"Energy Policy and Regulatory Rollbacks: A National Perspective" Frances Beinecke 4:00 p.m....

"Energy Policy and Regulatory Rollbacks: A National Perspective"

Frances Beinecke 4:00 p.m. Wednesday, March 27

1528 CC Little

• Frances Beinecke is Executive Director of the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), which uses law and science to protect the planet's wildlife and wild places and to ensure a safe and healthy environment for all living things.

• Ms. Beinecke will also be having a career discussion with students on Thursday, March 28, 11:30 a.m. in the Honors Lounge (1315-1330 Mason Hall) on "Non-Profits: Employment Opportunities and Strategies."

TODAY:

POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF

CLIMATE CHANGE

Impacts of or risks from climate change, by reason for concern

no or virtually neutral impact or risk

somewhat negative impacts or low risks

more negative impacts or higher risks

Technical Summary Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability; IPCC 2001

Examples of impacts resulting fr om proj ect ed changes in extr emeclimate events: Simple Extr emes

Projected Changes during the21st Century in Extreme ClimatePhenomena and their Likelihooda

Representative Examples of Projected Impactsb

(all high confidence of occurrence in some areasc)

Higher maximum temperatures;more hot days and heat wavesd

over nearly all land areas (VeryLikelya)

• Increased incidence of death & serious illness in older age groups & urban poor

• Increased heat stress in livestock and wildlife

• Shift in tourist destinations

• Increased risk of damage to a number of crops

• Increased electric cooling demand and reduced energy supply reliability

Higher (increasing) minimumtemperatures; fewer cold days,frost days, and cold wavesd overnearly all land areas (Very Likelya)

• Decreased cold-related human morbidity and mortality

• Decreased risk of damage to a number of crops and increased risk to others

• Extended range and activity of some pest and disease vectors

• Reduced heating energy demand

More intense precipitation events(Very Likelya over many areas)

• Increased flood, landslide, avalanche, and mudslide damage

• Increased soil erosion

• Increased flood runoff could increase recharge of some floodplain aquifers

• Increased pressure on government, private flood insurance systems, and

disaster reliefa Likelihood refers to judgmental estimates of confidence used by TAR WGI: very likely (90-99% chance); likely (66-90% chance). Unless otherwise stated,information on climate phenomena is taken from the Summary for Policymakers, TAR WGI.

b These impacts can be lessened by appropriate response measures.c Based on information from chapters in this report; high confidence refers to probabil ities between 67 and 95% as described in Footnote 6 of TAR WGII,Summary for Policymakers.

d Information from TAR WGI, Technical Summary, Section F.5.e Changes in regional distribution of tropical cyclones are possible but have not been established.


Examples of impacts resulting fr om proj ect ed changes in extr emeclimate events: Complex Extr emes

Projected Changes during the21st Century in Extreme ClimatePhenomena and their Likelihooda

Representative Examples of Projected Impactsb

(all high confidence of occurrence in some areasc)

Increased summer drying overmost mid-latitude continentalinteriors and associated risk ofdrought (Likelya)

• Decreased crop yields

• Increased damage to building foundations caused by ground shrinkage

• Decreased water resource quantity and quality

• Increased risk of forest fire

Increase in tropical cyclone peakwind intensities, mean and peakprecipitation intensities (Likelya

over many areas)e

• Increased risks to human life, risk of infectious disease epidemics, and many

other risks

• Increased coastal erosion and damage to coastal buildings and infrastructure

• Increased damage to coastal ecosystems such as coral reefs and mangroves

Intensified droughts and floodsassociated with El Niño events inmany different regions (Likelya)

• Decreased agricultural and rangeland productivity in drought- and flood-prone

regions

• Decreased hydro-power potential in drought-prone regions

Increased Asian summer monsoonprecipitation variability (Likelya)

• Increased flood and drought magnitude and damages in temperate and tropical

Asia

Increased intensity of mid-latitudestorms (little agreement betweencurrent models)d

• Increased risks to human life and health

• Increased property and infrastructure losses

• Increased damage to coastal ecosystemsa Likelihood refers to judgmental estimates of confidence used by TAR WGI: very likely (90-99% chance); likely (66-90% chance). Unless otherwise stated,information on climate phenomena is taken from the Summary for Policymakers, TAR WGI.

b These impacts can be lessened by appropriate response measures.c Based on information from chapters in this report; high confidence refers to probabil ities between 67 and 95% as described in Footnote 6 of TAR WGII,Summary for Policymakers.

d Information from TAR WGI, Technical Summary, Section F.5.e Changes in regional distribution of tropical cyclones are possible but have not been established.


Reminder regarding the effects of deforestation

Examples of the pathology of forest loss

The Harrapan Desert(Western Pakistan)

• The region was once abundantly forested and enjoyed an adequate rainfall during the monsoon season.

• The forest was gradually cleared by peasant farmers who kept cattle and goats that grazed on the scrub grass that replaced the forest trees.

• The rainfall was sustained over the region until rather more than half of the forests had been cleared. But after that the region became arid and the remaining forest decayed.

• The region is now so dry that as a semi-desert it can support only a fraction of the people and other organisms that once were there.

Easter Island One of the most isolated places on Earth 2250 km from the next island; 166 sq km Populated originally by Polynesian

settlers in 400 AD. The island was once abundantly forested

with a species of palm dominant. Islanders grew some vegetables but were

highly dependent on deep sea fishing. Unique statue cult - 800 - 1000 giant

statues, 2 - 10 meters high, 20 - 50 tons Explorers found few survivors, no trees,

and no sea-worthy vessels.

CARBON SEQUESTRATION

“carbon management”

Land Use Issues

Land use change and forestry issues are important to national and global inventories of greenhouse gases:

vegetation can “sequester” or remove CO2 from the atmosphere and store it for potentially long periods in above- and below-ground biomass and in soils.

soils, trees, crops, and other plants may make significant contributions to reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by serving as C “sinks”

humans can alter the biosphere through changes in land use and forest management practices

--> alter the quantities of atmospheric and terrestrial C stocks

--> alter the natural C flux among biomass, soils, & the atmosphere

Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Summary for Policymakers; IPCC 2001

Considerations for biological carbon mitigation options

• potential contributions to C pools over time

• sustainability, security, resilience, permanence, and robustness of the C pool maintained or created

• compatibility with other land-use objectives

• leakage and additionality issues

• economic costs

• environmental impacts other than climate mitigation

• social, cultural, and cross-cutting issues, as well as issues of equity

• the system-wide effects on C flows in the energy and materials sector

Climate Change 2001: Mitigation; IPCC 2001

Carbon Sequestration: Removal and storage of atmospheric CO2

• Forests: increasing timber growth– Regeneration and stocking control

• Replant under-stocked forest stands; harvest and regenerate mature stands

• GHG reduction potential: U.S. forests could sequester ~ 160 MMTC/yr (~ 9% of annual U.S. GHG emissions)

• Rate of sequestration depends on forest age and cannot be sustained indefinitely

– Biofuels production• Increase production and harvest of biomass for use as fossil fuel

substitute

• GHG reduction potential: growing biofuel on 25,000 acres could offset fossil fuel use and reduce GHG emissions by ~ 35 - 63 MMTC/yr. ( ~ 2 - 3.5%)

– Afforestation http://www.4cleanair.org


• Agriculture: increasing soil carbon content– Conservation tillage and crop residue management

• Retains crop residue on or near soil surface

• GHG reduction potential: ~ 35 - 107 MMTC/yr.

– Improved cropping systems

– Restoring degraded soils; reducing soil erosion

http://www.4cleanair.org


• Oceans: increasing delivery of C to deep ocean

– direct injection• capture, separation, transport, and injection of CO2 into the deep sea

– Fertilization• add iron to areas that are N- and P- rich --> phytoplankton blooms

(“prime the biological pump”)

Biological Pump

Ocean Carbon Storage

Direct Injection of CO2 into the mid-water column seeks to short circuit the natural delivery of CO2 into the deep sea and minimize environmental impacts by avoiding the biologically rich upper 1000 m.

BUSH RESPONSE

2002

The Clear Skies Initiative - Climate Impacts

Cuts SO2 emissions by 73% (direct and indirect forcing)

2002 emissions: 11 million tons

2010 emissions: 4.5 million tons


Cuts NOx emissions by 67% (indirect forcing)




EPA Newsroom February 14, 2002, President Bush Announcement

Global Climate Change Initiative

Cut greenhouse gas intensity by 18% by 2012

GHG intensity: the ratio of GHG emissions to economic output

2002 GHG intensity: 183 metric tons / million $ GDP

2010 GHG intensity: 151 metric tons / million $ GDP

Improve GHG registry

enhance measurement accuracy, reliability and verifiability

consider emerging domestic and international approaches

Protect & provide transferable credit for emission reductionsto encourage voluntary reductions registration

to give credit to companies that can show real emissions reductions


Global Climate Change Initiative, cont’d.

Review progress on climate change/take additional action if needed in 2012

Enhanced funding for climate change-related programsFY 2003: 4.5 B$ for global climate change-related activities (700 M$ inc.)

New and expanded domestic and international policies

expanded research & development of climate-related science & technology

expanded use of renewable energybusiness sector challengesimprovements in the transportation sector

incentives for sequestrationenhanced support for climate observation & mitigation in the developing world


WHAT CAN I DO?

Individual Emissions

• In the US, ~ 6.6 tons (almost 15,000 pounds C equivalent) of greenhouse gases are emitted per person annually – ~ 82%

• burning fossil fuels to generate electricity and power personal vehicles

– ~ 18%• methane from wastes in our landfills, raising livestock, natural gas

pipelines, coal, industrial chemicals and other sources

Your Emissions• You can affect ~ 32% of the total emissions per person (~ 4,800 pounds

of C equivalent) by the choices you make in three areas of your life:– the electricity we use in our homes– the waste we produce– personal transportation

The other 68% of emissions are affected more by the types of industries in the U.S., the types of offices we use, how our food is grown, and other factors.

http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/emissions/individual/index.html

What you can do – a short list

• Use compact fluorescent light bulbs. They use one-fourth the energy and keep half a ton ofCO2 out of the atmosphere.

• Be sure your home is well insulated – 40% of home energy use is for heating and cooling.

• Purchase appliances with the "Energy Star" rating from the U.S. Environmental ProtectionAgency*. They're more efficient and will cost you less to operate.

• If you live in a cold climate, lower your thermostat. If you live in a warm climate, raise it.Turn it off when nobody is home.

• Turn your water heater down to 130 F and wrap in an insulating blanket.

• Purchase a more fuel-efficient vehicle next time.

• Avoid driving when you can; use public transportation, car pool, bike or walk.

• Contact your local, state and national representatives and tell them that this issue isimportant to you! Pressure them to develop a comprehensive response to the global /climate change issue.

*A full listing of these appliances is available on the EPA's online Energy Star website.

This list modified from <http://www.worldwildlife.org/graphics/space_wht.gif>A longer list: http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/emissions/individual/index.html

Suggested Reading

• Ethics of Consumption: The Good Life, Justice, and Global Stewardship– D. A. Crocker and T. Linden, Editors, 1998

• Our Ecological Footprint: Reducing Human Impact on the Earth– M. Wackernagel and W. Rees, 1996

• Earth at a Crossroads: Paths to a Sustainable Future– H. Bossel, 1998

NEXT:

CASE STUDIES (3/27) CHINA AND THE USA

STRATOSPHERIC (3/29)OZONE DEPLETION

"Energy Policy and Regulatory Rollbacks: A National Perspective" Frances Beinecke 4:00 p.m....

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