Energy Issues and the Impacts on Freight Transportation Dr. Mark Rodekohr Energy Information...
Transcript of Energy Issues and the Impacts on Freight Transportation Dr. Mark Rodekohr Energy Information...
Energy Issues and the Impacts on Freight Transportation
Dr. Mark Rodekohr
Energy Information Administration
May 17, 2006
Presentation Organization
• Short-Term Fuel Price Outlook for Freight Fuels
• Longer Term Outlook for the Freight Sector
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price(Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval*)
*The confidence intervals show +/- 2 standard errors based on the properties of the model.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08
Dollarsper
barrel
Forecast
U.S. Distillate Fuel Prices
0255075
100125150175200225250275300325350
Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08
Retail Diesel Retail Heating Oil WTI Crude Oil
Forecast
Cents
per
gallon
*Includes OPEC non-crude production, MMBD= million barrels per day
Growth in World Consumption & Non-OPEC Production
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2003-Q1 2003-Q3 2004-Q1 2004-Q3 2005-Q1 2005-Q3 2006-Q1 2006-Q3 2007-Q1 2007-Q3
MM
BD
Ch
ang
e fr
om
pre
vio
us
year
-7
0
7
14
21
28
$ P
er B
arre
l Ch
ang
e fr
om
Pre
vio
us
Yea
r
DemandNon-OPEC Supply*WTI Crude Oil Price
Demand growth exceeds
non-OPEC supply growth
Forecast
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1991-1997
Average
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
World Oil Surplus Production Capacity
Forecast
Million barrels per day
Major Events and World Oil Prices1970-2005
0
20
40
60
80
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Refiner Acquisition Cost of Imported Crude Oil (Saudi Light Official Price for 1970-73)
Oil Embargo
Iranian Revolution
Iran-Iraq War Begins
Saudis abandon "swing producer" role
Iraq Invades Kuwait
Operation Desert Storm
OPEC cutbacks
9/11 attacks
Venezuela Unrest
Strong Demand Growth
Asian Economic Crisis
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita Strike U.S. Gulf Coast
dollars per barrel
EIA Has Reassessed Its Long-Term Oil Price Projection
• Major oil producing countries pace investment more consistent with higher oil price path
• Investment impediments more persistent, even after several years of relatively higher oil prices
• Cost of doing business increasing
• Not due to “Peak Oil” considerations, although we are following this issue closely
0
20
40
60
80
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
History
AEO2005
AEO2006
World Oil Price, 1980-2030(2004 dollars per barrel)
History Projections
Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
U.S. Petroleum Consumption by Sector, 1970-2030(million barrels per day)
0
5
10
15
20
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Industrial
Transportation
Residential and Commercial
Electric Power
ProjectionsHistory
Annual Energy Outlook 2006
U.S. Transportation Energy Consumption by Mode, 1980-2030(quadrillion Btu)
0
5
10
15
20
25
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
ProjectionsHistory
Annual Energy Outlook 2006
Light-Duty Vehicles
Rail
Freight Trucks
Water
Air
Bus
U.S. Heavy-Duty Vehicle Energy Consumption, 1980-2030(quadrillion Btu)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
ProjectionsHistory
Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
AEO2006AEO2005
U.S. Heavy-Duty Travel, 1980-2030(billion miles)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
ProjectionsHistory
Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
AEO2006AEO2005
U.S. Heavy-Duty Vehicle Efficiency, 1980-2030(miles per gallon)
5
6
7
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
ProjectionsHistor
y
Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
AEO2006
AEO2005
U.S. Heavy-Duty Vehicle Sales, 1980-2030(thousands)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
ProjectionsHistory
Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
AEO2006
AEO2005
U.S. Heavy-Duty Vehicle Technology Penetration, 2000-2030(percent)
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
2000 2010 2020 2030
Annual Energy Outlook 2006
Internal Friction Reduction
Advanced Drag Reduction
Advanced Fuel Injection
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
U.S. Transportation Fuel Use in Two Technology Cases(percent change from reference case)
2005 Technology
High Technology
Light-DutyVehicles
FreightTrucks Aircraft Light-Duty
VehiclesFreightTrucks Aircraft
2010 2030
Annual Energy Outlook 2006
World Transportation Sector Energy Use by Region, 2002-2025 (quadrillion Btu)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2002 2010 2015 2020 2025
Mature Market Economies Transitional Economies Emerging Economies
International Energy Outlook 2005
World Oil Reserves by Country, as of January 1, 2006(billion barrels)
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Rest of WorldUnited
IndonesiaEcuador
AngolaOmanIndia
AzerbaijanNorway
KazakhstanBrazil
AlgeriaMexico
QatarChina
United StatesNigeria
LibyaRussia
VenezuelaUAE
KuwaitIraqIran
CanadaSaudi Arabia
Oil & Gas Journal, Vol. 103, No. 47 (December 19, 2005).
World Total =1,293 Billion Barrels