Energy Demand forecasting tool_Grammatikopoulos-Panapakidis

Entrepreneurial Conference, 27, 28 and May 31, 2013, Thessaloniki

Technical Chamber of Greece / Department of Central Macedonia

Innovative tool for Energy Demand forecasting

and management of the Electrical Load System on

Smart Grid Environment for Energy Efficiency

Energy Demand forecasting and management of the Electrical Load System on Smart Grid Environment for Energy Efficiency

Athanasios Grammatikopoulos Ioannis Panapakidis

Mechanical Engineer

MSc in Energy

ΑΜ: 107751

Electrical Engineer & Computer Engineer

PhD

ΑΜ: 109263

Member of Standing Committee of Energy

TEE/TKM

Member of Standing Committee of Energy

TEE/TKM

Mob: +306942011797 Mob: +306977060253

E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]








Global energy consumption projection increases by 53% between 2008 and 2035

Electrical energy industry continuously converges towards a competitive

framework, replacing the traditional monopolistic landscape

The liberalization of the electricity market brought the disaggregation of

production, transport and distribution of EE. It is the foundation for competitiveness

between power production companies and suppliers

Smart Grid → Coordination of necessities and capabilities of producers, system

management operators and final consumers

The coordination of the energy system aims at these optimal function, minimizing

the cost and environmental impact and maximizing flexibility, stability and reliability

Characteristics of modern environment of the Electricity market




The Core of energy forecasting and management load tool

Load Forecasting and management

Tool

STOP - DAMAGE

LARGE PRODUCTION

UNITS

EFFICIENT PROGRAMMING

ELECTRICAL ENERGY PRICES

SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCE

ENERGY SERVICE

COMPANIES (ESCOs)

FUEL PRICES– OPERATIONAL

UNIT MANAGEMENT

RISK MANAGEMENT

DESIGN OF THE MARKET -

IMPORT RES




-high potentiality for energy savings- Energy performance of buildings

The energy performance of buildings is a key focus area of the current

scientific and legislation framework of the European Union.

According to technical reports, there is a considerably high potential for

energy savings in heating, cooling and lighting in public buildings.

The Directive 2012/27/EU established a common framework of

measures for the promotion of energy efficiency within the EU.

The EPBD provides a first step to access the energy performance of

buildings and propose effective measures.

A proper demand pattern analysis is needed for:

To identify the best practices related to energy efficiency.

To establish benchmarking procedures for a variety of building types.




1. Energy load forecasting through Artificial Intelligence

Computational Tool with ANN (Artificial neural networks) in MatLAB

environment

Accurate energy load forecasting bring benefits to efficient planning

integration of production units in the system, improve the safety of the

energy system and risk management of power companies.

Accurate estimation of power energy load and energy prices are essential

objective for the mechanisms of decision-making in the light of the

growing needs of Electrical energy system operation

Analysis levels: National System, Distribution MV, Final consumer


INNOVATIVE TOOL OF LOAD FORECASTING - "OPERATIONAL PILLARS "



15

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Lo

ad

(G

W)

Hours

Peak Demand - High generated cost of Kwh Peak Demand - High

generated cost of Kwh

Low Demand- low generated cost of kWh

Low Demand- low generated cost of kWh Load curve of the Greek system on

15/05/2012

2. Demand Response


INNOVATIVE TOOL OF LOAD FORECASTING - "OPERATIONAL PILLARS "



Load Data collection and processing

Definition of electricity market and energy mixture

Design of dynamic pricing (tariffs ) in correspondence with load profiles

Profitability = Sale - Purchase - Network Charges

INNOVATIVE TOOL OF ENERGY LOAD FORECASTING - "OPERATIONAL PILLARS "




INNOVATIVE TOOL OF ENERGY LOAD FORECASTING - “SMART GRID"




Power energy companies (public and private)

Electrical energy suppliers (Retailers)

Energy Service Companies (ESCO's)

Management of transmission and distribution network

Decision makers of energy policy

Tool Features

User-friendly, high-configurable, flexible

Consume small amount of computational resources

Easily integrated in Companies portfolio

Can be Used by...




-Ύπαρξη αγοράς-

Crucial due to liberalization and deregulation of

energy markets

N.3855 / 2010 → Greek legislation harmonized with

the Directive 2006/32 / EC “Energy efficiency in end-

users and energy services"

EU Directive 2009/72/EC aims to set up joint

regulations for country members on the production,

transport and distribution of gas and electricity. The

goal is a competitive, secure and environmentally

sustainable electricity market

Retail market development with the integration of

Smart Meters. The corresponding legislation refers to

Directives 2004/22 / EC and 2006/32 / EC

ENERGY MARKET




Extroversion

Versatile tool with compatible use and commercial applicability in Greece and abroad

Territory Benefits

Programming optimization of use of domestic fuels and renewable energy that can lead to

the reduction of polluting emissions, increase reliability and network security

Dispersed Energy resources Management topically in cities and regions - A region can be

driven in Energy independence toward a Smart Grid

Data Exploitation - Optimal sales tariff of electrical energy - Price Saving for Private

consumer

Dynamic tariffs - Changing consumer behavior through cutting peak loads and load shift

during periods of low demand - Economic benefits for the producers and suppliers

WHAT ARE THE BENEFITS?




Environmental Benefits

Planning optimization for the use of domestic fuels and

renewable energy that can lead to emissions reduction ,

increase reliability and network security

Assessment of energy efficiency measures

Electrical load data analysis that provides information for

the emissions per Building and Activity. The data can be

used by national and EU bodies.

Create a portfolio for emissions of public buildings in

order to analyze and reduce

WHAT ARE THE BENEFITS?




-Ύπαρξη αγοράς-

INNOVATION AND CONTRIBUTION


Efficient powerful tool, towards the acknowledgement of the impact of values, such as Brent Oil Price, Heating Oil Price and the Power System Load

A new Computer tool in order to perform energy demand load forecasting depending on the requirements of the market

Can be used for day-to-day optimal decision on the economic and secure operation of the power system offering an extra adaptability according to the input information and targeted values

Electricity Production in the interconnected system - Hellenic Transmission System Operator S.A., Greece



A computational tool that leads Energy Companies to profitability into the

Liberalized market

Reduce Operating costs

Efficiency Optimization

Forecasting Energy Demand




Energy Demand forecasting tool_Grammatikopoulos-Panapakidis

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