Energy Efficiency Energy Efficiency Assumptions in theAssumptions in theWIRAB Low Carbon WIRAB Low Carbon

CaseCase

Thomas CarrThomas CarrWestern Interstate Energy BoardWestern Interstate Energy Board

July 30, 2008July 30, 2008Studies Work Group MeetingStudies Work Group Meeting

Portland, ORPortland, OR

OverviewOverview PurposePurpose: Model 20% energy efficiency (EE) : Model 20% energy efficiency (EE)

consistent with the WGA’s Clean and consistent with the WGA’s Clean and Diversified Energy InitiativeDiversified Energy Initiative

1.1. Identify the aggregate WECC-wide annual Identify the aggregate WECC-wide annual energy (GWh) path with 20% EE energy (GWh) path with 20% EE incorporating existing and future EE gains.incorporating existing and future EE gains.

2.2. Allocate the annual energy EE impacts for Allocate the annual energy EE impacts for the load bubbles in the TEPPC model the load bubbles in the TEPPC model consistent with the aggregate WECC-wide consistent with the aggregate WECC-wide 20% EE target.20% EE target.

3.3. Represent EE impacts on load profiles. Represent EE impacts on load profiles.

Studies ReviewedStudies Reviewed

CDEAC Energy Efficiency Task Force CDEAC Energy Efficiency Task Force Report, Jan. 2006Report, Jan. 2006

CDEAC Transmission Task Force CDEAC Transmission Task Force Report, May 2006.Report, May 2006.

California Energy Commission, California Energy Commission, Scenario Analyses of California’s Scenario Analyses of California’s Electricity SystemElectricity System, June 2007., June 2007.

Lawrence Berkeley National Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Laboratory, Energy Efficiency in Energy Efficiency in Western Utility Resource PlansWestern Utility Resource Plans, Aug. , Aug. 2006.2006.

1. Identify the aggregate 1. Identify the aggregate WECC-wide annual energy WECC-wide annual energy (GWh) path with 20% EE (GWh) path with 20% EE incorporating existing and incorporating existing and future EE gains.future EE gains.

CDEAC Energy CDEAC Energy Efficiency Task ForceEfficiency Task Force Analyzed the potential for Analyzed the potential for

attaining the WGA goal of 20% attaining the WGA goal of 20% energy efficiency by 2020energy efficiency by 2020– WGA 18-state footprint larger than WGA 18-state footprint larger than

the Western Interconnectionthe Western Interconnection– Evaluated EE impacts using EIA’s Evaluated EE impacts using EIA’s

NEMS modelNEMS model

CDEAC EE TF ScenariosCDEAC EE TF Scenarios

Reference scenarioReference scenario: EIA’s 2005 Reference : EIA’s 2005 Reference Case, applied to WGA states, modified by:Case, applied to WGA states, modified by:– 2005 Federal energy bill and EPA’s Energy Star 2005 Federal energy bill and EPA’s Energy Star

programsprograms Current Activities scenarioCurrent Activities scenario: accounts for : accounts for

estimated impacts of ongoing and recently estimated impacts of ongoing and recently enacted policies and programs at the state, enacted policies and programs at the state, regional and utility levels.regional and utility levels.– Estimated savings from current or committed policies, Estimated savings from current or committed policies,

i.e. DSM programs, building codes, appliance standardsi.e. DSM programs, building codes, appliance standards Best Practices scenarioBest Practices scenario: assumes adoption of : assumes adoption of

“best practices” in the 18 WGA states“best practices” in the 18 WGA states– Survey of best EE programs and policies in 18 WGA Survey of best EE programs and policies in 18 WGA

statesstates– Estimated savings from each of the “best practices” Estimated savings from each of the “best practices” – Derived total savings if adopted across all 18 WGA Derived total savings if adopted across all 18 WGA

statesstates

CDEAC Energy CDEAC Energy Efficiency Task ForceEfficiency Task Force

Apply CDEAC EE Task Apply CDEAC EE Task Force Scenarios to WECC Force Scenarios to WECC LoadsLoads

CDEAC Energy Task Force1.39% 1.90% 1.30% 0.50% 0.363%

TEPPC-2017 Reference

Current Activities

Best Practices

20% Target

1995 689,8851996 721,5961997 734,6141998 742,8921999 754,4302000 786,0872001 758,8372002 792,1372003 795,1612004 816,0792005 831,5702006 862,3572007 886,933 886,9332008 900,369 903,785 898,463 891,368 890,1532009 913,805 920,957 910,143 895,825 893,3842010 927,241 938,455 921,975 900,304 896,6272011 940,677 956,285 933,961 904,805 899,8822012 954,113 974,455 946,102 909,329 903,1482013 967,548 992,970 958,402 913,876 906,4272014 980,984 1,011,836 970,861 918,445 909,7172015 994,420 1,031,061 983,482 923,037 913,0192016 1,007,856 1,050,651 996,267 927,653 916,3332017 1,021,292 1,070,613 1,009,219 932,291 919,6602018 1,034,728 1,090,955 1,022,338 936,952 922,9982019 1,048,164 1,111,683 1,035,629 941,637 926,3492020 1,061,600 1,132,805 1,049,092 946,345 929,711

Actual

Year

Forecast

Percentage Reduction from Reference CaseTEPPC-2017

Current Activities

Best Practices

20% Target

2011 1.21% 1.79% 4.24% 4.67%2012 1.66% 2.39% 5.69% 6.27%2013 2.13% 3.00% 7.16% 7.90%2014 2.63% 3.61% 8.65% 9.55%2015 3.14% 4.22% 10.17% 11.23%2016 3.68% 4.84% 11.70% 12.93%2017 4.25% 5.46% 13.26% 14.66%2018 4.83% 6.08% 14.84% 16.41%2019 5.43% 6.71% 16.44% 18.20%2020 6.06% 7.34% 18.06% 20.01%

WECC Loads and EE Potential

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

1,100,000

1,200,000

Year

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

GWh

Yea

r

Actual

TEPPC-2017

Reference

Current Activities

Best Practices

20% Target

2.2. Allocate the annual energy Allocate the annual energy EE impacts for the load EE impacts for the load bubbles in the TEPPC model bubbles in the TEPPC model consistent with the consistent with the aggregate WECC-wide 20% aggregate WECC-wide 20% EE target.EE target.

=> 919,660 GWh in 2017=> 919,660 GWh in 2017

CDEAC Transmission TF modeled CDEAC Transmission TF modeled the High EE Case from SSG-WI Ref the High EE Case from SSG-WI Ref CaseCaseCDEAC High Efficiency Case - Energy Loads and Peak DemandsDec 15 Ref Case 2015 Case 2015 Case CDEAC Energy CDEAC Peak High Efficiency Case High Efficiency CaseState/ProvinceSSG-WI BubblesEnergy MWh Peak MW % reduc MWHr ReducMW Reduc% Reduc New Energy New Peak % Energy % PeakArizona 18.5% 3364 MWHr MW

Arizona 104,761,526 22,626 19,380,882 3,327 85,380,644 19,299 81.50% 85.30%Wapa L.C. 1,590,561 252 294,254 37 1,296,307 215 81.50% 85.30%Total 106,352,087 22,878 19,675,136 3,364 14.70% 86,676,951 19,514

New Mexico 14.90% 806New Mexico 27,245,822 4,730 4,059,627 806 17.04% 23,186,195 3,924 85.10% 82.96%

Nevada 19.10% 1,578Sierra 11,728,413 1,995 2,240,127 340 9,488,286 1,655 80.90% 82.98%Nevada 29,345,006 7,276 5,604,896 1,238 23,740,110 6,038 80.90% 82.98%Total 41,073,419 9,271 7,845,023 1,578 17.02% 33,228,396 7,693

Colorado 16.40% 2,143Col E 62,135,625 10,727 10,190,243 1,961 51,945,383 8,766 83.60% 81.72%Col W 6,440,916 993 1,056,310 182 5,384,606 811 83.60% 81.72%Total 68,576,541 11,720 11,246,553 2,143 18.28% 57,329,988 9,577

Utah 16.60% 1,103UT N 42,173,311 7,999 7,000,770 936 35,172,541 7,063 83.40% 88.30%UT S 6,057,463 1,189 1,005,539 139 5,051,924 1,050 83.40% 88.30%IPP 0 1 0 0 0 1 83.40% 88.30%BONZ 1,242,519 237 206,258 28 1,036,261 209 83.40% 88.30%Total 49,473,293 9,426 8,212,567 1,103 11.70% 41,260,726 8,323

Wyoming 13.70% 483B Hill 6,588,272 972 902,593 157 5,685,679 815 86.30% 83.83%BHB 3,695,185 506 506,240 82 3,188,945 424 86.30% 83.83%LRS 3,996,419 581 547,509 94 3,448,910 487 86.30% 83.83%SW WYO 4,553,805 596 623,871 96 3,929,934 500 86.30% 83.83%WYO 2,454,859 331 336,316 54 2,118,543 277 86.30% 83.83%JB 0 1 0 0 0 1 86.30% 83.83%Total 21,288,540 2,987 2,916,530 483 16.17% 18,372,010 2,504

Idaho 5.80% 297IDAHO 18,631,181 3,694 1,080,608 214 17,550,573 3,480 94.20% 94.20%KGB 6,826,263 1,429 395,923 83 6,430,340 1,346 94.20% 94.20%Total 25,457,444 5,123 1,476,532 297 5.80% 23,980,912 4,826

Montana 5.00% 158MONTANA 10,807,468 1,698 540,373 158 10,267,095 1,540 95.00% 90.70%YLW TL 0 1 0 0 0 1 95.00% 90.70%Total 10,807,468 1,699 540,373 158 9.30% 10,267,095 1,541

Oregon 4.50% 491Washington 5.00% 957

NW-EAST 74,310,368 12,355 4.85% 3,604,053 591 70,706,315 11,764 95.15% 95.22%NW-WEST 107,629,066 17,913 4.85% 5,220,010 857 102,409,056 17,056 95.15% 95.22%Total 181,939,434 30,268 8,824,063 1,448 4.78% 173,115,371 28,820

Alberta 0 0ALBERTA 77,291,069 10,794 0 0 0.00% 77,291,069 10,794 100.00% 100.00%

British Columbia 0 0B.C. 74,158,753 12,457 0 0 0.00% 74,158,753 12,457 100.00% 100.00%

California 7% 3,964IMPERIAL 4,212,776 1,091 294,894 63 3,917,882 1,028 93.00% 94.20%LADWP 33,314,726 6,249 2,332,031 363 30,982,695 5,886 93.00% 94.20%PG&E_BAY 51,987,840 10,919 3,639,149 633 48,348,691 10,286 93.00% 94.20%PG&E_VLY 79,993,555 19,549 5,599,549 1,134 74,394,006 18,415 93.00% 94.20%SANDIEGO 22,962,706 5,058 1,607,389 293 21,355,317 4,765 93.00% 94.20%SOCALIF 134,936,173 25,462 9,445,532 1,477 125,490,641 23,985 93.00% 94.20%Total 327,407,776 68,328 22,918,544 3,964 5.80% 304,489,232 64,364

Mexico 0 0MEXICO-C 15,278,260 3,209 0 0 0.00% 15,278,260 3,209 100.00% 100.00%

Total 1,026,349,906 192,890 87,714,948 15,344 938,634,958 177,546Percent Reduction 8.55% 7.95%

CEC Scenarios AnalysisCEC Scenarios Analysis

Scenarios of high EEScenarios of high EE– Case 1B = existing requirementsCase 1B = existing requirements– Case 3A = high EE in CACase 3A = high EE in CA– Case 3B = high EE in rest of WECCCase 3B = high EE in rest of WECC

FeaturesFeatures– Detailed analysis of EE potential in CA Detailed analysis of EE potential in CA

IOUs, adjustment for POUs. Itron StudyIOUs, adjustment for POUs. Itron Study– CDEAC EE assumed for rest of WECC with CDEAC EE assumed for rest of WECC with

proportional adjustment for all areasproportional adjustment for all areas

CEC Analysis of EE Potential CEC Analysis of EE Potential in Californiain California

Figure F.2: Impact of EE Scenarios on Forecasted Sales

250,000

260,000

270,000

280,000

290,000

300,000

310,000

320,000

330,000

340,000

350,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

GW

h

Pre EE 1B3A 3D3E

CEC Analysis of EE by IOUs & CEC Analysis of EE by IOUs & POUsPOUs

Table F.9: – California Transarea Percentage Savings for 2020

2020 Savings Percent Transarea

Assigned IOU

Discount Factor Business

as Usual Current Technology Economic Potential

North of Path 15 PG&E 10.08% 14.84% Zone Path 26 PG&E 10.08% 14.84% SCE Area SCE 8.93% 13.39% SDG&E SDG&E 11.35% 11.35% SMUD PG&E 25% 7.56% 11.13% LADWP SCE 25% 6.70% 10.04% IID SCE 50% 4.67% 6.70% SF PG&E 10.08% 14.84%

Apply EE% Targets to TEPPC Apply EE% Targets to TEPPC Load AreasLoad Areas

WECC Loads Adjusted to Attain 2017 Energy Efficiency TargetConsistent with 20% Energy Efficiency by 2020

Energy (GWh)2017 0.7275

TEPPC Load Forecast

EE % Reduction

EE Reduction Net Load

(GWh) (%) (GWh) (GWh)California

CaliforniaPG&E_BAY 52,884 7.30% 3,863 49,021PG&E_VLY 60,505 7.09% 4,292 56,213SCE 118,614 7.05% 8,362 110,252SDGE 24,267 6.31% 1,532 22,735LDWP 32,302 5.65% 1,826 30,476SMUD 23,552 10.14% 2,388 21,164IID 5,032 3.69% 186 4,846TIDC 3,261 5.93% 193 3,068

Total CA 320,417 7.07% 22,642 297,775

Northwest 7.00%Oregon

PACW 21,308 1,492 19,816PGN 25,170 1,762 23,408

WashingtonAVA 16,839 1,179 15,660BPA 52,393 3,668 48,725PSE 27,236 1,907 25,329SCL 10,533 737 9,796TPWR 5,707 399 5,308CHPD 4,609 323 4,286DOPD 1,889 132 1,757GCPD 5,387 377 5,010

Total NW 171,071 11,975 159,096

Southwest 14.00%Arizona

APS 42,260 5,916 36,344SRP 40,047 5,607 34,440TEP 15,426 2,160 13,266WALC 13,114 1,836 11,278

New MexicoPNM 18,026 2,524 15,502EPE 10,552 1,477 9,075

NevadaNEVP 32,926 4,610 28,316SPP 13,470 1,886 11,584

Total SW 185,821 26,015 159,806

Rockies 14.00%Colorado

PSC 50,398 7,056 43,342WACM 28,098 3,934 24,164

WyomingSW WYO 6,955 974 5,981CENTL WYO 2,425 340 2,086BIG HORN 2,103 294 1,809

IdahoFAR EAST 2,732 382 2,350GOSH 2,028 284 1,744MAGIC VLY 4,983 698 4,285TREAS VLY 11,531 1,614 9,917

MontanaNWMT 11,176 1,565 9,611WAUW 588 82 506

UtahUT N 33,064 4,629 28,435UT S 3,771 528 3,243

Total Rockies 159,852 22,379 137,473

Canada 10.00%Alberta AESO 92,677 9,268 83,409BC BCTC 71,675 7,168 64,508Total Canada 164,352 16,435 147,917

Mexcio 10.00%Mexcio CFE 19,779 1,978 17,801

WECC 1,021,292 101,424 919,868

Target point in 2017on path for WECC 20% EE in 2020 919,660

LBNL: EE in Western LBNL: EE in Western Utility IRPsUtility IRPs Analysis of 14 western IOUs Analysis of 14 western IOUs

treatment of energy efficiency treatment of energy efficiency resources in integrated resource resources in integrated resource plans (IRPs)plans (IRPs)

Evaluate how this information can Evaluate how this information can be used to measure the progress be used to measure the progress of the WGA EE goalof the WGA EE goal

3. Represent EE 3. Represent EE impacts on load impacts on load profiles.profiles. PromodPromod

– Adjustment mechanism to adjust Adjustment mechanism to adjust load profileload profile

CEC approachCEC approach– Detailed profiles derived for EE Detailed profiles derived for EE

changeschanges– CEC represented EE as supply CEC represented EE as supply

resourceresource