Energy Efficiency: Tightening Our Energy Belts · 2014. 8. 20. · concentrations below 550 ppm •...
Transcript of Energy Efficiency: Tightening Our Energy Belts · 2014. 8. 20. · concentrations below 550 ppm •...
Energy Efficiency:Tightening Our Energy Belts
Realizing the potential of energy efficiency
The UN estimates that doubling the rate of energy efficiency improvements in G8 countries would:
•
Allow the world to hold CO2
concentrations below 550 ppm•
Avoid US$3 trillion worth of new generation•
Save consumers US$500 billion per year by 2030•
Eliminate the same amount of energy supplied by 2,000 coal power
plants•
Return the globe to 2004 energy consumption levels•
Drive business productivity improvements and new employment opportunities
Source: UN Foundation.
Elements of energy efficiency policies in G8 countries (2006)
Policy Canada France Germany Italy Japan Russia UK USA
Appliances Labels and Standards
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Building Standards No Yes Yes Modest Yes Yes Yes Modest
Fiscal Incentives Few Some Yes Few Yes Few Yes Some
Voluntary Agreements Yes Yes Yes Yes No No Yes Yes
Auto/Fuel Policies No Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes No
Source: UN Foundation.
Are energy efficiency programs effective?Per capita electricity use (kWh/person)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,00019
6019
6219
6419
6619
6819
7019
7219
7419
7619
7819
8019
8219
8419
8619
8819
9019
9219
9419
9619
9820
0020
0220
0420
0620
08
United States
California
Introduction of first set of efficiency standards
Source: EIA/DOE.
How much energy can be saved?
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Annual Energy Savings from Efficiency Programs and Standards in California (GWh/year)
Source: California Energy Commission
Utility Efficiency Programs at a cost ~1% of electric bill
Building Standards
Appliance Standards
Achievable potential from energy efficiency and demand-response programs in the US
Source: EPRI.
The impact of standards on the energy efficiency of appliances is staggering
Index (1972 = 100)
2030405060708090
100110
1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Refrigerators Central A/C
Gas Furnaces
= Effective Dates of National Standards = Effective Dates of State Standards
Source: ACEEE/American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy.
What’s the order of magnitude of energy efficiency standards?
Annual Energy Saved vs. Several Sources of Electricity Supply (USA, GWh)
Energy saved byrefrigerator stds.
=80 power plantsof 500 MW each
Renewables100 Million 1 KW
PV systems
Conventional hydro
Nuclear energy
0100200300400500600700800
Source: California Energy Commission
The issue of “Vampire Load”
•Standby power
(aka
vampire or phantom load) is the electric power consumed by electronic appliances while they are switched off or in standby mode.
•The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory of Science estimated in 2006 that using the most efficient available designs could reduce average household standby power consumption by 72%.
•Applying this reduction across developed OECD countries would reduce CO2
emissions by 0.5%, which is equivalent to taking 18 million cars off the road.
Source: The Economist
Martha Amram, CEOHomeZ
Inc.
Source: HomeZ
Inc: Sample of San Francisco Bay Area Homes; audited in 2008.
Energy Use by Home:
Size Does Not Matter
$ 0
$ 1 0 0
$ 2 0 0
$ 3 0 0
$ 4 0 0
$ 5 0 0
$ 6 0 0
$ 7 0 0
$ 8 0 0
$ 9 0 0
0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 5 0 0 0
Home Size (Sq. Ft.)
MonthlyEnergyBill
$ 0
$ 1 0 0
$ 2 0 0
$ 3 0 0
$ 4 0 0
$ 5 0 0
$ 6 0 0
$ 7 0 0
$ 8 0 0
$ 9 0 0
0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 5 0 0 0
Home Size (Sq. Ft.)
MonthlyEnergyBill
$ 0
$ 1 0 0
$ 2 0 0
$ 3 0 0
$ 4 0 0
$ 5 0 0
$ 6 0 0
$ 7 0 0
$ 8 0 0
$ 9 0 0
0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 5 0 0 0
Home Size (Sq. Ft.)
MonthlyEnergyBill
“Eat food. Not too much. Mostly plants.”
Here’s the Norm for Eating.
What is the Norm for Energy Use?
In-Home Energy Monitors: A Technology that Delivers Behavioral Change
Source: Greenbox
Inc. www.getgreenbox.com
Source: New York Times, Feb, 2008: http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2008/02/10/opinion/10op.graphic.ready.html
Years to 70% household penetrationStartYear
101992 Internet
1993 Cellphone
1980 Home Computer
1960 Microwave
1950 Dishwasher
1950 Clothes Dryer
1980 Air Conditioner
1925 Clothes Washer
1925 Fridge
1920 Radio
815
20NotYet
4550
2310
45
Years to 70% household penetrationStartYear
101992 Internet
1993 Cellphone
1980 Home Computer
1960 Microwave
1950 Dishwasher
1950 Clothes Dryer
1980 Air Conditioner
1925 Clothes Washer
1925 Fridge
1920 Radio
815
20NotYet
4550
2310
45
Why Will This Technology Adoption Cycle Be Different?
Daily electricity use (kWh)
Price of Electricity
(cents per kWh)
42¢
12¢
35¢
25¢13¢
PG&E –
Northern California
Daily electricity use (kWh)
Price of Electricity
(cents per kWh)
4¢ 8¢
Seattle City Light
TOO COMPLEX TOO CHEAP
Daily electricity use (kWh)
Price of Electricity
(cents per kWh)
7¢ 8¢
DTE (Detroit)
TOO FLAT
Daily electricity use (kWh)
Price of Electricity
(cents per kWh)8¢
5¢
Cedar Falls, IA
DECLINING WITH USE
Weak Electricity Price Signals
Rising EnergyPrices
AgingHomes
Carbon Regs
StressedFamilyBudgets
Energy Efficiency: The Best Action in a Perfect Storm
David Arfin, VP, Customer FinanceSolarCity
Mass Adoption of Energy Efficiency: Lessons from SolarLease
Context: Confusing Maze of IncentivesFEDERAL•Tax Credit/Grants•Accelerated depreciation•Stimulus Dollars
STATE•Tax Credit/Rebates•Income level-based subsidies•Property tax exemptions
UTILITY•Rebates•Tiered Pricing•Time of Use Tariffs
OTHER•Measuring and Monitoring•Manufacturer rebate)•Loans (HELOC, Credit Cards, refinancing)•City or neighborhood incentives
FEDERAL•Tax Credit/Grants•Accelerated depreciation•Stimulus Dollars
STATE•Tax Credit/Rebates•Income level-based subsidies•Property tax exemptions
UTILITY•Rebates•Tiered Pricing•Time of Use Tariffs
OTHER•Measuring and Monitoring•Manufacturer rebate)•Loans (HELOC, Credit Cards, refinancing)•City or neighborhood incentives
Sample Proposal with SolarLease [5.1kW]
Note: Utility prices projected to increase by 6.5% per year
BENEFITS OVER 15 YEARS
Estimated Savings Over 15 years $25,281Net Present Value $12,134Payback Immediate
After-Tax ROI Infinite
MONTHLY SAVINGSBefore Solar SolarLease
Utility Bill $250 $76SolarLease Payment $130Total Monthly Cost $250 $206Net Monthly Savings $44
BENEFITS OVER 15 YEARS
Estimated Savings Over 15 years $25,281Net Present Value $12,134Payback Immediate
After-Tax ROI Infinite
BENEFITS OVER 15 YEARS
Estimated Savings Over 15 years $25,281Net Present Value $12,134Payback Immediate
After-Tax ROI Infinite
MONTHLY SAVINGSBefore Solar SolarLease
Utility Bill $250 $76SolarLease Payment $130Total Monthly Cost $250 $206Net Monthly Savings $44
MONTHLY SAVINGSBefore Solar SolarLease
Utility Bill $250 $76SolarLease Payment $130Total Monthly Cost $250 $206Net Monthly Savings $44
Consumer Adoption and Solar/Energy Efficiency
•MotivatorsEconomic EnvironmentalEnergy SecurityMistrust Utility/Energy Sources
•
ObstaclesTechnological ObsolescenceComplex regulatory environment (permits, incentives)AestheticsQuality Reputation of installer, warranteesFinancial Investment – an up front payment for future benefitsPrice declinesFear of making a bad decisions
Critical Success Factors for
Broad Adoption
•
Full product experience with trusted brand•
Evolve business model from selling equipment to energy services
•
Guarantees Performance •
Educate thru web and PR•
Reinforce thru Community building
•
Change the equation from “investment”
to: “If I could save money and help the environment, why wouldn’t I do this?”
Impact of Innovative Financing on Solar Adoption
Source: California Solar Initiative Program Database
California Residential Reservations Since Introduction of SolarCity’s Lease Option
James Davis, PresidentChevron Energy Solutions
World demand for energy is growing…
Source: Energy Information Administration 2005
All Sources of Energy Will Be Needed
0
400
800
1980 2004 2030QU
AD
RIL
LIO
N B
TU P
ER
YE
AR WIND / SOLAR / GEOTHERMAL / HYDRO
NUCLEARBIOMASS
Coal
Gas
Liquids
Source: IEA REFERENCE CASE
Chevron Energy Solutions =
Negawatts + Clean Megawatts(energy savings) (energy production)
K-12 SchoolsColleges
and UniversitiesLocal, State,
FederalGovernment
Wastewater Treatment Plants
Chevron Energy Solutions’
Customers
Bill Phillips, Director, MerchandisingTHD At Home Services, Inc. –
The Home Depot
Early Concept:
Advertise price points with strong value and homeowners will respond
Energy Marketing Initiative –
Spring 2008
Energy Marketing Initiative –
October 2008Home Audit Brochure
SP Energy Checklist Store Events
Activating the Customer with Energy Solutions
• 1,200 Main Events – one per district per week
• Store Event collateral included in sign package
• Step-by-step guide to identify energy-saving ideas for the home
• Direct customers back to store for product and services
• Visual Survey to identify additional opportunities for homeowners to save money and energy
Home Audit Brochure
SP Energy Checklist Store Events
Activating the Customer with Energy Solutions
• 1,200 Main Events – one per district per week
• Store Event collateral included in sign package
• Step-by-step guide to identify energy-saving ideas for the home
• Direct customers back to store for product and services
• Visual Survey to identify additional opportunities for homeowners to save money and energy
Energy Inefficiency
Hard to Measure What You Can’t SeeHard to Measure What You Can’t See
Energy Tax Credit -
The Opportunity
Increased benefit30% of Material cost (vs. 10%)$1500 Total Credit (vs. $500)
Big win on Windows$1500 vs. $200
More stringent standardsHigher performanceFewer qualifying products
Strong Homeowner message
Pay as You Go –
Coin Operated Appliances
WasherDryerHVACRefrigeratorStoveOvenTVComputer
Mark Pougnet, CFOTendril Networks, Inc.
Initial in‐home hardware $150 ‐
$300 (over 2 years)Software Services $1 ‐
$2 (per month)
How will the costs be divided?
•
Stickiness•
Shed Peak Load•
Avoid Generation•
EE Mandates
•
Cost (Saving $) (5‐20% reduction to $800 annual average bill)
•
Carbon (Being Green)•
Competition (Neighbors, etc.)
UTILITYDRIVERS
CONSUMERDRIVERS
How will the costs be divided?
Speakers:Martha Amram, CEO, HomeZ
Inc; Senior Fellow, Milken InstituteDavid Arfin, Vice President, Customer Finance, SolarCityJames Davis, President, Chevron Energy SolutionsBill Phillips, Director, Merchandising, THD At Home Services, Inc., Home DepotMark Pougnet, Chief Financial Officer, Tendril Networks Inc.
Moderator:Nancy Pfund, Managing Partner, DBL Investors