Energy Security and Potential for Thorium

Pacific Operational S&T Conference

21 March 2012

Kevin Stull Science Advisor, Office of Naval Research Global

Problem Statement

• Increasing Demand for Energy and Competition for Natural Resources

• Effects of Pollution and Climate Change on Regions and Potential Population Displacement

Future Security Risks and Potential Conflicts Driven by the following factors and macro-trends in the World:

Energy Factors - by 2030

• 1.4 B - Population Growth• 40% - Increase in Global

Energy Demand• All from Developing World -

Half from China & India• 81% of Energy from Fossil

Fuels• Proven Oil Reserves Depleted

within 45 years (from today)

Oil Price Shock Impacts on Region

PACOM AOR Disproportionately Affected

Environmental Factors

Source: www.pmel.noaa.gov

US Energy Demand (2008)

DoD Dependence on Petroleum

• Up to 77% of DoD’s energy needs from Petroleum

• “…the petroleum needed to operate DoD assets may not remain affordable or even reliably available for the lifespan of these systems…”

• “DoD should ensure that it can operate ALL of its systems on non-petroleum fuels by 2040”

Source: Center for a New American Security, “Fueling the Future Force, Preparing the DoD for a Post-Petroleum Era”, Sept 2010

DoD Operational Energy

• “…energy security is important to NATIONAL SECURITY”

• “The cost of America’s national energy consumption, particularly oil, is too high…the DoD has an opportunity to reduce these costs, both in terms of real spending, and in LEADING THE WAY FOR THE NATION.”

• “…The DoD’s current energy consumption patterns are inconsistent with national strategic goals…including by reducing the nation’s dependence on oil and TRANSFORMING THE US ENERGY ECONOMY”

• The DoD has an interest in long-term national security and should take steps to WORK WITH OTHER FEDERAL AGENCIES AND THE PRIVATE SECTOR to diversify and secure fuel supplies”

Source: DoD “Energy for the Warfighter, Operational Energy Strategy”May 2011

Alternate Energy Form Needed, that is

• Energy dense and abundant • Demonstrated technology• Efficient and Safe operation • Barriers to weaponization and proliferation• Carbon neutral• Minimal waste by-products

Silver Bullet? Maybe…

Thorium?

Thorium Molten Salt Reactor Technology

• Invented and demonstrated at Oak Ridge National Lab in 60s

• Tremendous advantages over traditional Uranium fuel cycle for generating power

• DoD and civilian applications should be explored

• Currently no S&T investments being made in this technology…

Summary

• DoD (our country, and world) need better source of energy

• Status quo is not a viable option• Thorium represents an attractive alternative to

traditional energy sources and should be aggressively pursued through multi-agency and even international partnerships

• Potential game changing benefits if successful• More details from Mr. Kirk Sorensen…

Kevin Stull Science Advisor, Office of Naval Research Global