Energy Needs for Pakistan

5/26/2018 Energy Needs for Pakistan

1/27

Energy Needs: Financial and TechnologyImplications for Pakistan


2/27

Sequence

Introduction

Overview

Statement of the Problem

Energy Needs

Financial and Technology Implications

Conclusion

Way Forward2


3/27

Introduction

Pakistan is facing a huge energy challenge with

concomitant financial and technology implications. These

implications must be taken into account if Pakistans

large and ever expanding population is to secure a

prosperous and stable future.

3


4/27

Overview

Primary Energy Demand: Gas (47.56%), Oil (32.04%), Hydro (11.77%), Coal (6.74%), Nuclear (1.27%) ,

LPG (0.53%)

Final Energy Demand:

Gas (43.21%), Oil (28.97%), Electricity (16.17%), Coal (10.35%), LPG

(1.29%)

Pakistan is faced with domestic energy supply shortages of coal, oil,

and natural gas, as well as a shortage of hydro generation capacities

Several Studies have assessed Pakistans future energy needs

Pakistan Energy year Hand Book 2012 4


5/27

Statement of the Problem

Growing population and depleting energy resources imply that

securing energy supply sources will be critical for Pakistans

economic growth. However these energy needs have

concomitant financial and technology implications that

become binding with constrained fiscal space. The challenge

is to remove/relax the binding financial and technology

constraints ensuring energy security and economic growth.5


6/27

Energy Needs

Energy Security Action Plan (2005-2030) Energy Demand is expected to rise 7 fold from 55 million tons of oil equivalent

(MTOE) to 360 MTOE by 2030.

Demand for power generation would increase over 8 fold from 19,540 MW in

2005 to 162,590 MW in 2030

Planning Power NTDC, 2011-2035

Forecasts power generation for various growth rates

Electricity generation demand would grow by 7.61% to 798514GWh in 2035

6


7/27

Planning Power NTDC, 2011-2035 7

Energy Needs

GDP 4.8%

GDP 5.9%

GDP 6.5%


8/27

Energy Needs

GDP Growth Rate of 5.9%

Year Peak Demand (MW)

2015

2020

30510

45398

2030 134814

Planning Power NTDC 2011-2035 8


9/27

Energy Needs

Integrated Energy Plan 2009-2022

Expected GDP growth rate of 4.8% primary energy demand in

case of BAU (Business as Usual) is expected to be 122.46

MTOE for the period by 2022

Domestic energy resources are expected to supply 88.23

MTOE by 2022

Large energy deficit would have to be met through imports of

Hydrocarbons

Integrated Energy Plan

2009-2022 9


10/27

Petroleum Institute of Pakistan 10

Energy Needs


11/27

Energy Needs

Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific 2013

BAU case 2010-35

GDP growth of 3.4 % and Population growth rate of 1.4%

Primary energy demand of Pakistan will grow at a rate of

2.2%

Projected to increase from 84.6 Mtoe in 2010 to 145.8 Mtoein 2035

11


12/27

Energy Needs

Energy Outlook for As and the Pacific 2013 12


13/27

Energy Needs

Energy Outlook Asia and the Pacific 2013:

Domestic production of gas will decline from the current 38.4

billion cubic meters (bcm) to 13 bcm in 2035

Net Imports of gas is expected to rise to 81%

Oil import dependency may rise to nearly 88% by 2035 if

domestic oil production is maintained at a constant level

13


14/27

14

Energy Needs


15/27


Security Action Plan 2005-30

Investment of US$ 150 billion required in the energy sector during the

next 25 years

Integrated Energy Plan 2009-22

In case of BAU the total import bill 34.23 MMTOE with a constant

value of US$ 70 BBL could lead to imports of US$ 41 billion in 2022

With a better energy mixoil import could be kept to US$17 billion in 2022

15


16/27


Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific 2010-2035

BAU case

Pakistan requires and investment of US$ 116 billion

Pakistans cumulative energy investment as share of GDP

would be 4%

Major share of this investment would be in Electricity

generation16


17/27

Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific 2010-2035 17

Cumulative Energy Investment as Share of GDP (%)


18/27


Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific 2013 18

Sectoral Investment 2010-2035

i i l d h l li i


19/27


Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific 2010-2035

Alternative case

Pakistan could save 10.3% of primary energy demand

Pakistan saves 15.0 Mtoe by 2035

Pakistans cumulative Investment would be larger than BAU case to the

tune of 45.5% ( US$ 116 billion + US$ 52.7 billion=US$ 168.7 billion)

Advantages in terms of energy security and lower emissions outweigh

the financial cost

19


20/27

20

Comparison of BAU and

Alternative for Pakistan

Sectoral Savings for Pakistan



21/27

Conclusion

Energy savings efforts on the demand side and the use of

high efficiency technologies on the supply side would

require a sustained and large capital investments over a

long period of time.

21


22/27

Way Forward

Substantial demand-side and supply side investments

Efficient utilization of indigenous energy sources

Securing affordable and reliable energy import sources

Restructuring of Electricity Sector

Developing energy finance capability

22


23/27

Way Forward

WE CAN WRITE OUR FUTURE WITH OUR

ACTIONS IN THE PRESENT

23


24/27

24

THANK YOU


25/27

Source: State Bank of Pakistan 25

Financialand Technology Implications

Value of Oil Imports in US$ billion


26/27

Financialand Technology Implications

Integrated Energy Plan 2009-2022 26


27/27

ForAsia and the Pacific

Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific 2010-2035 27

Difference between investments in BAU and Alternative cases

Energy Needs for Pakistan

Documents

Transcript of Energy Needs for Pakistan