Energy Indicators for Sustainable · PDF fileEnergy Indicators for Sustainable Development...
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IAEAInternational Atomic Energy Agency
Energy Indicators forSustainable Development
Alan McDonaldDepartment of Nuclear Energy, IAEA
Learning CentreCSD-14 • New York • 4 May 2006
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IAEA 2
Downloadable from the web
• http://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/publications/PDF/Pub1222_web.pdf
• http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/toc/narf/29/4
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IAEA 3
Genesis of EISD
• 1995 work initiated by DESA• Agenda 21, Chapter 40
• Development and promotion of indicators for sustainable development
• 3 energy indicators• Annual energy use per capita• Share of consumption of renewable resources• Intensity of energy use
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IAEA 4
Capacity building for energy analysis
• Transfer analytic tools tailored to developing countries
• Transfer data on technologies, resources and economics
• Train local experts• Jointly analyze national options• Help establish continuing local expertise
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IAEA 5
ISED
• 5 agencies• UNDESA, OECD/IEA,
IAEA, Eurostat, EEA
• 7 countries• Brazil, Cuba,
Lithuania, Mexico, Russia, Slovakia, Thailand
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IAEA 6
Design objectives
• Match UN format• Main themes, sub-themes• Social, economic, environmental, institutional
• Match data availability in most countries• Clarity and consistency• Relevant to policy assessment for
sustainability• Pilot testing / adjustment for usability
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IAEA 7
30 indicators
• 4 social• 16 economic• 10 environmental
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IAEA 8
Social (SOC1)
• Theme: Equity• Sub-theme: Accessibility• Indicator: Share of households (or population)
without electricity or commercial energy, or heavily dependent on non-commercial energy
• Components:• Households (or population) without electricity or
commercial energy, or heavily dependent on noncommercial energy
• Total number of households or population
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IAEA 9
Social (SOC2)
• Theme: Equity• Sub-theme: Affordability• Indicator: Share of household income spent on
fuel and electricity • Components:
• Household income spent on fuel and electricity• Household income (total and poorest 20% of population)
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IAEA 10
Social (SOC3)
• Theme: Equity• Sub-theme: Disparities• Indicator: Household energy use for each income
group and corresponding fuel mix• Components:
• Energy use per household for each income group (quintiles)
• Household income for each income group (quintiles)• Corresponding fuel mix for each income group (quintiles)
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IAEA 11
Social (SOC4)
• Theme: Health• Sub-theme: Safety• Indicator: Accident fatalities per energy produced
by fuel chain• Components:
• Annual fatalities by fuel chain• Annual energy produced
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IAEA 12
Economic (ECO1)
• Theme: Use and production patterns• Sub-theme: Overall use• Indicator: Energy use per capita• Components:
• Energy use (total primary energy supply, total final consumption and electricity use)
• Total population
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IAEA 13
Economic (ECO2)
• Theme: Use and production patterns• Sub-theme: Overall productivity• Indicator: Energy use per unit of GDP• Components:
• Energy use (total primary energy supply, total final consumption and electricity use)
• GDP
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IAEA 14
Economic (ECO3)
• Theme: Use and production patterns• Sub-theme: Supply efficiency• Indicator: Efficiency of energy conversion and
distribution• Components:
• Losses in transformation systems including losses in electricity generation, transmission and distribution
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IAEA 15
Economic (ECO4)
• Theme: Use and production patterns• Sub-theme: Production• Indicator: Rreserves-to-production ratio• Components:
• Proven recoverable reserves• Total energy production
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IAEA 16
Economic (ECO5)
• Theme: Use and production patterns• Sub-theme: Production• Indicator: Resources-to-production ratio• Components:
• Total estimated resources• Total energy production
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IAEA 17
Economic (ECO6)
• Theme: Use and production patterns• Sub-theme: End use• Indicator: Industrial energy intensities• Components:
• Energy use in industrial sector and by manufacturing branch
• Corresponding value added
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IAEA 18
Economic (ECO7)
• Theme: Use and production patterns• Sub-theme: End use• Indicator: Agricultural energy intensities• Components:
• Energy use in agricultural sector• Corresponding value added
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IAEA 19
Economic (ECO8)
• Theme: Use and production patterns• Sub-theme: End use• Indicator: Service/commercial energy intensities• Components:
• Energy use in service/commercial sector• Corresponding value added
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IAEA 20
Economic (ECO9)
• Theme: Use and production patterns• Sub-theme: End use• Indicator: Household energy intensities• Components:
• Energy use in households and key energy use• Number of households, floor area, persons per
household, appliance ownership
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IAEA 21
Economic (ECO10)
• Theme: Use and production patterns• Sub-theme: End use• Indicator: Transport energy intensities• Components:
• Energy use in passenger travel and freight sectors and by mode
• Passenger-km travel and tonne-km freight and by mode
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IAEA 22
Economic (ECO11)
• Theme: Use and production patterns• Sub-theme: Diversification (fuel mix)• Indicator: Fuel shares in energy and electricity• Components:
• Primary energy supply and final consumption, electricity generation and generating capacity by fuel type
• Total primary energy supply, total final consumption, total electricity generation and total generating capacity by fuel type
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IAEA 23
Economic (ECO12)
• Theme: Use and production patterns• Sub-theme: Diversification (fuel mix)• Indicator: Non-carbon energy share in energy and
electricity• Components:
• Primary supply, electricity generation and generating capacity by non-carbon energy
• Total primary energy supply, total electricity generation and total generating capacity
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IAEA 24
Economic (ECO13)
• Theme: Use and production patterns• Sub-theme: Diversification (fuel mix)• Indicator: Renewable energy share in energy and
electricity• Components:
• Primary energy supply, final consumption and electricity generation and generating capacity by renewable energy
• Total primary energy supply, total final consumption, total electricity generation and total generating capacity
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IAEA 25
Economic (ECO14)
• Theme: Use and production patterns• Sub-theme: Prices• Indicator: End use energy prices by fuel and by
sector• Components:
• Energy prices (with and without tax/subsidy)
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IAEA 26
Economic (ECO15)
• Theme: Security• Sub-theme: Imports• Indicator: Net energy import dependency• Components:
• Energy imports• Total primary energy supply
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IAEA 27
Economic (ECO16)
• Theme: Security• Sub-theme: Strategic fuel stocks• Indicator: Stocks of critical fuels per
corresponding fuel consumption• Components:
• Stocks of critical fuel (e.g. oil, gas, etc.)• Critical fuel consumption
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IAEA 28
Environmental (ENV1)
• Theme: Atmosphere• Sub-theme: Climate change• Indicator: GHG emissions from energy production
and use per capita and per unit of GDP• Components:
• GHG emissions from energy production and use• Population and GDP
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IAEA 29
Environmental (ENV2)
• Theme: Atmosphere• Sub-theme: Air quality• Indicator: Ambient concentrations of air pollutants
in urban areas• Components:
• Concentrations of pollutants in air
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IAEA 30
Environmental (ENV3)
• Theme: Atmosphere• Sub-theme: Air quality• Indicator: Air pollutant emissions from energy
systems• Components:
• Air pollutant emissions
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IAEA 31
Environmental (ENV4)
• Theme: Water• Sub-theme: Water quality• Indicator: Contaminant discharges in liquid
effluents from energy systems including oil discharges
• Components:• Contaminant discharges in liquid effluents
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IAEA 32
Environmental (ENV5)
• Theme: Land• Sub-theme: Soil quality• Indicator: Soil area where acidification exceeds
critical loads• Components:
• Affected soil area• Critical load
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IAEA 33
Environmental (ENV6)
• Theme: Land• Sub-theme: Forest• Indicator: Rate of deforestation attributed to
energy use• Components:
• Forest area at two different times• Biomass utilization
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IAEA 34
Environmental (ENV7)
• Theme: Land• Sub-theme: Solid waste generation and
management• Indicator: Ratio of solid waste generation to units
of energy produced• Components:
• Amount of solid waste• Energy produced
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IAEA 35
Environmental (ENV8)
• Theme: Land• Sub-theme: Solid waste generation and
management• Indicator: Ratio of solid waste properly disposed
of to total generated solid waste• Components:
• Amount of solid waste properly disposed of• Total amount of solid waste
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IAEA 36
Environmental (ENV9)
• Theme: Land• Sub-theme: Solid waste generation and
management• Indicator: Ratio of solid radioactive waste to units
of energy produced• Components:
• Amount of radioactive waste (cumulative for a selected period of time)
• Energy produced
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IAEA 37
Environmental (ENV10)
• Theme: Land• Sub-theme: Solid waste generation and
management• Indicator: Ratio of solid radioactive waste awaiting
disposal to total generated solid radioactive waste• Components:
• Amount of radioactive waste awaiting disposal• Total volume of radioactive waste
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IAEA 38
Not a test or a contest
• Unlike some other indicators, ISED are meant to be used for national analyses – UN system.
• They are not meant to set up pass-fail situations or international benchmarking, although others do use indicators in this way.
• Indicators judge according to established criteria –they do not judge between good and bad
• Intended to motivate the question, “Why?”
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IAEA 39
Indicators need context
• Each ISED gives an indication of one aspect of energy use
• Each needs to be read together with other indicators
• Need to be read in the context of each country’s economy and resources
• Indicators have proper applications and limitations
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IAEA 40
Indicators as a tool
• Indicators are not magic, do not generate magic numbers or magic answers
• Need thoughtful interpretation in context to avoid false identification of causality, etc.
• Can inform policy decisions, help gauge policy effectiveness and unintended consequences
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IAEA 41
Electricity access in Ghana
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2003 2015 2030
elec
tric
ity a
cces
s
urban rural
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IAEA 42
Energy intensities in Thailand
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IAEA 43
Energy intensity of GDP
TPES/GDP (toe per thousand $)
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
Austria Bangladesh Egypt
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IAEA 44
Share of Traditional Energy Use in Total Energy (%)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Austria Bangladesh Egypt
1980 1996
Traditional energy use
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IAEA 45
Commodity prices
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IAEA 46
Brazil net import reduction (1/2)
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Impo
rts
as s
hare
of t
otal
TPES Oil and Oil products
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IAEA 47
Brazil net import reduction (2/2)
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IAEA 48
Checking assumptions
• One case study checked the assumptions and results of a national energy plan by analysing the ISED.
• The plan makes separate and inconsistent assumptions for electricity/GDP intensity, electricity supply and GDP growth.
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IAEA 49
The assumptions
• The plan assumes a reduction in electricity intensity per unit of GDP.
• The assumed level of reduction implies a dramatic and sudden reversal of the long term trend in electricity consumption per unit of GDP.
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IAEA 50
Electricity intensity of GDP
Electricity/GDP
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
GW
h/ b
illio
n cu
rren
cy u
nits
Historical Planned
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IAEA 51
National plan - implied decoupling
• Current National Electricity Plan
• Ratio of growth rates 0.43 between 2011 & 2015
• Low compared to Japan & U.S.A
0.431.74.02011-2015
0.542.75.02006-2010
1.055.45.12001-2005
1.648.15.01996-2000-0.77
1.5511.67.51991-1995
0.950.781.2911.28.71981-1990
1.131.032.0915.67.51971-1980
JapanU.S.ARatio of growth rates
(B/A)Electricity demand
growth rate (B)GDP growth rate
(A)
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Effect of assumed intensities
• These ratios imply an unrealistic rate of GDP/electricity decoupling, inconsistent with growth aspirations.
• The kind of efficiency ratios assumed could probably only be achieved through extremely high taxes, neither acceptable nor feasible to impose.
• Such taxes would result in inefficient factor substitution, major sectoral shifts, ultimately capital flight, and lower GDP.
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The consequences
• If the intensity goals are enforced, the supply of electricity will be reduced, and GDP growth will dampen.
• GDP growth as assumed can never be attained, and in fact falls over time.
• Electricity /GDP intensity may in fact settle into a new equilibrium close to its original value, but at a lower level of economic growth.
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IAEA 54
Brazil: matching indicators to policies
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QC tool for analytical thinking
• In summary: ISED have multiple uses:• Clarifying statistical information• Checking progress of past policies • Providing a reality check on SD policies• All three, combined with energy system
modelling, can be of great benefit. This marriage of indicators and scenario modelling is now our focus.
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Current implementation
• Add indicators to IAEA analytic tools• Models calculate indicators• Include in databases• Include in transfer and training
• Two more possibilities• CDM assessment by countries• Used by individual partnerships where
appropriate
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IAEA 57
New Brazil and South Africa studies
• “Designing Country Profiles on Sustainable Energy Development”• Partnerships Fair• Thursday, May 4• 4:30 – 5:10 pm• Conference Room 6
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IAEA
…atoms for peace.