Energy Futures
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Transcript of Energy Futures
ENERGY FUTURESREASONS TO BE CHEERFUL?
ROYSTON SELLMAN
Thomas Fulljames’ watercolour of his own plans for the Severn Barrage - 1849
ABOUT MEPhysicist
• learnt to program computers (1974)• seemed easier than physics
Programmer• building models of things on computers• sewage plant, epidemics, domestic energy use (1982)
Research at Apple and Hewlett Packard• 2 or 3 years on Sustainability
Now work at Centre for Sustainable Energy in Bristol• modelling government energy policies on computers• currently researching how Smart Meters can help save energy
ASSUMPTIONSHuman-made Global Warming is real
• Will disrupt many systems (Agriculture, Transport, Health)
• Will be cheaper to reduce GHG emissions than to adapt to warming on reasonable timescales
• We’ve already done some damage: “Past and future anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions will continue to contribute to warming and sea level rise for more than a millennium, due to the timescales required for removal of this gas from the atmosphere” IPCC Summary for Policymakers
ASSUMPTIONSPeak Oil is happeningThere is lots of Coal and GasGoal is to get to zero carbon by 2050
To run our societies off renewable energy is more elegant than burning fossil fuels or nuclear fission
THE PROBLEM
PERSPECTIVES
THE PROBLEM
THE PROBLEM
CAN WE DO IT?
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WHAT WILL HAPPEN?
HE WHO TELLS YOU HE KNOWS THE FUTURE IS LYING, EVEN IF HE TURNS OUT TO BE RIGHT – THE KORAN
NREAPNational Renewable Energy Action Plan
• The Coalition’s Fairly Ambitious Renewables Target• 15% of UK Energy from Renewables by 2020• 30% Reduction in GHG Emissions
Assumes we electrify our energy mix
Prodigious amounts of Wind• Over a third of the total
NREAPOne Fifth is Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation
• Not very clear where the fuel will come from
Expecting a lot from Heat Pumps• I believe in the physics but…• Expensive – can they catalyse electrification of energy use?• We need hard data on these in the UK
EFFICIENCY IN HOUSINGNew Build
• BREEAM• PassivHaus
Old Build• Insulate, Insulate, Insulate• Hard to treat houses (e.g. most of Edale)• Solid wall insulation – internal and external
Draught ProofingBoilersLighting
• Incandescent → Compact Flourescent → LED
EFFICIENCY IN INDUSTRYThe Big Three:
• Steel• Cement• Chemicals
SMART 2020 Report• 15% cut across the board by 2020 through improved use of IT
Cradle-to-Cradle Design• Beyond recycling
EFFICIENCY IN INDUSTRYNumber four emitter: Paper & Pulp Industry
Potential GHG Emissions Savings: 120 Million tonnes per year
EFFICIENCY IN TRANSPORT, FOODElectric Vehicles
• Grid Power is more efficient than internal combustion engine• Regenerative Braking
Air Travel• Air Passenger Duty does not incentivise efficiency• Duty on Jet Fuel?
Food• Waste is huge• Beef, Lamb are Energy Intensive• Pork and Cheese lower and about the same• Chicken can be about the same as tomatoes• GM Crops?
SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAICLearning Rate = 19% per doubling of production
Production is doubling every 2 years
Now probably under $1.50 per Watt
WINDNREAP Goal is 117 TWh/year by 2020 ~4kWh per person per day (ppd)Other studies point a way to 20kWh ppdLearning Rate also 18% (similar to PV but production only doubles every 2.5 years to 2020)
BIOFUELNot Ethanol – neither non-cellulosic nor cellulosic
• Problematic even from sugar cane
Burning Our Waste• Problems of location
Some Wood• Can be good locally• Pellets from wood waste
MICROGENERATION IN YOUR OWN HOMESolar Photovoltaic (PV)
• 4kWp (peak) now under £10,000 (~10 kWh per day)• expect further big price falls (I am waiting for £1 per Watt)• in future: integrate with Electric Vehicle e.g. 30 million cars at
50kWh = 1500GWh of electricity storage
Solar ThermalPVT (Photovoltaic and Thermal)
FIT (Feed In Tariff)RHI (Renewable Heat Incentive)
CHP?Combined Heat and Power
OK in District Heating Schemes• Not domestic CHP boilers
“Rejected heat from power stations could meet UK heating needs”• Qualified yes from old power stations• Not from new. Better to use it to generate more electricity
Check out the National Heat Map!
THE NATIONAL HEAT MAP
http://ceo.decc.gov.uk/nationalheatmap/
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IT’S 2020. HOW ARE WE DOING?
WHAT COULD POSSIBLY GO WRONG?
THE JEVONS PARADOXWilliam Stanley Jevons: if the efficiency with which a resource is consumed increases, then consumption of that resource tends to increase
Could be a concern as we electrify our energy mix
Current UK wind energy now essential but has not reduced our FF burn
GAS GLUTNatural Gas price has halved in the US from 2 years ago
• Back to dollar price of 2002• Global effect
Caused by over-production, partly from fracking• Use this to counter fracking here in UK
Affects economics of investment in other energy sources• particularly renewables
Could last to 2030 or beyond (estimates very vague)
COAL LEARNING RATE ??
Being used to justifyinvestment in CCS – Carbon Capture andSequestration
FOSSIL FUELS ARE STILL CHEAPReal costs are hidden, you can’t see greenhouse gasesThey are subsidised
• UK mostly through tax (8% VAT)• But also tax credits for much investment• Airline fuel almost tax-free
Renewables tend to have higher CAPEX but lower OPEX and environmental cost than fossil fuels
• Have to overcome the barrier to entry• Offshore wind subsidy is about 7 pence / kWh
We need a carbon price
THE INCUMBENTS ARE POWERFULThey have had 150 years of close working with government
• entanglement is often complex (GazProm, EDF etc)
Mostly regulated industries• Clumsy• Many barriers to innovation• Skewed market conditions• Obsolete infrastructure
Renewables have a mountain to climb
TALK THEIR LANGUAGE
THE ENERGY INCUMBENTS ARE POWERFUL
MACC, ERIC AND REFThis is a MACC:
MACC, ERIC AND REFThis is an ERIC:
I WENT TO PRISONThis is what an ERIC can do:
Santa Rita JailAlameda CountyCalifornia
ASK THE REF 1Renewable Energy Finance
• Big financial companies are watching• CAPEX & OPEX go topsy-turvy• Justify CAPEX on basis of OPEX• Optimise Production and Investment Tax Credits for renewables
Use Future Savings and Constant OPEX as a principle• Keep bills constant, fund renewables from future savings• Green Deal: Imperfect prototype• Feed-In-Tariff (FIT) flip-flop has been disaster• Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI)
ASK THE REF 2When politicians go flopsy-wopsy
• Demand stability• Parity with fossil fuel burners• Use equivalent financial arguments
For Example• Question CAPEX, OPEX, ITCs and Carbon Credit of CCS
where the CO2 is used to recover more oil
HOW TO MAKE IT GO RIGHTBehaviour
• Back to my tank: it made me changeJapan
• Post-Fukushima “Setsuden”• Consumption 20% off peak• Wind & PV could replace 60% of turned off nuclear by 2020• Shaking up their big power companies (even worse than ours)• FIT driving 148GWp of renewables by 2030 (about 15kWh ppd)
Develop Pro-Renewable Arguments• Wading birds or Severn Barrage?• Are Wind Turbines ugly?
Talk their language MACC, ERIC, IRR, PTC, ITC
NUCLEAR?
THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM
WHY I’M AGAINST A NUCLEAR SOLUTION 1Government should aim primarily to get us to Consumption/Renewables balance
• Economic forces will keep the lights on (primarily using gas)
Nuclear Risk?• Radiation: Fukushima spent fuel nearly caught fire• Cost: How much to make Fukushima reactors safe?
UK would need a new reactor fleet• Need “breeder” reactors, cost unproven• £2 billion per year current fleet decommissioning
Government can fund research (e.g. Thorium reactors)
WHY I’M AGAINST A NUCLEAR SOLUTION 2Nuclear Fusion
• ZETA →
• ITER - €1.4 billion per year EU project
THANK YOU!
AT LAST THE END