Energy-Efficiency Technologies in Northeast Asia and the Global Energy Demand SRES Scenarios
description
Transcript of Energy-Efficiency Technologies in Northeast Asia and the Global Energy Demand SRES Scenarios
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Energy-Efficiency Technologies in Northeast Asia and the Global Energy Demand SRES
Scenarios
Nan ZhouEnvironmental Energy Technologies Division
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
14 May 2005
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Presentation Contents
• Energy-Efficiency Programs and Technologies in Northeast Asia
• The Impact of Energy Efficient Technologies in Building Sector
• The Implementation of Energy Efficiency Programs in China
• The Disaggregation of the SRES Scenarios : China Buildings Sector Example
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Comprehensive Energy-Efficiency Policies and Regulations by Country
China 中国 National Energy Conservation Prospect 2001-2005
Japan 日本Energy Conservation Law, Guideline for Measures to Prevent Global Warming: 2002-2010
Korea 韩国 Second Energy Rationalisation Energy Plan 1999-2003 (10% saving in 2003)
Chinese Taipei 台湾
Energy efficiency and conservation programme:28% reduction in the energy intensity of the GDP by 2020 (16% in 2010)
Russia 俄罗斯Energy efficient economy 2002-2005, target of 100Mtoe; federal law "On energy efficiency" of 1996
IEA energy efficiency\energy efficiency update\jp.pdf
Energy Efficiency: A worldwide Review Indicators, policies, Evaluation, WEC, 2004
综合性能源效率政策
Comprehensive Energy-Efficiency PolicyCountry/Region
国家/地区
•Comprehensive Energy Efficiency policies exists in each country•5 major countries or region were addressed here.
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Sectoral Types of Energy-Efficiency Technologies
1. Envelope 2. HVAC 3. Home appliances 4. Office equipment
1. Hybrid Electric Drivetrains 2. Low-Weight Structural Materials 3. Direct Injection Gasoline and Diesel Engines 4. Fuel Cells 5. Aircraft Technology
1. CHP 2. District heating 3. Renewables 4. Nuclear 5. Fuel Cells 6. Gas Turbine 7. Gas Engine 8. Gas Combined Cycle
1. Motors/ Motor Systems 2. Boilers 3.Transformers 4. Process equipment (furnaces, kilns, casters) 5.Industrial heating systems
发电 工业建筑 交通IndustryTransportationBuildings
Electricity and Heat Supply
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Technology Targeted by Buildings Programs
Country/Region
China Building codes for four different climate zones,stricter codes have been implemented in a few regions.
Minimum Standards
MS VL MS VL MS VL MS cl MS VL O VL O cl
Japan Building Codes Building Codes and standard
VS VL VS VL VS VL VS VL VS VL VS VL
Korea Building Codes Standards & Labeling Program
MS ML MS ML MS ML VL
MS ML MS VL VL MS VL
Chinese Taipei
Mandatory Building Codes for both Residential and commercial buildings
Building Codes
MS VL MS VL MS VL O VL O VL MS VL O VL
Russia Codes for residential buildings and public buildings but not commercial buildings
Building codes
MS O MS O O O cs O MS O MS O MS O
source: 1. Energy Efficiency: A worldwide Review Indicators, policies, Evaluation, WEC, 20042. APEC Energy Stamdard and Labeling Information Network : http://www.apec-esis.org/economy.asp?id=163: World Energy Council Survey on Energy Efficiency Policy Measures4. korea energy management corporation:http://www.kemco.or.kr/english/sub03_energyefficiency.asp?defmenu=35. IEA Energy Efficiency Update
Envelope HVAC
Home appliances
MS = Mandatory Standard VS = Voluntary Standard ML = Mandatory Labelling VL = Voluntary Labellingcs = considering standard cl = considering labelling O = no standard or labelling, none under consideration
LightingEquipment
ClothesWashers
and Dryers
CookingEquipment
WaterHeaters
Air Condistione
rs
Refrigerator
Office equipment
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Industry Energy-Efficiency Policies and Regulations by Country
China 中国 1. VA (2 steel companies) 2. Equipment and system efficiency standards for boilers, transformers, furnaces, heat transport systems, heaters, cooling supply systems, fans and networkpumps, etc.. 3. Enery auditing 4. ESCOs
Korea 韩国 1. VA 2. Energy Audits for industrial buildings and equipment 3. ESCOs
Chinese Taipei 台湾 1. VA 2. Fiscal incentives 3. Product Efficiency Standards 4. Energy Audits :Mandatory and free for the consumers (100% subsidies)
Japan 日本 1. Keidanren Voluntary Action Plan on the Environment (VA) 2. Energy Audits 3. Energy Conservation Assistance Law 4. ESCOs
Russia 俄罗斯 Energy Auditssource: 1. Energy Efficiency: A worldwide Review Indicators, policies, Evaluation, WEC, 20042. Energy Efficiency Indicators A Study of Energy Efficiency Indicators in APEC Economies, APERC,2001
Country/region Industry国家/地区
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
The Impact of Energy Efficient Technologies in Building Sector
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Advanced Insulation Technologies and Window Technologies
Envelope Insulation Advanced Window Technologies
Technologies Improve insulation in roof, walls, and floor with low U values
New types of windows based on advanced materials
Technologies description Thermal insulation, e.g., mineral wool
• New windows using advanced materials with low thermal conductivity • New windows with built-in solar cells
Status In progress, new materials under development with lower thermal conductivity
continuous improvements
Zero-energy house—new housesRetrofit existing houses
Close to zero net loss through windows
Benefits and CostsCost Moderate Perhaps HighEfficiency Yes YesReleability High AcceptableEnergy Quality Acceptable HighEnvironmental Impact Low LowEconomic Impact Acceptable ModerateCustomer Preference Depending on the cost and
payback timeDepends on cost
RD$D:Goals and Chanllenges
Sorce: Energy End-Use Technologies for the 21st Centry, WEC,2004
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
The Impact of Energy Efficiency Appliances
China: Cumulative saving from efficient refrigerators by 2001 reached 1.17 billion kWh or RMB 670 million at an electricity price of RMB 0.57 per kWh.
Japan: The energy efficiency standards adopted in the framework of the 1993 Energy Conservation Law calls for the improvement in energy efficiency of:
• 5-6% for single-purpose air-conditioners and combined air-conditioners and cooling units over the FY 1992 results by the end of September 1998.
• 3-7% for fluorescent lamps by 2000 compared to that of FY 1992.• 5-25% for televisions by FY 1998 compared to that of FY 1991.• 3% for copying machines by FY 2000 compared to that of FY 1992.
• 30% for electronic computers by FY 2000 compared to that in FY 1992.
• for magnetic disk units : 60% for single disk units and 80% for multi-disk drives by FY 2000 compared to that of FY 1992.
Russia: By retrofitting general-purpose industrial equipment such as motors, boilers and industrial heating systems with more energy-efficient technologies. Project investment are usually paid back in less than 3 years, and it is estimated that 8.7 Mtoe will be saved annually in 2002-2005, equivalent to 5.8 % of final total energy consumption in 2000.
Chinese Taipei: • Implementation of efficiency standards for electrical appliances has resulted in an average annual peak
load power saving of 130 MW.• The voluntary efficiency labels certify that products are 10 % to 30 % more efficient than required by the
MEPS.• The energy factor of an advanced energy-efficient refrigerator was 23 % higher than that of a baseline
model. It can improve refrigerator efficiency by another 30 to 40 %.
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Japan: stricter application of building standards for heat insulation was enforced in April 2001. The new standards could save 20% of energy use for air conditioning and are expected to cost around 1 million Yen(approximately $9,000) per house.
Russia: Energy consumption in these buildings is targeted to decline by 14 to 16 % by 2005 compared to 2000, with total energy savings of 3.2 Mtoe in 2002-2005 and 5.8 Mtoe in 2006-2010. The corresponding cut in government energy bills should amount to 500 million roubles (US$17 million) in 2002-2005 and 3.1 billion roubles (US$100 million) in 2006-2010.
The Impact of Energy Efficiency standards in Building Sector —Building Codes
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Feasibility Study of The Impact of Energy Efficient Technologies in Commercial Building
Energy-Efficient Alternatives Considered for a Proposed Demonstration Building
For more information on this phase of the project, please refer to the web site for Accord 21 (American Chinese Coalition Organized for Responsible Development) , the umbrella organization led by NRDC to implement this effort (http://www.nrdc.org/china/ebinx.html).
ID Conditions simulated Explanation
1 Base Case2 Wall/ Roof color Wall and roof absorptivity changed from 0.7 (grey) to 0.3 (off-white)
3 Recessed Windows Window setback of 0.3 m into the wall.4 Window Overhangs 0.60 m Overhang added to all windows.5 Daylighting (Bi-level
Switches)Simple two-step daylighting controls with a lighting setpoint of 200 Lux to simulate use of bi-level lighting switches.
6 Daylighting (Automatic) Continuously dimming daylighting controls with a lighting setpoint of 200 Lux.
7 High Efficiency Lighting Lighting intensity reduced from 14 to 8.3 W/ m2.8 Low-E Windows Windows are changed to Low-E glass with U-value = 0.29 W/ m2K ,
SHGC = 0.28, and TVIS=0.41.9 Reduce Window Height Window height is reduced from Base Case 2.1m to 1.65m10 Staged chillers Plant uses 2 small chillers that can be staged depending on cooling load,
instead of a single central chiller.11 Increased Chiller COP Chiller COP increased by 10% from 4.0 to 4.4.12 Night Ventilation
(Mechanical)Central fans are run at night to precool the building down to 24 C.
13 Night Ventilation (Natural) Windows are left open at night to precool the building down to 24 C.
14 Combined Measure Includes all the above strategies except for 4, 6, and 12.
•The USDOE and China’s MOST joint energy-efficient demonstration building with U.S. technologies•cross-shaped base building were determined and computer simulations used.
heat transfer through the envelope
cooling equipment efficiency
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
The Energy Use and Cost Saving of Building Shape
Heat Heat Cool Fan Total Total Load Gas Elec Elec Elec Energy Cost
MWh MWh MWh MWh MWh (‘000 Yuan)
Cross-Shaped Base Case 161.6 237.2 160.6 177.3 1112.1 645.4Square-Shaped Base Case 172.2 251.6 180.3 212.4 1167.4 675.7Difference 10.6 14.4 19.7 35.1 55.3 30.2
10.9 16.5 4.7 4.5% Difference 6.2 5.7
The shape of a building has a definite impact on its energy use characteristics. In a heating-dominant situation, a compact shape helps to reduce heat losses through the building shell and can improve the building’s energy efficiency.
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Energy and Energy Cost Saving between Base Case and Combined Measure
Site energy refers to the amount of energy consumed at the building; source energy refers to the amount of energy consumed at the power plant to provide that site energy to the consumer.
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Base Case Combined
Figure : Comparison of Energy Costs
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Base Case Combined
Figure : Comparison of Site Energy Use
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Base Case Combined
Equip Elec
Light Elec
Fans & Pumps
Cool Elec
Heat Elec
HWater Gas
Heat Gas
Figure : Comparison of Source Energy Use
•The energy cost savings from incorporating these measures into the Base Case design are estimated to be from 40 to 43%.
•cross-shaped design and the orientation can save an additional 5% or more of the energy costs.
•The total source energy reductions is: about 52% of the electricity savings or about 41% for combined source energy for natural gas and electricity.
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Elec. Elec.
price CostkWh/ (y) kWh/(y) (y) (¥/kWh) (¥/year) (¥/year) (¥) (¥) (y)
18-20 watt T12 86.4 1.62 0.84 72.64 113T10 76.9 9.5 1.62 0.84 64.65 7.99 103 9.73 0.21T9 74.2 12.19 1.62 0.84 62.39 10.25 100 12.63 0.2T8 68.3 18.11 1.62 0.84 57.42 15.22 93 19.41 0.16
30 watt T12 129.6 1.85 0.84 108.96 185T10 120.4 9.25 1.85 0.84 101.19 7.78 174 10.88 0.22T9 116.8 12.85 1.85 0.84 98.16 10.8 170 15.44 0.19T8 111.5 18.11 1.85 0.84 93.74 15.23 163 22.26 0.16
36-40 watt T12 172.8 1.85 0.84 145.29 244T10 159.1 13.66 1.85 0.84 133.8 11.49 227 16.89 0.15T9 153.3 19.52 1.85 0.84 128.88 16.41 219 24.51 0.12T8 143.1 29.74 1.85 0.84 120.28 25.01 206 38.08 0.1
LCC △ LCC PaybackAEC AEC difference
Lifetime Elec. Cost difference
Lamp group Options
Impact on Energy Efficient Fluorescent Lamp
The life-cycle cost analysis for Chinese fluorescent lamps
Three most widely used lamp groups are chosen here for further analysis, each characterized by its length (and associated wattage ranges): 600 mm (18–20 W), 900 mm (30 W), and 1200 mm (36–40 W) lamps. These products are distinguished and referenced by their tube diameters (T8–T12); typically the thinner lamps are more energy efficient.
Modest improvements in efficiency in a large market could lead to large aggregate reductions. In the case of China’s 2003 minimum energy efficiency standard for fluorescent lamps, these reductions could amount to 80 TWh in electricity use and almost 100 million tons in CO2 emissions reductions in the next 10 years.
Less than 3 months
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
A Case Study of the Impact of CHP
Case Installed Capacity
Installed Technology
Installation Cost
Electricity Purchased
Gas (k$) Energy
Cost Total Cost
Energy Cost Reduction
Overall Cost Reduction
Pay Back Year
kW k$ k$ For DER Gas only k$ k$ % % a
Do-Nothing
0 0 0 275.3 0 42.1 317.4 317.4
DER 300 NG--00300
36.4 125.2 112 28.8 266 302.5 -16.2% -4.7% 6.1
DER with CHP
300 NG-ABSHX-00300
58.5 83.8 129.4 6.7 219.9 278.4 -30.7 -12.3% 4.7
Retail
Sport facility
Hotel
Hospital
Office
5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000
electricity from CHP
cooling offset by waste heat recovery
utility electricity purchase
NG decrement from CHP
NG for heating
January Peak NG Loads with CHP (kW) July Peak Electric Loads with CHP (kW)
Table : Office Building DER-CAM Results
The peak load shift effect of prototype building
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Heat recovery for cooling is not economic for sports facility
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
The Economic and Environmental Effect of Prototype Buildings
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DERw ithCHP
Do-Nothing
DERw ithCHP
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DERw ithCHP
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Macrogrid On-site generators On-site heating
reduction 22.7%
Office Hospital Hotel Retail Sport Facility
reduction 32.4% reduction 34.3% reduction 34.4%
reduction 22.7%
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electricity purchase
investment costs
cost saving 12%pay back year4.7 years
Office Hospital Hotel Retail Sport facility
cost saving 21%pay back year3.4 years
cost saving 23%pay back year3.0 years
cost saving 11%pay back year6.8 years
cost saving 32%pay back year3.3 years
Figure: The economic effect of prototype building
Figure: The effect of prototype building carbon emission reduction
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Energy Efficiency Programs in China
With International Cooperation
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
LBNL China Activities
Equipment
IndustryBuildings
Energy and Emissions Savings
Cross-Cutting
Researchand
Policy Advice
Technical Assistance
Data Acq. &
Analysis
Institution & Capacity
Bldg
•Minimum Standards
•Voluntary Energy Labeling
•Residential Energy Consumption Survey
•Rural Household Energy
•Commercial and Residential Codes
•Demonstration Buildings
•Windows Labeling
•Energy Efficiency Agreements
•Motor Systems Design
•BEST Tool
•Refining & Product Quality
Building Shell•Shanghai ESCO Industry
•Energy Efficiency Investment Analysis
•National Energy Strategy Assessment
•Government Procurement
•Carbon Scenarios Study
•China Energy Databook
close work with China’s authorities for 10 years, since China first modernized their standards and codes.
worked with government and industrial partners to introduce international best practice
publication of compiled China energy and environmental data, and assistance in creating government programs.
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Accomplishment To Date• Buildings
– Appliance standards- 10 mandatory equipment efficiency standards- Reach standard
– Energy efficiency labels- 8 voluntary energy efficiency labeling specifications- Bilateral and regional harmonization
– Building codes- Residential and commercial buildings codes in 4 regions; window labeling
• Industry– Industrial energy efficiency agreements
- Pilot program in the iron & steel industry in Shandong; extending nationwide
– Motors systems optimization program• Cross-Cutting
– China’s low-carbon future research- Creation of major new policy analysis tool
– Data compilation and analysis- 6th Edition of China Energy Databook
– Government procurement- New (2005) mandatory policy designed on the US FEMP program
– Energy policy research and analysis– Institution building
- Beijing Energy Efficiency Center, Energy Foundation China Sustainable Energy Program
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
New technical basis for China’s appliance energy efficiency standards and labeling programs
• Technology Transfer
– Techno-economic analysis for standards (DOE)
– Technical analysis for labeling (EPA)• Methodology
—Engineering, Energy, Environmental, Finance, Social Impact Modeling
• International Collaboration—Harmonization of standards, labeling specifications
and test procedures (same test procedures and product classification)
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
External Power Supply Collaboration
• China, US EPA, California Energy Commission, Australia Greenhouse Office, EU Code of Conduct
• Agreement on new test procedure
• China led testing program; one dataset created
• Two international coordination meetings
• Coordination on proposed specification and product coverage
• Attendance at stakeholder meetings
• Joint announcement of program and joint US-China launch (1 January 2005)
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
China and Harmonization
• China is the key global power supply player
– More than 50% of global power supply production
– Number of power supply-containing products in homes and businesses is growing exponentially
– China is experiencing power shortages
• Harmonization recognizes the global market
– China exports over half of its power supply production
– China is a major exporter of power supply-containing products
• Harmonization benefits
– Lower manufacturers’ costs
– Lower testing costs
– Lower program administration costs
– Reduced barriers to trade
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Potential Savings in China
• Use of efficient power supplies in 12 major end-uses would reduce consumption by 1.23 TWh (half-percent of total residential energy use) or $86 million in consumer electricity charges
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Electricity consumption with existing EPS
Electricity consumption with efficient EPS
(3 products not shown)
largest possible savings
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Buildings: Training in Developing New Building Codes
New Residential Building Code
New Residential Building Code
Improved New Heating Zone
Residential Building Code
Shanghai CommercialCode
Commercial and Government Building Code (national)
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
The Industrial Sector Is Extremely Important in China
• Industrial production is necessary for China’s infrastructure development: roads, buildings, equipment
• High levels of industrial production and energy use has serious environmental consequences including air pollution, water pollution, industrial waste, and greenhouse gas emissions contributing to global warming
• The industrial sector represents 68% of all primary energy consumption in China
• There is strong growth in industrial primary energy use
• China is the world’s largest producer of cement, steel, and ammonia and in top-10 for production of aluminum, paper, and petroleum
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Efficiency Policy for Iron & Steel Industry
Voluntary Agreement
Sector TargetPolicy
General Economic and Political Environment
China’s Energy Efficiency Programs of the
1980s
Industrial Sector Policies in Developed
Countries
Planned Economy Market EconomyPlanned Economy Market Economy
Iron & steel sector largest in world; consumes 13% of Iron & steel sector largest in world; consumes 13% of total energy in Chinatotal energy in China
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Potential Energy Savings: Shandong Province Pilot and China Steel Sector
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2000 2005 2010
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Jigang EEALaigang BAU
Laigang EEAChina average
International advanced
The pilot encompassed two major plants in Shandong. Both were already better than the China average. Both plants agreed to increase their efficiency efforts based on actions identified with the BEST benchmarking tool to achieve by 2005 a level of efficiency equal to the advanced international level in 2000. A recent performance review showed that both plants were well on their way to achieving these targets.
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
The success of our work in China relies heavily on cooperation with a wide range of organizations and groups
U.S. Government Chinese Government
LBNL
* Other national labs* Universities* NGOs* International organizations
Chinese Counterparts
Foundations
•Funding support from US Government and private foundation sources
•Close work with Chinese government and research centers.
•Inform to US government agencies and support of bilateral US-China energy agreements.
•Internal and external experts
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Expected Future Efforts• Energy Consuming Equipment
– Additional product minimum standards
– New appliance standards implementation policy
– Additional labeled products
– Extension of standards & labeling approach to new initiatives such as government procurement
• Buildings
– Technical support for building codes
• Industry
– Expand individual studies to support national and provincial targets
• Cross cutting
– Fiscal and tax policy options for energy efficiency
– Improve data collection, particularly end-use
– Expand efforts to raise profile of energy efficiency policy
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Disaggregation of the SRES Scenarios
China Buildings Sector Example
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)
• Produced baseline scenarios to 2100
• Four major storylines: A1, A2, B1, B2
• Four world regions: OECD90, countries undergoing economic reform(REF), Asian nations (ASIA), and Africa and Latin American countries (ALM).
• Four marker scenarios
• Energy use, fossil-fuel CO2 emissions
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
SRES Storylines
A1: Rapid economic growth, low population growth, rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies
B1: Transition to a service-oriented economy with clean and efficient technologies, low population growth
A2: Slower economic and technological growth, high population growth
B2: Intermediate economic growth, moderate population growth, and less rapid but more diverse technological change
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
World and Asia Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions and Primary Energy Use, 1990-2030
Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide Emissions - WorldSRES Marker Scenarios
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Primary Energy Use - WorldSRES Marker Scenarios
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Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide Emissions - Asia Region
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Primary Energy - Asia
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Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Motivation
• IPCC-SRES – Most models lacked detail on energy demand by end-
use technology,
– Inadequate ability to capture the potential for efficiency
improvement and the impacts of efficiency programs
– Energy intensity improvement potential not disaggregated by• Energy efficiency• Usage• Technology size/scale
– Lack of intra-region disaggregation
• Some modelers have since begun to include demand-side
technologies – AIM for Asia for example
• Growing interest and demand for end-use global analysis
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Near- and Long-Term Goals
• Near-term Goals:
– Initiate a collaborative process for sectoral energy demand analysis
with IPCC authors and other collaborators
– Seek comments and commitments for collection of regional data
from participants
– Goal is to draft base case scenarios, particularly for the sectoral
chapters.
• Long-term goals:
– Develop a data base on demand-side technologies in order to
facilitate the development of energy scenarios
– Assess significance of technology potential and costs in a global
climate change model
– Provide input to LBNL and other energy and climate change models
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Database and Model: 10 World Regions
Region Marker Countries Collaborating Partners and Institutions
North America United States Jae Edmonds, PNNL (Modeling technologies)
Charlie Heaps, SEI-Boston
Joan Ogden, Shyam Menon, Attilio Pigneri, UC Davis (Transportation)
Pacific OECD Japan Yonghun Jung, APERC
Western Europe France, Germany, Italy, Sweden, UK
Fridtjof Unander, IEA
Ernst Worrell, Ecofys, IPCC
Central and Eastern Europe
Hungary Diana Vorsatz, IPCC CLA
Former Soviet Union Russia Yonghun Jung, APERC
Sub-Saharan Africa Senegal, South Africa Senegal, South Africa
Middle East and Northern Africa
Egypt Egypt
Latin America Brazil Roberto Schaffer, IPCC, LA
Centrally Planned Asia China Yu Cong, Jiang Kejun, IPCC, LA, China
Other Asia India Joyashree Roy, IPCC, CLA
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Data Needs: Drivers, Sector and Technology Structure
Buildings Industry Transport
Activity - population
- # households (electrified/non, urban/rural)
- m2 residential
- m2 commercial
-GDP
- Production
- economic (VA/VOS)
- physical (tonnes)
- personal
-person-km
- freight
-ton-km
Structure - By sub-sector
-residential
-commercial
- By end-use
- heating, cooling
- refrigeration
- appliances
- equipment
- lighting
- By sub-sector
- iron & steel
- non-ferrous
- cement
- pulp & paper
- chemicals
- etc…
- Product mix
- By Mode
- Road
- Rail
- Air
- Water
- By Vehicle Type
- Passenger car
- Truck
-- etc…
Energy Intensity - Technology
- saturation
- energy intensities
- efficiency
- usage
- size/features
- Technology
- saturation
- energy intensities
-Efficiency
-Usage
-Technology
- saturation
- energy intensities
- efficiency
- usage
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
China (B2 Marker Scenario): Driver Variables for Bottom-up Characterization of Buildings Sector
Driver Variables 2000 2030 AAGR
GDP (trillion yuan) (2004 projections) 9.1 58.7 6.4%
Population (millions) (2004 projections) 1,268 1,451 0.5%
Share urban population(2004 projections) 36% 61% 1.8%
Commercial building area (billion m2) (BECON adjusted down for B2 energy) 8.0 25.2 3.9%
Per capita living space--urban (m2/person) 19.9 37.0 2.1%
Per capita living space--rural (m2/person) 24.9 38.3 1.4%
Household size--urban (persons) 3.2 3.0 -0.2%
Household size--rural (persons) 4.4 4.1 -0.2%
Building Energy Demand (EJ) (Based on B2) 19.2 33.8 2.2%
Primary Energy - Asia and China
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Environmental Energy Technologies Division
China Buildings Sector (B2 Marker Scenario)Variables for Residential Buildings
Drivers
• population
• household sizes
• GDP, income
• household area per capita
• heating/cooling loads per m2
(including infiltration)
• lighting loads
• urbanization rates
• rural/urban splits
• heating/non-heating region splits
Technical characteristics• saturation levels of alternative
devices for each end use– cooking
– appliances (refrigerator, washing machine, TV, other)
– lighting (traditional, efficient)
– space heating
– space cooling
• energy types for devices– electricity
– fossil fuels
– biofuels
• energy & emissions intensities– by device, over time
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
China Buildings Sector (B2 Marker Scenario)Variables for Commercial Buildings
Drivers
• population, GDP, income
• commercial area per capita
• heating/cooling loads per m2
• lighting loads per m2
• heating/non-heating region splits
Building types
• hotel
• office
• Hospital
• Retail
• school
• other
Technical characteristics
• shares or saturation levels of alternative devices for each end use– space heating
– space cooling
– lighting
– other
• energy types for devices– electricity
– fossil fuels
• energy & emissions intensities– by device
– over time
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
China Buildings Sector (B2 Marker Scenario)Bottom-up Modeling Results (primary energy)
EJ Share
Energy Demand 2000 2030 2000 2030 AAGR
Residential buildings 13.4 17.6 63% 49% 0.9%
Commercial buildings 7.8 18.2 37% 51% 2.9%
Urban buildings 11.8 29.5 56% 82% 3.1%
Rural buildings 9.4 6.3 44% 18% -1.3%
Coal 4.3 4.1 20% 12% -0.1%
Natural gas 0.3 6.9 1% 19% 11.1%
Oil products 0.7 1.9 3% 5% 3.5%
Electricity 6.8 14.4 32% 40% 2.6%
Delivered heat 1.1 6.4 5% 18% 6.0%
Biomass 8.1 2.2 38% 6% -4.3%
China B2 Buildings
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2030
Pri
mar
y E
ner
gy
(EJ) Rural
Urban
China B2 Buildings
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2030
Pri
mar
y E
ner
gy
(EJ)
Biomass
Natural gas
Coal
Oil products
Electricity
Delivered heat
China B2 Buildings
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2030
Pri
mar
y E
nerg
y (E
J)
Commercial
Residential
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Example: Urban Residential RefrigeratorsEnergy Demand
ii refi
refurbrefurburbref UECsharesaturationhouseholdsE Indicator Units 2000 2010 2020 2030
Urban households millions 142 197 250 292Saturation of refrigerators % 80% 85% 90% 95%
Shares:
ordinary % 60% 60% 60% 60%
efficient % 30% 30% 30% 30%
very efficient % 10% 10% 10% 10%
Unit energy consumption:
ordinary kWh/yr 511 402 397 336
efficient kWh/yr 410 321 318 269 very efficient kWh/yr 327 257 255 215
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Example: Urban Residential RefrigeratorsB2 simulation results
China B2: Urban Refrigerators
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2000 2010 2020 2030
TW
h Efficient
Ordinary
Very Efficient
China B2: Urban Appliances
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2000 2010 2020 2030
TW
h
Refrigerators
Other
Washing Machines
TVs
•Refrigerators are a major electricity user
•They will account for over 40% of appliance energy use (excluding room air conditioners) and 20% of urban household electricity use in 2030.
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Example: Urban Residential RefrigeratorsSensitivity
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000 2010 2020 2030
Un
it E
ne
rgy
Co
ns
um
pti
on
(k
Wh
/yr)
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Ind
ex
(2
00
0 =
10
0)
Efficient
Ordinary size index
saturation index
Very Efficient
Current data on the Chinese market and information on possible future efficiency standards are used.
Three efficiency classes in each of three typical refrigerator sizes (170 liters, 220 liters, and 270 liters).
Average intensity are assumed to decline over the 2000 to 2030 period,
The average size of new refrigerators is assume to rise, as well as the rate of ownership, which increases from 80% of urban households to 95%.
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
As larger refrigerators grow to dominate energy consumption, the share of efficient models also rises.
China B2: Urban Refrigerators
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2000 2010 2020 2030
TW
h Efficient
Ordinary
Very Efficient
270 liter
220 liter
170 liter
220 liter
170 liter
Efficient
Ordinary
Very Efficient
Efficient
Ordinary
Very Efficient
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
The Global Energy Demand Database: A Shared Resource for Modelers Worldwide
Vision: The GED Database will be a collaboratively designed and created resource, maintained by LBNL for the use of all contributors. It will be a shared resource for project participants and collaborators.
• Ability of participating groups to provide data and documentation will determine GED database content.
• Each sector in each region will be built up from detailed data on energy consumption, technology, and drivers.
• Users are free to determine applications.
– For example, GED database used in the LBNL GED Model will allow simulation of demand consistent with existing scenarios as well as creation of new scenarios.
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
2005 Schedule
• January - April:
– Identify region/country/sector experts;
– LBNL to develop data collection spreadsheets, and aggregate default data
– Spreadsheets with default data sent to experts in April
• April - June:
– Experts prepare detailed data for the model
– Spreadsheets returned to LBNL in June
• June- September:
– LBNL to begin data analysis and scenario disaggregation
– Preliminary disaggregated baseline scenario developed
– Results provided to AR4 writing teams
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
• Thank you!
• 谢谢!• どうもありがとう
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Data Needs: Kaya Identity Applied at the End-Use Sector and Technology Level
Buildings Example
iRBii
iiRB EIH
F
PE ,,
ERB,I = energy demand in the residential buildings sector in region i,Pi = population in region i,Fi = number of persons per household (family) in region i,Hi = average floor area per household in region i in m2, andEIRB,I= average energy intensity in the residential sector in region i in MJ/m2-year.
OPTION
k
OPTION
m
OPTION
niii
jjijiiiinm
im
imiRB RLCUECpSCSHH
F
PE ,,,,
,
,,
k = energy type m = locale type (urban, rural)n = housing type (detached home, multifamily unit, other home)SHi = space heating energy intensity in residential buildings in region i in MJ/m2-year,SCi = space cooling energy intensity in residential buildings in region i in MJ/m2-year,j = type of appliance or end-use device,pi,j = penetration of appliance or device j in region i,UECi,j = average energy intensity of appliance j in region i Ci = average cooking and water heating energy use per household in region i, Li = average lighting energy use per household in region i, andRi = residual household energy use in region i.
End-use Sector Level
Technology Level
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Primary Energy - Asia
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Exa
jou
les
SRES B2 Marker Scenario - Asia Sector Disaggregation
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Prim
ary
Ener
gy (E
J)
-
50
100
150
200
250
Transport
Industry
Buildings
Asia
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
SRES B2 Marker Scenario - ChinaSector Disaggregation
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Pri
mar
y E
ner
gy
(EJ)
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
Transport
Industry
Buildings
China
Asia
China
Primary Energy - Asia and China
-
50
100
150
200
250
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Pri
mar
y E
ner
gy
(EJ)
Asia
China
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Table 4. Annual Energy Costs calculated by DOE-2 for Proposed Demonstration Building
(years) (years)Base Case 410 1112 69 577 645 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.Light Wall and Roof Color
418 1102 70 571 641 4.1 0 0 0 0Recessed Windows 419 1086 70 563 634 11.8 0 0 0 0Window Overhangs 416 1091 70 566 636 9.7 63 63 6.5 6.5Daylighting (Bi-level Switch)
438 844 74 421 494 151.1 99 99 0.7 0.7Daylighting (Automatic) 438 841 74 419 492 153 320 320 2.1 2.1Energy Efficient Lighting 441 877 74 451 525 120.6 66 346 0.5 2.9Low-E Windows 430 1020 72 530 602 43.5 130 1156 3 26.5Reduce Window Height 415 1080 70 560 630 15.6 -40 -40 0 02-Stage Chillers 410 1093 69 567 636 9.6 250 250 25.9 25.9Increased Chiller COP 410 1099 69 570 639 6.7 100 100 15 15Night Venting (Mechanical)
450 1187 76 596 671 -25.8 0 0 * *Night Venting (Natural) 450 1081 76 560 636 9.8 0 0 0 0Combined Measure 515 584 87 292 378 267.4 579 1680 2.2 6.3
* Full operating conditions
('000 yuan) ('000 yuan)
Nat. Gas Cost
Total Energy
Cost
Energy Cost
Savings
Incre- mental 1st
Cost
* measure is counterproductive and increases energy costs; therefore there is no payback period.
Nat. Gas Use
Elec. Use
Elec. Cost
Market Comp.
1st Cost
Market Comp.
Payback August 1999 Design
Incre- mental
Payback(MWh) ('000 yuan)
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Energy and Energy Cost Saving between Base Case and Combined Measure
Heat Load Heat Gas HWater Gas
Heat Elec
Cool Elec
Fans & Pumps
Light Elec
Equip Elec
Total Elec
(MWh) (MWh)
Base Case 40 29 4 83 92 281 116 577Combined 57 29 5 31 40 103 111 292Savings 18 0 1 -52 -52 -178 -4 -285% Savings 44% 0% 24% -62% -56% -63% -4% -49%
Base Case 162 237 173 9 161 177 543 223 1112Combined 241 342 173 11 63 80 207 223 584Savings 79 105 0 2 -98 -97 -336 0 -528% Savings 49% 44% 0% 28% -61% -55% -62% 0% -48%
Base Case 237 173 31 589 651 1992 819 4081Combined 342 173 40 230 294 759 819 2143Savings 105 0 9 -359 -357 -1232 0 -1939% Savings 44% 0% 28% -61% -55% -62% 0% -48%
Notes :
August 1999 Design
-41%
2658-1834
Source Energy Consumption (MWHe)2, 3
4491
-423 -449-28% -31%
1522 14471099 997
Site Energy Consumption (MWHe)-41%
378-267
Energy Cost (,000 yuan)1
645
(MWh) (MWh) (MWh) (MWh)
Total w/ Gas Heat
Total w/ Steam Heat
Site energy refers to the amount of energy consumed at the building; source energy refers to the amount of energy consumed at the power plant to provide that site energy to the consumer.
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
The Impact of Energy Efficient Technologies in Building Sector —DHC and
CHP
China: District heating plants provided space heat accounting for nearly one-eighth of total floor space with space heating. The thermal efficiency is 80 percent for CHP plants and 70 percent for district boilers, far exceeding the 50 percent efficiency of the small-scale boilers that they replaced. In 1998, the 120 TWh of power and 1.036 billion GJ of heat generated by CHP plants saved 41million tonnes of coal while reducing particulate emissions by 620,000 tonnes, sulphur dioxide emissions by 820,000 tonnes, and carbon dioxide emissions by 1.8 million tonnes. Local air quality has improved a lot due to CHP plants. For example, total suspended particulates in Mudanjiang city during the winter fell from 800 mg to 369 mg per cubic metre after a CHP plant entered service.
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Space heating
Space cooling
Cooking
Water heating
Lighting
Appliances
Single-family dwellings
Multi-family dwellings
Other dwellings
Electrified Non-electrified
Urban Rural
Electrified Non-electrified
Furnace
Electric resistance
Heat pump
District heating
Stove
Single-family dwellings
Multi-family dwellings
Other dwellings
Country X
Region A
LBNL Model Structure (LEAP): Intra-Regions, LBNL Model Structure (LEAP): Intra-Regions, Sectors, End-Uses and TechnologiesSectors, End-Uses and Technologies
Refrigerators
Clothes washers
Dish washers
TVs
Others
end uses technologies energy types
• countries
• regions
• locales
•electrification status
•dwelling types
• end uses
• energy types
• technologies
Electricity
Gas fuels
Liquid fuels
Solid fossil fuels
Biomass fuels