ENERGY DEMAND AND EMISSIONS FROM TRANSPORTATION SECTOR IN MALAYSIA FROM 2003 TO 2025

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0 Assignment Title: ENERGY DEMAND AND EMISSIONS FROM TRANSPORTATION SECTOR IN MALAYSIA FROM 2003 TO 2025 Edited by: Emad Sadeghinezhad KGH080002 Lecturer: T.M.I. Mahlia Academic Year-(Semester): Session 2008/2009-(Sem. 2)

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ENERGY DEMAND AND EMISSIONS FROMTRANSPORTATION SECTOR IN MALAYSIA FROM 2003 TO 2025

Transcript of ENERGY DEMAND AND EMISSIONS FROM TRANSPORTATION SECTOR IN MALAYSIA FROM 2003 TO 2025

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Assignment Title:

ENERGY DEMAND AND EMISSIONS FROM TRANSPORTATION SECTOR IN MALAYSIA FROM

2003 TO 2025

Edited by: Emad Sadeghinezhad

KGH080002

Lecturer:

T.M.I. Mahlia

Academic Year-(Semester): Session 2008/2009-(Sem. 2)

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Contents List of Tables 2 List of Figures 3 Abstract 4 Nomenclature 5 1. Introduction 6 3. Survey Data 7 4. Methodology 8 5. Results and Discussions 13 6. Conclusions 18 Reference 19

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List of tables

Table 1, Final energy use by transportation sector 7 Table 2, Transportation sector energy use based on fuel types (ktoe) 7 Table 3, emission from fossil fuel per GJ energy use by transportation sector 8 Table 4, predicted data for the years 2005 to 2030- Fuel Type (ktoe) 10 Table 5, emissions produced by fuels 15

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List of Figures

Figure 1, ratio of fuels-all of fuels exist but only 3 of them are visible-unit 11 Figure 2, the curves of Petrleum, Diesel and ATF-unit (ktoe) 12 Figure 3, the curves of Fuel Oil, NG and Electricite-unit (ktoe) 12 Figure 4, demand of energy with today’s policy 13 Figure 5, proportion of consumption of fuels in 2005 14 Figure 6, proportion of consumption of fuels in 2030 16 Figure 7, Pattern of emissions production by transportation in Malaysia 17 Figure 8; grow of CO2 in duration of next 25 years 17

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Abstract:

Malaysia as a developing country is reported to perform well in economy and industrialization. As the same time, the usage of energy is increasing year by year. Energy is a key component in Malaysia’s economy, as the development and utilization of energy resources have contributed and will continue to contribute to the industrialization of the economy and the socio economic welfare of the people. This study will focus on the road transport in Malaysia. There is a need to focus on this sector as rapid industrialization, high economic and population growth have accelerated the ownership of motorised vehicle.we will show in this study energy demand and emissions from transportation sector in malaysia from 2003 to 2025.

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Nomenclature

c, k constant values Emi total emission for a unit of transportation sector in year i (kg, ton) TFin Type of Fuel n in year i (ktoe) EFpn Emission p from fossil Fuel type n (kg/GJ) x year predicted–year start y predicted value

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1. Introduction:

As all are aware, in Malaysia, the transport sector is the largest consumption of the petroleum products. It is because of the use of the petrol as a source to move their vehicles. A study conducted by Pusat Tenaga Malaysia estimated that the share of final energy use by the transport sector will decline from 36.2% in 2000 to about 28% of total energy use by the year 2020. It is anticipated that the market for private vehicles will reach saturation point and at the same time there will be an increase in the use of public transport. The share of freight transport is also expected to increase. As a whole, consumption of fuel by the transport sector will still increase but at a slower phase. The transportation sector not only consumes a big portion of petroleum products, it is also the largest polluter. Emissions from vehicles contain carbon dioxide (CO2), hydrocarbon (HC), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxide (NOx), sulfur oxide (SOx), particulate matter (PM) and other chemicals. Aside from the emissions of SOx and PM, mobile sources dominate the emissions of NOx, HC and particularly CO. The explosion in demand for the transportation of both people and goods is one of the causes that led to high growth rates in demand for oil products. In most Asian countries this growth can be expected to be more rapid than growth of the economy as a whole. There has been little success in reducing energy consumption and emissions by mobile sources. It is important to plan and undertake various steps to prevent future adverse impacts of transport energy use on the environment and public health.

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2. Survey data:

The data used for this study are the final energy used by transportation sector data, types of fuels that were used in previous years and CO2, SO2, NOx and CO emission from fossil fuel which use by transportation sector. All of the survey data are shown in Tables 1, 2, and 3. To change the units of data together we can use this term :{ 1 toe = 10 Gcal = 41.868 GJ}

(Table 1, Final energy use by transportation sector) Year petrol diesel ATF fuel oil NG Elect 1980 1296 847 250 - 0 0 1985 2057 1032 386 - 0 0 1990 2889 1826 628 41 0 0 1995 4477 2168 1158 17 5 0 1996 5161 2417 1333 32 4 1 1997 5574 3106 1437 75 5 1 1998 5849 2311 1618 9 4 1 1999 6778 3174 1423 13 0 4 2000 6378 4103 1574 4 7 4 2001 6820 4534 1762 5 14 5.17 2002 6940 4680 1785 4 28 4

(Table 2, Transportation sector energy use based on fuel types (Ktoe)

Year Total(Ktoe)1980 2398 1985 3477 1990 5387 1995 7827 1996 8951 1997 10201 1998 9793 1999 11393 2000 12071 2001 13137 2002 13442

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Emission Fuel CO2 (kg/GJ) SO2 (g/GJ) NOx (g/GJ) CO (g/GJ)

PETROL 73.00 2.28 1368.76 3490.86 DIESEL 74.00 2.34 284.55 102.66 ATF 72.00 2.30 310.16 132.06 NG 53.90 0.00 488.00 214.00

(Table 3, CO2, SO2, NOx and CO emission from fossil fuel per GJ )

3. Methodology: This analysis is generally based on modelling methodologies to figure

out the potential emissions from transportation in Malaysia in the future. For this purpose, firstly, the energy demand and types of fuels use in transportation sector should be recognized. Some of the data are already available but other data have to be calculated with admiration to the country energy consumption trend. Transport infrastructure in Malaysia has been growing at a phenomenal rate. The method used to estimate the rest of the calculation data is polynomial curve fitting. The method is an attempt to describe the relationship between variable x as a function of available data and a response y, which seeks to find some smooth curve that best fits the data, but does not necessarily pass through any data points. Mathematically, a polynomial of order k in x is expressed in the following form [5]: (1)

The common gases include CO2, SO2, NOx and CO. The emission pattern of transportation can be calculated by the following equation:

EMi = (TFi1 * EFp1+ TFi2 * EFp2+ TFi3 * EFp3+...+ TFin * EFpn)(2)

Whit these two initially equations the needed data can be extracted.

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4. Data Analysis: There are three types of data to be analysed for instance energy demand

data, consumption of different fuels and amount of GHGs emissions from each fuel. Demand of energy data is from about 3 decade ago till now, so I must anticipate future demand of energy with considering to the previous data. Based on the data shown in Table 1, using Eq. (1), the total energy demand in Malaysia from the year 2005 to 2030 can be predicted by the following equation:

2426.9 97.07x 20.084x 0.0515x-Y 23 +++= R²=0.9925 (3) Based on the data shown in Table 2, using Eq. (1), the fuel use in

transportation of Malaysia from the year 2005 to 2030 can be predicted. The amount of petroleum used for transportation in Malaysia can be predicted by the following equation:

1380303.33036.26576.0 23 +−+−= xxxY R²=0.9849(4)

The amount of diesel used in transportation in Malaysia can be

predicted by the following equation: 93.78282.154431.15761.0 23 ++−= xxxY R²=0.9407(5)

The amount of ATF used in transportation in Malaysia can be predicted

by the following equation: 46.194729.405752.1 2 ++−= xxY R²=0.9688

(6) The amount of fuel oil used in transportation in Malaysia can be

predicted by the following equation: 207.397561.83062.10494.0 23 +−+−= xxxY R²=0.4233

(7)

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The amount of Natural gas (NG) used in transportation in Malaysia can be predicted by the following equation:

0856.10084.23075.00119.0 23 −+−= xxxY R²=0.7469 (8)

The amount of electronic engine used in transportation in Malaysia can

be predicted by the following equation: 0776.00148.00174.00012.0 23 ++−= xxxY R²=0.8468

(9) The results of the predicted data based on Eqs. (3) to (9) from the years

2005 to 2030 are tabulayed in !!!!! !!����������������M������$�%������������ � � �,�9 �,� ���(�� �� ����� ��� �,�� �,�9� �� �9� ��1����� M�������������,����������,�(��������,��,�(������������������,���,�9�������������,���������������,��������(������%,����������������9��������� ��1������ ������1�����������������%,����������1������� ���������������������1������������������������������2�����,�������1���������������%

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2017 30905 6615 23933 3858 0 255 38 2018 32291 6104 26141 4017 0 284 41 2019 33705 5514 28492 4179 0 315 45 2020 35148 4841 30990 4344 0 349 50 2021 36619 4083 33640 4512 0 385 54 2022 38116 3234 36446 4684 0 422 59 2023 39642 2293 39413 4858 0 463 64 2024 41194 1254 42546 5036 0 506 69 2025 42772 116 45848 5217 0 551 75

(Table 4, predicted data for the years 2003 to 2025- Fuel Type (ktoe) )

0%

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23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45

ElectricityNGFuel OilATFDieselPetrol

(Figure 1, ratio of fuels-all of fuels exist but only 3 of them are visible-unit (ktoe))

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0

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(Figure 2, the curves of fuels-unit (ktoe))

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(Figure 3, the curves of Fuel Oil, NG and Electricite-unit (ktoe))

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(Figure 4, the curves of Petrleum, Diesel and ATF-unit (ktoe))

5. Results and Discussions

After extracting new data from the primary data now must discuss about them and obtain useful information from them to fide what we should do in the future. Energy demand, fuels types and emissions are three objects that are important to consider in this study.If we look to the table (4) and suppose to grow up of the consumption of energy in the future years it is obviously this huge amount of energy which use consume just in transportation has some very unsuitable efficiency on the environment and human. If today’s policy continue in future the demand of energy for transportation sector increase about 3 times-from 14657 (ktoe) in 2003 to 42777 (ktoe) in 2025. The diagram of energy demand shown in fig. (4). As it is shown the slope of increasing of energy demand is approximately constant and we know the best way to decrease this slope is optimising the consumption of energy. It folloes that a deep change must accure in the model of consuming energy in this country.

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Total (ktoe)

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(Figure 5, demand of energy with today’s policy)

In these days the fuels are used by the transportation devices consist of 6 types but only three types of them are major-Petroleum and Diesel. This study show till 2025 the consumption of petroleum increase 3 times in compare of 2003 and consumption of diesel grow about 5 times. One of the !!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!! !!!! !! !!! !!!! !!!! !!! !!!!! !!����,�1��1����������������(���������� �,���������������,����������% &�M������$�9���� ��� �,�� ���1������� �� ����� �� �������� �����1�������� ��+������� ��������� �� �,��� ����; 7��������0 )����� ��� ��% &� 9� ���1��� �,�1��1�����������������������55 �����������5�#9�M����,���,�1�������� ������1���� �� ����� �� ��� ���������0 N��� 9� ��� ��� �,� 1��������� �������)�������������������,�1���������������������1��������%&���(�����1�������,���,���(��������,�����,����������������1����������9��� ��(���1�� 1����� �� ����� ��9 ���,�������� �� ������ ��� (�,����� �����,�� 1��� �� �����1�������� ������ ���, ��@����� ������ ������� ���� �������������������%K������9��������������,���,���������������9�������� �(������� �� �,��� ����� �� ���� �� �,��9��� �� ��� ,��,�1����� ��� ������������2�+�������%

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from 2003 to 2025. As a result of �hi���b��w�Mind�h�����n���CO�h��big(��i��i�nwi�h��h��g�����nd �h��������������� �h�� i����� �h�n��h���%h�(��i��i�n�����i��i�n�����h�wninMig���(6�%

On �h� ��h�� h�nd �hi� h�g� ����n� �� ��i��i�n� N��� in �h����n�1�����i�n ������ i� n�� ����1��b�� ��� ��d�� �nd i� i� w���h ��� n���������%h���h��g�����i2��O������d��������%��i�:��n�1���n�i�������id��in% "�w 1��i�� i� n�������� ��� wh��� �� �h� ���n��i�� �h�� h�(� �i�i������n�1�����i�n�������i2�+�����i�%

Year gas emission from fossil and fuel (Ton)

CO� �O� "�6 CO�55 !# /555$ $!�* #$ * / $$$�/#5�55! !-'$�//! $#�- # *$�' $$#$$5#�55# #$//*#5' $' ! ##/*!' $$-#$$��55' ###!*�-� $*!' #-$!#' $�$!!-/�55* #/�''5'* $-'� '5�$$ $� -*!/�55- ' $#*'5# $/-# '�$#*' $�#*!5-�55/ '*��#'!$ �$$� ' /*5$ $�'//-$�5$5 *$!* /�$ ��!' '#' !- $�*#/-!�5$$ *#/5'$/5 � -# '*$ *! $�*!/ $�5$� -5#�'$/$ �# 5 '-!' * $�'' *�5$ -# *'*5 �'-$ '/#// $�!/*$-�5$! /5 !! *� �- - *5# 5� $��!#-/�5$# /###55!$ 55� *$�!�� $$/5!''�5$' $55/#-!� $*$ *$*�5/ $$!'-'�

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2017 106573262 3348 719521 1093294 2018 112398304 3531 719217 1029276 2019 118437292 3720 716155 954324 2020 124693973 3917 710191 867953 2021 131172090 4120 701184 769677 2022 137875389 4330 688992 659013 2023 144807614 4548 673473 535475 2024 151972511 4773 654483 398578 2025 159373824 5005 631882 247838

(Table 5, emissions produced by fuels)

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(Figure 6, Pattern of emissions production by transportation in Malaysia)

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SO2

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(Figure 7, Pattern of SO2 production by transportation in Malaysia)

CO2

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(Figure 8; grow of CO2 in duration of next 22 years)

���m �h� M����� �-� �� �� �h�9� �h�� �h� ������ ���6��� �������� �� ������������h������������m1����m����1�������h�1���������������m�6������h��m���������������6����m��������h��������������m�(��������������������m1�����������1��������������%h�1���������8���������������������������������������������������������1��������m��h����������9�������������h������h���������������(����m���%

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6. Conclusions By evaluating the various data of consuming energy by transportation

systems and effects of that we are able to plan and develop new policy for future system of transportation. It is very important for us to think about the future world, our environment and health of human.

Emissions from transportation sector make up one of the largest

emissions for the country. Government intervention to abate these emissions is urgently needed now. The study also shows that switching from transportation fossil fuel to renewable fuel such as Fuel cell and Hybrid engines offers a solution and multiple benefits to the utilities, society and most importantly to protect the environment. The Malaysian government has to find ways to reduce these emissions, such as by introducing emissions taxation which can be used to finance renewable energy research projects or to replant trees in the rain forest of the country. The data from the study can be used as a basis for calculating cost benefit analysis for implementation of new renewable technologies for transportation and developing an emission abatement program in Malaysia.

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Reference 1. T.M.I. Mahlia,(2001) Emissions from electricity generation in Malaysia, Renewable

Energy 27 (2002) 293–300. 2. Deborah Gordon, Steering a New Course: Transportation, Energy, and the

Environment,NY, Dorling Kindersley, 1998. 3. NOx Removal. Branch Environmental Corp. Retrieved on 2007-12-26. 4. Schwartz P. The art of the long view: planning in an uncertain world. New York:

Doubleday, 1996. 5. Klienbaum DG. Applied regression analysis and other multivariable methods. USA: ITP Co., 1998