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Energy Efficiency Potential and Programs for Residential, … Potential for... · and Programs for...
Transcript of Energy Efficiency Potential and Programs for Residential, … Potential for... · and Programs for...
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ICF Proprietary and Confidential – Do Not Copy, Distribute, or Disclose
Energy Efficiency Potential
and Programs for
Residential, Commercial,
Industrial FacilitiesBill Prindle
Vice President
NCSL Webinar
July 8, 2010
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Overview• Review energy efficiency potential
• Examine specific efficiency opportunities in
residential, commercial, industrial facilities
• Identify market barriers that limit efficiency
investments
• Define program models that can penetrate
barriers
• Outline roles that state legislatures can play in
enabling effective programs
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Latest U.S. Efficiency Potential Study
• Conducted by McKinsey in 2009, sponsored by EPA
and several other organizations
• Builds on and consistent with other studies over the
past decade, such as:
• DOE’s Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future
• State potential studies by ACEEE and others
• Provides the most comprehensive national efficiency
potential assessment yet conducted
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Carbon emissions
Gigatons CO2e*
End-use consumption
Quadrillion BTUs
*Includes carbon emission abatement potential from CHP
Source:EIA AEO 2008, McKinsey analysis
U.S. Efficiency Potential EstimatesResidential
-9.1
Baseline
2020
Baseline
case,
2008
30.8
36.9
39.9
NPV-
positive
case, 2020
3.2
NPV-
positive
case, 2020
Baseline
2020
4.3
Baseline
case,
2008
3.9
-26%
Savings
-23%
-18%
-29%
-28%
Industrial
Commercial
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Efficiency: the Cheapest Carbon Savings
0
0 1.0 1.2 1.4
90
1.8 2.00.2 2.2 2.4
30
2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2
60
-120
-30
-60
1.6
-90
CostReal 2005 dollars per ton CO2e
0.4 0.6 0.8
Residential
electronics
Commercial
electronics
Residential
buildings –
Lighting
Commercial
buildings –
LED lighting
Commercial
buildings – CFL
lighting
Industry –
Combined
heat and
power
Commercial
buildings –
combined heat
and power
Commercial
buildings –
Control systems
Industrial
process
improvements
Residential
water
heaters
Residential
buildings –
New shell
improve-
ments
Potential
Gigatons CO2e
per year
Commercial buildings – New shell improvements
Electric motor systems
Fire & steam systems improvement
Refrigeration
Commercial water heaters
Advanced process control
Non-refrigerator appliances
-230
Source:McKinsey analysis
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Residential Efficiency Measures
• Building envelope:
• Insulation
• Windows
• Air sealing
• Duct sealing
• Passive solar design—window area/orientation,
shading, thermal mass
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Residential Efficiency Measures
Heating/cooling/hot water systems
• High efficiency boiler/furnace
• High efficiency air conditioner
• High efficiency fan/pump
• Geothermal heat pump
• Correct sizing and installation key to performance
• High-efficiency water heater—tankless, condensing,
heat pump
• Efficient distribution—ducts, pipes
• ENERGY STAR product specs cover most of these
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Residential Efficiency Measures
Appliances and ―plug loads‖—fastest growing set
of end uses
• ―white goods‖—refrigerator, clothes washer,
dishwasher
• Lighting—permanent fixtures, movable fixtures
• Home entertainment—TV, DVR, DVD, game console,
audio
• Home office—computer, printer, scanner, fax
• Phone and other battery recharging
• ENERGY STAR product specs cover most of these
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Commercial Efficiency Measures
Building envelope
• Insulation (typically less important than residential)
• Windows (heat gain more important than heat loss)
• Air sealing—less feasible than in residential
• Duct sealing
• Passive solar design—geometry, orientation, shading,
window area
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Commercial Efficiency Measures
Heating/cooling/hot water systems
• Much wider range of technologies—including
boiler/furnace but also combined heat and power,
thermally-activated cooling
• Sizing of HVAC systems highly dependent on other
design features
• Commissioning, operation and maintenance key to
efficiency performance
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Commercial Efficiency Measures
Lighting
• Key commercial load—up to 50% of total use
• Many efficiency opportunities—T8, T5 fluorescent,
LED, HID
• Design choices affect total lighting needs—task
lighting, etc.
• Daylighting can contribute significantly, but needs right
architecture and controls
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Commercial Efficiency Measures
Other loads• Office equipment
• IT—workstations, peripherals, printers, servers, data
centers
• Increasingly networked systems• Network software solutions can ―smartly‖ power down
components
• Data centers offer huge opportunities• Efficient servers
• Efficient HVAC design
• Server ―virtualization‖ to optimally load equipment
• ENERGY STAR specs for computers, office
equipment, data centers, servers
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Industrial Efficiency Measures
Common energy services
• Steam/hot water/chilled water
• Compressed air
• Motor systems
Process-specific technologies
• Heating/melting/heat treating
• Drying/curing
• Distillation
• And many others….
ENERGY STAR plants defined for many sectors
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Barriers to Efficiency Investment
Access to capital
• Efficiency comes in small bites
• Project sizes don’t attract capital market players
Market fragmentation
• Over 100 million buildings
• Many smaller markets serving these buildings
• Industries with hundreds of thousands of small
companies
1
4
Source: McKinsey analysis
FUNDAMENTAL CHALLENGES OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY
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Barriers to Efficiency Investment
Market Barriers
• Principal-agent—homebuilder vs. homebuyer, landlord
vs. tenant, facility manager vs. procurement dept.
• Transaction costs—small purchases don’t warrant
study; information hard to find/analyze
Cognitive-behavioral barriers
• Efficiency bundled with other attributes
• Perception of risk/challenge of proving performance
• Cultural-social norms and practices
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Utility Programs and Incentives
Source: NAPEE website at http://www.epa.gov/cleanenergy/energy-programs/suca/resources.html
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How Programs Touch Markets
Source: http://www.epa.gov/cleanenergy/energy-programs/suca/resources.html
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Example: C/I Retrofit Program
Typical measures: motors/drives, compressed air leaks, steam
traps, lighting
Source: http://www.epa.gov/cleanenergy/energy-programs/suca/resources.html
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Example: Home Retrofits Program
Typical measures: CFLs, air conditioners, water heating, air sealing, duct
sealing
Source: http://www.epa.gov/cleanenergy/energy-programs/suca/resources.html
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Efficiency Program Best Practices:
ACEEE Exemplary Programs
Source: http://www.aceee.org/utility/bestpractoc.pdf
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Efficiency Program Best Practices:
ACEEE Exemplary Programs
Source: http://www.aceee.org/utility/bestpractoc.pdf
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Efficiency Program Best Practices:
ACEEE Exemplary Programs
Source: http://www.aceee.org/utility/bestpractoc.pdf
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Efficiency Program Best Practices:
ACEEE Exemplary Programs
Source: http://www.aceee.org/utility/bestpractoc.pdf
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Emerging Program Models
Information/behavior-based programs• Innovated by companies like OPower, Grounded Power
• Customer usage data mined for key information
• Benchmarking, goal-setting, feedback are key
• May be linked to conventional incentive programs
• Example: Building Performance with ENERGY STAR
• Example: corporate sustainability programs
Smart Grid-linked programs• May incorporate info-based concepts as above
• Provide better data, support key M&V goals
• Linked to demand response, dynamic pricing, appliance
control options
• Drive peak reduction as well as energy savings
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State Efficiency Policy Options• New buildings:
• Building energy codes
• Building labeling and rating (mandatory)
• Voluntary above-code programs
• Existing Buildings
• Time of sale:
• Rating/labeling
• Mandatory upgrades
• Financing/voluntary upgrades
• Appliance/equipment standards
• Elective retrofits: audits, incentives, financing
• Public Buildings
• Construction standards
• Existing buildings savings targets
• Financing mechanisms
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State Efficiency Policy Options• Tax incentives (can affect new or existing buildings)
• Income tax credits/deductions
• Sales tax exemptions
• Utility-sector policies (can affect all buildings markets)
• Energy Efficiency Resource Standards
• Public Benefits Funds
• Integrated Resource Planning
• Ratemaking policies
• Pricing and rates
• Revenue decoupling
• Shareholder earnings
• Utility-sector policies typically include customer program
offerings
• Programs provide various bundles of incentives, technical
assistance, and information to help overcome barriers
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State Policy Steps to Support
Customer Efficiency Programs
Review/reform utility sector regulation and
ratemaking to encourage efficiency investment
Make efficiency a long-term resource planning
commitment
Draw on peer experience from other states
Define the most appropriate program delivery
model
Set clear goals and incentives
Use evaluation for continuous improvement
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Contact Information
202-862-1179
1725 Eye St. NW, 10th floor
Washington, DC 20006