ENERGY FUTURES REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL? ROYSTON SELLMAN Thomas Fulljames’ watercolour of his own...

ENERGY FUTURES

REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL?

ROYSTON SELLMAN

Thomas Fulljames’ watercolour of his own plans for the Severn Barrage - 1849

ABOUT ME

Physicist

• learnt to program computers (1974)• seemed easier than physics

Programmer

• building models of things on computers• sewage plant, epidemics, domestic energy use (1982)

Research at Apple and Hewlett Packard

• 2 or 3 years on Sustainability

Now work at Centre for Sustainable Energy in Bristol

• modelling government energy policies on computers• currently researching how Smart Meters can help save energy

ASSUMPTIONS

Human-made Global Warming is real

• Will disrupt many systems (Agriculture, Transport, Health)

• Will be cheaper to reduce GHG emissions than to adapt to warming on reasonable timescales

• We’ve already done some damage: “Past and future anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions will continue to contribute to warming and sea level rise for more than a millennium, due to the timescales required for removal of this gas from the atmosphere” IPCC Summary for Policymakers

ASSUMPTIONS

Peak Oil is happening

There is lots of Coal and Gas

Goal is to get to zero carbon by 2050

To run our societies off renewable energy is more elegant than burning fossil fuels or nuclear fission

THE PROBLEM

PERSPECTIVES

THE PROBLEM

CAN WE DO IT?

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CAN WE DO IT?

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CAN WE DO IT?

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WHAT WILL HAPPEN?

HE WHO TELLS YOU HE KNOWS THE FUTURE IS LYING, EVEN IF HE TURNS OUT TO BE RIGHT – THE KORAN

NREAP

National Renewable Energy Action Plan

• The Coalition’s Fairly Ambitious Renewables Target• 15% of UK Energy from Renewables by 2020• 30% Reduction in GHG Emissions

Assumes we electrify our energy mix

Prodigious amounts of Wind

• Over a third of the total

NREAP

One Fifth is Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation

• Not very clear where the fuel will come from

Expecting a lot from Heat Pumps

• I believe in the physics but…• Expensive – can they catalyse electrification of energy use?• We need hard data on these in the UK

EFFICIENCY IN HOUSING

New Build

• BREEAM• PassivHaus

Old Build

• Insulate, Insulate, Insulate• Hard to treat houses (e.g. most of Edale)• Solid wall insulation – internal and external

Draught Proofing

Boilers

Lighting

• Incandescent → Compact Flourescent → LED

EFFICIENCY IN INDUSTRY

The Big Three:

• Steel• Cement• Chemicals

SMART 2020 Report

• 15% cut across the board by 2020 through improved use of IT

Cradle-to-Cradle Design

• Beyond recycling

EFFICIENCY IN INDUSTRY

Number four emitter: Paper & Pulp Industry

Potential GHG Emissions Savings: 120 Million tonnes per year

EFFICIENCY IN TRANSPORT, FOODElectric Vehicles

• Grid Power is more efficient than internal combustion engine• Regenerative Braking

Air Travel

• Air Passenger Duty does not incentivise efficiency• Duty on Jet Fuel?

Food

• Waste is huge• Beef, Lamb are Energy Intensive• Pork and Cheese lower and about the same• Chicken can be about the same as tomatoes• GM Crops?

SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAICLearning Rate = 19% per doubling of production

Production is doubling every 2 years

Now probably under $1.50 per Watt

WIND

NREAP Goal is 117 TWh/year by 2020 ~4kWh per person per day (ppd)

Other studies point a way to 20kWh ppd

Learning Rate also 18% (similar to PV but production only doubles every 2.5 years to 2020)

BIOFUEL

Not Ethanol – neither non-cellulosic nor cellulosic

• Problematic even from sugar cane

Burning Our Waste

• Problems of location

Some Wood

• Can be good locally• Pellets from wood waste

MICROGENERATION IN YOUR OWN HOME

Solar Photovoltaic (PV)

• 4kWp (peak) now under £10,000 (~10 kWh per day)• expect further big price falls (I am waiting for £1 per Watt)• in future: integrate with Electric Vehicle e.g. 30 million cars at

50kWh = 1500GWh of electricity storage

Solar Thermal

PVT (Photovoltaic and Thermal)

FIT (Feed In Tariff)

RHI (Renewable Heat Incentive)

CHP?

Combined Heat and Power

OK in District Heating Schemes

• Not domestic CHP boilers

“Rejected heat from power stations could meet UK heating needs”

• Qualified yes from old power stations• Not from new. Better to use it to generate more electricity

Check out the National Heat Map!

THE NATIONAL HEAT MAP

http://ceo.decc.gov.uk/nationalheatmap/

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IT’S 2020. HOW ARE WE DOING?

WHAT COULD POSSIBLY GO WRONG?

THE JEVONS PARADOX

William Stanley Jevons: if the efficiency with which a resource is consumed increases, then consumption of that resource tends to increase

Could be a concern as we electrify our energy mix

Current UK wind energy now essential but has not reduced our FF burn

GAS GLUT

Natural Gas price has halved in the US from 2 years ago

• Back to dollar price of 2002• Global effect

Caused by over-production, partly from fracking

• Use this to counter fracking here in UK

Affects economics of investment in other energy sources

• particularly renewables

Could last to 2030 or beyond (estimates very vague)

COAL LEARNING RATE ??

Being used to justifyinvestment in CCS – Carbon Capture andSequestration

FOSSIL FUELS ARE STILL CHEAP

Real costs are hidden, you can’t see greenhouse gases

They are subsidised

• UK mostly through tax (8% VAT)• But also tax credits for much investment• Airline fuel almost tax-free

Renewables tend to have higher CAPEX but lower OPEX and environmental cost than fossil fuels

• Have to overcome the barrier to entry• Offshore wind subsidy is about 7 pence / kWh

We need a carbon price

THE INCUMBENTS ARE POWERFUL

They have had 150 years of close working with government

• entanglement is often complex (GazProm, EDF etc)

Mostly regulated industries

• Clumsy• Many barriers to innovation• Skewed market conditions• Obsolete infrastructure

Renewables have a mountain to climb

TALK THEIR LANGUAGE

THE ENERGY INCUMBENTS ARE POWERFUL

MACC, ERIC AND REF

This is a MACC:

MACC, ERIC AND REF

This is an ERIC:

I WENT TO PRISON

This is what an ERIC can do:

Santa Rita JailAlameda CountyCalifornia

ASK THE REF 1

Renewable Energy Finance

• Big financial companies are watching• CAPEX & OPEX go topsy-turvy• Justify CAPEX on basis of OPEX• Optimise Production and Investment Tax Credits for

renewables

Use Future Savings and Constant OPEX as a principle

• Keep bills constant, fund renewables from future savings• Green Deal: Imperfect prototype• Feed-In-Tariff (FIT) flip-flop has been disaster• Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI)

ASK THE REF 2

When politicians go flopsy-wopsy

• Demand stability• Parity with fossil fuel burners• Use equivalent financial arguments

For Example

• Question CAPEX, OPEX, ITCs and Carbon Credit of CCS where the CO2 is used to recover more oil

HOW TO MAKE IT GO RIGHTBehaviour

• Back to my tank: it made me change

Japan

• Post-Fukushima “Setsuden”• Consumption 20% off peak• Wind & PV could replace 60% of turned off nuclear by 2020• Shaking up their big power companies (even worse than ours)• FIT driving 148GWp of renewables by 2030 (about 15kWh ppd)

Develop Pro-Renewable Arguments

• Wading birds or Severn Barrage?• Are Wind Turbines ugly?

Talk their language MACC, ERIC, IRR, PTC, ITC

NUCLEAR?

THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM

WHY I’M AGAINST A NUCLEAR SOLUTION 1Government should aim primarily to get us to Consumption/Renewables balance

• Economic forces will keep the lights on (primarily using gas)

Nuclear Risk?

• Radiation: Fukushima spent fuel nearly caught fire• Cost: How much to make Fukushima reactors safe?

UK would need a new reactor fleet

• Need “breeder” reactors, cost unproven• £2 billion per year current fleet decommissioning

Government can fund research (e.g. Thorium reactors)

WHY I’M AGAINST A NUCLEAR SOLUTION 2

Nuclear Fusion

• ZETA →

• ITER - €1.4 billion per year EU project

THANK YOU!

AT LAST THE END

ENERGY FUTURES REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL? ROYSTON SELLMAN Thomas Fulljames’ watercolour of his own...

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Transcript of ENERGY FUTURES REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL? ROYSTON SELLMAN Thomas Fulljames’ watercolour of his own...