Energy Elasticity Funda

8/4/2019 Energy Elasticity Funda

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Importance of UCG in

Indias Energy Strategy

byDr. Kirit Parikh,

Member, Planning CommissionKabini River Lodge, Karapura

Wednesday, the June 18th, 2008


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The Challenges

India needs 8% to 10% economic growth to meet

its economic and human development goal

Ensuring access of clean, convenient and reliableenergy for all

Sustained growth of 8% through 2031 needs to grow Primary Energy supply by 3 to 4

times

to Grow Electricity Supply by 5 to 7 times to improve Quality and quantity of supply

Coal shall remain the main leading energy source

till 2031-32 & beyond


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The Energy Scene

Per capita consumption is low

Cross-country comparisons of energy use andefficiency are full of pitfalls

Consumption Per Person of Primary Energy in 2003

Region/Country TPES Per E lectricity

Capita (kgoe) Consumption

Per Capita (kWh)

India 439 550China 1090 1380

US 7835 13070

World 1688 2430


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Use of Traditional Fuels

Causes indoor pollution

NSS 1999-2000 reveals

86% of rural households use firewood anddungcakes

20% of urban households use firewood and chips LPG

5% - Rural households

44% - Urban households

Kerosene

2.7% - Rural households 22% - Urban households


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Burden of Traditional Fuels in

Rural India 85 million households spent 30 billion hours

in fuel wood gathering Respiratory symptoms

24 million adults (17 million have serious symptoms)

5% Bronchial asthma

16% Bronchitis

8.2% Pulmonary TB

7% Chest infection

Eye diseases also increases

Economic burden of traditional fuels is aroundRs.300 billion


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Energy Requirements

Long-term projections based on Assumptions vis--vis the growth of the

economy

Population growth

Progress of energy conservation

Increase in energy efficiency and Availability of different fuels


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Energy Use Elasticity w.r.t. GDP

(Percentage change in commercial energy use for onepercent change in GDP)

Regression Using Indias Time SeriesPer

Capita

Total Primary CommercialEnergy Supply (TPCES)

w.r.t. GDP (Rs. Crores 1993-94)

1980-81 - 2003-04 1.08

1990-91 - 2003-04 0.82

Electricity Generated w.r.t.

GDP (Utilities + Captive)

1980-81 - 2003-04 1.30

1990-91 - 2003-04 1.06


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Energy Use Elasticity w.r.t. GDP from

Cross-Country Data of 2003

TPES (kgoe/capita) w.r.t.per capita GDP ($ PPP

2000)

All Countries 0.83

2000


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Some Energy Supply Scenario for 8% GDP

Growth

Scenario

1. Coal-Based Development

2. Maximise Nuclear3. Forced Hydro

4. Maximise Hydro & Nuclear

5. 4 plus forced Natural Gas

6. 5 plus Demand Side Management

7. 5 plus Higher Coal Power Plant Efficiency

8. 6 plus Coal Power Plant Efficiency

9. 8 plus higher freight share of Railways

10. 9 plus vehicle efficiency increased11. 10 plus renewables


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Range of Commercial Energy Requirement, Domestic

Production and Imports for 8 Percent Growth for

Year 2031-32Fuel Range of

Requirement

in Scenarios

Assumed

Domestic

Production

Range of

Imports*Import

(Percent)

(R) (P) (I) (I/R)

Oil (Mt) 350-486 35 315-451 90-93

Natural Gas- Mtoe

including CBM

100-197 100 0-97 0-49

Coal (Mtoe) 632-1022 560 72-462 11-45

TCPES 1351-1702 - 387-1010 29-59

* Range of imports is calculated as follows:

Lower bound = Minimum requirement Maximum domestic production

Upper bound = Maximum requirement Minimum domestic production


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Indias Hydro Carbon Reserves

Resources Proved Reserve/Production

No of Years

Extractable Coal 86

Extractable Lignite 136

Oil (2005) 23

Gas (2005) 38


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The Approximate Potential Available

from Nuclear EnergyParticulars Amount Electricity

MWe

Uranium-Metal 61,000-t

In PHWR 10,000

In FBR 5,00,000

Thorium-Metal 2,25,000-t

In Breeders Very Large

Source: Department of Atomic Energy


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Possible Development of Nuclear

Power Installed Capacity in MWYear Unit Scenario

Optimistic* Pessimistic2010 GWe 11 9

2020 GWe 29 21

2030 GWe 63 48

2040 GWe 131 104

2050 GWe 275 208* It is assumed that India will be able to import 8000 MW of Light

Water Reactors with fuel over the next ten years.

Source: Department of Atomic Energy


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Renewable Energy Resources

Resources Unit Present Potential

Hydro-power MW 32,326 1,50,000

Wood Mtoe/year 140 620

Biogas Mtoe/year0.6 4

0.1 15

Bio-diesel Mtoe/year - 20

Ethanol Mtoe/Year


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Strategic Imperatives

Energy Efficiency and DSM

Augmenting Resources

Energy Security including Households

Environmental Sustainability

A Carbon Free Scenario

Energy Independence


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Energy Efficiency and

Demand Side Management

Promote urban mass transport

Increase share of railways in freight

movement Benchmarking energy consumption for all

energy intensive sectors

Annual audits for specified energy intensiveindustries

Distributed Gener & CHP systems


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Augmenting Resources

Accelerated exploration for coal, oil & gas Accelerating Nuclear

Developing the thorium cycle for nuclear power

Exploiting non-conventional energy sources

Solar energy

In-situ coal gasification Enhanced recovery of oil & gas


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Energy Security Including

for Households Diversification

Buffer Stock

Clean fuels/Electricity for all/DG systems

Poor Need to be Subsidised

Give entitlements for each family through Smart

Card 30 kWhr/Month

10 Kg LPG/Month or 10 Lts. Kerosene/Month


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Environmental Sustainability

From global point of view - Carbon emissions are

main concern From local point of view Degradation of natural

resources are important

Our CO2 emissions would rise by 2031-32 5.3 billion tonnes per year in the high coal use

projection

3.8 billion tonnes per year in the low coal andrenewable projection

US CO2

emissions today are in excess of 5.5billion tonnes


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Importance of UCG

Can substitute transport fuels

Can be converted to liquid fuels

Augments our Energy Reserves

Cleaner technology

Carbon capture


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Electricity Nuclear

Hydel Solar

Oil Substitutes

Electric Traction Electric Vehicles

Cellulosic Ethanol

Biodiesel

Technically feasible

Costs high

Needs Technological breakthrough

A Carbon Free Energy Scenario

Energy Independence


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Energy IndependenceRealizing Former President Kalams

Vision To augment total domestic energy supply

To replace natural gas By Industrial Use of Naphtha, Fuel Oil(FO) and

High Speed Diesel Oil (HSDO)

By domestic use of LPG and Kerosene Gas to be used for power generation after

above demands are met

To decentralize production of bio-diesel To encourage blending of ethanol with petrol

To reduce the need for diesel used for standbygenerators and diesel pumps by providingadequate quality power


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Energy Independence. (contd.)

To expand electrification of railways

To improve railways freight service

To promote urban mass transport To improve fuel efficiency of motorised

vehicle

To encourage hybrid vehicles To eliminate oil dependence over the next

40-50 years by Developing cheap batteries with high storagedensity

Developing solar power Developing nuclear power based on Thorium


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