Energy & Environmental Economics (Basics I) 2015 … 2015 Introduzione.pdf · Energy &...
Transcript of Energy & Environmental Economics (Basics I) 2015 … 2015 Introduzione.pdf · Energy &...
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Energy & Environmental Economics (Basics I)
2015-2016
Introduction.Measurement. Energy Balances. The Italian and European energy systems through the energy
balance
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General information
• Title: Energy & Environmental Economics • Classes: 48 hr , energy and environment
approximately 50/50% • Examination MAFIB students: written, consisting of two/three
open-answer questions, including the comment of some data (chart, table etc.)
EGM students: a written essay, of 6.000/8.000 words, based on the contents of the course and on a set of assigned readings + a discussion of the essay (possibility to choose the MAFIB mode)
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Materials (I)
Energy:
Evans, J.-Hunt,L.C. (eds.)
International Handbook on the Economics of Energy Edward Elgar,Cheltenham 2009
Chapters: 1;3-4-5-6-7-8; 11; 16; 20; 22.
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Materials (II)
Environment Perman, R.-Common, M.-Maddison, D.-McGilvray, J Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Pearson, Harlow, 2011 Chapters 1,2,4 (paragraphs 4.8-4.9-4.10-4.11), 5 (except paragraphs
5.9 to 5.12), 6 , 9, 11 and 12. UN (1987) Our Common Future: Report of the World Commission on
Environment and Development Chapter 2: Towards Sustainable Development: pp. 36-52 http://conspect.nl/pdf/Our_Common_Future-
Brundtland_Report_1987.pdf
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Materials (III)
Slides of the course (to be published on the course e-learning page) represent an important part of the examination materials, at least on some subjects. Moreover, some “flavour” of real-world data can be appreciated by going though the slides.
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Some general remarks on method
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Method I: The other disciplines
Energy & environmental economics is mainly
ECONOMICS
NOT engineering, physics, chemistry environment & climate sciences, although we should learn from these
THEREFORE…
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Method II Course requirements: theory
Knowledge of (at least) the basics of economic reasoning is required to any student
(utility-profit maximization-costs-demand theory, externalities & public goods etc.)
Important: by “Economics” I mean what in Italian is specifically called “Economia Politica”
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Method III Course requirements: Empirics
Energy and environmental economics are mainly applied subjects. This does not mean:
- that ignoring economic theory is allowed (see previous slide)
while:
- statistical knowledge cannot be replaced by some loose conversation on tables and graphs
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If one ignores economic theory and statistics, one is just doing
journalism,
not energy/environmental economics
In the past few years I have noticed serious lacks of economic and statistical knowledge in the students attending this course. Take care!
Some (very few) review lectures are included in the program (the first one very soon)
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Method IV Economics and Medicine
Some economists like to present themselves as the “doctors” of the society, capable of healing its many diseases. This is a bad habit indeed !
However, it is true that economic investigation follows procedures that are similar to what doctors do when diagnosing (possibly treating) a disease
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Doing applied economic analysis . A comparison with medicine
Medicine • The patient comes up with a
problem (perceived symptoms)
• The physician examines the patient and orders additional exams. The choice of exams is guided by “theory”
• Evaluation of the available evidence and possible new round of exams
• Diagnosis, prognosis and therapy
Economics • The economic system exhibits
some interesting, unusual, relevant (not necessarily bad) phenomenon
• Economists examine the prima facie evidence and proceed to further enquiries, guided by a “model”
• Evaluation of the available evidence and possible new round of enquiries
• Explanation, forecast, and (possibly) policy recommendations.
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Oil Price
Diagnostic Example One
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The symptom source: www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/xls/PET_PRI_SPT_S1_D.xls
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
feb 01,
2013
apr 01,
2013
giu 01,
2013
ago 01,
2013
ott 01,
2013
dic 01,
2013
feb 01,
2014
apr 01,
2014
giu 01,
2014
ago 01,
2014
ott 01,
2014
dic 01,
2014
feb 01,
2015
apr 01,
2015
giu 01,
2015
ago 01,
2015
Brent spot price ($ per barrel)
Brent spot price ($ per barrel)
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First step: understanding the data
• What kind of data are these ?
- What is Brent ?
- What is a barrel?
- What is EIA ?
Source: www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/xls/PET_PRI_SPT_S1_D.xls http://www.eia.gov/
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An overview of the course
• Energy: definitions, measurement, estimation, forecasting
• The energy industries: oil, gas, coal, nuclear, renewables, electric power
• Energy policies and instruments • Environment and the economy. Sustainability • Measuring the environment • Evaluation of environmental goods • Environmental policies and instruments • International Environmental policies
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Natural resource Economics
Any human activity (including economic ones) entails a direct or indirect use of natural resources.
Natural resources can be distinguished according to two criteria:
- Energy vs Non-energy resources
- Public vs private natural resources
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Energy economics deals with exploitation, transformation exchange and consumption of nrg natural resources (public and private as well)
Examples: oil (an nrg private natural resource). photovoltaic nrg (a public nrg natural resource) Environmental economics deals with exploitation,
transformation exchange and consumption of public natural resources (nrg & non-nrg as well)
Examples: landscape (a non-nrg public natural resource). The stream of a river used to operate some hydroelectric
plants (an nrg public natural resource)
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Other natural resources
There obviously exist other private, non-nrg natural resources (example: diamonds) which fall outside the scope of E&E economics.
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1. Energy: Definitions and Measurement Units
2. Sources, Vectors, Users
3. The national nrg balance
4. A broad view of the Italian and European nrg systems
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What is Energy?
• “It is important to understand that we have no exact idea of what energy is”
(P. Feynman).
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What is energy ?(II) A strong background in physics or chemistry of nrg is not required to study the economic aspects of it (at least in the beginning) although some elementary notion can be useful. In general, nrg is the capability to do work (in the physicists sense) Work is measured in Joules (and equivalents) Joule: the variation in kinetic energy required to move a mass of 1 kg by 1 metre with an acceleration of 1 metre/second per second.
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What is energy (III)
Correspondence between kinetic nrg and thermal nrg and between work and heat Calorie: nrg required increase the temperature of 1 gram of distilled water from 14°.5 to 15°.5 C 1 calorie = 4,184 Joule (Joule experiment: http://demonstrations.wolfram.com/JoulesExperiment/) Correspondence between work and electric nrg: 3600 joules= 1 watt/hour
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Commonly used measurement units for Energy
• British Thermal Unit (Btu): thermal energy required to increase the temperature of 1 pound of water from 59,5° to 60,5° F (=1055,56 Joule)
• Tons of Oil Equivalent (TOE-Tep) heat produced by burning 1 metric ton of (standard) oil (=10.000 Kcal)
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Primary Energy Sources
Non-renewables (Exhaustibles) Renewables
Fossil fuels -Oil (crude) -Natural Gas -Coal -Nuclear Fuels (uranium, deuterium)
-Hydro (& Tidal) - Wind -Solar -Biomass -Geothermal
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Energy vectors or secondary sources
Energy must be given a form which is suitable to specific uses. Then primary sources are often transformed into secondary sources before use (with some loss of energy in the process)
• Steam
• Biofuels
• Hydrogen
• Electric power
• Products from oil and coal (gasoline, LPG, coke…)
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The National Energy Balance(NEB)
• An accounting framework which organizes and summarizes the information about the energy system in a consistent and orderly way.
• It is to nrg economics what national accounts are to macroeconomics
• It is formulated both in physical measurement units, (which differ according to the source) and in nrg units (toe or teracalories)
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Energy Balance
Primary source
Production+Imports+Initial Inventories=
Exports+End Inventories+ Gross Internal Consumption
Gross Internal Consumption =Primary Industry Consumption+Transf. to the secondary Industry+Final Consumption (nrg & non-nrg)+Bunkers
Secondary Source
Imports=
Exports + Gross Internal Consumption
+ Gross Internal Consumption +Transf. From Primary Industry = Secondary Industry Consumption+Final Consumption
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NEB: the fundamental stucture
Sources Uses
Imports
Inventories (beginning)
Production
Exports
Inventories (end of period)
Balance: Gross Internal
Consumption
Structure of Gross Internal Consumption
Sources Uses
Gross Internal Consumption
Consumption and Losses of
Energy Industry
Final Uses of energy
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NEB: Primary sources
Structure of Gross Internal Consumption (primary sources)
Sources Uses
Gross Internal Consumption
Consumption and Losses of The
primary Energy Industry
Transfers to secondary energy
industries
Final Uses of the primary source
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NEB : secondary source
Structure of Gross Internal Consumption (secondary sources)
Resources Uses
Gross Internal Consumption
Transfers from primary energy
industries
Consumption and Losses of The
secondary Energy Industry
Final Uses of the secondary
source
Definition of GIC for a secondary source
Reources Uses
Imports
Inventories (beginning)
Production
Exports
Inventories (end of period)
Balance: Gross Internal
Consumption
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NEB: final uses
Structure of final uses
Final Uses
Energy Uses
Non-energy uses
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Italy’s NEB 2012 Millions of tons of Oil equivalent
Resources
and
Uses Coal Gas OilRenewa
bles
Electric
PowerTotal
1. Production 0,633 7,047 5,397 24,802 37,880
2. Imports 15,947 55,467 86,278 2,088 9,981 169,761
3. Exports 0,230 0,114 29,173 0,053 0,502 30,072
4. D Inventories -0,214 1,045 -1,087 0,019 0,000 -0,237
5.Gross Internal consumption
(1+2-3-4) 16,563 61,355 63,590 26,818 9,479 177,805
6. Consumption and Losses
of the energy industry -0,328 -1,618 -5,015 -0,008 -41,618 -48,586
7. Transfers to
Electric industry -11,788 -20,565 -3,300 -21,715 57,368
8. Total final uses
(5+6+7) 4,447 39,173 55,274 5,095 25,229 129,218
- industry 4,356 12,285 4,263 0,270 9,810 30,983
- transport - 0,753 36,181 1,273 0,925 39,132
- residential 0,004 25,545 3,675 3,402 13,996 46,621
- agriculture 0,123 2,167 0,151 0,499 2,940
-non-energy uses 0,088 0,467 5,864 - 6,419
- bunkers - - 3,124 - 3,124
year 2012
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Italy’s Energy System 1995-2009
Source: Adjusted Italy’s Energy Balances (Courtesy of Enzo Di Giulio)
Italy’s Energy balances are available at http://dgerm.sviluppoeconomico.gov.it/dgerm/ben.as
p
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Grwoth rates of final uses
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Tassi di crescita degli impieghi finali 1995-2009
Tassi di crescita degli impieghi finali 1995-2009
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The structure of final uses (I)
Solidi 4%
Gas 28%
Petrolio 51%
Totale impieghi
finali Rinnovabili
1%
Energia Elettrica
16%
Final uses by source 1995 Solidi
2%
Gas 29%
Petrolio 47%
Totale impieghi
finali Rinnovabili
3%
Energia Elettrica
19%
Final uses by source 2009
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The structure of final uses(II)
Industry 32%
Residential 33%
Transportation
33%
Agriculture &Fisheries
2%
Final uses by sector 1995
Industry 24%
Residential 38%
Transportation
35%
Agriculture &Fisheries
3% Final uses by sector 2009
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Electric power generation in Italy by source
Coal 20%
Gas 48%
Oil 12%
Renewables 20%
2009
Coal 13%
Gas 19%
Oil 50%
Renewables 18%
1995
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Final uses by source: Industry
0
0,05
0,1
0,15
0,2
0,25
0,3
0,35
0,4
0,45
Solidi Gas Petrolio Rinnovabili Energia Elettrica
Industria 1995
Industria 2009
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Final uses by source : Tranportation
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
Solidi Gas Petrolio Rinnovabili Energia Elettrica
Trasporti 1995
trasporti 2009
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Final Uses by source: Residential
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
Solidi Gas Petrolio Rinnovabili Energia Elettrica
Terziario e residenziale 1995
Terziario e residenziale 2009
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Final Uses by source : agriculture
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
Solidi Gas Petrolio Rinnovabili Energia Elettrica
Agricoltura 1995
agricoltura 2009
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International Comparisons
Source: EU – Statistical Pocketbook 2010
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Import dependence
0,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
100,0
120,0
UK PL RO NL BG SI HR HU LT SK TR ES IT CY MT
Tito
lo a
sse
Net imports/(Bunkers+GIC)
Net imports/(Bunkers+GIC)
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Gross Internal Consumption by source
Solid fuels 18%
Oil 37%
Natural gas 24%
Nuclear 13%
Renewables 8%
Other* 0%
Gross Internal Consumption by source 2007 EU-25
Solid fuels 9%
Oil 44%
Natural gas 38%
Nuclear 0%
Renewables 7%
Other* 2%
Gross Internal Consumption by source2007 Italy
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Final uses by source
Solid fuels 5%
Oil 42%
Gas 23%
Electricity 21%
Derived heat &
Industrial waste
4%
Renewables *
5%
EU 27 Final uses by source2007 Solid fuels
3%
Oil 43%
Gas 30%
Electricity 20%
Derived heat &
Industrial waste
2%
Renewables *
2%
Italy Final uses by source2007
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Power generation by source(TWh)
- Coal 29%
- Oil 3%
- Gas 23% - Other
Power Stations
0%
Nuclear 28%
Pumped Storage
1% Renewables *
16%
Power generation by source2007 EU 25
- Coal 14%
- Oil 11%
- Gas 57%
- Other Power
Stations 0%
Nuclear 0%
Pumped Storage
2% Renewables * 16%
Power generation by source2007 Italy
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Energy Intensity
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
CH IE DK UK NO AT IT DE SE LU FR NL EL ES PT MT BE CY FI TR SI HR LV PL HU LT SK CZ EE RO BG
Energy intensity 2007