Energy Efficiency Potential Study - emnrd.state.nm.us€¦ · Comparison of baseline and EE...

© 2010 1

Energy Efficiency Potential StudyProject Briefing for Stakeholders

Prepared for

Energy Conservation and Management Division

State of New Mexico, EMNRD

by

Global Energy Partners, LLC

September 29-30, 2010

© 2010

Topics

Introductions

Overview of the study

Analysis steps and approach

Meetings – project kick-off and stakeholder meetings

Market characterization

Baseline forecast

Estimating (EE) potential

Estimating demand response (DR) potential

Strategies to achieve the potential

Reports and presentations

Timeline, key milestones, project team members

Wrap up

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© 2010

The Project Team: Global Energy Partners & The Brattle Group

Key team members

Ingrid Rohmund, Director

Bridget Kester, Manager

Debyani Ghosh, Asst. Manager

Greg Wikler, Advisor

Ahmad Faruqui, Ph.D. (Brattle) Project advisor

Recent projects*:

AmerenUE DSM potential

PECO Energy DSM Plan and program design

FERC National Assessment of Demand Response

EPRI National Potential Study

BPA DR Strategy, Potential, Awareness and Pilots

EPRI Energy Efficiency Planning Guidebook

Midwest ISO DSM potential study (GEP)

Con Edison of NY efficiency potential (GEP)

Avista and Inland Power & Light CPAs (GEP)

FERC National DR Action Plan (Brattle)

*Joint unless otherwise noted

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© 2010

Purpose and background

Purpose

Conduct a statewide energy efficiency potential study to determine the potential for development of specific natural gas and electric energy efficiency measures in the various regions of New Mexico.

Information will be used by each utility in implementing cost-effective energy efficiency and load management programs under New Mexico’s Efficient Use of Energy Act (EUEA).

Background

EUEA directs New Mexico to support public utility development of all cost-effective energy efficiency and load management measures. These measures include removing regulatory disincentives and allowing rate recovery of energy efficiency and load management program costs. Under PRC rules, IOU gas and electric public utility must obtain PRC approval of energy efficiency programs, implement those programs, and report their results and costs.

No comprehensive statewide study has been conducted to date, although some entities have conducted their own studies.

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Objectives

Provide information to the public

Identify energy-efficiency measures that meet the total resource cost (TRC) test

Specify measures relating to housing and building structures and appliances

Address climate zones and other geographic considerations, as well as utility service areas

Describe and quantify the strategies for implementing those measures in a manner that produces the maximum achievable energy savings

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Overview of scope of work

Energy efficiency (EE) assessment

Identify, define and quantify technically feasible EE measures

Identify and rank those most likely to meet cost effectiveness requirements

Estimate realistic achievable potential

Demand response (DR) assessment

Identify, define and quantify DR options

Estimate realistic achievable potential

Strategy for achieving EE and DR savings

Program design

New technologies

Role of codes and standards

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© 2010

Approach for estimating potential

Baseline forecasting

Customer surveys

Secondary data

Forecast data

Prototypes and

energy analysis

Market characterizationUtility data

EE measure list

Measure descriptionMeasure screening

Customer acceptanceProgram results

Best-practices research

Establish objectives

Base-year energy use by fuel, segment

End-use forecast by

fuel, segment

Technical and economic potential

Achievable potential

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© 2010

Example – The starting point is energy use by end use today

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Residential (1,403 TWh)

Water Heat

8%

Washers

1%

Dishwashers

2%

Color TV

8%

PCs

2%

Furnace Fans

1%

Space heat

7%Other Uses

22% Air conditioning

17%

Refrigeration

8%

Dryers

5%

Cooking

2%

Freezers

2%

Lighting

15%

Commercial (1,350 TWh)

Lighting

25%

Other

34% Water heat

3%

Ventilation

4%

Cooling

10%

Refriger-

ation

5%

Office

equipment

16%

Space heat

3%

Industrial (964 TWh)

HVAC

9%

Lighting

7%

Other

14% Machine

drive

51%

Process

heating

19%

Source: Assessment of Achievable Potential from Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Programs in the U.S. (2010 – 2030).

EPRI, Palo Alto, CA: 2009. 1016987

© 2010

Example: Baseline forecast for residential

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-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2008 2010 2020 2030

An

nu

al

Ele

ctr

icit

y U

se (

TW

h)

Space Heat

Air Conditioning

Furnace Fans

Water Heating

Refrig/Freez

Appliances

Lighting

Electronics

Other Uses

© 2010

Example: Estimates of EE potentialResidential AC measure savings in 2030

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- 4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000

Foundation Insulation

Windows

Wall Insulation

Ceiling Insulation

Dehumidifier

AC Maintenance

Whole-House Fan

Duct Insulation

Infiltration Control

Ceiling Fan

Reflective Roof

Efficient Room AC

Duct Repair

Efficient Central AC

Programmable Thermostat

Savings (GWh)

RAP

MAP

© 2010

Example: Estimates of EE potentialSummary of residential savings

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- 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Furnace Fans

Space Heating

Water Heating

Lighting

Appliances

Cooling

Electronics

Cumulative Electricity Savings (TWh)

2030

2020

2010

© 2010

Example: Summary of U.S. EE potential

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Technical

PotentialEconomic

PotentialMaximum

Achievable

Potential

Realistic

Achievable

Potential

2010

2020

2030

29.1%

13.6%

11.2%

8.2%

26.3%

12.5%10.1%

4.8%

8.7%

5.0%

2.1%0.5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Perc

en

t o

f T

ota

l L

oad

Sector 2010 2020 2030Residential (GWh) 12,127 64,374 139,637Commercial (GWh) 6,455 96,878 179,632Industrial (GWh) 2,027 45,696 78,736Total (GWh) 20,609 206,947 398,005

© 2010

Example: Estimates of EE potentialComparison of baseline and EE forecasts

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2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

An

nu

al

Ele

ctr

icit

y U

se

(T

Wh

)

Baseline Forecast

Realistic Achievable Potential

Maximum Achievable Potential

Economic Potential

Technical Potential

Actual

RAP offsets

35% of growth

between 2010

and 2030

© 2010

Project tasks

1. Project kick-off and work plan development

2. Stakeholder input sessions

3. Primary market research

4. Develop estimates of potential

5. Strategy development

6. Final report and presentations

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© 2010

1. Kickoff and work plan

Kickoff meeting held on August 3, 2010

Refined objectives

Became acquainted and established contacts

Developed preliminary segmentation approach

Refined the work plan by August 31, 2010

Distributed data request to NM utilities and entities

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Preliminary segmentation for electricity

Electricity analysis

Isolate three major IOUs (PNM, SPS/Xcel, El Paso)

Gather data for municipal utilities, rural cooperatives and Navajo Tribal Utility Authority

Residential sector by housing type

Non-residential sector: Separate commercial and industrial based on rate class and NAICS code

Small is <200 kW

Large is 200+ kW

Building vintage: existing buildings and new construction

We will recommend a segmentation scheme for non-IOUs based on the data we receive

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Preliminary segmentation for natural gas

Natural gas analysis

Isolate NM Gas

Gather data for other gas companies

Residential sector by housing type

Non-residential sector: Separate commercial and industrial based on rate class and NAICS code

Small is <200,000 therms

Medium is > 200,000 and < 2,000,000 therms

Large is 2,000,000+ therms

Building vintage: existing buildings and new construction

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Data request

Market characterization

Electricity by sector and size

Number of customers

Base-year sales (GWh)

Base-year summer peak demand (MW)

Natural gas by sector

Number of customers

Base-year sales

Utility data

Customer surveys

Forecasts

Electricity sales

Peak demand

Natural gas sales

Status of AMI

Avoided costs

Existing and planned utility programs

Potential studies

Program plans

IRP

Evaluation studies

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2. Stakeholder input sessions

Objectives

Engage stakeholders to review work plan

Establish pathway for communication

Meetings held in Las Cruces and Santa Fe

Outcome of meetings will be delivered to EMNRD in written report

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3. Primary market research

Objective is to gather information about

Appliance/end-use saturations and inventories

Particularly for lighting, electronics, IT

Saturation of EE measures

Customer behavior and likely participation in EE and DR programs

Barriers to engaging in EE and DR programs

Conduct telephone and/or online surveys with

~1,000 residential customers

~1,000 business customers

Combine results with existing surveys and secondary sources

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4. Develop estimates of EE and DR potential

Overview of analysis approach

Introduction to LoadMAP modeling framework

Develop baseline forecast

Identify and characterize EE and DR measures

Estimate EE and DR potential

Allocate estimates to utilities

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Approach for estimating EE potential

Baseline forecasting

Customer surveys

Secondary data

Forecast data

Prototypes and

energy analysis

Market characterizationUtility data

EE measure list

Measure descriptionMeasure screening

Customer acceptanceProgram results

Best-practices research

Establish objectives

Base-year energy use by fuel, segment

End-use forecast by

fuel, segment

Technical and economic potential


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LoadMAPTM

Load Management Analysis and Planning tool

1. An end-use forecasting model built upon well-established end-use modeling framework

Similar to EPRI’s REEPS and COMMEND (but simpler)

2. An analysis tool for estimating DSM potential

1. Measure lists

2. Cost-effectiveness screening

3. Technical, economic and achievable potential

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© 2010

Baseline end-use forecast

Definition :

Comprehensive end-use forecast

Forecast without future utility programs

Incorporates appliance standards and building codes already on the books

Typically includes naturally occurring efficiency also

Steps to developing the baseline forecast:

1. End-use segmentation

2. Energy market profiles –snapshot of current energy use

3. Technologies/efficiency options available today and in the future

4. Forecast data and assumptions

5. Assess and compare with existing forecasts

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© 2010

Example of end-use segmentation

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Residential Commercial IndustrialCooling Cooling Process Heating

Central AC Central Chiller Electric resistance

Room AC Packaged AC Radio frequency

Space Heating PTAC Process Cooling and Refrigeration

Electric Resistance Space Heating Machine Drive

Electric Furnace Electric Resistance 1-5 hp motors

Combined Heating/Cooling Combined Heating/Cooling 5-20 hp motors

Air Source Heat Pump Air Source Heat Pump 20-50 hp motors

Geo-Thermal Heat Pump Geo-thermal Heat Pump 50-100 hp motors

Water Heating Water Heating 100-200 hp motors

Interior Lighting Interior Lighting 200-500 hp motors

Screw-in Screw-in 500-1,000 hp motors

Linear Fluorescent Linear Fluorescent 1,000-2,500 hp motors

Exterior Lighting Exterior Lighting >2,500 hp motors

Screw-in Screw-in Facility HVAC

Linear Fluorescent Linear Fluorescent Facility lighting

Appliances Refrigeration Incandescent

Refrigerator Walk-in Refrigeration Fluorescent

Freezer Reach-in Refrigeration HID

Clothes Washer Office Equipment

Clothes Dryer PC

Combined Washer/Dryer Server

Dishwasher Monitor

Cooking Printer/Copier

Electronics Food Service

Personal Computer Ventilation

Color TV Miscellaneous

Other Electronics

Miscellaneous

Pool Pump

Furnace Fan

Other Miscellaneous

© 2010

Example of an energy market profile: Residential sector

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End Use Technology SaturationUEC Intensity Usage

(kWh) (kWh/HH) (GWh)

Cooling Central AC 86% 3,985 3,433 1,587

Cooling Room AC 13% 3,188 410 190

Space Heating Electric Resistance 5% 18,214 910 421

Space Heating Electric Furnace 0% 18,943 - -

Heat/Cool Air Source Heat Pump 13% 14,004 1,820 842

Heat/Cool Geo-Thermal Heat Pump 0% 9,242 - -

Water Heating Water Heater 24% 2,793 663 307

Interior Lighting Screw-in 100% 1,242 1,242 574

Interior Lighting Linear Fluorescent 100% 243 243 112

Exterior Lighting Screw-in 85% 374 318 147

Exterior Lighting Linear Fluorescent 85% 73 62 29

Appliances Refrigerator 100% 891 891 412

Appliances Freezer 42% 376 157 73

Appliances Second Refrigerator 20% 1,326 265 123

Appliances Clothes Washer 96% 561 540 250

Appliances Clothes Dryer 84% 821 693 321

Appliances Combined Washer/Dryer 0% 786 - -

Appliances Dishwasher 61% 173 105 49

Appliances Cooking 71% 750 533 247

Electronics Personal Computer 65% 470 306 142

Electronics Color TV 96% 313 300 139

Electronics Other Electronics 100% 343 343 159

Miscellaneous Pool Pump 13% 2,671 339 157

Miscellaneous Furnace Fan 68% 431 293 136

Miscellaneous Other Miscellaneous 100% 194 194 90

Total 14,069 6,505

Cooling26%

Space Heating11%

Combined Heating/Cooling

11%Water Heating

6%

Interior Lighting

10%

Exterior Lighting3%

Appliances21%

Electronics7%

Miscellaneous5%

End-use shares of total

residential sector use

Key data sources

Market characterization data Previous potential studies Previous customer surveys Results from Task 3 Prototypes and BESTTM analysis

© 2010

Technology data

Technology data for forecast

List of efficiency options for each technology

Include appliance/efficiency standards already in place

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Technology Efficiency Label UEC Savings

Central AC E1 SEER 13 4,031 0%






Central AC E7 Ductless VRF 2,357 42%

© 2010

Forecast data and assumptions

Forecast drivers

Customer growth

Other exogenous variables

Energy prices

Income

Usage elasticities by end use for each exogenous variable

Borrowed from EPRI end-use models

Technology forecasts

Equipment purchase shares by decision type

Replace on burnout

New construction

Non-owner acquisition

Shares are user defined

Defaults based on trends in EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook

Incorporate existing appliance/equipment standards

Will be refined using New Mexico data

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© 2010

Example: Baseline residential forecast

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End use 2008 2010 2020 2030%

Increase

Average

Growth

Rate

Space Heat 95,586 89,212 97,007 100,599 5% 0.2%

Air Conditioning 233,372 251,357 294,732 340,326 46% 1.7%

Furnace Fans 19,219 20,304 23,679 26,203 36% 1.4%

Water Heating 111,661 112,721 126,625 130,450 17% 0.7%

Refrigerators 110,451 107,936 110,056 118,955 8% 0.3%

Freezers 23,827 23,766 27,485 33,988 43% 1.6%

Dishwashers 27,428 27,183 28,699 32,286 18% 0.7%

Cooking 31,017 31,820 37,408 42,212 36% 1.4%

Clothes Washers 9,994 9,645 8,036 8,306 -17% -0.8%

Clothes Dryers 74,337 74,702 81,024 89,726 21% 0.9%

Lighting 214,205 211,220 152,381 147,992 -31% -1.7%

Personal Computers 23,094 27,989 36,404 47,816 107% 3.3%

Color TV 109,238 115,247 128,111 168,074 54% 2.0%

Other Uses 319,205 350,581 421,978 500,294 57% 2.0%

Total 1,402,634 1,453,685 1,573,622 1,787,225 27% 1.1%

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2008 2010 2020 2030

An

nu

al

Ele

ctr

icit

y U

se

(T

Wh

)

Space Heat

Air Conditioning

Furnace Fans

Water Heating

Refrig/Freez

Appliances

Lighting

Electronics

Other Uses



© 2010

Steps to estimating EE potential

Identify and characterize EE measures

Uses technology data from baseline forecast

Includes additional measures

Perform economic screen

Requires measure costs and economic assumptions for TRC

Apply awareness,market adoption rates

Technical potential

Economic potential


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© 2010

Identify and describe EE measures

Analysis steps

Develop measure list

Start with Global’s universal list of measures

Add/subtract measures

Speculate about ―new‖ technologies

Characterize measures

Description

Measure life

Applicability/feasibility

Annual energy and peak demand savings

Costs

Data sources

Other potential studies

Other databases:

DEER

DEEM/BEST analysis

Other studies

Existing program information

Evaluation studies

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Perform economic screening and estimate achievable potential

Approach for economic screening

Apply total resource cost test (TRC) to each

Measure

Segment

Year

If benefit/cost ratio is greater than 1.0, include in economic potential

Perform screening for avoided-cost scenarios

Data needs

Avoided costs

Discount rates

Escalation rates

Achievable potential analysis approach

Start with measures that pass the economic screen

In Task 5, identify

Awareness

Adoption rates

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4b. Estimate demand response potential

Identify market segmentation approach

Recommend rate class – residential, small C&I, medium C&I, large C&I

Develop revised peak demand forecast

After savings from EE are applied

Identify capacity-constraint time period

Summer peak day (hot weather)

Other (e.g., top 100 hours)

Identify and characterize relevant DR options

Estimate potentials

Need to identify which levels of potential to estimate

© 2010

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Relevant DR options

Dynamic pricing options

Critical peak pricing

Peak-time rebate

Real time pricing

Incentive-based options

Interruptible/curtailabletariffs

Direct load control

Switches

PCTs

Auto DR

Demand bidding/buyback

Ancillary services

Need to map options to sectors/segments

© 2010

Approach for estimating DR potential

Develop baseline forecast by segment

Peak by segment

Customer by segment

Program data

Participants in base year

Forecast of participants

Per customer impacts in base year

Estimate achievable potential

Assess cost effectiveness

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5. Develop strategies

Focus on strategies to maximize customer adoption of EE and DR programs:

Program design

Marketing

Approach

Conduct independent best-practices research to identify high-achieving programs and critical success factors

Use Delphi method to gather expert opinion

Use two-pronged research to develop recommendations for New Mexico

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Types of EE programs offered nationwide

Information-based initiatives (e.g., customer awareness, advertising)

Technical assistance (e.g., audits, direct installs, etc.)

Rebates for the installation of pre-specified measures

Rebates for customized measures

Rebates for new construction measures and practices

Financing programs for energy efficiency

Targeted low-income customer campaigns

Initiatives targeting specific customer groups (e.g., government, schools, etc.)

© 2010

Types of DR programs offered nationwide

Direct control of end-use loads, including A/C and water heating

Curtailable contracts

Dynamic pricing programs, such as critical peak pricing, peak-time rebate

Capacity market programs

Technology enablement initiatives, such as automated DR

© 2010

Channel strategies – Most effective roles of various channels

Trade allies--partner with utility to design, supply and install EE measures; deliver program message and incentives to consumers

Trade associations--facilitate education of nonresidential and residential consumers

Community groups--provide workforce for events, education, and distribution/installation; raise profile of promo events

News media—provide promotion via paid advertising, education via reporting on energy issues & programs available

Government agencies--cost-share and champion public facility programs, coordinate low-income programs

Utility staff--range from administration only (turnkey outsource) to hands-on delivery (recruitment to incentives processing); always set and track goals

Third-party implementers--operate turnkey programs or individual components, provide education

© 2010

Customer education – Best practices

General EE vs. Program-Specific Education

Almost all utilities use bill inserts regularly to raise awareness and understanding of energy efficiency benefits and periodically promote a single program/measure

Almost all utilities combine some amount of general EE information with specific program information

e.g., Did you know that cutting your electricity use by just x% reduces carbon emissions by… And right now you can save $x on the purchase of a new ENERGY STAR® refrigerator…

© 2010

Customer education (cont.)

All successful programs have a strong educational component.

Audits used extensively to educate residential and business customers (window of opportunity)

Education and outreach directed to specific target markets is mostly conducted in person

Low-income customers-- part of in-home audits, general assistance, community outreach meetings

A&E contractors-- seminars for new construction design

Community campaigns and contests increasingly used to raise awareness of schools, neighborhood businesses, etc.

Engaging trade/industry associations and news media to run topical series in publications/meetings/shows effectively raises EE IQ and sparks inquiries about programs

© 2010

6. Final deliverables

Reports

Final report will document entire study

Will be based upon interim deliverables

Draft report will be provided well in advance of the final to allow for review

Final report delivered in June 2011

Meet ARRA reporting requirements

Presentations

At conclusion of study, there will be a formal presentation

Draft presentation will be delivered in advance

May also conduct one or more webinars

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© 2010

Project organization

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EMNRD Project ManagerKen Hughes

Global Project DirectorI. Rohmund

Global Project ManagerBridget KesterDebyani Ghosh

Senior AdvisorGreg Wikler

SubcontractorThe Brattle Group

1: Kickoff & Work PlanIngrid Rohmund

3: Primary Market ResearchBarb Ryan

4: PotentialsEE – Sharon YoshidaDR – Debyani Ghosh

5: StrategyGreg Wikler

Ahmad Faruqui

2: Stakeholder MeetingsBridget Kester

6. Final Report and PresentationsBridget Kester

New Mexico

© 2010

Project schedule

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Task Description Due Date

1 Project kickoff and work plan September 1

2 Stakeholder input sessions October 1

3 Primary market research December 31

4 Potentials estimates February 28, 2011

5 Strategy analysis April 30, 2011

6 Final report and formal presentations June 15, 2011

© 2010

Contact Information

Global Energy Partners, LLC

Ingrid [email protected]

760-943-1532

Bridget [email protected]

858-780-2635

Debyani [email protected]

925-482-2002

Greg [email protected]

925-482-2010

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The Brattle Group

Ahmad Faruqui, Ph.D.

[email protected]

415-217-1026

Doug Mitarotonda, Ph.D.

[email protected]

415-217-1033

mailto:[email protected]






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