

Developingeconomies

Re

new

ab

les

Nuclear

Industry

Other

Power

Cars

Other

Petro-chemical

Cars

Power

Other

Power

WEO2018

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Tipping the energy world off its axis

Four large-scale upheavals/revolutions in global energy set the scene for the new Outlook:

– The United States is turning into the undisputed global leader for oil & gas

– Solar PV is on track to be the cheapest source of new electricity in many

countries

– China is switching to a new economic model & a cleaner energy mix

– Electricity is broadening its horizon, spurred by cooling, electric vehicles &

digitalisation

These changes brighten the prospects for affordable, sustainable energy & require a reappraisal of approaches to energy security.

There are many possible pathways ahead & many potential pitfalls if governments or industry misread the signs of change

WEO2017

China

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World’s largest crude oil producers

The US is now the world’s largest crude oil producer ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia.

It increased the total oil production by incredible 2.1 mb/d in 2018.

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120

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Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18

$/bblmb/d

United States Russia Saudi Arabia WTI

IEA data

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25

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Shale makes US the undisputed leader for oil & gas

Oil and gas production in the United States

The US is already switching to become a net exporter of gas & becomes a net exporter of oil in the 2020s, helped also by the demand-side impact of fuel efficiency & fuel switching

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1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

mboe/d Shale oil

Shale gas

Other unconventionals

Conventional oil & gas

WEO2017

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mb/d

-4

-2

+2

+4

+6

+8

+10

+12

2017 2025 2030 2035 2040

Middle East remains central to oil market stability

Oil production growth in United States, Canada, Brazil & the Middle East

The short-term picture of a well-supplied market should not obscure future riskas demand rises to 106 mb/d & reliance grows on Iraq & the rest of the Middle East

Canada

Brazil

Middle East

United States

Net decline in output from other producers

IEA data

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North American Energy Independence and Middle East Oil to Asia: a new Energy Geopolitics

Middle East oil export by destination

By 2035, almost 90% of Middle Eastern oil exports go to Asia; North America’s emergence as a net exporter accelerates the eastward shift in trade

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United StatesJapan & Korea EuropeChina India

mb/d 2000

2011

2035

1

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IEA WEO2012

9

Should China and India join

the IEA？

Net oil imports of selected countries in the New Policies Scenario (mb/d)

Asia becomes the unrivalled centre of the global oil trade as the region draws in a

rising share of the available crude

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OECD China & India

2000

2012

2020

2035

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The Choke Point: the Strait of Hormuz

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17 mbd of petroleum (20% of global demand & 42% of trade)

82 million tons of LNG pa (30% of global demand)

85% of Japanese oil import

20% of Japanese LNG import

85% of Japanese oil import20% of Japanese LNG importChubu Electric depends 40% of its power supply on one source: Qatar.

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US withdrawal from JCPOA impacted on Iran’s crude oil supply.Now US issued sanctions waivers for eight countries importing Iranian oil for

the next 180 days. The countries – including India, China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Greece, Italy and Turkey.

Iran’s Crude Oil supply and US sanction

IEA OMR 2018-Dec

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Iran civil war scenario

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2020President Trump re-elected

2019China stops oil import from Iran

2020Iran’s oil export decreases to almost zero

2020Oil price skyrockets

2020Russia remains on the sidelines

2021IRGCadministration established

2020U.S.-Iran deal failed

2021Iran secedes from JCPOA

2021Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear facilities

2022Saudi Arabia attacks Iran, Tanker war

2020sGrowing discontent among public

2020sIS expands activities in Iran

2020sUprising of minorities

2025IRGC breaking apart

Hard-liners refuse to make a compromise

Moderate wing has Hassan Khomeini as their head

2020sChina gradually restarts oil import from Iran

Civil war in Iran

Division of Iran

2030sSecession of minorities

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Power Plant

Hijacking Communication Satellite& Broadcasting Station

Fake News through SNS

Desalination Plant

Self Driving System & Automatic

Control System Transportation System

Air Traffic Control & Immigration

System Financial Market Crisis

Air Conditioning

Plant Control Mechanisms

2020 Dubai ExpoCanceled

Second Dubai Shock

Political & Social Demonstrations

Volatilization ofOil & Gas Prices

Economic Crisis in Big Cities

Gas & Crude Oil Export

Suspension

Political System Destabilized

Riot & Returning of Foreign Workers

2022 Qatar World Cup Cancelled

Int’l Disputes

Hub AirportCollision & Stop of

Tankers

Hub Port

Decline of Tourists

Cyber Incidents Chain and Expansionof Damages

Implications

Free Trade Zone

Instability of Internet & Communication Network

Gulf Cyber Shock Scenarios

L’Aquila G8 Summit, 2009

Geopolitical risk linkage: Libya to North Korea

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Shares in long-distance gas trade, 2017

Pipeline

China – the emerging giant of gas demand

Developing countries in Asia –led by China – dominate the rise

in long-distance gas trade;

Net gas imports in 2017

-100

0

100

200

300

400

ChinaEuropean Union

Japan & Korea

India Southeast Asia

bcmNet gas imports in 2040

LNG

Shares in long-distance gas trade, 2040

more than 80% of the growth to 2040 comes in the

form of LNGWEO2018

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American Gas Moves to Asia

WEO2017

The concentration of import growth in Asia continues to redraw the inter-regional gas trade map, underpinning a fundamental shift in trade flows away from the Atlantic basin to the Asia-Pacific region

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WEO2016

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East & South China Sea =LNG Sea Lane

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USDOD China Report 2018

China’s Oil and Gas Import Transit Routes: Pipeline and Sea Lane Defense

One Belt and One Road (一帯一路）

-China's interest in ensuring reliable, cost-effective, and diverse energy sources to support its economic growth drive its overseas energy investments. -China hopes to diversify energy suppliers and transport options.

Djibouti and Hambantota

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China’s BRI in Indian Ocean; String of Pearls Strategy

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PLA Navy focus moves from ‘offshore waters defense' to the combination of “offshore waters defense” with ‘open seas protection‘

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Recommendation 18: Australia, India, Japan and the U.S. should enhance sea lane defense capabilities in the Indian Ocean. Each nation will need to make judgments about its capabilities based on its interests. For instance, naval fleets will need to evolve to allow increasingly long-range operations. This may require consideration in Japan of new options such as nuclear propulsion for its submarines.

Nobuo Tanaka, Chairman, The Sasakawa Peace Foundation (Chair)Rory Medcalf, Head of College, National Security College, ANUKanwal Sibal, Member, VIF Advisory Council, VIFDennis Blair, Chairman, Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA

Policy Recommendations – Towards Construction of a Stable Security Environment and Peaceful Development in the Indian Ocean Region –

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Mid-Term Oil & Gas Market 2010, IEA

Russian Gas Pipeline to the East + LNG through Arctic

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Russia’s interest in Arctic sea lanes

Putin inaugurated the new Icebraker LNG tanker, “Christophe De Margerie” .

Nuclear Icebraker, ”Arktika”

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China to build "Polar Silk Road" in Arctic: whitepaper

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Blue Print for North East Asia Gas & Pipeline Infrastructure:Dr. Hirata’s Concept

Geopolitics of the Shale Revolution: Strategic Positioning of Oil/Gas exporters and importers

IEA WEO2017 basis31

Solar PV forges ahead in the global power mix

Global average annual net capacity additions by type

China, India & the US lead the charge for solar PV, while the EU is a frontrunner for onshore & offshore wind: rising shares of solar & wind require more flexibility to match power demand & supply

Renewables

Nuclear

Gas

Coal

Renewables

Nuclear

Gas

Coal

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 GW

2010-2016

2017-2040

Solar PV Wind

Solar PV Wind Other

Other

WEO2017

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The future is electrifyingElectricity generation by selected region

India adds the equivalent of today’s European Union to its electricity generation by 2040,

Middle East

2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000

Africa

Southeast Asia

European Union

India

United States

China

TWh

2016 Growth to 2040

Sources of global electricity demand growth

Industrial motors

Cooling

Large appliances

Connected & small

appliances

Electric vehicles

Other

while China adds the equivalent of today’s United States

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Renewables will dominate power capacity additions

WEO2018

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Cost of Solar PV and EV battery

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All sources of flexibility needed

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5

y2

1

Mobilise existing power system flexibility

4

3

Targeted investment in flexibility needed

Flexibility: the cornerstone of tomorrow’s power systems

Phases of integration with variable renewables share, 2017

Higher shares of variable renewables raise flexibility needs and call for reforms to deliver investment in power plants, grids & energy storage, and unlock demand-side response

Integration phase

Wind and solar PV share of generation

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

China

United States

Japan

China

United States

European Union

European Union

Germany

Germany

United Kingdom

United Kingdom

Phases of integration with variable renewables share, 2030

Japan WEO2018

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WEO2017

Average Costs of Power Generation

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Lack of Grid connectivity in Japan

Source: Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, The Federation of Electric Power Companies of Japan, Electric Power System Council of Japan, The International Energy Agency

Tokyo

Hokkaido

Tohoku

HokurikuKansaiChugoku

Kyushu29GW

Shikoku12GW

Chubu 40GW

Okinawa2GW

Hydro

Oil

Gas

Nuclear

Coal

Other

Power utility company

Generating company

In-house generation

--- 50 hz

60 hz <-------

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Figure 13.23 China electricity generation mix by region and net electricity

The map presents data of provinces in China.This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.

Net electricitytrade in 2040 (TWh)

Northwest

North Northeast

Central East

South

Electricitygeneration

500 TWh

CoalGasNuclearHydroWind

OtherSolar PV

2016

2016

2016

2016

2016

2016

2040

2040

2040

2040

2040

2040

11

34

6

3

41

1

173

172

230

The Northwest and Northeast regions become the major exporters of electricity, supplying

a mix of renewables-based and fossil-fuelled generation to the East and Central regions

WEO2017

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Chapter 13 | Outlook for China’s energy demand5

Figure 13.24 China hourly generation mix and electric

ity tra

de for th

e Northwest, N

orth, East a

nd Central regions in

2030

100

200

300

G W

Trade

Wind

SolarPV

Gasandoil

Otherren

ewables

Hydro

Coal

Nuclear

North

west

Day1

Day2

Day3

Day4

Day5

100

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G W

North

Day1

Day2

Day3

Day4

Day5

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300

G W

East

Day1

Day2

Day3

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Day5

Dem

and

100

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Central

Day1

Day2

Day3

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Day5

Expanded tra

nsmissio

n capabilitie

s provide for electric

ity supply and demand to be balanced across C

hina

A , 2 0 1 7

WEO2017

Balancing Power Supply and Demand in China

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Global Energy Interconnection/ GEIDCO by State Grid CC

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BhutanBhutan

Gobi DesertGobi Desert

ShanghaiShanghai

TaipeiTaipei

DelhiDelhi

MumbaiMumbai

SingaporeSingapore

VladivostokVladivostok

ChengduChengdu

BeijingBeijing SeoulSeoul

ManilaManila

DaccaDacca

AsiaSuper Grid

Total 36,000km

Phase 3

BangkokBangkok

Hong KongHong Kong

Kuala LumpurKuala Lumpur

TokyoTokyo

Demand Leveling

(Time Zone & Climate Difference)

Stable Supply

(through regional interdependence)

Fair Electricity Price

Presentation by Mr. Masayoshi SON42

“Energy for Peace in Asia” New Vision?

Asia Super Ring

Masayoshi SON’s proposal

Russia Route

Mongolia China Korea route

Japan

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State Grid

Kepco

Rosetti

Softbank

Power Grid Connection in Europe:Collective Energy Security and Sustainability

Physical energy flows between European countries, 2008 (GWh)

Source: ENTSO-E

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Energy self-sufficiency* by fuel in 2013

Source: Energy Data Center, IEA.

* Self-sufficiency =domestic production /total primary energy supply

Note: Does not include fuels not in the fossil fuels, renewables and nuclear categories.

Collective Energy Security and Sustainabilityby Diversity, Connectivity and Nuclear

10%

14%

14%

20%

1%

44%

13%

24%

25%

18%

8%

19%

35%

19%

10%

1%

10%

1%

1%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

IEA

EU28

KoreaLuxembourg

Belgium

JapanFrance

SpainSlovak Republic

Ireland

Switzerland

Italy

Portugal

Hungary

Turkey

GermanyFinland

Austria

Sweden

GreeceCzech Republic

United KingdomPoland

India

United States

Netherlands

ChinaNew Zealand

Fossil fuels

Renewables

Nuclear

22%

55%

104%

12%

9%

27%

14%

10%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140%

EU28

IEA

ASEAN Fossil fuels

RenewablesNuclear

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A new strategy for energy & sustainable development

Sustainable Development

Scenario

The Sustainable Development Scenario reduces CO2 emissions in line with the objectives of the Paris Agreement, while also tackling air pollution and achieving universal energy access. It

needs doubling the level of energy efficiency, 900 million EVs, 3250 GW of solar PVs.

10

20

30

40

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

GtC

O2

New Policies Scenario

Sustainable Development Scenario

Global CO2 emissions by scenario

WEO2017

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RE100 Corporations156 RE100 companies have made a commitment to go '100% renewable'.

Finance(40): Swiss Re Group, alstria, Amalgamated Bank, Aviva, AXA, Bank of America, Bankia, BBVA, British Land, CaixaBank, Canary Wharf Group, Capital One, Citi, Commerzbank, Credit Agricole, Danske Bank, DBS Bank Ltd, DNB, Equinix, Fifth Third Bancorp, Fuyo General Lease Co., Ltd., Goldman Sachs, Helvetia, HSBC, ING Group, Iron Mountain Incorporated, Johnan Shinkin Bank, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Jupiter Asset Management, Land Securities, Mace, Morgan Stanley, Nordea, Prudential plc, RBS group, Schroders, TD Bank, UBS, VoyaFinancial, Wells FargoDurable Goods and Services (32):IKEA Group, AEON Co., Ltd, BMW, Burberry, Coop Sapporo, Crown Estate, Daiwa House Group, Decathlon, Dentsu Aegis Network, Etsy, FIA Formula E, General Motors, Gürmen Group, H&M, Interface, Kingspan, LEGO Group, Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India, Marks & Spencer, Marui Group, Nike, Inc., Pearson, PVH, Sekisui House, Signify, Sky, Starbucks, Tata Motors Limited, Vail Resorts, VF Corporation, Watami Co., Ltd., YOOX GroupNon-Durables and Services (24): Anheuser-Busch InBev, Califia Farms, Carlsberg Group, Clif Bar & Company, Coca-Cola Enterprises, Colruyt Group, Danone, Diageo, Estée Lauder Companies, Grupo Bimbo, Hatsun Agro Products Ltd, International Flavors and Fragrances Inc., Kellogg, L'OCCITANE Group, Mars, Incorporated, Nestle, Organic Valley, Procter & Gamble, Reckitt Benckiser (RB), TCI Co., Ltd, Tesco, TRIDL, Unilever, WalmartTechnology(21): Adobe, Apple, Autodesk, eBay, Facebook, Fujitsu, Google, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, HP, Inc., Infosys, Lyft, Microsoft, Rackspace, RICOH Company, Ltd., Salesforce, SAP, Sony Corporation , Visa, VMWare, WeWork, WorkdayOther Services(17) ASKUL Corporation, Bloomberg, BROAD Group, ENVIPRO HOLDINGS Inc., Gatwick Airport Limited, Heathrow Airport, IHS Markit, La Poste, McKinsey & Company, PwC, RELX Group, SAVE S.p.A Group, Schneider Electric, SGS, Steelcase, Swiss Post, VaisalaMaterial(8): AkzoNobel, Corbion, Dalmia Cement, Elion Resources Group, Elopak, Givaudan, Royal DSM, Tetra

PakTelecom Services(6): BT Group, KPN, Proximus, Telefonica S.A., T-Mobile US, Inc., Vodafone GroupHealth care(5): AstraZeneca, Biogen, Johnson & Johnson, Novo Nordisk, Royal PhilipsEnergy(1): Vestas

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No Peak Demand happens in New Policies Scenario but in Sustainable Development Scenario

Saudi Aramco is worrying about Peak Demand of Oil by EV.

The Stone Age didn’t end because we ran out of stones.

WEO2017

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PEACEFUL NUCLEAR POWER

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History of Construction of Nuclear Reactors

WEO2014

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Nuclear Power development has been disturbed by major accidents.

For such an alliance to exist, the United States and Japan will need to come to it from the perspective, and as the embodiment, of tier-one nations. In our view, tier-one nations have significant economic weight, capable military forces, global vision, and demonstrated leadership on international concerns. Although there are areas in which the United States can better support the alliance, we have no doubt of the United States’ continuing tier-one status. For Japan, however, there is a decision to be made. Does Japan desire to continue to be a tier-one nation, or is she content to drift into tier-two status?

Energy Security（Nuclear） Understandably, the Fukushima nuclear disaster dealt a major setback to nuclear power. The setback reverberated not only throughout Japan, but also around the world. Japan has made tremendous progress in boosting energy efficiency and is a world leader in energy research and development. While the people of Japan have demonstrated remarkable national unity in reducing energy consumption and setting the world’s highest standards for energy efficiency, a lack of nuclear energy in the near term will have serious repercussions for Japan.

U.S.-Japan Alliance Report by Nye & Armitage (2012/8/10）

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Does Japan desire to continue to be a tier-one nation, or is she content to drift into tier-two status?

2018 World Nuclear Industry Status Report

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Plutonium in the World

53世界の分離プルトニウム保有量（長崎大学核兵器廃絶研究センターデータ）

France71.4

Military Non MilitaryRussia185.5

UK113.5

US87.8

India6.98

China2.94

Israel0.90

Pakistan0.28

DPRK0.04

Japan47.0

Germany0.5

Other1.8

2016 Tons

Time for Safer, Proliferation resistant and Easier Waste Management Paradigm:

Integral Fast Reactor and Pyroprocessing

IFR has features as Inexhaustible Energy Supply ,Inherent Passive Safety ,Long-term Waste Management Solution , Proliferation-Resistance , Economic Fuel Cycle Closure.High level waste reduces radioactivity in 300 years while LWR spent fuel takes 100,000 years.

Dr. YOON IL CHANGArgonne National Laboratory

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Legend of Admiral Rickover: Success of LWR for nuclear submarine has crowded out Fast Reactors

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Statement by Dr. Takashi NAGAI after Nagasaki atomic

bomb. "How to turn the devil to the fortune."

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Dr. Takashi Nagai, a Professor at Nagasaki University in 1945 when the atomic bomb was dropped, exemplifies the resilience, courage and believe in science of the Japanese people. Despite having a severed temporal artery as a result of the bomb, he went to help the victims even before going home. Once he got home, he found his house destroyed and his wife dead. He spent weeks in the hospital where he nearly died from his injuries. But just months after the atom bomb dropped, he said:

“Everything was finished. Our mother land was defeated. Our university had collapsed and classrooms were reduced to ashes. We, one by one, were wounded and fell. The houses we lived in were burned down, the clothes we wore were blown up, and our families were either dead or injured. What are we going to say? We only wish to never repeat this tragedy with the human race. We should utilize the principle of the atomic bomb. Go forward in the research of atomic energy contributing to the progress of civilization. Devil will then be transformed to fortune.( Wazawai tenjite Fukutonasu) The world civilization will change with the utilization of atomic energy. If a new and fortunate world can be made, the souls of so many victims will rest in peace.”